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Monday, September 10, 2007

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Tray, those D-Backs just can't get it done. By the way, I have some interesting stats for you on the mighty offensive prowess of that team of "Dads," that you seem to think has such a great offense. I'll throw in the Dodgers for free.

Padres: Hits 1213, 2B 277 , 3B 28, HR 142, Total Bases 1972, RBI 602, Batting Average .249, OPS .725

D-Backs: Hits 1189, 2B 253, 3B 36, HR 154, Total Bases 1976, RBI 603, Batting Average .248, OPS .728

Dodgers: Hits 1350, 2B 249, 3B 29, HR 107, Total Bases 1978, RBI 622, Batting Average .273, OPS .735

Ok, Tray, I would just like for you to tell me what exactly it is that San Diego does offensively that is so much better than the D-Backs. Since the D-Backs are "The worst hitting team in the league," I figured there would be a stark contrast in the Padres and D-Backs stats throughout the season. If anything you could make the argument that the D-Backs are the stronger team. THey hit for more power, run better, slug better, and have a higher OPS. The Dodgers look even worse. I'll go through the Pitching statitstics later, but clearly the Padres are no offensive juggernaut. Nothing compared to the Phillies. By god, you want to talk about juggernaut, look at the Phillies statistics compared to these teams. It is, well, unbelievable.

Come on man, you're not going to say that the D-Backs are better offensively than the Padres when their OPS is 0.003 better.
If anything, you have successfully made the case that they are offensive equals.

CJ, kind of but not really my point. My point is that San Diego's offense is no better, if not worse than the D-Backs. Any suggestion to the contrary, would belie the stats. And as master of ceremonies, I mean statistics, clout can attest that no one needs to do that.

parker:
Padres play their home games in a very pitcher friednly park.

Snakes play their games in a very hitters friendly park.

Compare their away statistics and you begin to see the real trend.

I didn't realize the BOB was regarded as a very hitters friendly park.
You don't really hear it mentioned in the same breath as Coors, Wrigley, the Great American Ball Park or the Money Pit.

CJ - using babseball reference park index here. They have Chase being more hitter friendly than the Zen.

Can't argue with that - you just never hear it mentioned as a bandbox.
Just goes to show you how bad the D-Backs offense really is if they can't score in a hitter's friendly park.

Well, simply, the Padres have scored 634 runs in 142 games. The Snakes have scored 628 in 144. So if you do the math, 4.36 runs per for Arizona, 4.47 for San Diego. It doesn't sound like much of a difference, but San Diego's had a slight upper edge there all year. More importantly though, there are park factors. San Diego plays in a tough park. On the road, San Diego's scored 349, as opposed to 285 at home. Those 349 runs come out to 4.92 runs per game. Now if you multiplied that out over the whole season, San Diego would have scored 698 runs this season, which would put them 12th in baseball and 5th in the NL. Now, by comparison, Arizona has scored 277 on the road and 351 at home. Clearly they benefit from their park. On the road, they score just 4.01 runs per game. If you multiply that over 143 games, which everyone has played so far, give or take a game, you get 574 runs. The only team with fewer in baseball is the Nationals.

On the bright side, both teams ERAs have risen in the second half - the Padres moreso. Who knows, maybe it's a closer race than a normal pessimistic (read realistic) Phillies thought process might predict.

Time to Break Rocks, guys!

20 games left. I think they need to go 14-6 to get in. What do you guys think?

Everyone is mentioning San Diego but we also have to watch out for Colorado who is one game behind us. If they win 3 of 4 from us they will then take over our spot and they will be very much in the drivers seat with all the Western teams playing each other. We got to knock them out now!!!!!

fljerry: if they win 3 of 4 from us, it's time to go watch football.
We cannot lose a series. At all. It is incumbent to win all the series. It would be good to sweep one of them.

We cannot count on anybody to fold. In a sense, this might be the most important, cause 3-1 or 4-0 might put the Rocks away.

Of course, if we go 1-3 or 0-4 just keep thinking: "better draft picks; better draft picks." (Right, I forgot, the Patty and Rube show.)

I like this line-up. Uts back to 2nd, Dobbs playing third. Vic batting 6th.

Tonight, the question: can our guys hit 99 mph fastballs?

parker: You didn't read my post from yesterday. You have to adjust for ballpark. The D'backs offense is indeed even worse than it appears and their pitching is much better. In fact, I think their pitching on the whole is better than the Padres.

I don't know if this has ever been brought up. We talk about Iguchi trying to play third and for the Phils to sign him next year. Why not try Utley at third - is there a reason he can't or won't? If he could and is decent we will have a great infield with Iguchi at second.

jeff: I'll repeat what I said on the prior thread: At least a couple of these teams will get hot. Last year, the Padres won 14 of their last 20 and the Dodgers won 9 of their last 10. If the Phillies just play a few games above .500 they won't make it. A couple of these teams are going to play .700 ball.

Andy: It's not the speed that counts, it's location and movement. Ask Eaton and Durbin.

flj, interesting suggestion and I await responses from those more knowledgeable. His first year in the minors, at Scranton, he played a rather creditable third base.

It's much easier to find a decent offensive third baseman than it is to find one who plays second base. Though you wouldn't know it from watching the Phils the last few seasons. That's why you dont really think about moving Utley.

The argument of "the Phillies have to beat out more teams for the wild card so it is less likely" is flawed for a few reasons. One is that the same could be said at the beginning of the season when everyone is 0-0. You need to play better than a lot of teams to get to the playoffs. That's the point. Also, with the games back vs games left disparity when compared to the NL East race, it is much more likely we get the wild card. There is a reason those Baseball Prospectus percentages have favored the wild card over the East for us for all but a few short periods over the last couple months. Finally, any situation where we get hot enough to make up 2-3 games on a pitching rich team like the Padres is assuming we get real hot, and therefore are likely to be the hottest of the 4 or so teams going for the WC.
All that said, I have very little hope of the Phillies making a run. When you have a starting rotation and bullpen who are equally adept at blowing 5 run leads, it's really hard to win games against good teams (who we play for the next 7 days).

But still, I'll be rooting like hell while expecting the classic fall short...

Emerson
Where are these decent (offensive) third baseman you are mentioning that Phils can pick up?

Emerson. Well said. And not to mention that Utley is now possibly the best defensive 2B in the league. It'd be moronic to mess with that type of defense up the middle.

So Brian you think Utley is going to get the gold glove award for second baseman?

Brian G. When the Phillies were 3 back of the Mets and also 3 back in the WC, what did you think the chances were then?

If he had stayed healthy it was possible, but the gold glove is meaningless anyway. His defensive stats have improved steadily from his first year, and this year he ranked at the top in the NL when they came out.

Clout actually after phils swept Mets they were 2 games behind and also 2 games out of wildcard

This is really quite simple: Utley will be the Phillies secondbaseman for years to come. Iguchi will be an everyday secondbaseman for another team next year. But feel free to fantasize.

This wouldn't be the first time a player who is an excellent fielder is being moved for another - check AROD for the Yanks

fljerry: Thanks for the correction.

Considering the Mets weak schedule, probably right around even, but I agree that it was easier to catch one team at that point(I was referring to right after the sweep when I said al but a short period). However, when we were say 4 or 5 back of the Mets and 2 back of the WC, the percentages favored wild card.

Clout Its an idea to fill the third base problem - Never said it would be done just wondering if it was ever mentioned prior

Brian G: I agree

fljerry: I'm not saying i have all the answers, i'm just saying that in most years, there are more 3B options with big bats than there are at second. Sure, we could replace Utley with Uggla, Roberts, Cano, or Brandon Phillips, but something tells me they wont be available. On the other hand, Garret Atkins might be on the market, Mike Lowell is a free agent, and one would think that a minor league third baseman might have more pop in his bat that a minor league second baseman.

Actually, given Dobbs minor league stats, I'd be willing to leave him there and spend all possible time and energy on pitching, pitching and, um, pitching.

emerson:
my gues on the market is that - nice start Kyle - Atkins moves to 1st with the rockies, and the Yanks and Red Sox, essentially, through the FA market swap 3Bs.

Andy: Interesting thought re: Sox-Yanks. I'll keep my fingers crossed that we can somehow land Lowell at a reasonable rate (8-9 mil per year/3 years???)

I had to walk away and came back and saw - behold - not such a good start, Kyle.

gotta finish those guys off with 2 strikes!!

I heard fljerry saying that, even though, usually, it's easier to get offense at 3B, so having offense at 2B is a gift, we might not find it right now - meanwhile we have a 2B who seems to be good at O and D.

My personal preference is keep Dobbs at 3B. He's hit .300+ at every level he's stayed at, and showed some decent tendencies this year. too.

Count me among those uninterested in Mike Lowell. He certainly would be an upgrade, but at his age and with his injury history, anything over a 2 years at 8 mil ain't worth the risk, and there's no way he'll be that cheap.

So anyone have any guesses on how quickly Atlanta folds tonight against the Mutties?

I like Dobbs too, but only against rightys - he looks horrible against leftys - I don't want Nunez next year to platoon with him

Brian G: and it'll probably take 4 years @ $10 mil a pop.

Michael Bourn activated for tonight

so if bourn has just been activated, that means he would be available for tonight's game, no??

So, anyone out there watching this guy's speed. He's tossed his fatsball at 98 - 99 mostly so far.

PtB. Good job.

I had heard Bourn was still a ways away. His activation could be relatively meaningless and only for absolute desperation. He's on the 40 man anyway so it didn't take anything.

That's not my style said Casey...

jesus this guy is really friggin nasty

So this is what Rosario would look like if he could actually pitch...speaking of whom, is the guy still travelling with the team?

Can Rosario throw it 100+?

OK, watching this on the Internet at work. How does one "single to deep center"?

Actually, it's always interesting to me when someone who throws the ball this fast - and Ubaldo BRANGS it - has an ERA over 4.00. Someone must be hitting him. I have a feeling it will us, tonight, maybe the second time around.

it was a line drive over shortstops head (closer to second base bag)

@attywood
PtB.

attytood (i assume youre referring to burrell's hit):
pat hit a bullet in the gap and it was cut off well by the CF so he had to retreat back to first...

On the digital cable MLB extra innings we have the Comcast (Phillies) feed. This was also the case with Wednesday's meltdown in Atlanta.

Does anyone know if this is going to continue to happen. The Extra Innings schedule says it should be Fox-Rocky Mountain

andy-
i have a feeling he's one of the young guys who will get riled easily. maybe walk a couple guys then start throwin meatballs... i dunno - i've seen him pitch before a couple times and he just seems like that type of pitcher

diggity -
yeah, but wouldn't it be fun to have him and Jamie Moyer in the same rotation. You could work it either way and it would be amazing to watch.

Rockies will resign Helton and Atkins will be available.

sarge stop slobbering over jimenez's hands and feet.. weird...

diggity, please inform us poor out-of-towners about Sarge's fetishes...

Jimenez might just be the best young arm the Phils have faced this year. His stuff is really impressive. Just wonder if his intangibles (composure, guile, etc.) are as good.

It would be really nice to see that kind of arm right now in the Phils' minor league system but it just isn't there right now. Some interesting prospects but no guy on the near horizon who is going to be a Hamels-like impact pitcher.

jr - {no disagreement or judgement here} you got a source or is that an opinion?

Helton is already signed for another like 4 or 5 years at a big rate, so not sure how they're gonna REsign him.

I brought up the Utley to third idea while he was on the DL and while Gooch was red hot.
My understanding is that Utley played marginal 3rd base while in the minors.
Utley will remain at 2nd, and Gooch will be playing for the Giants next year = Yomiuri Giants, that is.

When you say available - does that mean free agent or will be traded? If traded who is on the Phils that can be traded or who in minor leagues? Only chance next year is free agency

MG - bear in mind the phils faced Lincecum earlier in the year...
and jimenez walked a ton of guys in his time in the minors, so we'll see if his intangibles and composure can match his scintillating stuff.
and why can't all of our pitchers bunt like Lohse??

One, clout, we don't know that either the Dodgers or Padres will get hot. Last year they both did. This year they could both have sub-.500 months. We just don't know. I'd say 13-14 wins would get you in. Of course, it's not likely that we'll rack up that many wins - but it is also conceivable that both the Dodgers and Padres could falter down the stretch. Unlikely, but conceivable. When you add up all the ways we could get the wild card, you probably get something like a 20% chance. Also, apparently the Padres have lost Bradley, their best hitter, so that doesn't help their cause.

MG - I have watched Lincecum this year in person and on TV out here in SF. His stuff is really good but his fastball is just quite as electric as Jimenez.

Lincecum definitely has better control though and teams always drool over power-throwing LHP even if they have no control.

That didn't look like Lopes at First base coach - anyone know why hes not there?

Tray, what happened to Bradley? He's hurt?

Shouldn't have pitched to Utley there. You take no chances when you're in Colorado's position.

Anyone wanna comment on this GRD? What happened with the fan? What happened with the delay? Anyone? Geez...

A fan tried to catch a deep fly ball that would otherwise have hit the wall. Ruled ground rule double. CO manager seemed to be arguing that 3 runs should have scored.

Huge break for the Phills-looked like a homer to me.

How many times is something like this going to happen before they finally make the railings high enough to prevent interference? Just ridiculous. Call the Vet what you will, but at least it was a fair park.

What are they going to do with
Helton's big bucks? They have a 3B in the minors ready to take over.He's already played some this year.Don't know what their $$ situation is.Last I read they said it would be easier to move Atkins then Helton. Just what I read in the Colorado paper.

Steal 2nd first pitch, dude.

Bradley straned his right oblique muscle. He's listed as day-to-day.

Not that it will matter much if they can't get to this guy Jiminez.

Slip sliding away. Considering our pathetic pitching staff, it will be a remarkable achievement to finish this year over .500.

trouble brewing and Mesa up. That makes me feel better.

Stop the bleeding here and get your heads in the game! Wake up, O!

I don't know if anyone noticed, but this one seems to be slip-sliding away. Why can't out pitchers make it past the 5th or 6th inning -- not a good attribute for a team that also has no bullpen.

Ian Stewart has good credentials but has not shown enough pop at a MLB level to trade Atkins. He needs to be hitting more than .214 before Atkins is available.

Atkins would fit our line up perfectly.

Huge second out.

LOL -- I guess Curt noticed.

Man, the difference between 1 1/2 back or 2 1/2 back is huge.

atKKKKIns

Philzzzzz

attywood will - Simple. This rotation has:

1. Two guys who can't throw strikes with any kind of consistency (Durbin and Eaton). Results in high pitch counts and general ineffectiveness.

2. A veteran pitcher (Moyer) who has pitched way too many innings/pitches for a guy his age and is pretty worn done at this point.

3. Another veteran pitcher (Lohse) who has pitched alright but really is a "Lidle-special" type pitcher who runs into trouble after the 6th inning.

Basically, they have one guy in their rotation right now (Kendrick) who is really a legit option to go 7 innings when he is out there.

Watching a little of the Sox game tonight and Schilling has looked good. The sad part is that he would be the best pitcher on this staff right now.

I would love to see the Phils give him a 1-year deal this offseason for $10 million base salary loaded with a ton of incentives but that is a pipe dream.

That looks like a very wide strike zone.

there ya go MVP!!!

Rynocerous!!!!

OOrah. Take that Fast Boy.

Ryan Howard hits Hrs on balls that no one else can. Low and away and he smokes it to CF.

say what you will about pulpo, but alfonseca is the most excitable 55 year old i have ever seen, and i LOVE that he's on this team haha

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