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Thursday, September 27, 2007

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Win tonight, and if either the Mets or Padres lose, driver's seat to October.

I know Werth hasn't been on hitting well either the past week but starting Burrell tonight against a guy who owns him is just foolish.

I would go with Werth in LF and take the slight upgrade in defense. Hopefully, Burrell proves me wrong.

Burrell's career numbers against Smoltz are no good, but Werth has been awful lately. I suppose it good have gone either way. Although, Burrell hasn't been *great* lately either.

One other argument for starting Burrell as opposed to Werth is that Cholly might rather have Werth as a defensive replacement of Burrell than have Burrell as PH off the bench.

Food for thought:

Werth's career numbers vs. Smoltz

3 AB, 2 H (2005 so this is kind of meaningless)

Burrell's career numbers vs. Smoltz

25 AB, 2 H, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 13 K

Smoltz owns Burrell and it is just ridiculous Cholly is starting him tonight.

By the way, if I see a LaForest PH appearance against Smoltz tonight just because of the insane lefty-righty matchup, I might just vomit myself.

What's really nervewracking about tonight is the possibility that the season could be over. If we're 2 back with 3 to play in both races, it's over. I think the Padres lose tonight, and I'm hopeful, but scared, that we can win tonight, so I'm not tooooo worried that it'll happen. But it's entirely possible, which is what sucks.

Smart lineup. Werth will get in the game somehow. Pinch hit, D replacement or if Vic pulls up lame during one of his sprints. Nice to have him on the bench. Feeling good PHils....lets go!

Total agreement with Jason - Phils win tonight, they are in great shape, I think even if NYM and SD win. Lose, then not so much.

I have an eerie calm feeling that Kendrick is going to be great tonight.

MG - Me too, somewhat surprised. Burrell could use a break a little more than Werth. Or we might see a fifth inning switch for "defense/speed."

My damn sales meeting is over. I am here to do two things: See a win and break the posts record.

Smoltz has made it through at least 6 IP in his last 15 starts dating back to July 2nd, making it through the 7th in 8 of those 15. In just one of those starts did he allow more than 3 ER, allowing 0, 1, or 2 ER in 9 of the 15.

He's only 5-2 in those 15 starts, though, and and walked 26 batters in that time. He only really faced 2 great offensive teams from what I can see at a cursory glance: Colorado and MIL. Colorado was the one team that scored on him: 7 R, 5 ER. MIL was his last outing. He walked 3 but allowed only 2 ER through 8 IP. Those Brewers games, of course, were huge games for the Braves.

Speaking of match-ups. Werth v a lefty is always favourable. Last 2 lefties he's seen he's homered and is .368 this year against them in 86 AB's.

I'm with Billy Mac from the last thread... the Mets are tanking.

Since being 62-47, the Mets are 25-24 over their last 49 games. That's almost one third of the season. They're 5-10 in their last 15 games.

In their last 7 vs. the Fish, the Mets are 4-3, with two of those losses coming in New York.

It's certainly not a sure thing that they'll handle the Fish this weekend.

MG: I also supported the Werth for Burrell switch, but I can't say it's "stupid" to play Burrell. Werth hasn't been good against righties and Burrell probably gives us a better chance to take advantage of a mistake hit.

The key is that Manuel was smart enough to move Burrell down to 6th, thus cutting down on his at bats.

I can't complain too much about this lineup, but I wouldn't have minded a Werth start, either.

Do I detect a quite confidence on here tonight? Good call Ben Keeler.....an eerie calm. Phils can do this. Smoltz is good but so is our young Kendrick, big test for him tonight.

Go you Phightin's!!!

Good news: Pujols is in the lineup vs. the Mets. Edmonds is out, but he hasn't been in the lineup for awhile and is only available as a pinch hitter. Certainly not a AAA lineup from what I can tell (at least not any more AAA than the Cards have fielded all season).

GO PHILS!

i am never confident. i fit entirely into cj's analysis of a phillies fan who convinces himself the worst will happen so the disappointment isn't as bad when the team loses.

didn't say i was proud of it, but it's true.

go phils.

Why are we in the driver's seat if we win and SD loses? Colorado could win their next 20 games for all we know.

My spidey sense is telling me that this will be an epic game with the Phils coming out on top. Let's go Phillies!

burrell and werth are struggling, but at this point sitting burrell would fall into the over managing category. you need his power threat in the lineup. having his 29 homers there keeps a little more pressure on the braves.

Go Phils!!

Granted it is a small sample size, but Burrell has struck out in over half of his ABs vs. Smotlz and doesn't walk against him. This tells you that the opposing pitcher just knows how to handle this guy.

Elliott: You and I both. But, even for those Phillie fans who fall into the optimist camp (in other words, people who haven't been Phillie fans for very long),
it would be difficult to be confident when you're facing one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.

Hopeful, yes. Confident, no.

mike nutter: Point taken, and I completely accept that. I just figured a night off wouldn't be terrible for Burrell the way he's cooled off and it would get a little more speed in the OF and on the base paths.

Ed Rapuano is tonight's home plate umpire.

If this ump is setting himself up to squeeze pitchers, he sure as hell better treat the vet the way he's treating the rookie.

I feel good when Kendrick is on the mound.

God I love seeing a 1-2-3 first inning for our pitchers.

9 pitch inning. Verrrry nice.

Nice inning!

Werth vs. Burrell is kind of meaningless though in comparsion to what Rollins and Victorino. Especially since Rollins has hit very well against Smoltz in his career.

Wouldn't it be swell if they could pounce on Smoltz for a few runs right out of the gate?

Is Kendrick the best Phils' starying pitcher right now? I have to say yes.

Swell indeed.

MVP!!

mike nutter - the phrase "over managing" perfectly sums up what sitting Burrell would be tonight. PTB has been one of the main guys who brought us here . . . this time of the season you dance with the one that brought you.

WOO-HOO~!

YES BABY!!! Score early, score often!

Unreal !!!

Rollins playing these last 3 games like he's the MVP. Time to steal second. Against this kind of pitcher, they're going to need to manufacture some runs.

Victorino!!!

Speed kills.

Wow!

You just keep talking, BAP. I always like what you have to say.

Don't let these bastards breathe.

I really don't think I've been this excited for a game since 1993. The Phils are letting me know it's okay to be excited this time.

Excellent!

I'm so glad Vic is back in the lineup

Good management decision right there.

Play Victorino.

Speed 1 - Braves none

Starting Vic proves prescient already.

Even Cholly's harshest critic would have to concede he's made mostly all the right calls lately. I know this for a fact because I, myself, am Cholly's harshest critic.

Get that run on the scoreboard so the Mets can see it up in Queens. 1-0 Phillies.

The Braves are rattled!!

Awesome

It's like they're playing the Mets all over again!

Good thing our chief NL East rivals (Mets, Braves) are experiencing poor fielding lately.

whoooaaaa they put the score up at shea and castillo boots a ball. its on!!!!

The Speed lineup!!! It's been a little while.

There's your big-time trade deadline acquisition, Mark Texieira.

Put that 2 up in Queens!

i almost forgot how valuable victorino is

Man this sort of luck doesn't happen to the Phillies. 120 years of proof. Excellent start.

WOO-HOO~!~!~!~!

Nice play Gold Glover.

BOW BEFORE WHIFF-THRA!

Is everything going right?!

OH BOY!!!

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

What was everyone saying about Smoltz again?

atta boy ryno

Anyone having luck w/sopcast??

YESSSSSSSSSSSS!

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

haha!!!!

hell yes

i love this team

That ball got out of there so goddamn fast.

I'm almost in shock. This is awesome!!!

What exactly happened on the Vic bunt?
Help a brother stuck in middle PA without Comcast

this year is different!

BAP, are you feeling this? They ain't tight this time.

Poor Smoltz, that ball would've been a pop up in every other park. Damn that jet stream.

This team smells blood in the water and is on the attack. What a different attitude from Septembers past.

Way to put pressure on the Mutts.

and a loud grown as the 4 spot goes up on the board at shea!

Best part of this early lead and is that Kendrick can pitch his game not be afraid to challenge hitters with strikes. Kendrick has looked great this year when he has pitched with a lead.

Unreal.

Sorry for the delayed response posts. You guys are ahead of me. I'm on Gameday.

Howard!!! Genious.

Rowand???

Planning on getting an out tonight, SCHMOLTZ?

Think the Phils want to win this game?

One-nothing, St. Louis.

Ops -- Perfect bunt 3rd base side and Smoltz had to rush the throw...and threw it away -- waaaaay away.

1-0 cards, i'm so excited i can't spell!

Two errors already on the Mets. Both by Castillo.

Vic laid down a perfect bunt down the third base line. Smoltz ran for it, no chance to get the out, and he threw it away.

Then with Vic on third, Utley grounded to first, Texeiria was up close and it went through his legs, Utley scores.

PUt that 4 up in queens.

Thats right FOUR! With NO outs.

I'm stunned. You wouldn't have got it at 1000 to 1 of the bookies.

Bat around boys. Lets pound him into the turf.

This is great stuff. And Pedro's having some trouble in the first. Hope this makes the Mets press even more tonight.

Shoddy defense and the Cards up 1-0.

Pedro gets out of the jam 1-0 Birds

23 pitch first inning for Pedro... we're a quarter of the way to that awful Mets bullpen.

MG: What are Werth's career stats vs. RHP? You're usually sharper than that.

Sheets scratched from his start. And RSB, I thought b_a_p's theory was that we lose once we're in the lead or tied for the lead.

Even though he struck out. It was a good AB considering the 4 runs. Getting the pitch count up. Keep working him Phils.

Looks like Smoltz is starting to find his pitches a bit. Glad the Phils jumped out 4-0.

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