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Wednesday, September 26, 2007


One ray of hope:

While Hudson has pitched fairly well this month, in general he has posted below average Sept. numbers in his career.

You have to go all the way back to 2002 to the last time that he posted dominant numbers in Sept. Makes sense and I know that the A's were always worried that Hudson's mechanics/build were a reason that he wore down a bit as the season progressed.

Here is hoping that Hudson doesn't bring his "A" game stuff because the Phils won't have a shot tonight if he does.

Reposting from previous thread:

In my view, the Braves have colossally underachieved this year.

No way Werth should start the next two games. Manuel has to go to Bourn, or possibly Victorino even if he's 60%. Werth isn't going to do a thing against Hudson or Smoltz. Those three righties down towards the bottom - Rowand, Werth, Ruiz - have not been giving the Phillies much and Manuel needs to break that up with a LH contact bat. But will he? I doubt it.

I'm glad Rollins' 30/30 has been mentioned here, because it shouldn't be lost in the shuffle the was it has. That's a major accomplishment. In the earlier part of the decade, I thought that he might push 20 homers someday. Instead, he's gone on to become one of the best players in all of baseball.

Here we go again. Hoping against hope that the Phils can pull yet another couple of miracles out of their bag of tricks. But as I look at Lohse setting up against Hudson, and all the pressure on the Phils (if last night's game was a must win, which it was, what is tonight?) I don't have a good feeling. Braves seem confident and to be playing with a sort of "Even though the Phils are ahead of us, we all know we're really the better team, let's have a little fun & show those CBP yokels where to stick it" 'tude. It's going to be a nervous/frustrating/exhilarating/whatever six or seven hours.

More reason for pessimism: the Padres have Jake Peavy on the mound tonight against the horifically bad Giants' offense. The only good news is that at least Bonds will be back in the lineup & highly motivated, since this is the last home game of his Giants career. I'm no Bonds fan, but I will be tonight -- and not because it's his last home game.

Just for the hell of it, my understanding of how a 3-way WC tie would be determined:

-- Assuming the 3 teams are Pads,Rox and Phils: Rox won season series from Pads (10-8) and Phils (4-3). Phils won over Pads (4-3).
-- Teams are designated A, B & C. B plays at A on Mon., 10/1. Winner plays at home against C on Tues. 10/2.
-- Rox get to choose which designation they want: A, B or C.
-- Phils choose between the two remaining.
-- Pads get what's left.

As GM, given this scenario, which would you choose? Team A to get home field, but have to win two games to get into the playoffs, or Team C, playing 1 winner-take-all game on the road?

I think it's pretty obviously C, to get the day off and take a slightly more-rested pitching staff into the Tuesday game. But playing at home is a big plus.

Other thoughts? (This has never happened, has it?)

diggity: one rockies player helpd with the tarp - LaTroy Hawkins.

Hawkins is a mediocre middle reliver who's a free agent this year. Since arriving in Colorado he's learned how to throw ground balls. Maybe we should sign him. Of course his command sucks, but around here, that's a standard expectation.

(I'm not serious. But karma...)

(Karma might mean he's the winning pitcher in colorado's next five games, too.)

Werth is 3 for his last 23 with 12 K's.

If Vic is healthy, give him the start tonight. Put as many lefties in the lineup as possible against Hudson. McCann can't throw, so putting speed at the top of the order would be smart.

Vic was having a hell of a year. It seems some in the organization (the manager) have forgotten it.

Dobbs usually bats between Rowand and Werth, true. But not much from him, either.

Perhaps Manuel doesn't feel Bourn can play right field? He doesn't have an arm for it. But I think the point is moreover to generate more offense against tough right-handed pitching. I would hit him eighth, or Victorino sixth.

Sam Fan: If you're San Diego, who wouldn't get to choose, you want home field, because their stadium is the most unlike anyone else's. But I'm guessing, if I were Colorado, I'd choose the one game away, one game, obviously, is easier to win than two games. So the Phils might have to play two games but get them both at the Zen.

Really, Jason, on the NCAA ad, I want about 5 more seconds of the cheerleaders dancing - can't you talk to them?

Hudson against teams over .500 this year...

7-7 record
112 IP
54 ER

He has feasted on the light-hitting, bad teams.

Get after him.

Lohse against teams over .500 ths year...

4-5 record
101 IP
54 ER

Not much difference between him and Hudson's numbers.

denny b - good research.

Since Any wants cheerleaders, Jason should have a continuous 15 minute cheerleader loop floating screen that follows us down the page as we scroll to make comment #598 in each thread.

I can't type worth an Eaton Crap. I meant "Since Andy wants cheerleaders".

Yeah good research denny b. Phillies phans finding ways to optimistic. Wow. I'm going out on alimb here.......I say Phils win today.

Lake Fred - Thats a great idea.

Smoltz is 8-4 against teams over .500 with 47 ER in 125 IP.

Kendrick is 4-3 against teams over .500 with 26 ER in 55 IP (more in line with Hudson's numbers).

Hamels, just for fun, is 6-3 against teams over .500 with numbers similar to Smoltz.


1. J Rollins, SS
2. C Utley, 2B
3. P Burrell, LF
4. R Howard, 1B
5. A Rowand, CF
6. G Dobbs, 3B
7. J Werth, RF
8. C Ruiz, C
9. K Lohse, P

1. K Johnson, 2B
2. E Renteria, SS
3. C Jones, 3B
4. M Teixeira, 1B
5. B McCann, C
6. J Francoeur, RF
7. A Jones, CF
8. M Diaz, LF
9. T Hudson, P

Vic has to be hurting real bad for Werth to be starting tonight

I love the no-Nunez line up!!!

I think the positive spin on the Peavy start is that he would not be slated to toe the rubber against the Brewers, a far tougher series. I'm willing to concede a Pads win tonight (better yet, a Peavy loss could be HUGE), coupled with a motivated Brew-crew getting the rest of the staff and depleted Bradley/Cameron-less lineup.

Of course, the obvious downside would be Peavy's likelihood to pitch in a tie break game. Scary.

Being as I have thrown in the towel on the Phillies no fewer than 4,856 times this season, I wouldn't expect anything less than the dramatics with which it will take to pull off a postseason appearance. For some reason, there is nothing about cheering for the Philadelphia Phillies that would lead me to believe it would be any different than exactly this.

Cholly's saving No Hit Nuni for late innning crucial pinch hitting for Alfonseca. The lineup does look front loaded, which is a good thing.

On this latest stint in Houston, I was sure to bring my Saints cap (big waste) for Monday night football, but left my fine red Phillies brim on my dresser top in Louisiana. Drats! Go Phillies. I'll be computerless tonight. Carry on withou me.

I said a few days ago that the rest of the season would be almost all luck... and it still is mostly luck. Don't get too worked up about every team's matchups, just enjoy the ride.

Thats it Dave X. Enjoy the ride for what it is. The way we hang hope and happiness on external things we can't control like Phillies wins is fraught with danger. At least these games are meaningful and the Phils still are a big chance.

1) Can anyone calling for Vic tell me he's healthy? When was the last time he spent an inning in the field? Last time he was on base, Helms pinch ran for him.

2) Werth has 2 hits in 6 AB aganist Hudson in his career. Small sample size, but it's not like he hasn't had any success.

3) If Vic's still able to swing a bat, but it's the sustained running that's a problem, it sure is nice to have a switch hitting bat to bring off the bench.

Dave X: Dead on.

It's not about games that we're supposed to win or supposed to lose. No game is played on paper.

It's about the games we actually win or lose... and the games against Smoltz and Hudson haven't been played yet. If this team does often play to the level of the competition, tonight's a good night to show it!

Dave X, then let's hope that Cholly will do his best to keep luck on the Phils' side. In my opinion, the skills dictated the game last night.

Billy Mac: The skills usually help dictate the game... but had something broken the other way, the game could have been very different. For instance, had that strike call gone the other way... no three run homer for Texieria, and who knows how the game plays out.

You make your breaks, I get that... but when the margin is this close, you need the breaks.

Fasten your seat belts. It's gonna be a bumpy night!

Better start getting that fastball down, Kyle.


A put-out pitch! Didn't think we'd see that tonight against anyone except the 9-spot. Funny to see Renteria try to call time there when he was out by a mile. . .

So far so good!!!

Perfect pitch, he had thrown him all hard stuff and then dove a changeup away from him on the outer half. A better start tonight.

Let's go, Mr. MVP

So much for keeping him off the bases!!!

Will he hit a double to lead off tomorrow?

wow - 1 shy of the 30-20-30-30

Woo-hoo! Now that J-Roll has 30n HRs guess he's workin on the 3bs.

As Steely Dan once said, Hey, 19!" (triples)

Notice how Rollins doesn't go after bad pitches any more? That's the whole difference in his game the last two years.


What the heck, I was looking down, what happened there?

Jeez, of all times for Smith to play it conservatively!

WTF!!! god damn umpires, SEND HIM THERE SMITH

actually, 1 triple and 2 doubles short of a 30 HR, 20 triple, 40 double, 35+ SB season - damn.

I'm sorry, you have to send Rollins there. You don't want to leave it up to Burrell against Hudson.

Wow, the Phils are getting no Home Ballpark friendly calls yet this series

Steve Smith is the same damn bonehead he was in April. Ridiculous! Who else in the ballpark doesn't send the runner there?! ARGH

Leave it to Howard.


If they don't get Rollins home, I'm going to put my fist through this computer monitor.

did rowand just take a pitch?

Stupidity reigns. Why do you pitch to Howard there? Are you dense, Cox? Rowand's swinging at hot dog wrappers up there.

BAP, it's too early to break your monitor. Wait a while

Stupid Phillips don't forget we got a few HRs out of 2B. Moron

These umpires have to call this game a hell of alot better then last night and so far , no dice

Howard just saved me the $300 cost of a new monitor.

JD: Actually, the appropriate time to break my monitor was after last night's game. So if I had done it now, it wouldn't have been too early, but too late.

Nice, getting some breaks. Lets break Hudson, AKA "Zed."

Here's to hoping that the Braves start to field like the Met's did.

The Phillies are getting some good swings at Hudson early.

Mets 3-0... Beltran and Alou homered.

BAP, good point, but since you didnt do it last night, might as well keep it a little while longer

Mets 3-0 in the 1st

Mets 3-0 B1.

Hope we get that call all night, too.

Zed's wounded, but not dead yet.

Ouch ! Well, they got on the board early, so it's a good start

Dobbs is making a quick rise up my Phillies sh*t list.

I don't think Rollins' decision not to run had anything to do with Smith. He did go afterall, and then turned back all on his own. No way Smith is yelling at him to come back there. He was watching the whole way.

I can't believe Howard made contact on that ball and managed to hit it hard up the middle. For all his strikeouts, he hits some nasty pitches very well.

Burrell was ruined by the check-swing call. ESPN didn't even bother to show the replay, so I don't know if it was close. But it certainly made things difficult.

Hudson threw 22 pitches that inning, went through to the Phils 6th batter. Lohse is getting ahead of batters, and then letting them hang in, as usual.

BAP, he hasn't had a lot of hits lately (As in, early this week) but I don't know what you wanted him to do with that pitch. Nobody was hitting that pitch, just have to hope it is called a ball. I thought it was a ball.

Nice pitching by Lohse

Nice pitch!

- The thing that killed the Phils last night was that Atlanta got a little life breathed into them. I would like it better if they were just playing out the string.

- The team that scares me the most though, we're not even playing. The Rockies are doing just that. Rockin it right now.

- A big game by Lohse might mean the difference of signing him or not for next year? Any thoughts?

The Burrell call wasn't a good call. He didnt go around

Right JD. And Moyer got screwed last night by NOT getting the strike calls either. The umps have a natural bias towards the Braves, reigning NL East power and all.

Nice pitching Lohse.

Another excellent pitch by Lohse.

Lohse has gotten a few swinging strikes on that low breaker.

Ah...the old Juan Samuel strikeout pitch.

Hopefully, Boras has the heat on Lohse to pitch well for the rest of the year.

lohse is dealin'. at least for now. peter gammons has always spoken glowingly of his stuff, its just yet to materialize. let's hope it does for 5 more innings tonite. with the heat, i could see a few more phils runs having this braves team pack it in. come on bats!

We need the "Black Hole" to pull in Hudson.

Sophist, that looked like the coach's call to me. Though it isn't possible to definitively tell from our vantage points. If you're Rollins, I think you have to go a little further down the line there.

It worked out okay, so it doesn't matter now, but it could have been a bad mistake. This is no time to play back on your heels. With Rollins' speed, that's a risk you need to take.

Lohse's breaking ball looking good tonight, but I'm not counting on it to stick around.

Beautiful hit by Howard...those are the kind of hits that drove his average above .300 last year. Not sure why Cox would pitch to him there instead of Rowand.

Must be a full moon. Ruiz just took the first 4 pitches.

RSB - I don't know if it was a mistake or not, but it didn't seem obvious to me whether it was Rollins' call or Smith's influence just from watching.

To me, it looked like Rollins put the brakes on.

RSB: "A little further down the Line"

What do you mean by that? He was tagging, so he had to be back to the bag before he could start running. Although I'm not sure that is what you are talking about. If you mean that he needed to get closer to the plate, I think he thought that McCann was going to catch that ball on the line. If that did happen then he would have easily been tagged out. I'm just not clear on what you are saying.

i just threw up watching that SD highlight

I meant Rollins has to come down farther to gauge what kind of throw it is. After he'd tagged up, obviously. It was in the air a long time and it was a fly out off the bat.

renteria definitely wasn't this good for Boston

I know it's early, but Lohse looks good so far.

Again, what the heck!?

If Chipper gets out then Teixera better get beamed next inning.

Another one. Amazing.

I'd rather wait and bean Hudson.

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