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Wednesday, August 08, 2007

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I don't have a problem wiht holding Utley out the full 5 weeks and being smart about it. With Iguchi filling in admirably it's best to let him heal properly so they don't have to do some clean up surgery, or anything after the season

This offense has shown over the past couple weeks that it can hold it's own without Mr. Utley in the lineup. They're not always firing on all cylinders, but other players have picked up the slack. If this team doesn't make it into the playoffs again this season, the reason will be the same as if Utley had never been hurt: the bullpen's inconsistencies and NL-worst Adam Eaton rounding out an otherwise okay starting rotation.

The pitching situation, with the exception of Eaton's mental block, has been steadily improving since the All-Star break. I'm still cautiously optimistic that they'll get it all together down the stretch.

How much worse would Eaton have to pitch to be demoted (to the bullpen or worse)? Also, would anyone claim Eaton if put him through waivers? Hey, the braves need starters right...

Eaton will come around and pitch better down the stretch. Granted, "better" is a relative term and his recent body of work can't get much worse, but I feel confident that he'll pitch, at the very least, along the lines of an MLB #5 starter.

it looks like freddy garcia could be ready to go in a few weeks. what do you guys think they should do with him in terms of the rotation?

Per Garcia-

If he's healthy get him in the rotation. Career-wise he is 23-8 with a 3.17 ERA/ 1.17 WHIP in September and opponents hit .229 off him.

Also- this is a contract year so he is really going to be looking to go out and prove he is healthy for a month.

TTI: So what would constitute proof that he's healthy?

I have a really hard time believing that Garcia will come back ready to go, but anything we get from him at this point would be great. Depending on how Lohse goes, I wouldn't think twice about bumping him or Eaton to the bullpen.

Who cares? If he gives up less than four runs in his first inning, he's an improvement. And he breaks down after one inning, well, oh well.

The Truth Injection - What relevance do Garcia's past Sept. numbers have given the fact that he is severly injured? I would say almost 0%.

I am sure Garcia has a strong desire to pitch again in Sept. but you have to ask two basic questions about Garcia returing:

1. Does Garcia give the Phils a chance to win than any of their current starters? - I would say no right now but they may change. Eaton has really struggled but he is healthy and has demonstrated this season he is capable of pitching well at times (month of May).

2. If the Phils do fall out of the race in Sept, are the Phils better served by starting Garcia or someone internally like Happ? - Again, given that Garcia is a FA and there is almost no chance that he is back here next year, I would say the Phils would be better starting Happ or someone else for 3 or 4 starts to see what they give the Phils.

Encouraging news about Marson and quite frankly I am a little disappointed in Ruiz in his development this year.

Three home runs is pretty weak and he is not making anyone forget Lieberthal.

Actually Ruiz is almost beginning to remind me of him with lack of power & plate discipline, durability concerns, and little presence behind the plate, etc.

If we can get something worthwhile in a trade I say go for it now or in the off-season.

I could live with Coste full time with Barajas as a back-up for another year hopefully Jaramillo or Marson on deck in 2009.

The Phils need to figure out if Costanzo is the answer THIS winter, before they make any big moves at third. It would suck to have another Thome/Howard situation. (Not in any way claiming Costanzo is another Howard calibur player.)

MG- That is why I added the caveat if he is healthy.

1.- Why don't we wait to see how the rest of the month plays out. If Eaton, Lohse, or even Kendrick is struggling at that point then Garcia might be a better option. As a darkhorse candidate maybe moving Moyer to the pen to be a left-handed specialist in Spetember would work and it might shore up a need for the Phillies. (Not that I'm necessarily advocating moving Moyer out of the rotation.)

2.- Having Garcia pitch is of course ocntingent on them being in the race yet. If they are say 7-9 games out then they might be best going with Happ or someone like that and getting them experience. If they are 4 or less out then I think having Garcia go every 5 days- given his track record in the month- is a better option.

And again, this is all assuming that him returning means he is somewhere between 90-100% healthy.

i absolutely could not live with barajas as a back-up for another year.

I don't think any of those guys written about in the header except possibly Happ will be of much use this Sept.

I agree with Craig, I'd rather be bitching about Ruiz next year than suffering through another year of Barajas.

Lake Fred, I would agree 100%. I'm not counting on this farm system for much in the very near future. 5 years from now, maybe.

craig_one, dead on. Manuel can take barajas with him after this season.

The Truth Injection - Fair enough. I just don't see how a guy with an injury that requires surgical intervention and a lengthy recooperation is going to be anywhere near 90-100% healthy by early Sept.

Truth Injection: Moyer would be ineffective as a lefty specialist because lefties actually hit him better than righties this year.

And, frankly, Moyer hasn't been that bad recently. Last night was a very good start.

Costanzo has to better than Nunez.

I'm not willing to give up on Ruiz yet. It's his first year in the league. His defense is above average and his minor league numbers show he could be adequate at the plate. This team does not require a masher behind the plate. Let's get a guy we can count on behind the plate game in and game out to call a good game and play good defense. I don't think he'll be a liability with the bat as time goes on. Of course, I could be wrong.

Jaramillo will be on this team next year.

Bedrosian if Jaramillo is on the team next year does that mean Coste won't be?

I would like to see them re-up Barajas for around what they paid Eaton. It makes sense, Barajas is Eaton's "personal catcher." About 3 yrs / 24 mil for Barajas seems appropriate.

Seriously, interested to see Lohse tonight. I'd really like to see him pitch well.

Once again, the Jason Jaramillo lovefest makes its way onto Beerleaguer. I don't understand where it's coming from; he hasn't been a good hitter since 2005 in the Sally League. He's got a .703 OPS in Ottawa. Give me Barajas in a heartbeat over that.

Coste is getting up there in age and till hes finished we need him. This guy should be the number one catcher next year (and rest of this year) till he plays himself off. Anyone else should be the backup.

Ouch... Yovani Gallardo gave up 12 runs, 11 earned in 2.2 innings against the Rockies today. Wish we could have caught him on this day!

Jason: I agree... I'm not sure what Jaramillo gives you that Ruiz does not.

No, i assume that means Barajas is not.

There is no reason to believe that Garcia will be healthy if he comes back in Sept., and he shouldn't be given the chance to prove me right either.

I'd honestly rather see a back end rotation of Kendrick, Durbin, and Lohse the rest of the way, with Eaton waived (he is the worst pitcher in the league, after all) and Garcia sitting on the DL.

Bedrosian if Barajas is not on team next year and you want Jaramillo - it then comes to Ruiz or Coste.

i just checked on Coste's states. Last year he batted .328. Right now his BA is....328! Weird! He may actually be an alien from outer space!

First of Garcia will berehabbing in Minors prior to coming back, I'm sure he will have to do good to be a factor up here.

Here's another situation I have no interest in seeing come to fruition: Francisco Rosario's long-awaited return to the bullpen. How could he possibly help them? Give me healthy Geary and healthy Condrey instead.

I don't really want him, just seems destined to be on this team-homegrown/cheap. When in doubt, they'll cheap out.

THe way you determine Garcia's ealth: Hi Fastball velocity. If its high 89+, he's good to go.

If he's throwing Moyer-esque heaters, he's still hurt.

fljerry says: "Coste is getting up there in age". He's 34. Today's topic earlier was Barry Bonds. His best five years were when he was 35 through 40. The best is yet to come for Coste. He can hire Bonds' trainer to help him bulk up for the next five years!

I'm with you Jason about Francisco Rosario's long-awaited return to the bullpen. Yawn!

david wells is about to be let go. should the phils get on the phone?

Rob Neyer makes a couple of good points:

1) Byrnes got a full no trade clause to go with his 3 years, $30 million. Ouch. I REALLY don't think we'll be in the Rowand market.

2) The D-backs will now have to trade either Carlos Quentin or Carlos Gonzalez (big double A prospect). I doubt, however, we'll be in the trade market for a RF this off-season if we decided to go Burrell-Bourn-Victorino.

David Wells

No.

I'd rather go after Royce Clayton and see if he has any 3B left in him. Seriously, the guy who mans the Ben Franklin cemetary would be an upgrade from what we have there now.

You're not kidding about Rosario, Jason. Whenever I hear someone in Phillie-land talk about Rosario's prospective return, I cringe. I mean, they really have to be kidding if they think he's better than Condrey -- or anyone else in their bullpen.

Speaking of Condrey, am I the only guy on this board who thinks he's actually been one of the Phillies' better relivers this year? As Clout says, throw out the ERA because it means next to nothing for relief pitchers. Condrey has pitched 20 games this year &, in 15 of those apperances, he allowed 0 runs. Plus he's 4-0 & all of them were legitimate wins -- not the typical relief pitcher win where the guy gives up the tying run, only to have his team come back & win in the bottom of the inning. Basically, Condrey has had 3 disastrous games in 20 outings - one where he allowed 5 runs in 2 IP, one. Throw out those games & he has actually been quite stellar.

This isn't to say that I would rely on him to be a core part of the 2008 bullpen. It's merely to say that he really shouldn't be the guy who they keep shuttling back to Ottawa. He has probably been one of their top 3 or 4 relievers over the course of the season.

why does it seem that all hypothetical rowand contracts are the duration of 3 yrs? how bout 5 yrs, 40 mil. trade some long term flexibility for some cash. bourn will never be a good enough hitter in centerfield...trade him in the winter.

bap, You are reaching big time on Condrey.

No Helms ? Same lineup for Phils as last night against lefty Willis.

Phils
1. J Rollins, SS
2. T Iguchi, 2B
3. P Burrell, LF
4. R Howard, 1B
5. A Rowand, CF
6. J Werth, RF
7. C Ruiz, C
8. A Nunez, 3B
9. K Lohse, P

Fish
1. H Ramirez, SS
2. D Uggla, 2B
3. M Cabrera, 3B
4. M Jacobs, 1B
5. T Linden, LF
6. J Hermida, RF
7. M Treanor, C
8. A De Aza, CF
9. D Willis, P

Bay Area Phan is right on. Without Condrey the Phillies would not have a shot right now
at the playoffs.

Lefties are hitting a paltry .128 vs. Willis this year. Good thing righties are hitting a whopping .325. Should be a good night for Burrell to get back on track (Burrell has 2 career HRs off Willis... and has a .382 OBP in 55 career PA).

Also, Nunez is a career .417 hitter against Willis in 12 at bats.

Ok Wayne. I know sarcasm when I see it. Maybe in my zeal to defend the little guy, I'm overreaching a bit. But I do think Condrey has been the most unfairly maligned member of the Phillies' pen. In fact, he has been the ONLY unfairly maligned member of the Phillies' pen. The rest of the members have been maligned quite fairly. Condrey has, in truth, been mostly pretty good.

BAP: I disagree... I think both Madson and Mesa have been maligned unfairly. Mesa has been much more reliable than he's been given credit for... and from Game 4 to the game Madson got injured, he was our best reliever.

Does Costanzo get a September callup to Philadelphia this year?

The Phils are dreadfully short on position players to begin with. Both Utley and Bourn should be back by September 1. Do you add a powerful lefthanded bat in Costanzo, who at least has the chance (if he makes contact) of hitting it out of CBP. It could come down to a extra inning game again this year late in September. Do you want Chris Roberson or Rod Barajas pinch-hitting in the 12th inning or would you like a Costanzo up there, who is one of the league leaders in homeruns in AA and has the potential of going yard? Plus, who out of the minors is going to get called up on September 1 anyway? Jaramillo is likely, but who else? No Stick Sandoval? 40 year old Pedro Swann? Maybe try and find Randall Simon again? Who else is there?

bap on Condrey: "15 of those appearances, he allowed 0 runs" You failed to mention that he allowed inherited runs in 8 of those 15 outings.

Well, Madson and Mesa haven't been sent back to Ottawa 5 times this year. Besides, Madson gets quite a bit of love on this board. As for Mesa, he has gotten good results so far, but it can't & won't last. I feel a lot more comfortable with Condrey in the game than I do with Mesa.

Billy: You're right. I did neglect to look at inherited runners -- which was an oversight on my part, as that is clearly an important thing to look at. But I am going to have to double check your work before I offer any concessions. My impression has certainly been that Condrey has been good many more times than he has been bad. It's just that, when he's bad, he's been really bad.

Bay Area Phan - you are wrong. I agree with you 100%.

bap, Condrey has allowed inherited or earned runs in 13 of his 20 appearances. And most of the appearances were less than 2 innings. That is not exactly putting out fires.

Wayne: I guess I'm just so used to sarcasm on this board that, if someone agrees with me, I just assume he's being sarcastic. Not to mention that I didn't think I'd find too many people out there who agreed with me on Condrey.

Willingham is out with kidney stones.. FYI.

Bed Beard: Your statement about Jaramillo is based on what?

Mesa has given up 14 runs (7 earned) in 24 innings. Sorry, still not comfortable with him on the mound. Meanwhile, Wild Thing Romero has given up 1 run in 11 innings. Go figure.

Read on.

Billy: I doubt I'm going to go back & do a study of his apperances today. But I will say a couple things in his defense. First, the fact that he allowed inherited runners to score may or may not be significant, depending on the circumstances. If you take over with the bases loaded & no outs, & you allow a single inherited run to score, you've done a good job, not a bad job. If you take over with men on 2nd and 3rd & 1 out, & you allow 1 run, you've performed to par & basically done your job. So, without seeing a breakdown of the situations & circumstances in which these inherited runners have scored, I can't comment on Condrey's success or lack of success.

Second, not every reliever is ideally suited to come in with men on base. Condrey isn't a strikeout pitcher so he probably wouldn't be my ideal choice in that situation. But he has fared very well when he has come in at the start of the inning.

I have been to multiple Reading games this year and have not been impressed with Costanzo. He either hits it out or strikes out and makes Wes Helms look like a Gold Glove 3rd baseman. I think the only way he belongs in CBP in September is if he buys a ticket.
On the other hand I have been impressed with Peeeeeeeeeeeeter Ramos. He seems to be a nice hitter and obviously an outstanding fielder. I'd much rather see him in Philly than Sandoval or Thurston.
And since the rosters expand, how about adding another outfielder in Greg Jacobs whose having a great year in Reading?
I also would like to see Michael Spidale called up just to hear his name announced over the PA system.

bap, I looked at each of Condrey's outings again. He actually has done better with inherited runs scored than I posted. He's actually fared well (allowing only 2 inherited runs). My bad as I looked at IR instead of IRS. I still don't think he is very good though, but your position that his overall stats are skewed by some horrendous games is accurate.

bap, I looked at each of Condrey's outings again. He actually has done better with inherited runs scored than I posted. He's actually fared well (allowing only 2 inherited runs). My bad as I looked at IR instead of IRS. I still don't think he is very good though, but your position that his overall stats are skewed by some horrendous games is accurate.

Costanzo is not the answer at third or anywhere. Saw him in the cold of April when Maloney pitched, then in June when Carrasco debuted and then when Josh Outman made his premier in July. Still can't field worth a darn and still stikes out on the breaking ball too much. Yes, I did get to see some of his long balls but he will wind up in an Independent League somewhere.

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