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Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Comments

speaking of Freddy Garcia:

"Righthander Freddy Garcia (right shoulder strain) will throw a bullpen session today in Clearwater. If it goes well, he could throw live batting practice Aug. 10."

also: Utley's stitches are out; Bourn can rehab in 2-3 weeks; Madson won't throw for 1-2 more weeks; Victorino starts rehab this weekend.

full injury update here.

A 3-3 homestand is not acceptable.
4-2 might be mildly acceptable.

Eric Byrnes just got 30 mil/3 years from the DBacks...I'd do the same in a heartbeat for Rowand. By the way, if you look at their stats they're almost identical (Rowand and Byrnes).

Does anyone know who the Braves will have pitching against Hamels, Eaton, and Moyer this weekend?

No mention of former Phillies pitcher Jay Baller getting arrested for having cocaine, a loaded pistol, and $15,000 in cash? It was reported in Weitzel's newspaper and everything... gee whiz.

Someone posted how we're scoring more runs right now with Chase/Victorino out of the lineup. I have no idea how, but if we keep that up, we can go 5-1 here.

No, I'm not high.

"Righthander Freddy Garcia (right shoulder strain) will throw a bullpen session today in Clearwater. If it goes well, he could throw live batting practice Aug. 10."

So he'll be making his first start back on Friday?

lekh - I'm sure Rowand will get a lot more. Rowand's got a 35 point OPS advantage this year, a 13 point OPS advantage over his career, is a centerfielder who can play the corners instead of a corner OF who can play center, and - maybe most importantly - is two years younger.

loctastic - I guess he could...makes my skepticism in the last thread look pretty unfounded. I'll be interested to hear how this session and the 8/10 outing go.

I think locastic was being sarcastic.

locastic - funny

Rowand should be able to get more than Byrnes. Too bad it won't be from the Phils.

well, I realize that now...but why not? if the report's true, he could be making a rehab start by the weekend.

ae: all good points, though I'd be hard pressed to find a player more similar to Rowand than Byrnes, though I could be mistaken. That said, would you sign Rowand for 3 years at 30 mil, or perhaps more realistically, 3 years at 40 mil, or even 4 years at 55. I would do the first and maybe the second.

"That's why I was shocked to hear Pat Gillick, speaking at a function last night, said if the Phillies finish the six-game home stand 3-3, it would be “acceptable.”

Gillick forgot to add, "Because we want to stay in the playoff race to ensure they we continue to sell a lot tickets for those Sept. home games."

at Rowand's age though, it does seem likely that he could get at least a 4 year deal, maybe even five, in which case we'd have no shot at signing him. By the way, what are the chances of Rowand being signed by the braves, he'd be a lot cheaper than andruw jones.

yeah, that's probably the kind of deal he'd get, although it seems likely to me that he'll try for a few less mil per year on a longer contract - more like Matthews' 5/$50M.

Just saw the Gillick comment on Daily News Live. That just pisses me off.

I know the Braves fans are pretty high on him...although if they're going to make a serious bid on Teixeira, maybe they won't go all out on an OF just yet.

it'd be tragic to lose Rowand to the Braves, although we would get their draft picks, no? Considering the current state of the Braves farm system, I would assume they'd hesitate to lose high picks of FAs

That's why Gillick wanted Coste in the minors! He wanted the Phillies to play .500 ball at home! Now, I get it!

anyone know what coste's contract is like, how long do we control him?

lekh: Rowand will be a Type B free agent which means we'll be eligible for a sandwich pick only, not one of the Braves picks.

Wishful thinking....They'd re-sign Rowand, and move him to left, which I heard he doesn't want to do. Then find some way to dump Burrell, as hot as he has been. That would be an outfield from right to left of Rowand/Bourne/Victorino.

oops...left to right

Wishful thinking also- Burrell continues to hit, get on base, play well and the Phils have conifidence in him next year. Does that seal the deal that Rowand would not be back with the Phils next season?

control13:

You propose to "dump Burrell" how?

You think it's a good idea to "dump Burrell" because?

1) He has a FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE.
2) His production this season can not be matched by anyone we have to take his place.

I will say nothing further about Burrell on this thread. (I may be lying about that last part.)

CJ: just curious, how do you know Rowand is type B. It does make sense though, given his injuries and subpar year when the WSox won the WS.

Headed to the game tonight. Gillick's jackass comment really makes me wonder why I continue to dump $ at CBP. Go home to toronto Gillick & bring Charlie w/ you.

lekh: For a couple of reasons... first, that's where he was going into this season and second, the percentage of players who will be type A was actually lowered for this season. His performance this year, although great, won't be enough to move him high enough on the rankings to become a Type A.

Coste was first put on a 40 man roster last
year so they have him for the next 2 years.

Determining which class a free agent is based on the statistical averages over the last 2 seasons. A free agent in the top 30% of his position is classified as Type A. After Rowand's year this year, I think it's possible, if not probable, that he'll be classified as type A.

Utley is taking fielding practice on DNL with one hand.

He's batting second tonight too.

CJ:

I said it was wishful thinking, I'm aware he has a full NT.
Glad to see Pat heating up, we need it w/ all the injuries. He's a big slow guy who's a liability in the outfield. Therefore, he needs to produce offensively more consistently than he has throughout his career. You can't hit 200 up to July 1 ... or even the year he had last year. I'm not sure Bourne can hit well enough to be full time, but that would give us one of the best defensive outfields, and a lot of speed.

Iocastic, that was definetly the comment of the summer.

In today's Chicago Sun-Times its clear the Sox see Rowand as being in the upper echelon of free agents: "The Sox clearly will be in the market for relievers -- whether through free agency or trade -- and will attempt to land one of the ''Big Four'' center fielders on the market: Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron or Aaron Rowand."

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/499382,CST-SPT-sox07.article

I don't think Gillick's comments are all that offensive. I thought most people agreed that if they play .500 ball until they are fully healthy that most would accept that, some would even hope for it.

The comments he made last year about the team not being able to compete until 2008 were far more shocking, but he was really being brutally honest, and he was probably right.

Tom: Yes but the 3-3 comment is not something that you should hear from your GM. Period.

The only reason I would want the Phils to resign Rowand was if they could find a taker for Vic or Bourn and get back a 3b or pitcher (prospect or player). Otherwise it doesn't really make sense.

I know what you mean Tom, he may technically be right, considering injuries/pitching woes, but he shouldn't have said it. He should've shut up when he said "4-2".

No, the White Sox thing Rowand is in the top 4 Free Agent Cfers, not necessarily overall free agents.

thing=think

jeremy: The problem is that Rowand will be lumped in with all OF and 1B in the National League. He'll have to have one hell of a close to the season to make it to Type A. If this were based on just this season, sure... but you have to include last year as well.

On Rowand:

I would sign him for the Byrnes deal, but there is little chance he goes for only 3 years. I wouldn't go anywhere near 5/55, however, because:
1) He has been an up and down player over his career
2) Given the way he plays, he is a moderate-to-high injury risk
3) The Phillies have not one, but TWO solid replacements in CF. I would rather spend less money on a power bat for the corner OF, than pay 10% of the team budget for a position we can cover at close to the league minimum.

Rowand will be a good test case to see if the Phillies recognize how inflated offensive numbers are at CPB. It's likely we will see a lot of guys come in and put up good numbers because of the environment, but we can't pay them all retail price.

On his FA status, I think it's definately possible Rowand goes as a type A. Wasn't Delluci a type A last year?

Dave X is right. It doesn't make sense to re-sign Rowand unless you can find a taker for either Bourn or Victorino at a price that would be palatable to the Phillies. Otherwise, take the sandwich pick for Rowand and insert Bourn into centerfield. It's a position in which we don't have to spend the money so we can spend that money on much needed pitching.

Forgot to put in the split stats:

Rowand
Home OPS: 1006
Road OPS: 804

Rowand was only 5 spots from a Type A last year (he was 40th; A was the top 35). how much did the top percentage decrease by? because I could see him moving up a lot after this season.

and yes, Dellucci was Type A last year.

"Starting in 2007, Type A free agent redefined to top 20 percent at position (from top 30 percent) and Type B to 21-40 percent (from top 31-50 percent)."

That's what I thought... Rowand will have to crack the top 20 percent to be considered Type A. A tall order, to say the least.

Why not sign him just to have him available via trade (so he doesn't basically walk for free? - a sandwich pick is hardly consolation). The only issue I have is that the Phils don't even seem to want to TALK about an extension during the season when Rowand said he'll talk and even consider a home team discount. If no serious talks by the end of the season, he hits the open market and is as good as gone with nothing to show.

Even if you feel Bourn/Vic are the CF of the future, why not sign Rowand with the intent of trading him down the line?

control13: Good thinking. Who needs .900 OPS when you have a speedy outfield.

ae: The Elias ratings change this year. Now only the top 20% of each category will be Type A. I'll be shocked if Rowand is a Type A free agent.

Unfortunately, Jason didn't provide us with the CONTEXT of the statement nor the question that was posed. But given that 3 of the games are against the Braves... who are right now BETTER and MORE HEALTHY than the Phillies... going 2-1 against teh Marlins the finsihing 1-2 against the Brav-os is acceptable. Given the scope of the season... going .500 this week and holding steady Since all the NL East teams are playing each other. He's not saying it's preferable.. But he certainly is not going to say... NOTHING less than 6-0 is acceptable. That's hogwash...

if you honestly think what Gillick says has an affect one way or the other on the team, you are kidding.

The PHillies last year didn't try and WIN to SPITE Gillick last year. Burrell didn't go on a tear because Gillick questioned the CORNER offense...

OVER

RE

ACTION

Save the emotional drama for the later double switches...

Heading to the game.

Lohse is coming up on DNL, if anyone cares.

I'm not so sure it's that tall of an order. even by the new rules, these guys would've been Type A last year: Randy Winn, Geoff Jenkins, Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green, Brad Hawpe, Brian Giles. I don't think it's a stretch to say that Rowand's 05/06 seasons could be considered the equal of some of those guys'.

of course it's far from certain, but I don't think it's impossible.

although I'm assuming that Elias only looks at the last two seasons, which is how I thought it works. if they give some kind of bonus points for past performance, then some of those rankings make more sense.

I guess all I'm saying is that while it may be unlikely, I don't think it's impossible.

...and that should have said Rowand's 06/07 and those guys' 05/06 up there.

Williard: Why kind of message does it send to free agents if we sign them with the intention of trading them? I just can't imagine this would be a realistic scenario. Besides... dosen't a team have to wait to trade a player they sign as a free agent?

ae: Yeah, Elias includes just the last two seasons. I suppose it's possible... he's just in a tough batch. They take into account Plate Appearances, Batting Average, On Base Percentage, Home Runs and Runs Batted In.

OK, Mike. Have fun!

WP,

I don't think anyone here is saying not to negotiate with Rowand, only that a major 5 year commitment is probably not the best allocation of resources when you consider the backup options.

Also, if Matthew's contract is any indication of what Rowand gets, a trade won't be easy.

'Lil Sarge got a full no-trade clause through '09 and limited through '11.

Cunningham - that's foolish. The Phils need to BEAT the Braves head up in order to have a shot at the playoffs. Period.

with the late summer heat comes chris wheeler at his all-time most annoying. expect numerous refernces to how "the ball is really jumping off the bats tonight."

wasn't jay baller part of the famous 5-for-1 deal?

BEAT the Braves "head to head". Oops.

maybe a good comparison is Gary Matthews. he would still have been a Type A this year, even with the new cutoff (he was 21st; the top 22 would be 20%). is Rowand's 2006/07 as good as Matthews' 2005/06? even just looking at those limited criteria, I think they pretty clearly are.

and of course the other factor is that it's Rowand's performance in context with everyone else etc etc. but again: I think it's definitely possible that he's a Type A.

I was shocked to read on MLBTR.com that Wily Mo cleared waivers. Not saying that we could have worked out a trade, but i don't know the harm of taking a shot at getting him dumped on us. Seems like a good fit given he's good enough to start but has also split time before. Alot more K's and moon shots for the lineup.

Clout:

Glad Burrell is producing now, but the guy gets paid to drive in runs, not walk. When he walks, he clogs up the bases because he can't run. Add that to the runs he gives up in the outfield, and I wouldn't shed a tear to see him go, though we are stuck with him through next year. Are you really that enamoured with him?

"Glad Burrell is producing now, but the guy gets paid to drive in runs, not walk. "

Well, speaking technically, Burrell is paid to help the team win ballgames. Are you really going to argue that a .423 OBP doesn't help a team win games?

I would agree that Burrell is about the worst possible .920 OPS player in the game because of his lack of speed and defense, but the worst .920 OPS player is still pretty damn good, and the worst .423 OBP player is even better.

normally, i'd agree with mike about reaction to gillick's comments as over-reaction. i tend to take public comments from GMs and such with a grain of salt. it's not as if they're volunteering vital information. most times, they're just trying to talk to the media without any sort of major incident. it's like talking to the cops, basically.

however, i think gillick's comments reflect the culture of the franchise, which is very stodgy and content in most ways. however they feel privately, their public face too often crosses into "hey we're better at this than you think" territory. there's no way, in any circumstance that a GM of a winning team shoudl express content with mediorcrity, no matter how short the schedule, how difficult the opponent, or how narrow the context.

can you imagine jeff lurie saying somethignalong thos elines, or pat croce-era sixers giving us the "happy to be competitive" line? no. those platitudes are best expressed by empty suits david montgomery, ruban amaro or chris wheeler. it's not what you say when you aspire to be great. it's what you say when you think you're decent and that's enough.

in sports it's a deadly mentaility. gillick probbaly didn't have it before he got here. now he does. go figure.

How bad is Pat in the outfield? Lowest fielding percentage (.950) of any outfielder in the NL playing in more than 65 games. Wow. Didn't expect that.

Are we really going to argue about Burrell "clogging the bases" (which has little to no basis in fact) and the "runs he gives up in the outfield" (which has some basis in fact)?

Are we going to? Really?

CJ - Just hadn't realized his defense had fallen this far. Again, don't get to see the action live much, and thought the stat was interesting. I think the "clogging the bases" thing is BS, and the argument has been soundly dismissed by the Beerleaguer stat heads in the past week or so.

Arguing about Burrell is akin to arguing about politics or religion. We can discuss him 'til the cows come home, but there's little chance anyone's opinion will be swayed one way or the other.

control: I don't look at ball players in an emotional way, which is why you and I disagree on Burrell.

Gameday says our lineup will be:

SS Rollins
2B Iguchi
LF Burrell
1B Howard
CF Rowand
RF Werth
CA Ruiz
3B Nunez
PI Moyer

Werth(less), Ruiz, No-Hit, Moyer make a helluva black hole ...

Before we spill a lot more digital ink on Burrell, can we at least agree that as of now the Phillies' contractual obligation to Eaton is far more onerous to the franchise?

Florida counters with:

SS Ramirez
2B Uggla
3B Cabrera
CA Olivo
CF Ross
RB Hermida
1B Wood
LF Linden
PI VanderHurk

I think I'm generally knowledgable about baseball... but Olivo, Ross, Wood and Linden? Man, I should pay more attention to Florida.

Florida's cleanup hitter has a sparkling .660 OPS this year, second lowest in the lineup... well, third if you count the pitcher.

Well, corner OF defense at CBP is way more important than offense. You'll win way more games at CBP using a speedy, good-leather guy with a .750 OPS in LF than some slow-footed guy with a .920 OPS. Right?

ah, Miguel Olivo...maybe the most impatient hitter in the history of baseball.

you really have to try to strike out ten times as often as you walk.

CJ: That's a truly sucky lineup because they're sitting Jacobs & Willingham for reasons unkown.

clout: I suppose I could check this... but are those guys bad against lefties?

Although, it's not like Moyer hammers lefties. This season, lefties hit Moyer slightly bette rthan righties.

Clout: Sitting Jacobs b/c Moyer is a lefty.
Not sure why Willingham is sitting, though

Why not Dobbs over Nunez with a shitty right hander going for the Marlins?

"I think I'm generally knowledgable about baseball... but Olivo, Ross, Wood and Linden?"

Hey, don't pick on all that vaunted Marlins talent! Clout might get upset.

Well..

Nice pitch, Jamie.

Anyone mention batting practice is over?

That didn't take long.

Did anyone just see both umpires laugh at Cholly? That's embarrassing.

Naylman,

Nunez always starts with Moyer on the mound.

80 MPH fastball + RH hitters = lots of groundballs to 3B.

I actually like this. I think it is one of Cholly's best tactical decisions, shows he is thinking.

kdon: Be nice or I'll repeat what you said about our bullpen in the offseason.

Kdon: thank you, forgot the Moyer factor

Now THAT was a generous strike.

rut roh

After seeing what they did to his strike... maybe throwing balls ain't the worst idea. Is Durbin up?

Does any team in the National League have 2 worse starting pitchers in their rotation than Moyer & Eaton?

well, dammit... can't even catch a break.

Right now, it looks like we'll be LUCKY to go 3-3 on the homestand.

It also looks out ,y window like a major rain is a' comin'...pray for it.

"kdon: Be nice or I'll repeat what you said about our bullpen in the offseason."

Clout, I would love that! It would be a big improvement over you misrepresenting what I said in the offseason :P

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