Saturday open thread: Domo arigato, Tadahito Iguchi

Today marks Beerleaguer's annual sojourn to Happy Valley to watch No. 25 Penn State try to knock off No. 1 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are the first No. 1 team to visit Beaver Stadium since 1989. Elsewhere, it's Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Fogg in Game 3 of the Fall Classic. Kevin Youkilis will sit for Boston, Terry Francona has announced. As for Phillies fodder, we haven't discussed Tadahito Iguchi yet. The Phillies reportedly discussed bringing him back as a third baseman next season, but Iguchi said he will pursue opportunities at second base, where a number of clubs, including the New York Mets, need help. Iguchi did an outstanding job filling in for Chase Utley manning second and batting second during the Phillies' run to the post-season.

Comments

[John Salmon]

Is there a reason Utley can't play third? It might well be a career-extending move, as the injury rate at second is higher.

It diodn't hurt A Rod a bit to move to third...even if Jeter probably should've been the one to make the move.

[Tom G, ballssticksstuff.com]

When Utley was still in the minors the Phils tried him at third, and it did not go very well at all. When Utley ages to the point he can't play second anymore, he'll either be a LF or more likely, a 1B.

[AWH]

John, they tried Utley at third in the minors. Apparently it didn't work. I think it's because they think his arm isn't goood enough to play of the left side of the infield, or maybe he couldn't get used to the hot corner. I don't remember exactly.

[AWH]

Sayonara Gooch! It would have been nice if you stayed! We'll probably see you at Shea next year.

[Andy]

From last thread -

1) @clout - on Bourn for Rauch, I agree. Bourn is about our only chip to play and acquiring a real end of game reliever would be the way to play it.

B) @BAP - on acquiring Andruw instead of springing for Rowand. I heard clout agreeing with you that it wouldn't be a bad idea. Andruw is much more a TTO guy lately, but he can flat out pick it in CF. Rowand's D was more effort than talent and, by the numbers, is becoming more pedestrian than we usually recognize. Putting Jones in our line-up at 4 between Uts and Howard would be downright scary, even if he's not raking and especially at CBP. Would you want to pitch with J-Roll or Vic on to Uts, Jones, Howard? Yikes.

From this thresd -
The numbers are available at B-Ref on Uts in the minors. He was an average, or only slightly below, #B. He would get better with practice and probably would eventually (say in a year) be better than Wes Helms. I do not view them, however, as a recommendation of the switch. he would have to consentrate on fielding a lot more during the season and it may hurt his offensive production.

I do truly wonder what Dobbs would do on his thrid time through the league seeing lefties. Really, his less than 50 ABs is a small sample size AND he has tended to get better his second full year at every level. If the big two are unavailable I might spend money on pitching and play Dobbs every day except against the toughest lefties.

In re: middle RPs - any thoughts on Riske? Some folks on MLB Trade Rumors thought he might be an option for the Phils.

[Andy]

Oh, in re Gooch:
He performed for the Phils above his career norms. I wonder how he would do over a full year in the Shea fishbowl.

[Andy]

clout's suggestion about Bourn also has me thinking about the Phils' secondary problem: there are not enough prospects in the system to offer as trade bait. Gio Gonzalez was one - we used him getting Freddy "Ha, Ha, the Trick's On You!" Garcia. We used up Matt Maloney (All the talent evaluators kind of thought had only a dicey chance of making the majors even though his peripherals were great.) on Kyle Lohse. What's left either isn't great or will be needed by the Phils soon. If we can find someone to give us something for Roberson, Golson, or Costanzo, (there are probably about two dozen others in this category) we should probably jump at it. But I wouldn't count on anybody really being interested.

My fear with Bourn, of course, is that when they look to make a deal, it will not Rauch we'll get, but Julio Mateo or Freddy Garcia. (Willie Montanez or John Buzhardt or Carl Henry.)

[AWH]

Actually, I'll probably be in the minority here, but assuming clout is right, and Bourne could potentially be an everyday player - hit for average, steal bases, run down gappers in the field - I'm not sure a relief pitcher, given the consensus agreement on how erratic they can be from year to year, is enough of a return on an everyday player.

Just a thought.

[John Salmon]

Gee, if CU can play second, he can play third. A 3B doesn't need a great arm.

I don't see Bourne as an everyday guy...no power, no smarts.

[Andy]

Just to put on the board what we're talking about here are Chase's fielding stats from his first year of A-ball when they tried him at 3B. Games, PO, Asssists, Errors, DPs, Fielding Pct., Range factor.

3B 123 88 224 28 17 .918 2.54

The range factor is not bad, but the errors are awful. The DPs and assists look reasonable. I'll look for some comparisons presently.

I still think it'd be better to keep him at 2B.

While someone might find Bourn of some value, I don't think he'll ever break .300 except in an extraordinary year. As clout was saying, it would be bad to lose him for a relief pitcher; but a top-line guy (not a mediocre middle reliever) would be filling a hole that truly needs filling.

[s97]

Hoping that Andy had a name mixup: We could do a lot worse than Willie Montanez in a trade. Had 4+ decent seasons with the 70's Phils, including an almost 30HR/100RBI first full season. You should have read the comments on Beerleaguer when they traded him for Garry Maddox...

[malcolm]

I live in the Scranton area. They tried Chase at 3B here and it was UGLY. He couldn't throw a runner out and routine ground outs. He always seemed to double clutch and you could tell he wasn't a 3B.

[John Salmon]

Uhh, 3B is the EASIER position. I doubt a now-mature player like CU would have the slighest problem there. In truth it should've been done when Polanco was still here, so we could avoid more of the Bell fiasco.

[Brian G]

Clout gets emotional attachments to players? I never would've guessed. I figured he just had them for arguments.

I agree with elliot. We're spending 7 and 10 mil for the 8th/9th, might as well spend 3 mil for the 7th. Our time to win is now.

And I think we're gonna regret not giving Rowand an Eric Byrnes type contract midseason. He's obviously helped a great deal by CBP, but he's still a good player that we could've gotten for a hometown bargain a few months ago. He also gives us insurance for when Burrell leaves next year.
Also, I'm not crazy about the overvaluation of draft picks, but if we sign him instead of Lowell (who's older), we get to keep our 1st rounder for sure.

[AWH]

"Our time to win is now."

Brian, that's something I think everyone agrees with, except maybe ownership and management.

The Red Sox seems to understand it. That's why they went all-in on Dice-K, and why, IMO, they will outbid any team for Lowell and Schilling this coming offseason.

They understand their time to wim is now. Manny will be 36 next season, and will begin to delcine if he hasn't already. Big Papi is in his 30s also, and will decline at some point. The one-two punch they represent doesn't come along in baseball very often.

Other one-two combos (and no, I'm not putting Manny/Papi on the same level) in baseball history that had great levels of success (winning) were Ruth/Gehrig, Mays/McCovey, Mantle/Maris...you get the idea.

Henry, Lucchesi and Epstein are smart enough to know the window will close on Manny/Papi at some point. They're also smart enough to know how rare a combo like that is, and the URGENCY to win while they still can. You saw that in their pursuit of Dice-K, even though they already had Beckett and Schilling, and young talent like Lester and Buchholz.

I'm not sure Giles/Montgomery possess the URGENCY to win while the core is in their prime, to surround Howard, Utley, Hamels and Burrell with enough talent to actually win the WS.

I'd wager to say most of you agree with me on that point.

[Andy]

s97
For Montanez we traded someone who had **career averages** over 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.

[CJ]

We're honestly discussing moving baseball's best 2nd baseman to third? Why? So we can get Tadahito Iguchi in the lineup?

This is NOT an A-Rod/Jeter situation. Iguchi did fine for us... but he's just not worth screwing with one of the league's absolute best players.

[Andy]

And really, we didn't even want Montanez; he was a toss in when the guy we traded for refused to move to Philadelphia.

[The Theory]

When Utley came up, defense was definitely his weak point. However, he has certainly shored that aspect up. I think that were they to try him at third he'd do a decent job... then would definitely get better. That is just the kind of guy he is.

That said, it won't happen. So my speculation saying that Utley would be fine means as much as the prior comments that he would muff it up horribly.

[Andy]

Here are some comparisons.
Level, games, PO, A, E, DP, FPct. RF
Rolen’s minor league career numbers.
AA/AAA 126 83 260 19 21 .948 2.72

Helm’s age 23 minor league year
AAA 124 75 220 15 24 .952 2.38

Dobb’s age 25 minor league year
AA/AAA 115 88 199 23 22 .926 2.50

Mike Lowell’s minor league totals
AA 65 48 120 14 10 .923 2.58
AAA 182 118 401 29 34 .947 2.85

I think it's pretty clear that Uts minor league experiment was closer as a 3B to Dobbs/Helms than to Lowell or...well no one is close to Rolen. I think if the choice is between moving him and messing with his mind to keep Gooch, or using the Dobbs/Helms platoon and maintain the best 2B in MLB, I'd go with the latter. Just doesn't make sense. You don't gain anything defensively (how much better a defender is Gooch than ts?), and you lose (at least with Dobbs against RHP) a little offense. I'd have to say: "Sayonara, baby."

[Andy]

s97
The year after Montanez hit his career high 30 HRs for the Phils, the guy they traded him for won the (AL) MVP.

[Redd]

I don't get why they didn't experiment with this during the season. It couldn't have been any worse than the dozens of times we stuck Helms out there...

[MG]

Andy brings up a good point about the lack of trade-ready prospects. If the Phils continue to insist on only being willing to pay $.80 or $.90 cents for players on the FA market, there ability to swing a big trade seems pretty limited too.

As for the Bourn for Rauch deal, I would almost guarantee that has no shot. Bowden always demands a high price in return. You would probably be talking Bourn and a mid-to-upper tier pitching prospect at least.

[clout]

Andy: About the only GM stupid enough to give us anything of value for the likes of Golson, Costanzo or Roberson would be Chuck LaMar of the Devil Rays, but unfortunately they fired him. I wonder where he wound up?

[Andy]

clout - LOL

[Andy]

clout - are there really no scouting staffs out there bad enough to consider Roberson based on his AA and AAA numbers? To someone who doesn't know better he looks as good as Bourn. Isn't there anyone we could fool?

[ae]

MG, your comment that trading Rauch would require "Bourn and a mid-to-upper tier pitching prospect" brings up an interesting point. to all the posters clamoring that Gillick overspend on mediocre relievers - why wouldn't you demand that Gillick make that trade? Rauch is worlds better than any reliever on our staff; maybe even including Myers. how serious are you, Brian/AWH/etc., when you say that the time to win is now? does that only extend to money, or does it extend to prospects as well?

[clout]

ae: For me, if it takes Bourn plus a pitching prospect, I'd do it, but I'd want to see what else that package could get. Unlike some here, I am not under any rosy illusions about Phillies prospects.

[DPatrone]

Ok so Gooch is as good as gone. So are Romero and Rowand. Guess what phans - we won't be get Lowell or Schilling either. We don't we ever hear what is being done if anything. All of our hopes and dreams about who is coming here to play are just that. No sense getting our hopes up. I've got a bab feeling about this off-season.

[Andy]

"I've got a bab feeling "
Patrone - you think we're gonna pick up Streissand? ;-)

ae, clout - I think it depends on who the "prospect" is. I think we gotta hold on to Carrasco, for instance; even though in other organizations he might be their 2 or 3 or 4 pitching prospect, he's our number 1 and best hope of actually groqwing a pitcher. I'm not sure about Happ or Matthieson. Happ could be a starter some day. Mathieson could be a really good reliever some day.

I doubt anyone would ask to include Savery or Drabek yet, who are completely unproven; and all of those big righties at Williamsport are basically unproven as well.

My question revolves around what if someone is asking for, like, Outmann or Carpenter. If the deal were Bourn and Carpenter for Rauch, I don't know if I'd do it.

[ae]

clout, I agree you'd see what else the package would get. Andy, I agree it would depend on who exactly the prospect was (I would assume Carrasco, despite his issues, is essentially untouchable because of his ceiling). but I think I'd rather explore that route than try to install an overpaid Romero as the de facto setup man.

[Andy]

ae - I actually think it needs to be a both/and. As bad as the bullpen is, it might be the best plan (if the Phils are serious about winning) to make some trade along those lines and also pursue a couple of (doubtlessly overpaid) free agent options. It would make no sense, for instance, for the Phils not to take a serious, overpriced run at Cordero and Rivera if either is available.

[mm]

I think Cordero is the better one to take a run at.

I mean going after rivera(are we seriously trying to reconstruct the Yankees Bullpen, from when they last won the WS?- Flash and Rivera, years after the fact?)

I dunno... just my two cents.

[Andy]

mm - I agree. I'm just figuring it'll be amazing if either is really available. If they're both available I'd look at Cordero first, primarily because of age. But if he's not and Rivera is, it's time to open the wallet.

[s97]

My point is a McCarver/Flood-Montanez/Hoerner for Allen/Rojas trade is less representative of the "handful of beans" trades than some of the other classics. (Schilling/Rolen/Abreu, etc)

Hoerner was the All-Star by default in 71, we all know about McCarver, and Allen was traded twice (once for Ted Sizemore) in the next two years before becoming having his MVP year with the ChiSox. Montanez was a fan favorite here in a period where the team was simply awful, which is hard to do.

The whole Allen situation is a book by itself. (See http://muse.jhu.edu/demo/nine/v009/9.1kashatus.pdf)

Otherwise, I'm in line with you. When you don't have a lot of extras, and pitching is overvalued, your only leverage is *carefully* trading overvalued untested "potential" for players who add long-term value and preparing to sign less expensive bench offense like Dobbs or Werth to compensate for the holes.

On your other thought, I hope Iguchi talks to Kaz Matsui before signing with the Mets...

[Andy]

s97
Okay.
But the debacle with Flood certainly is the kind of "not checking things out" that has been the Phils history. And if the relationship with Allen had not gotten so bad there wouldn't have been any desire to make the trade.

And wouldn't it have been great to have Schmidt, Allen and Luzinski in the same line-up?

[Andy]

Of course, they did in 75 and it didn't look too good either.

[AWH]

Interesting article by Ken Rosenthal here:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7383710

about the coming Red Sox dynasty, because of all of their young players.

It made me wonder how many of the rookies and young players they paid above slot for in the draft.

Anyone know?

[RES]

AWH - the Red Sox have become the new Yankees not just because of the fatuous revenue. They've become one of the top two or three organizations in baseball. They have highly credible executives who were willing to implement a progressive philosophy, take chances, and listen to outsiders, and besides that they have been producing quality players internally by the bushelful. There is no one who can say the Red Sox' success is simply due to a hefty payroll.

[Andy]

Three answers to the young Boston players thing:

1) They have drafted extremely well with a shrewd judgment about talent. Youkilis, for instance was an eighth round pick.

2) They have not shied away from paying large signing bonuses. Ellsbury, notably, got something like $1.4 (1.5?) MM.

3) In 2005, for a variety of reasons, they got five picks in the first round (2 regular and 3 sandwich). (Yikes!)

Add into this an apparent desire to win in their signing of free agents from a variety of sources (like, for instance, Japan), and you get a team with a strong team now and an equally bright future. Even when Ortiz and Manny age out, they're gonna have an amazing pitching staff. (They have, for instance, the right Buchholz.)

I wish the Phillies front office were half as efficient/talented/motivated/or whatever.

[Andy]

...so by the time the Phils used their first (second round) pick in 2005 for Costanzo, the red Sox got Ellsbury and Bucholz, two more pitchers, a second baseman and a catcher.

[Ben Keeler]

I sure hope Iguchi doesnt sign with the Mets.

[Joe K]

What do you all think of Corey Koskie as a short term inexpensive answer at third base?

[RSB]

Joe K: I think I like Dobbs better than Koskie. That's not even a short-term solution.

[kdon]

I think Koskie is a great option, provided he is fully recovered from the concussion and wants to play again.

You could probably sign him to a 1 year/3-5M deal with incentives and a club option for 2009.

This way, if Costanzo takes a step forward, he won't be blocked, and if Koskie doesn't work out, you aren't stuck with him like Bell.

[kdon]

RSB, why Dobbs over Koskie? Dobbs had a great year last year and still only posted an OPS+ of 96.

Koskie's *career* OPS+ is 113, and he is a much better defensive player.

[clout]

I agree with kdon on Koskie. He's a better all around player than Dobbs. The big question is his health. I think Costanzo is a longshot, but if lightning strikes and he does turn into an everyday player, you'd just let Koskie walk after 1 season.

[clout]

Andy: In 2001, the year the Bosox took Youkilis with their 7th rounder, the first 2 picks by the Phillies were Gavin Floyd (4th overall pick) and Terry Jones. The Phils' 7th rounder that year was Vinnie DeChristofaro. Both he and Jones couldn't even make it out of A ball before retiring. Still, that has to go down as a good draft year since they got Howard in the 5th round and Floyd at least had value as trade bait.

[AWH]

RES, I wasn't implying anything about the RSox payroll.

I was asking whether they'll do whatever is necessary to sign young talented draftees, including paying above slot to sign a pick, thereb incurring the "wrath" of the commissioners office.

It seems to me that if a team wants to build from within, then serious money needs to be committed to the minor league system, including the necessary dollars to stock that system with top talent.

Didn't the Phils miss signing a couple of this years picks because they refused to pay above slot?

[kdon]

Any draft that produces an MVP is a good one, but the Floyd pick was a disaster. I'm pretty sure Gonzalez was the key chip in the Garcia trade, and Floyd was more of a throw-in.

Again, I can't wait to read all the articles this March that talk about Floyd having "found his way" and "taking the next step."

He was able to cut down significantly on his walk rate last year, but by being around the plate, he got hit hard. He just doesn't have the stuff he did in high school when he could throw mid to high 90s.

[AWH]

kdon, why is that? Did he get hurt, or is it mental?

[Andy]

AWH:
In this year's draft, it's the Brandon Workman thing. There are lots of stories. My take is that Workman had a scholarship to U of Texas and so had some options. Scouts had him pegged as a 5 - 10 round pick. The Phils knew he wouldn't be interested for less than 3 round slot money, but liked what they saw. They moved him up on their board to three, then didn't get the deal done. With the deadline to sign picks approaching, they put the money into their 12th round pick (Julian Sampson - who may actually have some prospects), and let Workman go, knowing that next year, since they lost their 3rd round pick, they'll get an extra sandwich pick between rounds 3 and 4.

The question is, if you weren't going to make the effort on Workman, why draft him there? Wasn't there someone else in this year's draft who was better than a 3-4 sandwich next year? It feels like serious disorganization and inefficiency.

And yeah, I have to beleiev that if teams are going to draft well, they need both scouting AND a willingness to fork over some signing bonuses out of line with what Selig wants.

clout - c'mon, if we had Youkilis instead of Floyd, how would we have pulled off that great Garcia deal?

On Koskie versus Dobbs - I don't believe we've gotten a real representative sample of Dobbs against LHP. he might be a better hitter than we saw (just like Werth may be a less good hitter than we saw) in 2007. But Koskie brings good defense to the table, if he's healthy and hasn't aged too much. It would be nice to get a player for whom neither offense nor defense is a liability.
IF (big if) he's healthy, I'd take Koskie. (I'd at least be seeing if he'll come to Spring Training.)

kdon - I think Floyd was the major piece as far as the Phils were concerned, but the Sox wanted Gio. We will (mark my words) regret Gio Gonzalez as much as Ferguson Jenkins someday.

[kdon]

Andy, I agree that barring injury, Gonzalez looks to be a #2 pitcher in the majors for a long time.

AWH, I don't know what happened with Floyd's velocity, but that is a problem with high school pitchers. It's not bad now, but he really has no movement on his fastball.

I was just reading Sickles's scouting report on Floyd from '04 and it's very depressing.

"Promoted to Double-A for 2004, Floyd has thrown 17 shutout innings through May 2, solidifying his status as one of the top right-handed pitching prospects in the game."

"Physically, Floyd is close to being a perfect pitching prospect."

"Floyd's command is very impressive for a pitcher his age, and he is poised and confident on the mound."

"In my prospect book this year, I gave Floyd a Grade A-, ranking him as the ninth-best pitching prospect in the game. That grade may have been too conservative."

[MG]

ae - You miss the point of what I was saying. I would love for the Phils to get Rauch. He easily would become the second best option out of the pen.

However, you have to put that in context of what the Phils will give up and how it will hurt their competitiveness. You just don't make a move for the sake of making a move. If Bowden was willing to make a reasonable deal, then the Phils would have to definitely look it it but I doubt he would be willing to.

[ae]

"You just don't make a move for the sake of making a move."

oh, I absolutely agree. and paying JC Romero 3/$10 - before the market price for mediocre relievers has even been set - would definitely qualify as making a move for the sake of making a move.

[RSB]

I feel that if you run Dobbs out there over 140-150 games, he's going to pretty much equate Koskie's offensive production. Koskie is a moderate upgrade defensively - not significant enough to really warrant blowing money on him. If they want to upgrade the position, they need to broaden their horizons well beyond Koskie. Although if they miss out on Lowell, it wouldn't surpise me a bit if Gillick woos Koskie. If Koskie was a right-handed hitter, I'd say, okay - platoon him and Dobbs, that's an improvement over Helms and it obviates the need for a Nunez to waste a roster spot. But he isn't. And I don't want a Koskie/Helms platoon. Pass.

[clout]

RSB: I'm curious what factual basis you have for this statement: "if you run Dobbs out there over 140-150 games, he's going to pretty much equate Koskie's offensive production"???? Do you think Dobbs is more "dynamic"?

[clout]

Andy, kdon: Let's not go overboard on Gio. I like him and wish the Phils had kept him. He's better than Happ. But before we compare him with Fergy Jenkins, it should be noted that Jenkins was one of the first pitchers to throw 2-seam or 4-seam fastballs depending on the batter. He had a good slider and his fastballs had great movement. But, most important, he had great command inside the strike zone.

Scouting reports on Gio say he has a solid fastball but his best pitch is a killer curveball. This makes him similar to Myers & Hamels, whose best pitches are breaking balls and that may be why they let him go. Too many of the same kind of pitcher. What gives me pause is his command. His BB/9 the past 2 seasons has been 4.71 and 3.42.
That's a little bit of a red flag to me. Fergy's BB/9? It was 1.99.

[Dave X]

Koskie is going to be 35 and hasn't played a game in a game since July 6, 2006. He hits lefties much worse than Helms, and that's when he was young and healthy. If he's vet-minimum type of guy it would make sense to bring him in for the heck of it, but given the Phil's self-imposed budget, if he wants a lot it doesn't make sense to bring him in.

[kdon]

Clout, just to be clear, I said Gonzalez would be a solid #2 pitcher, not a Hall of Famer player.

RSB, I guess it's possible that Dobb's rate stats would increase with more playing time, but Koskie is a much better hitter over his career than Dobbs. I can't really see any evidence that Dobbs would be better.

You're comparing a guy who was one of the top 10-15 3B in baseball to someone who was a 26 year old in AAA last year.

And Koskie is more than a moderate upgrade over Dobbs defensively.

And I can't imagine he is going to be able to command more than a one or two year deal, that is loaded with incentives.

If you figure Helms is going to be on the roster because of his contract, then it makes sense to platoon him with Koskie and allow Dobbs to do what he does best, provide depth at the corner positions and be the #1 PH off the bench.

Making him the everyday 3B would be a great example of the Peter Principle.

[ae]

if Koskie was RH, I would say going after him would be a no-brainer. even as a lefty, I think he's worth pursuing.

and kdon's right, there's really no comparison between Koskie - a guy with a career .825 OPS - and Dobbs, who's a fine bat off the bench or part-time player but not, IMO, much as a starter.

[RSB]

Wait, what exactly has Koskie done since 2001? Not a whole hell of a lot. He had 25 homers a few years back, but the norm has been 15 or under. Dobbs had a terrific RBI/AB ratio in '07. Play him every day and he hits 15-20 homers. That's equal to or better what Koskie is likely to give you. Offensively, if you compare the most recent history - which counts far more than long-term career averages or circumstances - they project very similarly. I don't remember Koskie being such a great third baseman, but I will concede that Dobbs is below average defensively.

[AWH]

Hey, let's sign AROD. Rosenthal just reported that Boras says he'll opt out.

[ae]

if Koskie hasn't done a whole hell of a lot since 2001, I would hate to hear your opinion on Dobbs...seeing as how Koskie posted a higher OPS than Dobbs did in 2007 every season of his career, save one.

as far as Dobbs' RBI/AB ratio, it's not because of anything he personally did. Dobbs hit .255/.314/.394 with men on and .245/.322/.418 with RISP. when Burrell put up numbers like that in '06, he was almost run out of town, but Dobbs is somehow clutch?

I'm not crazy about Koskie, and obviously you're running a risk bringing a guy back after a long layoff like that, but I don't see how Dobbs projects better.

[AWH]

Let's see...ARod to Angels, Lowell to Yankees...vacancy at 3B for the RSox...it could get interesting.

[ae]

well...let me rephrase that. of course it is possible that Dobbs is a better bet, because we have no idea what kind of shape Koskie is in like I said. but if Koskie is in good shape, I do think he's a better bet than Dobbs.

[AWH]

Interesting...Rosenthal reports ARod will be opting out, and then Fox shows Red Sox owner John Henry receiving a text message...word travels fast in these times.

[Andy]

clout - I may be pre-mature in my appraisal. But let's compkletre the Gio picture.
Downside, as you mention, were the 57 walks he gave up in his 150 IP. BUT the upsides: just 116 hits, for a whip of 1.15 and 185 Ks. (Whatever he throws as his out pitch, he's missing bats better than anyone the Phils have.) More importantly, at 21, he was the youngest player on the White Sox AA team. I would judge him to have a fairly significant upside.

[AWH]

According to the report on foxsports.com, ARod is opting out because he doesn't know what Posada, Rivera and Pettite are going to do.

I think it's safe to assume that he has talked to each of them at least once since Torre rejected the Yanks offer. If they are not giving him any indication they're going to re-up with the Yanks, that could change the whole FA market this offseason.

Many people have assumed it's a given that Rivera and Posada would be back in the Bronx next year. Looks like that's not the case.

[Andy]

"compkletre "?
Sometimes I am amazed at the width of my fingers.
"complete" (maybe) obviously.

[Andy]

AWH - as much as these guys are sounding like the retention of Torre was the only way they were staying, I have to think they enjoy playing on a perennial favorite and would be fine with staying in NY as long as the new manager is someone they like. The two names mentioned most, Mattingly and Girardi might fit that bill.

Then again, how much are a top line closer and a switch-hitting starting catcher likely to fetch on the FA market?

[AWH]

Andy, good point. Another thing to consider is they could all be concerned as to whether the Yankees are going to be a "perennial" contender, especially if ARod opts out.

As I said a few threads ago, ARod opting out of his contract changes everything. Now the pressure on the Yankees to "do something", especially with their new stadium opening up in '09.

[mike nutter]

3 thoughts
hey flanders, where's your god now?
joe buck isn't a very good broadcaster.
tito knows what he is doing.

[AWH]

nutter, it's all about talent.

Tito on Phillies: no talent = loser

Tito on Res Sox: talent = WS Champ!

[ae]

I hate to be a pessimist, if Rodriguez goes to the Mets, we're pretty much screwed.

[Rusty E]

Research question...When is the last time the World Series MVP changed teams in the offseason?

[elliott]

john wetteland....after 96 from the yankees to the rangers...

[Matt]

I got front row tix to PSU-OSU. Talk about disappointing!

Just as disappointing was watching Tito win his 2nd championship after leaving the Phils.

As for A-Rod, it would surprise me to see him end up at Shea. They are very happy with the left side of their infield and I can't see them dropping $26m for him. More likely would be the Red Sox, and then Lowell might come to us.

It also wouldn't surprise me to see Schilling come back to Philly for 1 more year.

[Rusty E]

Thank you Eliott!

[JD]

Class move for the Rodriguez announcement to be made during the game tonight.

[mm]

1) I think it would be hard for an organization like the Red Sox to let their W-Series MVP just walk.

2) A-Rod going to the Red-Sox would be hell for him, from the amount of abuse he would take from the media and fans. He's going to get the same amount of money, no matter where he goes. Might as well be to a non-division rival to avoid all that bs.

3) Either way...A-Rod's opt out has just made the Phillies Off-Season hell, in regards to them retaining the services of a legitimate 3rd Basemen. Hell, I mean realistically speaking, it just raised the stock of Crede, who is a guy i was confident the phils could pry loose.

I don't think it's worth going after that posistion aggressively at this point. The best bet is to spend on the Relief Pitching that would be available, as well as someone who can step in as no 3 or no 4 starter.

Sign a Closer, Move Myers back to the Rotation, and if we can pry Koskie Loose, so be it, but I don't even know if we can even consider it a priority at this point.

[mm]

1) I think it would be hard for an organization like the Red Sox to let their W-Series MVP just walk.

2) A-Rod going to the Red-Sox would be hell for him, from the amount of abuse he would take from the media and fans. He's going to get the same amount of money, no matter where he goes. Might as well be to a non-division rival to avoid all that bs.

3) Either way...A-Rod's opt out has just made the Phillies Off-Season hell, in regards to them retaining the services of a legitimate 3rd Basemen. Hell, I mean realistically speaking, it just raised the stock of Crede, who is a guy i was confident the phils could pry loose.

I don't think it's worth going after that posistion aggressively at this point. The best bet is to spend on the Relief Pitching that would be available, as well as someone who can step in as no 3 or no 4 starter.

Sign a Closer, Move Myers back to the Rotation, and if we can pry Koskie Loose, so be it, but I don't even know if we can even consider it a priority at this point.

[RSB]

You can forget about Lowell. The Phillies will never outbid the Red Sox or Yankees for him, and they'll both go after him hard.

Congrats to the Red Sox. They were the best team all year, and definitely a legit champion. The NL, on the other hand, is embarrassingly weak right now. Really. The Rockies belonged in that series like your great-grandmother belongs at a Wu-Tang concert.

[malcolm]

Does anyone buy the "If AROD opts out we won't try to sign him", crap the Yanks are putting out? Just don't see that when the Sox are offering 30 mil a year. With the ticket prices at the new stadium they can't have Abraham Nunez as the 3B.

[AWH]

Here's a link to a CNN/Money article on MLB revenues:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/25/commentary/sportsbiz/index.htm

Salaries are going up ladies and gents. I truly hope Phillies management understands that and isn't in denial.

It's not that I think players are worth the moeny they're going to get, it's just that I nderstand they're going to get it.

[AWH]

I predict the Sox move quickly to re-up Lowell. IMO, I don't think they'll want to commit that much money to ARod.

[Lake Fred]

Just our luck!

1. The Rox wimp out on the Sox, but kill us. We must be really mediocre.

2. Our secret man crush third baseman, Lowell, wins the WS MVP. He'll never give us a chance.

3. Schilling, who knows? If we sign him, he pitched his last good game a few days ago. If we don't, he'll win 17 games next year for somebody else.

4. A-Rod, he'll only sign here if we meet his secret demand to make Junior the new GM.

It's going to be a long cold winter. The next thing you know, the NFL will be playing games in Europe. (Oh, they just did that.)

[clout]

RSB: ON this we agree 100% "The Rockies belonged in that series like your great-grandmother belongs at a Wu-Tang concert."

They weren't remotely as good as any of the 4 AL playoff teams. They just happened to get hot at the right time and had only soft NL opposition after beating the Padres in that 1-game playoff.

[clout]

AWH: Agree with you too, 100%. The Sox will bring back Lowell, avoid the A Rod circus. And, yes, salaries will be even more ridiculous. Beerleaguers better get used to it.

[D. Patrone]

Lake Fred~

I agree. It's gonna be a tough off-season. Gillick won't/can't do much and will offer salaries going up as an excuse. I said previously we wouldn't get Schilling or Lowell so there really isn't much to talk about is there? No sense crying about it.

[clout]

D. Patrone: I wouldn't rule out Schilling. The Red Sox have a couple of young starters ready to move into the rotation full-time in Lester & Buchholz and Schill turns 41 in 2 weeks.

[Crazy Jon]

At least we're number one in something: SI.com ranked Philadelphia the #1 city currently in a sports slump.

[Crazy Jon]

"We could do a lot worse than Willie Montanez in a trade...You should have read the comments on Beerleaguer when they traded him for Garry Maddox..."
Was that the Steve Fredericks show back then?

[Andy]

One more reason the sox will sign Lowell: they do not like giving up first round picks. They accumulate them instead, and use them wisely.

Just like the Phi...
(I cannot even believe I was gonna joke about that.)

[ae]

the Beerleaguer thread on the Maddux trade has nothing on the ones about the Grover Cleveland Alexander trade. (you have to dig around for it, but it's there.) I know some posters thought Mike Prendergast and Pickles Dillhoefer had a lot of potential, but come on.

[Andy]

ae - Maddox, right? When we traded away the wrong Maddux, I'm not sure anyone complained.

[JB]

I hope A-ROD goes to the METS - that puts more pressure on them and what has A-ROD done with the YANKS that was so special?

Lamar said he left the NATS because of philosophical differences with the front office.

Very much of a wild-card but I wonder if A-Rod is playing SS for the NATS in their new ballpark this year??

[J. Weitzel]

What has Yankees pitching done that was so special when A-Rod was there? A-Rod had 54 home runs and 156 RBIs last season.

[ae]

oops, stupid typo...

[ku]

the yankees won't pursue a-rod now that he has opt-ed out due to the fact that 21$ MM that the rangers were paying toward his gaudy salary will now have to be paid by the yankees ..thats an extra 21$ MM they can spend on abreu's option or bringing back mariano