Game chat: Time for Eaton to man up, make pitches

On the heels of their Major League-leading 47th comeback win, the Phils try to gain ground in the division when they play the second of four at RFK. Adam Eaton (9-9, 6.36) and Shawn Hill (4-4, 3.01) are scheduled. Elsewhere, the Mets and Marlins meet in Miami.

Eaton by the numbers: You may want to sidle up to the trashcan. Here are the numbers on Eaton, pictured right during his winter job selling time shares. He's winless in his last eight starts. He’s pitched 6.0 or more innings in only two of his last 10. He’s 2-5 with a 7.49 ERA (61 ER, 73.1 IP) and .331 BAA since June 23. How many pitchers have been more disgraceful than Eaton this season, according to Baseball Prospectus? Twenty-three, out of 715. Putting it in perspective, Jose Mesa has him beat by 11 spots, and that’s the Detroit version.

Hill by the numbers: Another talented young Nationals pitcher completely off the radar. How does he do it? The 26-year-old throws a power sinker, leading to a 2/1 GB/FB ratio (156/78), according to STATS Inc. That would rank 7th in the NL if he hadn’t missed time with injury. The Phillies struggle with this type of pitcher, and Hill has had success against them; this will be his 5th career start against the Phils.

Romero by the numbers: Like Greg Dobbs and Jayson Werth, here’s another supporting cast member deserving special recognition. J.C. has pitched 9.2 scoreless innings over his last 13 outings. He’s only allowed 2 hits in 29 at-bats (.069) during that span. He’s holding opponents to a .054 average (2-37) over his last 17 appearances (12.2 IP).

Getting it done: Speaking of Romero, the list continues to grow among players who’re meeting or exceeding expectations. Subjectively, I’d include Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Aaron Rowand, Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Dobbs, Werth, Carlos Ruiz, Tadahito Iguchi, Chris Coste, Jamie Moyer, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick and Romero on the list of players meeting or exceeding expectations. Players like J.D. Durbin aren't worth mentioning. I’d argue that at this point, nobody is truly underachieving with the exception of Eaton. Even the middle relief, including Tom Gordon, appears to be improving.

The depth of this list is a credit to the manager. Right now, Charlie Manuel has to be considered a strong candidate for manager of the year, whether you agree or not.

J-Roll’s chase for MVP: The press notes have been including a handy Jimmy Rollins/Lenny Dykstra breakdown, comparing Rollins' projected season in ’07 with Dykstra in ’93. Here’s the short version:

Mets/Marlins: In Florida, Pedro Martinez (2-0, 1.69) and Scott Olsen (9-14, 6.06) are scheduled in the second game of that series. Remember that Baseball Prospective list I referenced earlier? Olsen was one of the 23 pitchers below Eaton. Mets take this one.

Happy Chico Ruiz Day: Finally, be sure to check out Will Bunch’s detailed retelling of the most notorious event in Philadelphia sports history, 43 years to the day after Reds rookie journeyman Chico Ruiz stole home, triggering the infamous 10-game losing streak in 1964. Complete with pictures, graphs, links. The works. [Link]

Comments

[Crazy Jon]

Re-posted from previous thread (since I enjoy hitting leadoff).

Here's a list of the major Ed Wade moves, also from MLB Trade Rumors:
12-23-97: Traded Mickey Morandini to Cubs for Doug Glanville
Failed to sign J.D. Drew; drafted Pat Burrell first overall in 1998
11-19-98: Traded Ricky Bottalico and Garrett Stephenson to Cardinals for Ron Gant, Jeff Brantley, and Cliff Politte
11-13-98: Traded Jerry Spradlin for Chad Ogea
5-5-99: Traded Paul Spoljaric to Blue Jays for Robert Person
Drafted Brett Myers 12th overall in 1999
11-10-99: Traded Steve Montgomery, Carlton Loewer, and Adam Eaton to Padres for Andy Ashby
12-7-99: Signed Mike Jackson to be closer (spent entire year on DL)
7-12-00: Traded Ashby to Braves for Jimmy Osting and Bruce Chen
Drafted Chase Utley 15th overall in 2000
7-26-00: Traded Curt Schilling to Diamondbacks for Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, Travis Lee, and Vicente Padilla
7-29-00: Traded Gant to Angels for Kent Bottenfield
Drafted Gavin Floyd 4th overall in 2001
Fired Terry Francona, hired Larry Bowa
2000: Signed Ricky Bottalico, Rheal Cormier, and Jose Mesa
1-29-01: Signed Paul Byrd
6-5-01: Traded Byrd to Royals for Jose Santiago
Drafted Ryan Howard in 5th round in 2001
7-27-01: Traded Chen for Dennis Cook and Turk Wendell
Signed Terry Adams
7-29-02: Traded Scott Rolen for Bud Smith, Mike Timlin, and Placido Polanco
Drafted Cole Hamels 17th overall in 2002
2-20:02: Signed Bobby Abreu to five-year, $64MM extension
11-24-02: Signed David Bell to a four-year, $17MM contract
12-3-02: Signed Jim Thome to a six-year, $85MM contract in December 2002
12-20-02: Traded Johnny Estrada to Braves for Kevin Millwood
2-3-03: Signed Pat Burrell to a six-year, $50MM contract in February 2003
11-3-03: Traded Brandon Duckworth, Taylor Buchholz, and Ezequiel Astacio to Astros for Billy Wagner
12-3-03: Traded Carlos Silva, Nick Punto, and a PTBNL to Twins for Eric Milton
12-9-03: Signed Tim Worrell in December 2003
Drafted Greg Golson 21st overall in 2004
8-9-04: Traded Elizardo Ramirez, Javon Moran and Joe Wilson for Cory Lidle
12-3-04: Traded Felix Rodriguez to Yankees for Kenny Lofton
12-8-04: Signed Jon Lieber to a three-year, $21MM contract in December of 2004
12-13-04: Selected Shane Victorino from Dodgers in Rule V draft
5-14-05: Traded Marlon Byrd to Nationals for Endy Chavez
6-8-05: Traded Placido Polanco to Tigers for Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez
6-13-05: Signed Jimmy Rollins to a five-year, $40MM extension in June 2005

IMHO, more misses than hits here.
I completely forgot about Chad Ogea and Kent Bottenfield.
If I'm not mistaken, Ramirez and Moran both saw time in the majors this year as well.
The worst deal on this list may be the deal to the Twins for Milton - even though Milton had a decent record his one season here, his ERA was poor and the two players traded could have come in handy in filling recent needs in the rotation and at 3B.
Plenty of bad deals to compete for that honor, however.

[Ribbies]

Wow, I don't think I've ever seen Eaton without his cap. Who does his highlights?

[Ribbies]

Also Jason, I don't think you included the Rollins/Dykstra comparison. Unless you wanted an extremely shortened version.

[J. Weitzel]

Oops. It's up.

[Crazy Jon]

Weitzel: Are those projected numbers for Rollins through 162 games?

[J. Weitzel]

Yes - forgot to include that, too. Thanks.

[Ribbies]

And to think Jimmy doing it without 'roids.

(Or at least I hope he is.)

[Crazy Jon]

He's too roly-poly to be on any juice other than apple or orange.

[J. Weitzel]

The Eaton picture was slected as a courtesy to the lovely lady Beerleaguers out there.

You're welcome, ladies. I little bit of Adam. Taste the forbidden fruit.

[Willard Preacher]

Ah yes, the lovely lady Beerleaguers.

I'd venture a guess that the significant other of any Beerleaguer regular probably roots against the Phils, in secret.

[Mike H.]

Jason - No Myers in your list?

[RSB]

Looking at that list, I'd have to say that signing - and keeping - David Bell was probably the worst thing Wade ever did.

[bathtubhippo]

that picture of eaton is pure gold.

[yt]

His deals were pretty aweful, but to give credit where credit is due, the guy drafted alright.

drafted Pat Burrell first overall in 1998 - C
Drafted Brett Myers 12th overall in 1999 - B
Drafted Chase Utley 15th overall in 2000 - A+
Drafted Gavin Floyd 4th overall in 2001 - D-
Drafted Ryan Howard in 5th round in 2001 - A+
Drafted Cole Hamels 17th overall in 2002 - A
Drafted Greg Golson 21st overall in 2004 - INC
Selected Shane Victorino from Dodgers in Rule V draft - B+

[Sophist]

Reading those numbers from left to right, it's surprising that Nails, if the projections are accurate, scored more runs that year than Jimmy will this year. 80 fewer AB. 20 fewer hits, 13 fewer triples, 11 fewer HR. . . . And then you see OBP. Nails OBP in 93 was .420! Ridiculous. His BA is only .011 higher but his OBP. was almost .80 higher. No Roids are getting you any walks (unless they're intentional). I'm guessing he didn't get that many IBB that year.

Of course, Runs are hugely dependent (with the exception of HR and, to some extent 3B) on who hits behind you, but JRoll has no real disadvantage there either.

[ill]

they couldn't project 1 more triple for Rollins? Thats BS.

[Sophist]

make that .080 higher. typo.

[CJ]

If Rollins goes 40-20-30-40-100 and hits .300... can he not be the MVP?

Is that unprecedented?

[CJ]

That's actually 40-20-30-40-140-100-.300(doubles, triples, home runs, stolen bases, runs, RBI and average).

What a season... not to mention gold glove caliber short stop.

[Sophist]

Dykstra earned 129 BB and 9 IBB that year (in 637 AB, in 160 games).

Rollins has earned 48, and has been IBB 5 times (in 677 AB in 153 games).

Though their steals are very similar, Rollins has only been CS 6 times this year. Dykstra was caught 12 that year.

[J. Weitzel]

I expected a little more from Myers in the closer role, although I wouldn't go so far as to say he's underachieving. He could easily be on the list.

[Malcolm]

I think it comes down to the playoffs. If the Phils make it to the playoffs - division or not, it's Rollins.

If they don't make it, and the Rockies make it, it's Holliday.

If neither doesn't make it, and the Brewers make it, it's Fielder.

If none of those teams make it, it's Wright.

[CJ]

Carlos Delgado is back in the lineup tonight. Lastings Milledge was suspended three games, but he is appealing.

[Sophist]

Is that a "should" or "will" argument, Malcolm?

[CJ]

Malcolm: A pretty fair analysis.

[Malcolm]

Since I can't predict the future, and how a bunch of idiot sportswriters vote, I'm going with "should."

Note: I room with a sportswriter, so my degrading comments are all in fun.

[elliott]

as good as j-roll is this year, he's no lenny in 93. obp gives lenny the edge in my mind. and how can we forget the playoffs. hopefully, j-roll will have a chance to match that.

[Andy]

@Sophist: there's the question. The Most Valuable Player is always different than the most valuable player. For any team there are players who have been most valuable, even indispensible, to their efforts. Rollins is irreplaceable.

As far as the "Most Valuable Player" is is a popularity contest among the chosen voters. So: we all *know* that J-Roll is the most valuable player. And he *should* be the MVP. But I believe that Malcolm's assessment pretty much captures the *will* of those who vote.

[Malcolm]

Actually Andy, you're right, it is a "will."

Which is a shame. Rollins gets it no matter what.

Although, I find it interesting that sportswriters, analysts, talking heads and all always point the main detractor being that the MVP should decide who is most valuable to their team.

Has anyone thought that when the award was created in 1929, that the word "valuable" meant something else, if anything at all?

For one, they could've just placed the word in there without any consideration of its meaning. Or they could've meant "most valuable in the league," as in, which player has the most value, period.

I think the writers may read into the award too much. A geniuine end-of-the-season award given to one player, where that award poses as its league's highest honor, should be given to the outright best player.

Thus, you can make a hard case for Rollins. Then again, it may really be Ramirez' award to win.

[Jack]

Is Jimmy the best player in the NL this year? No, I don't think so. I think the numbers tell me that Wright, Holliday, Hanley, Cabrera, and Pujols have all been more "productive" players this year.

Has Jimmy been the most important player? Yeah, I think so. He decided to become the team leader before the year, and when Chase went down, that was sorely tested. And he passed. He's done every single thing well for this team, coming through when it matters, and benig a clubhouse leader. I think, if we make the playoffs, he'll win this thing. MVP

[denny b.]

Too many right-handers in the Phil lineup tonight. Hill eats up righties.

And, no Coste again. Hope Ruiz's legs don't fall off.

[Sophist]

Gotta love that the Pirates were able to score 8 at Wrigley today, after scoring 9 runs in 4 games at Petco.

[CJ]

Dobbs, Werth, Ruiz are 6-7-8 tonight. I'm surprised Victorino doesn't get the start against the righty. Coste-Ruiz is a wash against Hill offensively, IMO, but this is a long stretch for Ruiz. I suspect we'll see Coste tomorrow and then Ruiz on Sunday.

[Mr. Mac]

- Boy, Hill would look nice pitching FOR the Phillies. With that sinkerball, CBP would be just right for him. Any chance Gillick might trade for someone like him this off-season?

- On the last thread, someone mentioned Urbina & Matteo would look good coming out of the Phillies bullpen. That would give the Phillies a machette weilding, gasoline drenching, match striking, human torching former closer, along with 2 wife beating, spousal abusing, anger management failing, extra pitching arms in the late innings. Quite the conglomerate. The last time we saw an assault team like that, they were landing on the beaches of Normandy.

[Sophist]

Shane should be in the lineup tonight. The Phils need speed.

[CJ]

denny b: The only lefty-righty switch in the lineup that was possible was Vic (the switch-hitter) for Werth, although Werth's OPS and average vs. righties is higher than Vic's. I suppose you could start LaForest (lefty) over Ruiz behind the plate, but I'm not sure we want that.

[CJ]

This Metsblog post has a link to the video of the Phils celebrating the Marlins win last night. It's good to see. Can't argue this team doesn't care...

[RSB]

Uggghhh, why Werth tonight? Huge HR last night, but off a lefty. Manuel appears to have turneed Victorino back into a bench player. I really don't think it's even about the calf anymore.

[denny b.]

"denny b: The only lefty-righty switch in the lineup that was possible was Vic (the switch-hitter) for Werth, although Werth's OPS and average vs. righties is higher than Vic's."

That's true. I would have thought seriously about giving Burrell the night off. If Cholly can continually start Nunez for defense at 3B, when Moyer starts; then why not think the same about OF defense with a fly-ball pitcher in Eaton pitching? Burrell hasn't hit a thing for a week (although he still is drawing some walks) and with Eaton in there, why not give him a night off and put some more speed in that spacious outfield? Plus, Burrell has done nothing against Hill this year (which means he will probably take him deep in the 1st tonight).

Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Howard
Rowand
Dobbs
Werth
Coste
Eaton

That would be my lineup tonight. Ruiz already started against Hill a few weeks ago, and did nothing with him. Coste is a good lowball hitter, with a sinkerball pitcher. Could be a good matchup.

I think Rowand and Utley should get to this guy tonight.

[CJ]

denny b.:

Frankly, no Phil gets to Shawn Hill in their career. Only Wes Helms is hitting above .250 in their career off Hill (2-for-3 all-time). If we tried to bench those that have had trouble with him... we'd have no one left to hit ;-)

[limoguy]

Direct TV subscriber alert: tonight's game is on channel 626, MASN.

[MG]

That picture of Eaton is priceless. The frosted hair explains a couple of things. Does this mean Eaton does everyone need to be really considered an ideal SoCal metrosexual (e.g., shaves this chest)?

[JD]

I know this is very Un-Philly, but let's think positive thoughts about Mr.Eaton tonight! I say 5-6 innings, 1 run allowed.

[CJ]

JD: I'm thinking positive, but I'm thinking 5-6 innings and 3-4 runs... he escapse the first, but gives up a run in the second.

[limoguy]

I went to the Mets blog and looked at the video. Pretty standard stuff. Some of the Mets fans there were wondering if the Mets have as much spirit. Several were also saying that they hate the Phillies. I don't think I ever saw a comment on here expressing such a sentiment toward another team. This is a good group.

[JD]

CJ, I would take 3-4 runs with the Phils offense. I think he will rise to the occasion tonight.

[kells]

Terrible lineup by Charlie. Coste & Victorino should both be in the mineup. They need Vic's speed.
Bridoc & Reed-I just moved back from Hoboken(lived on 14th & Washington)Liberty bar is a great spot. Check out Philly2Hoboken.com.
They meet up at Mulligans on Sundays.
I'll be up in Hoboken sometime next week-let me what nights your watching the Phills at Liberty.

[CJ]

Not the first inning at the plate I had hoped for...

[timr]

I agree--we could have used Vic's speed, and four at bats from Coste, tonight.

This is going to be a tough one.

[Tray]

Olsen has an 8-pitch 1-2-3 inning in Florida.

[Parker]

Tray, not that it matters but Doug Davis' stats agains the Phillies are staggering. 2 RBI's, I HR (Howard), .237 B.A., .293 OBP, .342 SLG, .635 OPS. (78 at bats).

And Brandon Webb is a super version of Hill, if that tells you anything about his success against the Phillies.

[Mike H.]

You freak, Eaton. You walked the leadoff batter. That's the kind of junk they teach you to NOT do in little league!

[Lake Fred]

Fox News reporting the SF Giants will not bring Bobby Bonds back next year. This is it for the juicer in SF.

[bathtubhippo]

im going to punch eaton in the mouth

[curt]

It's just absurd that Eaton is still pitching for us.

[Parker]

Should use Eaton like Larussa used Kip Wells, bring him in in the second or third inning.

[fljerry]

fl leading 1=0

[cb]

ugh

[Parker]

This is ridiculous.

[Mike H.]

Go get him, Cholly.

[Mark]

Here's the Eaton we know and love, 1 out in the first, bases loaded.

[Parker]

D-needs to come up big on a ground ball.

[bathtubhippo]

and to think we could have called up happ to pitch.

[Parker]

D-needs to come up big on a ground ball.

[cb]

come on, eaton. find your way out of this...

[Mark]

Here's the Eaton we know and love, 1 out in the first, bases loaded.

[king myno]

A terrible call and a bad base-running decision are the only reason this game isn't 2-0 already.

[timr]

No "Manager of the Year" would continue to let Eaton drag this team down.

[ZT]

Eaton in midseason form, I turn on the tv and its one out and bases loaded. Hes garbage.

[Sad Panda]

Can we option Eaton to the Mexican League?

[Parker]

Where does the ump want the ball right in the freaking middle for it to be a strike.

[cb]

this guy is unreal...

[bathtubhippo]

jesus christ.

[Sad Panda]

Jesus Eaton. You suck.

[Mike H.]

Nope, bathtubhippo... that's Adam Eaton.

[Crazy Jon]

Someone needs to order a code red for Eaton.

[king myno]

I have a buddy at RFK tonight, I think he's gonna have to pull a William Ligue Jr. on Eaton and save the season.

[Parker]

This has to be Eaton's last start. I am a patient person but this is disgusting.

[curt]

What a complete and utter tool. Take away the 8 million x 3 and this guy is gone long ago.

[bathtubhippo]

THROW A GODDAMN STRIKE

[Tray]

What a dope.

[Jon]

There is no room for this crap! Eaton needs to be banished to the pen and hopefully not throw another inning this season!

[cb]

he isn't there mentally. can't handle these situations...

[bathtubhippo]

phew, that was a pity strike. mercy.

[JD]

Man, he is rattled.

[cb]

it's a miracle to get out and only give up one... come on, bats!

[Parker]

Wow, that is sort of a victory there. Unbelievable.

[regalmeans]

that was crap... Nats have NO offense... that was all Eaton's lack of control... oh this is going to be a long night.

[GSL]

Well that could have been disaterous. This is going to be another tooth and nail game from all the evidence I can see

[Tray]

Remember though, his first inning's always his worst. He'll probably cruise through the next three, load the bases in the fifth, and give up a grand slam to Brian Schneider.

[JD]

Nice. He got out of that one without too much damage

[Ribbies]

That could have been much worse, but looks like this will have to be another come from behind win.

[Mike H.]

I really thought he was going to walk Fick, make it 2-0, then have Mr. Phillie Killer Brian Schneider hit a salami for the six-oh lead.

[Sad Panda]

Man... he is garbage. I can't believe we have to see this crap next year.

[GSL]

At least Fick didn't hurt us. I am not sure why, but I can't stand that guy

[Andy]

glad to see that the pitcher clout prefers to Durbin has his best command tonight.

[JD]

Florida 1-0 in the 2nd

[king myno]

At least Clay Condrey is rested.

[GSL]

bunt through the shift!

[Jon]

Phillies management needs to suck it up and cut this douchebag. There is no room for him on a contending team. No room!