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Sunday, September 16, 2007


Well at least it isn't May.

I feel real good about this game.

I see the Phils putting up around 10 runs, helped out by poor Mets defense.

Also, Dobbs will hit a PH grand slam. Book it.

Also, Jason, I know it's been a long game, but it isn't really Sept. 23 already, is it?

if only we could play the mets all 162 games throughout the year...

and hey - you gotta love getting 10 runs off of only 7 hits.

thank you mets defense!!

If form holds, we lose 2 of 3 in St.L, while Mutts reel off 6 straight wins.

ANyone know how to use SopCast to get the Padres game?

Unfortunately, the Padres will win today. At least the Dodgers are down 3-0.

Dude, don't waste your time.

THe Giants starting lineup today has a *combined* 42 HR on the year.

And you might as well shell out for MLB.TV at this point in the year.

The Padres-Giants game is a foregone conclusion. Their offense is horrendous and they have no Bonds today.

This was an ugly, ugly game. Incredibly poor defense and some bad starting pitching. Hell, it wasn't even really an offensive slugfest but pitching ineptitude by the Mets. How can you use 8 pitchers in a 9-inning game? Just ridiculous.

The only thing that made it worthwhile watching was a Phils' W.

You all know that St Louis is in the bottom of the 9th, 1 out, about to lose for the ninth time in 10 games. Phils can't take at least 2 of those games over here in STL, they don't deserve to play in Oct.

Wait, did this not get posted until after the game?

Hopefully, St. Louis will have thrown in the towel now.

Thome just hit his 500th and it was a walk-off. They came back from down 7-1.

Imagine that ....we swept the Mets and picked up exactly 0 ground on San Diego.

I seriously hate the Giants.

Ben - The Phils won a game or two extra this weekend -- this was their tough series. The Padres had an easy one. We'll pick up games when they play MIL, in the very least. And they won't sweep PIT and COL. Phils just have to keep winning.

Dodgers just made a base-running error. Looks like Phils could gain a game on them today.

kdon: I left my brain in Japan.

Dave Roberts just hit a one-out double, you never know.


Couldn't happen in a better way for a classy guy. As has been said before, Thome's in that very narrow class of athletes who always will be a Philadelphia favorite, even though they've moved on.

Sophist - will we make up games? How do you know that? We didnt last year I know when we were chasing SD and LAD that last week. Every game is tough now, we have to win them all, no matter who it is against.

I hope the Giants comeback, but I doubt it.

Ben - I don't know that we will, I was just putting the weekend in perspective. The Padres had an easy series this weekend.

Well I hope you are right. Either way, great weekend series by the Phils.

The Giants are a disgrace.
This is starting to be a replay of last year when the Padres and Dodgers' September opponents laid down.

Almost guaranteed the Giants won't score a run today against the Padres. Just take a look at the Giants lineup and all you need to know is that Pedro Feliz is hitting cleanup. In the Phils' lineup Feliz would either hit 7th or 8th just for comparison sake.

In fact, Giants are so boring this year that people I know are offering tickets for free during the week and still can't get people to accept them. Just don't have an everyday player worth seeing except when Bonds is in the lineup.

how many different ways can i say that the giants are atrocious and an utter disgrace. no way they take any games from the 6 altogether they play against LA and SD the rest of the season.
and judging from the games the last two nights, what i saw from bruce bochy's temperament and attitude make it seem he not only has thrown in the towel but also just doesn't care anymore this season.

my bad, the g-men also play arizona three more times, so that's 9 games they have remaining against 3 teams we're chasing for the wild card.
what can we do about it?? NOTHING - so let's just go out and take care of business on our end and hope for the best!

No that is why every game is so important the whole season. SF's lineup is a joke today. There is really nothing we can do except keep winning.

Congrats to Thome, I can't wait to check out the video.

An anonymous Met said, referring to the Phillies: "They save all their best bullets for us, then have nothing left."

That may be, but how do you explain it from the Mets' end?

Amazing weekend. The Mets sure looked sloppy today.

Love the headline, I used it to the same effect giving Jimmy his props on Friday night.

Man, Jimmy Rollins has become one of the most likable athletes in all of sports.

Let's go... Phils!

This game was more about the Mets stinking it up at home than the Phillies playing well. Eaton the excuse maker made another costly mistake when he had the 5-2 advantage. Plus, his pitch count was low. Instead, he serves it up again and they burn more bullpen.

Not to belittle the job Geary has done since his return, but it sounded on radio like the shadows factored in his last inning.

Dobbs has been a terrific pickup. 52 RBIs in 292 at bats from a waiver claim. That's outstanding.

I'm going to pick on Aaron Rowand now, even though he's had a fine season. People get on Howard for swinging at slop. He has nothing on Rowand. Rowand will swing at nearly everything high and away.

At this pace, doesn't even matter if the Phils keep winning.
They won 3 straight this weekend against a playoff team and make up zero ground on the WC.
The Phils may have a better chance of catching the Mets than the Padres at this rate.

yeah i dont think the Giants are going to pull it out today

Can I just say: Ouch! Did you see where Ailou took that ball that bounced up off the plate?

Nah, Crazy Jon. The Padres just played their easiest series, we played our toughest, and we kept pace with them. Our schedule's pretty soft from here on out, they still have games against the Brewers and Rockies. We can catch them. Not saying that we will, mind you, but we definitely have a shot.

I was working today and had to keep checking in - every time, there was a new Met error to chuckle about. Jose "MVP" Reyes has got to be the Phillies player of the game.

On a serious note: is Greg Dobbs not the Man?
He was, like, out of baseball. Amazing. The real reason why the baseball gods sent Gillick to the Phils (you know - in a perfect world). Now if they can send us a GM who knows how to acquire pitchers like that - that would be truly amazing.

@Tray: my concern is that the Phils tend to play their worst in their easiest series. (Hey, but maybe not this time, right?)

"Our schedule's pretty soft from here on out"

Tray, I hate to disagree, but the Phillies have 7 games against the Nats, a team that has given them fits the last couple of years, and the of course, the Cards and Braves who are dangerous teams and would love nothing better than to spoil the Phils' chances.

It ain't gonna be easy, not with this pitching staff.

I know there are not many Flash fans here, but we need him. Any word on his health after he gimped to the dugout?

Personally, I wonder if a Condrey appearance, or - gasp - Romero for the 8th would have made more sense for the big picture.

The Pods ain't gonna lose tommorrow either. Take a look at Benschoetten's (sp?) last four games - he looks worse than - gasp J.D. "don't tell clout I'm saying this" Durbin.

John Van Benschoten. Pirates' starter tommorrow versus the Pods. Career era 8.90.

Does anybody know what's up with Victorino. He hasn't played in a bit, I know he's been hurt. When is he going to come back/how is his leg?

The Cardinals haven't named a starter for tomorrow's game. It would be Anthony Reyes' turn but he lost his last outing to run his record to 2-14, 5.69... Maybe the Phils should pick him up?

I have been quite all year here on beerleaguer. Time to speak out. Because its time for the Phils to kick some more arse. Especially Washington's. It's very odd but always beating top teams like NY doesn't cut it. The boys have gotta step up and flog the cellar dwellers.

I believe the Phils can make if they want it bad enough.

They should just visualize every team they play from now on as wearing a mets uniform. Maybe that will keep them pumped.

Victorino keeps twitching his dodgy calf muscle. Each game he plays he seems to limp off slightly. The Phils are trying somewhat to keep him healthy by limiting his appearances.

Re Victorino: Manuel was quoted a couple of days ago as saying that, judging by the way Victorino limps off the field, he's hurt. Given the emergence of Werth and the deep bench, I think they're giving Victorino time to heal properly.

Not that you can count on other teams to help you, but the Giants really sucked this weekend

Bloodstripes/Afish- thanks. Can't wait til he's back. Love his arm, and his laid back but intense style.

At this point in the season, does the schedule really matter? I don't think any games are easy when you're in a pennant race with 2 weeks to go.

Can someone tell me why Gordon & Myers were used for the 3rd game in a row, with a 4-run lead, insuring they won't available tomorrow night in a game being started by Durbin? Did Cholly call LaRussa and say, "Look, we'll give you the first one"?

JW: At least Rowand had an important HR in this series. Howard didn't show up, and is having an abyssmal September. I would go so far as to say they ought to seriously consider not staring him against lefties the rest of the way.

Now, the question is whether the same thing will happen the last time the Phillies swept the Mets. The Mets used it as a wake-up call, and took off. The Phillies fell back into mediocrity. Can't happen again. The Dodgers and Padres will push each other the rest of the way. The Phillies have no margin for error now. It's amazing they're still here, but they're going to have to maintain every ounce of the intensity they showed this weekend. Whether the bullpen can keep up the pace they showed in the last three games is doubtful.

Incidentally, if Gordon is hurt, look for Geary to assume his role.

Jason, I believe it's "Everybody clap yo' hands."

Actually, it's "Clap Hands, Here Comes Charlie", or in this case, "Cholly"

RSB: Geary is not qualified for that role.

clout - Isn't Kendrick listed as tomorrow night's starter?

Probable pitchers for this series

Kendrick v Brad Thompson (6-5, 5.05 ERA)
Hamels v TBA
TBA v Wainwright (13-11, 3.71 ERA)

Sorry I missed all the fun... or all the Yakety Sax out there. Thanks for posting that, Run Up - it was a blast watching the condensed game with Keith Hernandez, six errors, and 11 walks, all while thinking of Benny Hill! We are definitely in their heads. At the same time, the Fightin's didn't lose theirs.

Can't bench Howard now. He absolutely mashes against St. Louis and in Busch Stadium. I guess it's the whole "coming home" thing. It reminds me of when Schmitty would be cold, then go into Wrigley Field, hit .450 for a series and have four homers.

Brad Thompson is now the announced pitcher for tomorrow against Kendrick. Eckstein is also red hot right now. We'll have to give him the Jose Reyes treatment. We have no announced pitcher for Wednesday.

clout: I didn't say he was. But we know about Manuel and the 'hot hand'.

Mike H - Isn't Schmidt from Ohio?

Sophist: They must be skipping Durbin. Smart move.

sophist: Right you are. Grew up in Dayton and went to Ohio University (not Ohio State).

"We’ll get our chance to come back and take care of these guys. They’re dancing around the field now, but we’ll see what happens when the time comes." - Paul Lo Duca, 8/31/07

Hate to say it but that 1.5 half lead the Padres have is going to be really tough to overcome even if the Phils play really well:

4 games vs. Pit (2-1 in 2007, 5-1 in 2006, 4-3 in 2005)
3 games vs. Col (8-7 in 2007, 9-10 in 2006, 11-7 in 2005)
3 games @ SF (11-3 in 2007, 7-12 in 2006, 12-7 in 2005)
4 games @ Mil (3-0 in 2007, 5-1 in 2006, 4-3 in 2005)

Given how well the Padres have played at home and how well they have played against SF and Mil, I see the Padres going 4-3/5-2 in their 7 home games and going 4-3/5-2 on their final 7 road games.

Basically, it means the Padres will likely finish 8-6 to 10-4 in their final 14 games. At, 81 wins currently, it means the Padres are going to end up with 89-91 wins.

It is going to take an amazing run by the Phils to make the playoffs and they are going to have to play a better clip than at any point they have this season.

Unfortunately, it means the Phils are going to be home yet again come Oct. 1 when the playoffs begin.

My point was that Schmidt could go from cold to hot in four days just from Wrigley. Howard could do the same. Every Phillies fan on this board knows Mike Schmidt is from Ohio. Don't insult my intelligence by implying that I don't know that.

"Unfortunately, it means the Phils are going to be home yet again come Oct. 1 when the playoffs begin."

Sorry MG if I don't take your prediction to "mean" squat.

We'll see what happens, and the Phils have certainly put themselves in a hole by their inconsistent play earlier, but they have a descent shot.

The key is the Nats. By talent alone, they should take 5 or 6 out of 7, but we saw how easily that went last year.

The Cards and Braves are cooked though. A lot depends in if we see Hudson and Smoltz; those guys are competitors and won't roll over.

Just checked the Braves rotation, and as it stands now, we would catch Hudson but not Smoltz...

Unless...the Braves decide to skip whatever loser 5th pitcher they are using now (they have an off day the Monday before the Phils series) and pitch Hudson and Smoltz on their regular 4 days rest.

Given that Cox is the anti-Bochy, and that they play a meaningless series against Houston after the Phils, I think you can expect that we will see both. Ugh!

Thanks a bunch Giants. Just mail in the rest of the season, and be done with it.

The Pads get a soft touch in Van BanSchotten (sp) tomorrow. But, then they face Gorzelanny, Snell and Matt Morris. All are capable. And, unlike the Giants, the Pirates are still showing some kind of life. I think they will at least give an effort.

Again, the Phils best bet is to have Milwaukee continue to stay close with the Cubs in the Central race. That 4 game series that SD has to end the season with Milwaukee, could be very difficult, should Milwaukee still be in the hunt. That place will be wild and those will be tough games.

I still could see the D-Backs falling apart down the stretch. They just lost 2 of 3 to LA, and play them again next weekend. Their schedule gets really easy the last week, although they are on the road.

And, the Dodgers are not out of it either. But, with the lack of games left with San Diego and already 2 1/2 back, they have a tough road.

One last thing about the Phils... Enough with Adam Eaton. Its not happening with him, no matter how much cash they are paying him. I don't want to see him pitch another inning, as a starter, the rest of the year. Enough. Put anyone out there at this point. Give Carlos Carrasco or J.A. Happ a start next weekend in Washington. What would be any difference in starting one of them and continuing to run Eaton out there? Eaton won't last more than 5 innings, without giving up at least 4 runs anyway (check the stats; its amazing how "consistant" that guy has been). Those guys could at least do that "well", couldn't they? And, who knows? You just might get a 6 inning, 2 run perfomance (which Eaton hasn't done since June, BTW). You never know. You do with Eaton though.

If the Yanks can bring up Ian Kennedy or the the Red Sox can use Clay Bucholtz or the Pads can use the rookie they are starting tomorrow night or the Tigers can pitch Jaar Jurrjins (from AA) in their rotation in playoff-like games, then why can't the Phils do something like that? BTW, those guys are doing a good job. At this point, why not? Ohh, that's right, some other organizations actually trust their prospects. We only seem to want to use ours when we are forced to.

8 wins in a row over the rival Mets - that has to be the record in the history of this series between these two teams - maybe jason or clout has that info, but these two Mets series have made every bitter loss to a lesser team worthwhile. You know the Mets are shaking in their boots about the prospects of seeing the Phils in the NLCS. This team is so fun to watch - keep it going guys!

Mike H - Don't get all hot and bothered there. Chill out. You're analogy just seemed to imply that Schmidt would go home to Wrigley and get hot just as Howard goes home to St Louis. You said:

"Can't bench Howard now. He absolutely mashes against St. Louis and in Busch Stadium. I guess it's the whole "coming home" thing. It reminds me of when Schmitty would be cold, then go into Wrigley Field, hit .450 for a series and have four homers."

Can't you see how easily this could be read this way? I thought you knew something about his connection to Chicago that I did not.

MG - There's no question the Phils will have to be amazing to get into the post-season. However, I am not sure the Padres next two weeks will be as easy as this weekend. The Padres had only won 3 out of their last 10 before facing the hapless Giants, and I think the Rockies, Pirates, and Brewers play them tough. They may be get to 90 wins anyway, but they'd have to play well.

On the Phillies website it says Eaton stays in the rotation and Durbin goes out. Pick your poison I suppose. We got what we got at this point.

All I know is that when I think about Brett Myers coming into a game, closing it out and clinching a playoff berth, I tear up. 15 years - do it, guys, make this city go absolutely insane.

kdon - "We'll see what happens, and the Phils have certainly put themselves in a hole by their inconsistent play earlier, but they have a descent shot."

Actually, the Phils have been very inconsistent this entire month and are only 8-6 even with the Mets' sweep.

At this point, the Phils are going to need to go at least 8-5 or 9-4 at a minimum to catch the Padres and that means going at least 5-2 on this upcoming road trip against the Cards and Nats.

Possible - sure but the Phils don't have a decent shot at the playoffs. Still on the outside looking in and they need some help from a couple of unlikely teams.

I don't mean to be so pessimistic but I am just tired of watching this team come up short constantly in Sept. It amazes how quickly people seem to forget that this team pissed away the momentum from the 4-game sweep against the Mets earlier this month by dropping 2 of 3 against a woeful Marlins teams and a struggling Braves team.

While this team has been very interesting to watch and fun to root for, I will consider anything less than making the playoffs a total failure.

I don't mean to be so pessimistic but I am just tired of watching this team come up short constantly in Sept. It amazes how quickly people seem to forget that this team pissed away the momentum from the 4-game sweep against the Mets earlier this month by dropping 2 of 3 against a woeful Marlins teams and a struggling Braves team.

While this team has been very interesting to watch and fun to root for, I will consider anything less than making the playoffs a total failure.

I don't understand, MG, why in order to go 8-5 we must go 5-2 on the road trip. We could go 4-3 and take 4 of the games at home.

Tray - Because the Braves have played the Phils tough all year and it is going to be hard to even take 2 of 3 against them and I don't see the Phils sweeping a pesky Nats team either in the final 3 games either.

Basically means the Phils have to take care of business against a Cards team that has shown nothing the past 2 weeks and take 3 of 4 against the Nats.

I don't think it would be a problem to sweep Washington at home if that were necessary. It's that series at RFK which worries me most of the remaining four. They are taken out of their game in that ballpark.

I agree with MG: it will be very, very tough to make up ground at this point even if they keep winning. Not ruling it out but the odds appear against it.

Well I think one way or another, we'll take four of those games at home. Two teams we're better than playing for nothing on the road against a team fighting for a playoff spot in front of some very excited fans (hopefully).

Last year the Padres went 10-4 in their last 14 games. If that happens again, the Phils can only afford 2 more losses if they want to see the post season.

2 losses over 13 games. This team has not gone 11-2 at any point all reason.

It's time to get desperate ...

It's time to go to a four-man rotation.

It's hysterical that with 2 weeks left in the season and the Phils being 1.5 games behind in the wild card and 3.5 games out of first place, that people are already giving them little or no chance of winning anything!

From's Nick Cafardo
High prices to pay.

"The Red Sox weren't alone in signing a stinker or two in free agency. The Phillies signed Adam Eaton to a three-year, $24.5 million deal and got 9-9, 6.31 out of it. The Dodgers signed Jason Schmidt to a three-year, $47.4 million deal, and he was 1-4, 6.31 before undergoing a scope on his shoulder June 20. The Yankees posted $26 million on Japanese lefty Kei Igawa. The Orioles gave reliever Danys Baez three years, $19 million. The Giants gave Barry Zito $126 million for seven years and he's produced a 9-12 record and a 4.46 ERA. There are a lot more where they came from."

I guess it could be worse w/ Zito's contract. By the way does anyone think Eaton would have turned down 16 mil. over 2 years. I'm so happy he threw in the 3rd year. FU Gillick!!!

I don't know who the Padres played last year, but they're a different team this year and it's a whole different 14 games. I mean, that should go without saying. It's more likely that they'll go 8-6 than 10-4.


The '06 Padres went 10-4
The '05 Astros went 9-5
The '04 Astros went 11-3
The '03 Marlins went 8-6
The '02 Giants went 11-3

I'm not trying to be a pessimist. I just think the Phils are going to running out of time to make up ground.

I hope I'm wrong and I hope you're right, but I think they're going to need 11 more victories.

J.R. - I don't know if the Phils need 11 wins but they probably are going to need to least least go 9-4 and get a little help.

Even though he is probably a very nice man, can someone go and kneecap Eaton so the Phils are forced to give Happ a start against Washington or at least use a 4 man rotation.

Bring on some 10 spots Phillies!

The Phils sweep the Mets and low and behold what do I get in my email - a "Chase the Wild Card with the Phillies" which includes "Register now for your chance to purchase tickets for potential Phillies postseason games. NLDS registration ends Sept. 19 at noon."

At least I give credit to the Phils' marketing dept. this season. They definitely have found a great number of ways to market this team with creative promotions and giveaways this season.

It's going to be a crazy ride for the next two weeks so buckle your seat belts.

Sorry, I know they simply have to take care of business, but I can't help thinking about where they would be now if:

-they hadn't had that crazy loss in Atlanta (less than a 1 in 500 chance to blow that lead)

-they hadn't had such an abysmal start in April

-Adam Eaton had pitched even halfway near what he was capable of doing

-the ongoing litany of injuries (does anyone track how this compares statistically to other teams?)

-they hadn't followed up the Mets sweep by falling flat on their faces

On and on and on...

Time for Ryan Howard now to stand up and flash that MVP form and carry the team for the next two weeks. Also hope Chase can keep the heat on for a couple more weeks. I get the uneasy sense he's in the early stages of a little tailspin. He always snaps out of slumps, but he's been so consistent and good all year, I keep waiting for the shoe to drop and have him finish the year at about .320 -.325 rather than .330 - .340.

If I hear one more whine about the trials and tribulations of being a Red Sox fan...

Just one more opportunity to crow about yesterday's win:

"I'm definitely upset," Mets third baseman David Wright said. "I'm disappointed. They talked it before the season, and they've definitely backed it up the last two series.... They've embarrassed us." (from Zolecki's article this morning)

If the past few seasons are an indicator at least 2 of the WC teams will get hot over the next 2 weeks. We have to hope one of them is the Phillies and the other is NOT the Padres.

Regarding the Nats, over the past 3 months they are 34-34. That makes them far from the worst team in the NL.

My favorite quote in today's newspapers comes from Chase Utley:
"We should have that same focus regardless of who we play."


I wasn't trying to say the Phils have suddenly become a consistent winner; far from it.

Just that *any* team down 1 1/2 games with 13 to play has a good shot.

I'd put their odds at 30%.

Let's check B-Pro...

Alright, I'm (shockingly) in sync with the computer simulation.

% Chance of Wildcard: 29.0
% Chance of Division: 5.3

Nats are also 8-6 this month, although much better at home than on the road, as RSB notes. They have 4 home games with Phils next weekend and end season with 3 games at CBP.

And, based on B-Pro simulations, the Wildcard winner finishes with an average of 88.8 wins.

To get to 89, Phils have to go:

My prediction:

9-4 gets them to a one-game tiebreaker, 10-3 gets them the WC outright.

Wright's embarassed because they lost to Eaton Crap. This series coming up is the telling one. Will they resort to their normal letdown and drop 2 or 3 in this series, or will they "man up" and continue winning? With the pitching corps in shambles, continuing to win will be tough unless the bats keep delivering.

I stepped off the Phillies to Playoffs bus in Atlanta a few weeks back. I'm debating getting back on. I discussed it with my wife last night. She said, "Are you crazy?! You'll surely be disappointed again, and be in a bad mood for a month!" I'm waivering.

On the Junior to Houston GM front, I heard on the Houston Flagship station KTRH, that the Astros have interviewed ELEVEN candidates for the job! I guess they haven't focused in on a main choice and gone after him. I don't think Amaro's odds of leaving Philly for Houston look very good for us.

BTW, clout, I love the cut off date of "this month"

Before Sept. 1, the Nats had lost 9 in a row, and 12 out of 15.

And their home success this month has been against the two biggest dog teams in the NL: Florida and San Fransisco.

denny b: Good post. I've yet to read anything that says why Happ isn't with the team. Frankly, Carrasco's K/BB ratio in AA suggests he's not ready for MLB competition. I'm not wild about Happ's either, but he played with the worst AAA team in all of baseball (Ottawa) and has at least a taste of The Show. Give him one start in place of Eaton.

I've been collecting some of the better newspaper covers this year after Phils' wins. Anyone know which paper has the best one today? Daily News seems to have "Bobbles and Dobbs" but I have no idea what the others have. (I'm up in Boston BTW, so I can't run down to Wawa and check 'em out.) Too bad all the NYC papers will be covering the Yanks, it would have been nice to mix it up with a sky-is-falling NYPost back page.

Sorry, that should have read "Nats had lost *7* in a row, and 12 out of 15."

kdon: And most of those August losses were against who? The best teams in the NL: Mets, Dodgers, Rockies, Phillies. So your sample is as misleading as mine. Mine is more recent, for what it's worth.

In terms of sample size, I think the past 3 months are instructive.

The Pads got the job done against the pitiful San Fran Giants, I had no idea how bad the giants are but they are a disgrace...The good news for the phillies, is that the pirates have a good lineup and can score runs...Peavy pitched yesterday so he won't pitch against the bucos....Lets take 2 from the cards and hopefully gain a game from the pads!!! GO PHILS

joe l: try if you already don't know about it, they have on-line front pages of most major u.s. newsapers( printable forms) and links to their sites, i don't think they show back pages or sports sections but the links should help

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