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Friday, September 14, 2007


Welcome back, Jason!

You know, you might want to offer up the bobblehead to the Phillies for bullpen action – it can't be any worse than what we've got.

Amazingly, we're only 1.5 back for the WC. Hope springs eternal.

Following up from the last thread, there are a lot of teams in the WC race, which is I say our chance is slim. But the Mets are better than any of them and will win at least 90 games, which is why I say our chance in the division is nonexistent.

Hilarious post Jason. Welcome back to the States. Let's hope your return coincides with the Phils waking back up and realizing they actually have a chance (granted our pessimistic natures will clearly disregard this fact). They were 4-4 while you were gone...let's pray they were just waiting on your return before kicking this thing into high gear.

Every time the bullpen starts to warm up, I start screaming. In fact, my wife says I'm starting to sound start like the late great Sam Kinnison. In honor of her fine and astute observation, I here list some applicable Kinnison quotes:

"Oh Noooooo! God, will you stop playing Nintendo up there for a minute and look at the mess you've gotten me into? What have you done to me? NOOOOOO!" - as Ted Bundy's gaurdian angel in "It's a Bundyful Life" Christmas episode of "Married ... with Children"

"Wild Thing! You make my heart scream! The only thing that can get you off is to see me in pain but I think I love you! ... You made me trust you then put a knife in my heart!" - Sam's version of the Troggs' "Wild Thing"

"I fall for it every time. Love comes to me and says 'This is Love. C'mon, this is LOVE. I wouldn't lie to you 8 times in a row. C'mon, let's see' .... Oh no! AAHHHHHH!" - Sam's first appearance on Letterman

Welcome home! Did you bring any relievers back with you?

BP breaks down the wild card chances this way, percentage-wise:

Padres - 37.35%
Phillies - 18.21%
Dodgers - 16.92%
D'Backs - 15.15%
Rockies - 9.56%
Braves - 1.87%

With the western teams beating up on each other, I think we still have a shot. Cole's coming back (we think), I think there's reason for tempered optimism right now.

You know, looking at the pitching matchups, I think this is the series that could put us out of the race for good. The Mets have the distinct advantage in all three. I think we'll take a game, but we could get swept.

The Padres definitely have all the advantages over the next 10 days, despite a 4-7 start this month (they have yet to win on consecutive days) - 1.5 game lead and they start a 10-game homestead today: 3 games against the Giants, 4 against Pittsburgh, 3 against Colorado.

The Phils are 1.5 down and go on the road for 10 days: Mets, Cards, 4 at RFK.

However, then the Phils have a day off and 6 at home to finish the year, while the Pads get no day of and play 7 straight road games - the last 4 against the Brewers, who are right in there own race. . . . Staying within 2 of the leader (whether that the Pads or LA) over the next 10 would be a good goal.

Hate to overlook this Mets series but the real issue is the health and ability of Kendrick and Hamels to start the first two games of the Cards series respectively. Without these guys, the Phils have zero chance to make the playoffs since they will be left with a single effective starters (Lohse).

So Tray, you think the season will be over for the 12th time on Sunday? I doubt it. Even if the Phils take just one, they'd likely only lose 1 game max to whoever is leading the WC race. The Padres aren't playing well enough to finish off the Phils, Dodgers, or Rockies.

Weitzel - Welcome back and hopefully you got to take advantage of some non-baseball treats in Japan too. Sake and sushi immediately come to mind.

ajc1- you meant Al Bundy not Ted Bundy, Ted's the serial killer, Al's the shoe salesman.

I would say every team's chances for the wild card are slim at this point none of them are playing all that well for me to say one will definitely win over the other, as it is every year the team who hottest at the end of the season will win, we just need the phils to catch fire now and for the next 2 weeks.

sounds like a great trip.....but going out of the country anywhere and missing seeing Eaton and Durbin start would be well worth it.

"Weitzel has designated his old underwear for assignment."

It's official, ESPN is reporting that the Phils just picked up Jason's underwear off waivers to set-up for Myers, they'll be a Shea before the first pitch tomorrow.

michael - thanks for the correction.

I'm going tonight and Sunday to the games, I got the tickets months ago.

I guess missing Durbin is nice, but I never imagined I'd be pulling Moyer/Eaton.

The saddest part is the Eaton game tix are a gift. The're like third row field box seats on the third base line, I've never had such great seats for a ML pro-sports game in my life, and I'll likely be leaving by the top of the 4th.

I'm amused at the fact that in nearly every single season this year, the Phils have faced unfavorable pitching matchups leading to proclamations from people like Tray that we'll likely get swept and could win one game at most.

Kinda like that Padres series earlier this year...

Young vs. Hamels (L)
Germano vs. Eaton (W)
Wells vs. Moyer (W)
Peavy vs. Durbin (W)

Or that Mets series...

Lawrence vs. Durbin (W)
Glavine vs. Eaton (W)
Perez vs. Moyer (W)
El Duque vs. Lohse (W)

How many of those were we "supposed" to win? I'd say we may have had an advantage in 2 or 3 at most... but we won 7 of 8.

Analyzing pitching matchups like this is pointless. There are a million factors that go into winning a game. We're generally at a disadvantage when it comes to the mound. But we've won more games than we've lost, so I tend to take those "matchups" with a grain of salt.

The Mets have won even more, CJ. If we lost two it wouldn't knock us out of contention, but there's a definite potential for a sweep here. In which case I think we would get knocked out. Not that I'm predicting a sweep, but it's a real possibility. You'll definitely see some extra effort from the Mets this time around, anyway.

yt: that underwear line was effing brilliant.

The sad part JZ, is that I'd rather have the undies coming into a close game then Jose Mesa.

According to the Phillies website... Alfonseca... suspended for four games...

he's appealing the ruling ... so he's still available tonight. Joy. He's allowed almost 1 run per inning since July 1 (14 runs in 15.2 innings).


Of course a sweep is a possibility. With this pitching staff, a sweep is always a possibility.

But I could go back 20 straight series in which someone on this list said, "These pitching matchups are horrible, we'll be lucky to win one game."

ajc1: It's worse than that with Aflonseca. He's pitching only 9.2 innings in his last 18 games and allowed 12 ER while also allowing 2 inherited runners to score.

CJ - I'd say our best options out of the 'pen to hold down a lead right now are Romero, Geary, Condrey and Rosario. I'm not saying they're good options, but that's all there is, really. God help us.

Lets say things don't go well for Hamels in his bullpen session.

Then what do the Phils do. You can't start "Real Deal" again. Unless you just want to come out and tell your fans you don't care, he can't start again.

His last 3 starts:

5 1/3 IP
15 hits
12 ER
8 walks

Embarrassing. He did a serviceable job earlier in the year. But, no more. Continuing to throw Eaton out there (when he hasn't had a quality start since June; and has the worst starting ERA for a full-time starter in the NL) is bad enough. But, no more Durbin. Put him in the pen, with all the other castoffs and guys who can't get the ball over and let him pitch in that spot. But, no more starts.

If Hamels can't go, then who pitches in St. Louis on Tuesday (and that is assuming Kendrick can go on Monday)? At this point, even though they wouldn't be elgible for the post-season, why not bring up someone (either for Kendrick or Durbin/Hamels)? What would it hurt? 1 game could be the difference. Maybe you bring up someone currently not on the roster, and they help you win a game you wouldn't win. Maybe that ends up the difference between sitting at home (again) and playing in a 1 game playoff or making the playoffs.

Of course, that would take some ingenuity from the front office, wouldn't it?

Tray, the Phils sweeping the Mets is also "within the realm of possibility".

The "probabilities" don't favor the Phils, and as CJ so ably pointed out, with this pitching staff they almost never favor us.

But, if the bats go crazy, anything can happen.

BTW, I've refrained from commenting on Alfonseca's hitting Helton last night, but in retrospect, it's the first time all year a Phillies pitcher has blatantly thrown at an opposing batter in obvious retaliation.

I'd wager that it is a fact that will not go unnoticed by the reat of the league.

If so, it can only help the Phils' hitters.

AWH: Exactly.

In fact, every time someone suggests we're at a pitching disadvantage for a series, I'm going to post this:

"Boy, we sure do have the hitting edge in every game this series. We'll probably sweep, but we'll at least win 2 of 3."

It's as reasonable an analysis as predicting wins based solely on the starting pitcher.

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EST. 2005

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