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Saturday, October 06, 2007

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Do or die time. I like their chances against a righty, but these guy is real good. Moyer will go 5 tonight, and looks like Nunez is in the starting lineup tonight. The question is will they go with Victorino or Werth.

How many times have the Phils lost two games in a row at home and then won the next two on the road? Probably a few. That's how they have to look at this game - not do or die (which it is of course), but another game which they have a good shot at winning.

Positive thinking - not what-if thinking.

If Brett Myers is right, then that falls on the shoulders of Manuel and his coaching staff, and J-Roll, the clubhouse leader. I just hope he was trying to juice them up a bit.

If it is cold tonight, I think it benefits Moyer as oppsoed to Jimenez who probbaly isn't used to playing in the cold. Also, as much as I like Nunez's glove, you have to play Dobbs because they need to field their best offensive lineup.

I think the Phils surpise the world and bring it back home for Game 5 at CBP where Hamels pitches better at night and the Phils feast on Francis.

Starts here and starts with JRoll. Make this inexperienced, too-rested infant pitcher throuw strikes & pitch from the stretch!

Thats it Reed. Put some pressure on the rookie. Make him work hard for outs. Phils with nothing to lose but pride now. Gotta go hard or go home. Put it all on the line.

Win today, and hope and confidence flood back. Win today, doesn't matter how, just figure out a way. Scratch and claw and fight for every play, every pitch. Win big, win ugly, win lucky, win by a hair, just win. I believe--GO PHILS.

The mantra, get on base, get on base, get on base. Good things will happen.

Found this on Buccigross' ESPN Hockey preview for the Eastern Conference (it becomes Phillies relevant eventually):

"Not only has the Great One become the Grape One, but he has picked Ontario over California.

"Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky has sold his home near Thousand Oaks, Calif., for about $18.5 million (all figures U.S.), including some furnishings, so he can devote time to his newest vocation -- making wine in partnership with Creekside Estate Winery in Jordan Station, Ont., just west of St. Catharines.

"Gretzky, 46, keeps a residence in Arizona to be near the Phoenix Coyotes, the NHL team that he co-owns and coaches. He and his wife, Janet, have relocated there with their five children.

"The couple sold their seven-bedroom California home on nearly seven acres in the lakeside community of Lake Sherwood. The property has a 10,800-square-foot main house plus two guest houses and a carriage house. It also includes a golf course and lake views, a pool and a tennis court.

"The estate received a mention in Robb Report's 2007 lists of top designers and architects. Monique Lafia of Lafia/Arvin, a design corporation, completed the interior of Gretzky's estate, and Richard Landry was the architect. The buyer of the neo-Georgian mansion is retired baseball player Lenny Dykstra, 44, a former centerfielder with the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies."

.5 * .5 * .5 = .125

Thats still 1/8... if you believe that the outcome is nothing more than a coin flip at this point (which is debatable), thats still a pretty big chance. They didn't come this far to falter now.

Clout, not true. There have been posters that have directly said that Kendrick should have stayed for more innings or at least have stayed in. I'm not going to comb through the last couple of days of posts to find the particular person(s) because it is irrelevant. If Kendrick stays in what is the purpose behind it? He pitches another inning, 2 innings? I understand that he could be pinch hit for, but what about his performance inspired confidence that he would be able to get Matsui out? I know it wasn't the double and the triple that Matsui had already hit against him. It certainly was not the 2 HR that he gave up in the first. If Kendrick fails to retire Matsui, what then? You still leave Kendrick in? If he gives up a single and one run scores? He would then face a hitter to whom he has already served up a gopher ball. If he does not get him out then he gets to face another couple of hitters that have either homered off of him or have hit screaming outs. What then? Would Lohse still be a bad move at that point?

It is all about the result. Thats it clout, you and everyone else who is arguing that it was a bad move, know this. If Lohse strikes Matsui out then it is a ho-hum move. Either that or someone would incorrectly label Manual a genious for the move. I think the former would be closer to the truth, and the latter would be equally as bogus as blaming Manual for Lohse throwing meatballs. It is the same thing as blaming a manager for pinch hitting a batter. If he K's then the manager was an idiot. If he hits a home run, he is a genious. It is this kind of missappropriation of credit and blame that drives me up the wall. The pitchers thow the pitches and the batter swings the bat. Some better than others, and I would certainly say that Lohse was the best option to come in for middle relief. That was Manuals intent before the game ever started. Nobody complained about it before the grand slam. The fact that he brought him in with the bases loaded is irrelevant. The bottom line is: If Lohse makes the right pitch or even throws the ball within 2 feet of where it should have been then the entire scenario is different.

Mesa: I have never attempted to defend Manual putting in Mesa. Mesa is horrible, and I do not think that Manual intended to have to put him in. I also don't think he counted on Lohse giving up grand slams to Matsui. Either way, his hand may have been forced somewhat, but Mesa was a bad move either way. Although I'm not sure that the other options, short of putting in Gordon/Romero/Myers, are much better.

So blame Manual all you want for Mesa, but the Lohse move was the right move that went terribly wrong. That is on Lohse. The problem is that Lohse is not a big enough headline. Manual is the target so anything that is even remotely attributable to him will be, especially when web site hits/newspaper sales are on the line. Once again, Stark has an excuse, what is everyone elses???

parker, if you're going to keep this line of argumentation up, it's "genius" not "genious." Reading that misspelling over and over again is giving me a headache.

It's over. Some people didn't like Manuel's move - maybe they are overdoing its significance. The chances of a new contract for Charlie don't rely on it solely. Game 2 was a winnable game. The offense had plenty of chances; the Rockies starter was out as early as Kendrick was. The game was lost because our game 2 starter started the season in AA and the Phils have no middle relief. While the Yankees and Indians rolled out Pettite and Carmona (that game is already legendary), the Phils had Kyle Kendrick.

Parker: Using your logic, managers are immune from criticism.

As has been stated, repeatedly, although completely ignored by you, MANY of us, including fans in the stands, thought removing Kendrick was a bone-headed move BEFORE Katsui's slam. So it has nothing to do with second guessing. It has to do with a bad move that was obvious to most fans.

Matsui, obvious, but I kind of like that equation of Kaz+Matsui=Katsui.

We should give a little credit to KK. He was a big part of the Phillies season and helped get them where they are. AA or not, he did a good job and I'm in no way convinced he was done.

Oh, I missed an "O," how outrageous of me to overlook such an obvious error? I will try not to obfuscate my points in the future by the making, oh, such a horrible mistake in spelling. J/K.

If Moyer wins tonight I think the momentum swings back to the Phillies. Lohse-Fogg or Lohse-Redman would be the best matchup of the series for the Phils tomorrow night. The Rocks do NOT want to go to Philly for Game 5 and face a fully rested Cole Hamels. To me, the whole series comes down to tonight.

Clout, Manual had left Kendrick in the game, I would have been furious. Then again, I did not have the luxury of posting such comments, but the people I was watching the game with certainly understood what I thought about that possibility.

And managers would not be immune to criticism. If he brings in Alfonseca or Mesa in that situation (Yanking Kendrick), then he would deserve to be fired on the spot. Lohse throwing possibly his worst pitch as a Phillie, not so much.

If you assume that Kendrick needed to be lifted (Next three batters had 2b, 3B, HR, HR against him with the sacks juiced???), then the question becomes whether Lohse was the best option to come in from the bullpen. I say he was, unless you use Romero in the fourth inning. That might have worked, but I don't think it would have been a great move.

I don't mean to be pedantic, parker. You were just consistently doing it and it was distracting.

JD, I don't mean to take away from what Kendrick has done. He's been a season-saver and made some great pitches earlier in the game to get out of trouble. I only meant to point out the contrast between our game 2 starter and the game 2 starter in other series and shift some of the blame away from Manuel.

parker - If the move has to be made, I'd rather have seen Romero for an inning and a third, and then Lohse for 2. I know it was early, and hind-sight is 20/20, but it proved to be an important moment in the game.

I don't understand why people aren't loving Kyle Kendrick. He had a 3.87 ERA this year. Yeah he gives up some hits but he's been a dependable pitcher since he's been called up. For someone to say the game was lost partially because we started someone who was in AA this season is ridiculous.. he's a gamer and I hope he'll be in the rotation for years to come.

Sophist, knowing what I know now, certainly it might have been the right move (Romero in the 4th). I suspect that if Manual knew that Lohse would throw a meatball, he might have done that very thing. He expects his pitchers to perform, or at least not be as pathetic as Lohse was in that situation. You cannot expect Manual to predict the future. He saved Romero, as any traditional managing logic tells you. It would also tell you to put in your best available to pitch with the bases loaded. I think Lohse is better in a one batter situation than Gordon, and surely you don't use Myers there. So that leaves you with Romero and Lohse. Given the liklihood that Romero will be needed to face either Helton or Hawpe later in the game if it is close, then I go with Lohse. I emphasize for the billionth time that Manual expects better from his pitchers; maybe not some of them, but certainly Lohse.

Sophist, it's kind of depressing watching the other games and seeing the pitching these teams have. However, we have what we have and have to deal with it the best we can. I know a lot of the responsibility is on Gillick, but I can't curse him right now. I'll wait until the season is over for that. Right now, it's on the team itself and, of course, Cholly.
It happens to the best of them, of course. See that monster shot Manny hit off K-Rod last night? Yikes!

JD, who would you credit/blame for the Manny HR?

a.) Manny Ramirez: for swinging well
b.) K-Rod: for throwing a bad pitch
c.) Mike Sosscia (probably wrong spelling): for using K-rod
d.) Terry Francona: for putting Manny in the lineup

Fun fact: Hamels has more base hits in the post-season than A-Rod. Terrific!

I'd credit Big Papi for being in the lineup in front of him..ok, just kidding.

Truth is Manny seemed to know exactly what he was going to throw, and K-Rod threw a meatball. What I did find interesting is that according to the "metrics", Manny did not match up well against K-Rod. Just my opinion, but think the metrics should be tossed out of a 50 story window during the playoffs. I'm sure it didn't worry Manny that he didn't hit K-Rod well during the regular season. But that's, as they say, Manny Being Manny

Of course, it's also true that the American league managers have a lot less game strategy to deal with. That's one reason why I prefer the senior circuit

Parker: I was not at my computer to post comments during the game but, during the commercial break which coincided with the pitching change, I wrote the following e-mail to my brother & father (both Phillies fans). This is literally cut & pasted from my box of "Sent Mail:"

"This is a mistake for about 6 different reasons. Kendrick has proven himself adept at getting out of the jams & that was a cheap hit. He should be staying in the game."

This isn't hindsight talking. I judge managerial moves at the time they were made, not based on hindsight that was unknowable at the time. If Lohse had retired Matsui, the pitching change would STILL have been a bad move.

I believe I heard on ESPN that Cholly was the first manager in the history of post-season play to remove his starting pitcher in the fourth inning, when he had allowed no more than 2 runs & his team was winning. Did the pitching change lose them the game? I have no idea, since I don't know what would have happened if Kendrick had stayed in. But it sure as hell didn't work & it sure as hell wasn't the best move at the time.

JD - It's also just one at-bat. No matter what the past histories say, Manny always has a chance to do that.

Were you referencing Francona's comments after the game? I believe he did give credit to Big Papi for the hit for that very reason.

2 great games last night. The 8th innings in Cleveland was just great entertainment. I wonder if Torre is taking heat for pulling Pettite.

Parker: You're equating the decision to use the team's best relief pitcher in the 9th inning of a tied game with the decision to remove the team's 2nd best starting pitcher in the 4th inning of a game the team is winning?

Your analogy is ludicrous and surely you know it.

Yea, the Indians/Yanks game was a great game, and the flies were insane. They showed a clip from a game some years ago where Albert Belle lit a fire in the dugout to try to get rid of the flies, and the umpire is yelling at the dugout, telling them to put it out. Hilarious.

I just wrote a long drawn out passionate plea for a Phillies win and it was rejected as spam. Damn you bloody fun bustin' mutts fans for trolling this great site and bringing about spam filters.

To all you Beerleaguers out there please hear me out. My life as an Australian baseball phan is completely limited to what I find on the internet. I am constantly amazed at the passion you guys show with your endless posts and ramblings on all things Phillies wins and losses. Your dedication deserves reward. Allow me to repeat some words I posted on a Beerleaguer friends blog....'We Should Be GM's'.

Maybe this dumbass Aussie Phils phan typing this message doesn't know the real deal when it comes to disappointment. But one thing I can say, I am passionate about baseball and the Phillies are my favourite team and always have been. At midday my time I will be yelling, screaming and cursing at my computer screen MLB.TV coverage as much as you Phillie lovin' Americans. All bad managing and negatives aside, I know our Phillies baseball team will be trying their hardest to do what they can to win. Can we really ask for more?

It is 4am in Australia and I have been up all night with my neighbors on the drink thinking about baseball while we all talk crap. We had a fire going and I sacrificed one of my Phillies t-shirts on the fire to send some good luck for the Phils in this crucial game 3. Believe it or not I have been waiting just as long as you born and bred Phils phans for some October action. I hope my sacrificial piss-up helps somewhat. Whether first or last I will always follow the Phillies, just like you guys. So c'mon Phillies lets make today a blast and get back in this thing. We don't call you the Comeback kids/Phigtin' Phils for nothing.

Go out there and kick some friggin' rocky arse!

Hey it worked. C'mon Phillies!!!!!

The Phils WILL win tonight!

Well, since we are now correcting Parker:

The manager's name is Charlie ManuEl. He isn't an instruction booklet.

Maybe he was spelling it Manual becuase the fellow has been a bit too "hands on"?

No, he isnt an instruction booklet, but sometimes I think he needs one.
I thought of him more as Charlie Automatic, as in it's automatic that La Forest will pinch hit. (Ok, not during the playoffs, but don't think he hasn't wanted to)

Or Charlie Standard, from the days when Franklin, Rhodes, and Gordon seemingly pitched the 7th, 8th, and 9th every night.

Ramirez came through in the clutch, the way he did in the playoffs a few years back with a bomb in a DS clincher off Barry Zito. That much is admirable, but the way he stood there at the plate for ten seconds in both instances is deplorable. I used to be a Red Sox sympathizer, but no more. That team and its fans are in serious need of humbling and the sooner, the better. If they play Cleveland, I hope the Tribe runs right the hell over them. Hell, I almost wish the *Yankees* would beat them again.

I really have no feeling either way for how tonight's game will go. I wouldn't be surprised if they won, or if they got knocked out. I do think that if they win tonight, the pressure shifts considerably more to the Rockies for Game 4, knowing they'd have to face Hamels in Philly if they don't get it done in that situation. The one thing that sucks is that I won't be around to watch it. So I'm seriously hoping that I haven't seen my last Phillies game this season.

RSB, although I do like the Sox, I can understand your point (and Ramirez is a kook, no question about it, but man can he hit!) but if someone beats the Sox, anyone but the Yankees! Seen enough of them for a long time.

I'd rather see the Indians win it in the AL. In fact, I think if the Phils can't, I'll be rooting for them. Lots of young, great hitters, excellent starting pitching, Kenny Lofton, and a city that's as championship starved as Philly. Plus, they have lots of ex-philly guys in their lineup: Lofton, Byrd, Michaels.

Sophist: For all those reasons, and C.C. and Fausto Carmona, I'm buying what you are selling. Carmona has been excellent and consistent all year long. Even if he pitched in CBP, his line in Game 2 would come very similar to what he threw last night. He is the perfect example of why GB/FB ratio is a critical factor to pitching success when evaluating anyone, especially in this upcoming free agent market.

Bloodystripes: Awesome post! I must admit I didn't understand all of it, but I got the gist of it. Go Phils!

Sophist: Not to mention Fultz, Dellucci, and the Phillie Who Got Away in Joe Borowski.

And really, not to start another Borowski debate, but to those who choose to focus on Borowski's stats: there is virtually no way that even a mediocre Borowski could have hurt the Phillies more than it did having lost one of their top starters to instead fill the closer's position. Imagine having Hamels and Myers 1-2 in this playoff series. Think it'd have made a little bit of a difference?

RED ALERT- Someday with some press savvy has got to get to Hamels fast. Since the whole "I won't pitch early, even though nobody has asked me to" stuff yesterday, he has now commented for Marcus Hayes article today. To paraphrase: I won't pitch in relief, even though nobody asked me to.

Somebody help him. He is going to put his foot in his mouth very badly if he doesn't wake up. Just because some guy sticks a recorder in your face does not mean you have to start blabbering. I can see big trouble down the line with this.

Before you know it, Hamels could turn into Reggie Jackson

Let's just hope the locals don't over-react to his comments.

I think he's just fine, and when called on for game 5, he will come through. Besides, anything he says will be overshadowed by Myers' wackiness. Go, Phils!

Agreed that tonight's game is the key to the whole thing. I thought the Phils had a starting pitching advantage coming into the series. Still, think it is true and the Phils have two favorable matchups the next two nights.

I just hope that the Old Man can pull another rabbit out of his hat tonight. Here is hoping that the cold weather and anxiety help Moyer.

As JW said though, this game is on the offense tonight. They have to put up 6 or 7 runs tonight.

[As JW said though, this game is on the offense tonight. They have to put up 6 or 7 runs tonight.]

I think it will have to be 8+.

MG, why do you think the Phils have the advantage tonight at starter? Experience?

Ask the Indians and Yankess how much that matters.

Anyone know a good bar in west Los Angeles to watch the game tonight? I usually go to The Shack which is a Philly bar but they also cater to Ohio State fans unfortunately

who's the plate ump tonight and what is the scoop on him?

kdon - No but I don't think that Jimenez will pitch that well.

I just looked at the weather forecast it and it interesting. Going to be much warmer than originally forecast (low 70s/high 60s) at game time but incredibly windy (winds 20 MPH plus).

This is going to play a huge factor in the game. If the wind is blowing out, I don't like it all. Means that Moyer will give up a bomb or two tonight probably. Moyer just can't give up any free passes tonight.

kyleJ, try Philly West on Westwood Blvd. I'm not positive, but I think they have TVs

thanks jd, I just called and he said he'd have it on

Like everyone's said already, tonight is as big as it gets. The only thing to add is that a Phils win in the Rocks home stadium could burst their bubble at least a little. One of the Rocks, can't remember which, was quoted in today's paper as saying they were riding the streak and when they get on that kind of roll, you think you're never going to lose.

Any defeat from a big Phils hitfest with Chase having one of his 4/5 games, Ryan with a three run homer, etc. to a tough grind it out victory might take a little wind out of the Rocks' sails. Then, instead of just playing ball, maybe THEY start to think a little about how it would feel to lose two straight in CO and let the home fans down, what it would be like to blow a two game lead and come back to face a rested Hamels and revived Phils in a 5th game at CBP, etc.

Like someone said, take some pitches, no 6 pitch - 3 and done half innings when you bat, get some runners, be aggressive, force the Rocks to play from behind. I think some good things will happen.

No feel for how it will go, but haven't given up hope by any means.

GO, PHILS!

Also, a little rosary for a home plate ump who gives Moyer the corners couldn't hurt.

There are so many x factors in this game, but one thing that cannot be counted on is getting calls from the home plate umpire. Jamie might get lucky on calls, but he can't depend on it.

Getting excited time....lots of us getting together already to watch the game....pray that the umps call pitches favorably for Moyer (they should respect the senior citizens of Baseball) and that he keeps the ball down. Say your second prayer that the Phillies score early and often....and for a third prayer ask that the Rockies cool off and play like they did for most of the season!

BAP, I wasn't equating anything. I just asked who you would attribute the HR by Manny. Manu"E"l absolutely did the right thing, he just didn't get the desired result. Personally, I take a rookie pitcher out with the bases loaded and the next three hittters have gone double, HR, HR off of him already in the game. That is not even counting the knowledge that Manuel and Dubee have that he is not near as good the third time through the order. Lohse had one job, get this guy out and worry about the rest later. He did not get the job done. You can't make excuses for Lohse by saying that he is a starting pitcher. He has seen the bases loaded before and has pitched relief before. There is no excuse for missing your target by two feet whether you are a starter, reliever, or bullpen instructor. Lohse made a pathetic pitch, end of story, end of blame. I can understand some blame being attributed to Manuel. But if I had to rank the blame this is how it would go:

1.) Lohse: for throwing the worst pitch in his Phillies career.
2.) Kendrick: for pitching poorly enough that Manuel even had to consider whether or not to take him out.
3.) Gillick: Because Kyle Lohse is the best middle reliever in the postseason bullpen.
4.) Manuel: for trusting anybody except for Myers/Romero/Gordon. Certainly not for bringing Lohse in and actually expecting him not to throw that garbage pitch.

Rich Hill is imploding. I think the D-backs are for real.

It's my darling wife's birthday tomorrow, which means dinner tonight, which means I have probably have seen my last Phils game this year. The lack of production on offense and the mediocre pitching leaves me little choice but to admire the box score tomorrow and think "Season well done."

There will be company, though, in the "swept in the first round" department by some good teams, which ought to keep some of the prognosticators from ranting and raving at full volume.

Does anyone know what percent of oxygen is available at an altitude of 5000 feet compared to what is available at ground level or whatever the altitude of CBP is? When I ski in the Rocky Mts. the published figure is that at 10,000 there is only 40% oxygen available compared to sea level. How do teams flying into Denver handle this?

Mike H. great confidence. They only have to win two games to tie it up. C-mon.

Well, Parker, at least you spelled everything right.

Thanks all you spelling teachers out there.

Christ Mike, you must be a blast.

MG, agreed that Jimenez doesn't really scare me. His minor league numbers are pretty poor: a lot of walks.

BUT, I don't have much faith in Moyer either. I think best case, we can expect Moyer to go 5 or 6, giving up 2 or 3 runs.

It's really hard to believe that tonight and Sunday won't be crazy, high-scoring affairs.

And Parker, I believe the common slang is not c-mon, but c'mon.

funny.

parker, I think I agree with your order of blame. Glad we got that straightened out, spelling and all.

It looks like the Dbacks are making up for that run differential in the playoffs. Would be funny if they were so impressive in the postseason that their Pytag-projection turned out dead-on for the whole season.

Yes, Mrs. Kdon. I promise, I will never misspell my slang ever again.

Parker and Sophist,

I think "blame" is not really the best way to look at the issue.

The problem with lumping everything together under one term is that it confuses the issue.

Pitchers make bad pitches. Even great pitchers make bad pitches. It happens all the time, people don't have their stuff.

BUT, the decision to pull Kendrick wasn't a physical mistake, it was a mental mistake. It was poor thinking. As many here have argued, it wasn't the result but the logic behind it that was so onerous.

You hear coaches say it all the time: that they can live with physical mistakes, but not mental ones. Even great athletes cannot be perfect. But managers should at least be expected to have well thought out, rational approaches to their decision making.

The Cubs just can't get runners in from scoring position.

Parker, didn't your teachers tell you never to make promises you can't keep.

kdon - Even if Manuel didn't make the best decision by pulling Kendrick and putting Lohse in, Lohse's mistakes was worse than Manuel's. Lohse is a major league pitcher and a starting pitcher who's done well this year. He should be able to make an out or, in the very least, avoid giving up a home run to the guy least likely to hit a homer on the Rockies team. It's not like Manuel brought Mesa in to face Holliday (something I saw him do a few weeks ago). He brought Kyle Lohse in to face Kaz Matsui. Lohse should win that battle, not give up an emotionally destructive homer.

I clearly don't have much to say about the game tonight because I continue to talk about Thursday game. I don't know what to think of Moyer's chances. I am hoping the offense wakes up, though. I think the Rockies are going to score at least 5 or 6 runs.

Kdon:

Logic? Next three batters had a 2B, HR, and HR off Kendrick in the game. The bases were loaded, and Kendrick did not have his "stuff." You can argue that it was the wrong decision, but you cannot say that it was not logical. There is evidence on both sides. I prefer the evidence that says "2B, HR, HR."

I'll also throw this out (For the third time) purely for logical purposes:

Kendrick: Innings 4-6
223 AB, 34 R, 68 H, 13 2B, 0 3B, 12 HR, 30 RBI, 10 BB, 3 HBP, 29 K, .305 BA, .340 OBP, .525 Slug, .865 OPS.

[BUT, the decision to pull Kendrick wasn't a physical mistake, it was a mental mistake. It was poor thinking. As many here have argued, it wasn't the result but the logic behind it that was so onerous.]

I don't know where I stand on this point. Kendrick did get out a jam earlier in the game, and all year long. The men on base didn't reach due to any error he made. But parker has a point about the quality of Kendrick's pitching that day (and a less strong argument that Kendrick's effectiveness decreases in the middle innings).

At the time, I wanted to see Kendrick pitch mostly because I didn't want it to be relief pitcher time that early.

[You can argue that it was the wrong decision, but you cannot say that it was not logical. ]

Agreed. Man, I hope we never have to talk about this again.

Okay sophist, I'm sure Cholly agrees with you - not his fault. Put a player in a situation *in which he has never been* and then blame him when he fails.

Good coaching.

Parker - the thing about those middle innings numbers is that, for one, this argument is about one out as opposed to a decision to let Kendrick pitch for 2 or 3 more innings. Additionally, if Kendrick can't pitch innings 4-6, then he really isn't an effective starter to begin with. Why start him in Game 2 at all if you don't trust him to pitch at least through the 5th inning effectively?

I find it hard to believe that Lohse has never been called out of the bullpen with the bases loaded at any point in his playing career. He has definately had the bases loaded before. IMO, if you miss a fastball target low, by two feet, it is your fault. It would be different if I was throwing the pitch, but this is a major league pitcher.

The reason is was not logical was because Cholly made the following decision.

Players on base = pitcher struggling

Pitcher struggling = relief pitcher

The problem with this is that the first proposition is *not* true, and hence it was illogical.

Kendrick had struggled in earlier innings, but he had looked fine in the fourth. He gave up one real hit in the inning, then was forced to pitch around and eventually intentionally walk a stiff hitter, followed by a cheap bleeder.

If Torrealba and Smith had hit rockets, I don't think there would be any discussion about this.

"I find it hard to believe that Lohse has never been called out of the bullpen with the bases loaded at any point in his playing career."

Parker, I don't really give a sh*t what you find hard to believe. Go to his B-Ref page and look it up.

Sophist, the point of posting those stats is to point out Kendricks ineffectiveness against batters when they have seen him for the 3rd time. It is not to say that he cannot pitch in those innings. This would be particularly true when the next three batters already (apparently 2B, HR, HR) have seen the ball well.

Kdon: "Playing Career," as in ever (College, high school, minor leagues).

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071006/SPORTS01/71006011

Line-up per Charlie:


1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2. Chase Utley, 2B
3. Pat Burrell, LF
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Aaron Rowand, CF
6. Shane Victorino, RF
7. Carlos Ruiz, C
8. Abraham Nunez, 3B
9. Jamie Moyer, LHP

I like victorino in the line-up, but would rather he hit #2. A little worried about 789 being a black hole in a game they will likely need to score big to win.

kdon - Manuel may have pulled Kendrick not because based on the fact men were on base (and therefore Kendrick was struggling), but rather because of what Matsui had done to Kendrick earlier that day. I didn't like the move at the time.

Do you really think the situation is the reason Lohse made the bad pitch? He didn't have much trouble getting ahead 1-2.

Man, the Cubs just can't get a big hit.

Aaawww my head is pounding! Phils need raging offense and a decent umpire.

@ Squatter, Cheers bro! I'm phired up today. Long night on the beers, bourbon and rum-ports. Wooooo, I stink.

Lets go Phillies!!!!! As Leyton Hewitt would say..........C'MON!!!

What do you all think of Vic in the lineup instead of Werth?

I definitely prefer Utley at 2 and Burrell at 3, though, no matter who's in RF.

Sophist, exactly if the situation was so troubling, why did he get into a pitchers count (1-2). If it was so mentally challenging for Lohse to pitch as a reliever, why did he look fine doing it for 3 pitches. Did he suddenly freak out: "OMG, I'm a starting pitcher. What is this relief stuff? This upsets me so much I might miss my location of my fastball by 2 feet."

Sophist, I do think the situation mattered. Loshe is a starter, and used to being able to settle into a game, rather than having to be sharp immediately (how many times do you hear about a pitcher who struggles in the first inning, but settles down afterwards?)

And Kendrick wasn't pulled because men were on base? So you (or Cholly) would have pulled Kendrick after 66 pitches with *nobody on base* and 2 outs because Kaz f'in Matsui is up?

If he had done that, he might have been mobbed after the game.

I prefer Vic in but at #2 and, as good as Abe can be with the glove, Dobbs has to start...even though Cholly uses Abe in Moyer starts. This is the brink of elimintation and the Phils offense has to get on track. I throw out the Cholly book and use Dobbs.

Like the lineup and the order. Won't enable Hurdle to matchup as effectively instead of as in Game 1.

Play Victorino tonight for his defense and speed. Yorvit has a tough time throwing out runners and Colorado's RF is pretty vast. Need a guy with good range. Plus, Werth is slumping.

Victorino is good choice against the RHP. He's good both sides of the plate but Werth has struggled of late against RHP. His speed is important and can always pose a threat when on base. With the speed at least the Phillies have one advantage over Colorado.

Kdon, are these mutually exclusive considerations:

1.) Matsui/Tulowitzki/Holliday already hit him well.
2.) The bases were loaded, for whatever reason.

Why can he not consider both of these factors when making the decision.

Also, why did Lohse look good enough to get the count to 1-2 if he was off his game?

I feel bad for Dobbs, being left out of every playoff game's starting lineup due to circumstances out of his control. This Nunez-for-defense decision might end up being as derided as taking out Kendrick if we lose 8-7.

Watching the pre-game show on Comcast. Sarge said the winds are blowing out-bad news! Glad victorino is in the lineup-Phills need to use their speed to expose Torrealba's arm. Werth's long swing is not a good match against Jimenez 97mph heat.

Oh good, lineups!

Definitely a good call to put Vic in at #6.

Miso, the problem with Vic at number 2 is that this would mean having Utley and Howard back-to-back. This way, if COL brings in Fuentes, he has to pitch to Burrell.

Nunez over Dobbs is a surprise, however. I guess it is defensible (no pun intended), but it is odd.

Six days ago, we have a must-win game and Dobbs starts with Moyer. Now we have another must win game, and it's back to Abe.

Cholly may have figured that with Vic in the lineup, he needed a good LH bat of the bench.

Are we just talking ourselves into "win this one and turn the series around", or does this team have some fire left in them?

I've never been so confident and so unsure at the same time.

[Play Victorino tonight for his defense and speed.]

Agreed. They need to pressure Yorvit, and the outfield and the chances for Xtra base hits at Coors are both huge. Werth is deceptively speeder and has the height factor, but I think Vic has the edge in range.

Dobbs should be starting. Helms has had to make some plays over at 3B in previous games, but he was able to make them. Hopefully Nunex surprises us and gets some BBs.

The Cubs still can't catch a break. They haven't gotten any hits with runners-on (and runners have been on a-plenty). And they clearly made a key DP out to get out of the 4th without damage, but the ump made a bad call against them.

Sophist:My guess is if the Phills fall behind by more than 2 runs-Dobbs will be inserted at 3B for no-hit. Phills have to jump out to the lead-if not they will start pressing again.

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