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Monday, July 23, 2007

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News update: Reliever Joel Pineiro has been designated for assignment to make room for Jon Lester on the Red Sox roster, Terry Francona announced after yesterday's game. Pineiro is out of options, meaning the team has 10 days to release or trade the pitcher.

What do you supposed we learned about this guy by having Ruben Amaro Jr. watching him pitch?

This was such a good post from s97 on the last thread I want to repeat it here for those of you who think every Phillies prospect is golden and ought not to be traded for help that could put the team into the playoffs:

Wrapping up an earlier discussion: the four can't-miss "young guns" were Dave Coggin, Rob Burger, Randy Knoll and Jason Kershner. Full recap at: http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=254&p=2&c=163315

Also, in the Scout.com 2003 version of Giles' cocktail napkin, "With Hamels, and righties Gavin Floyd, Ezequiel Astacio, Elizardo Ramirez and Robinson Tejeda, the Phillies have five pitchers with the potential to not only make it to Philadelphia, but also to be successful once they get there." Ramirez should be a cautionary tale in using AA promotions carefully.

On a related story about counting on prospects coming to the rescue, here's a link to a 2002 USA Today Phillies prospect report: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/phillies/prospect.htm

Note how there's around a 50% success rate and how Utley is "still" regarded highly and is "Just an adequate defender at second base", so they're moving him to third.

Re Towers: so the question becomes, Bourn for a 9 week rental of this guy. I vote "no."

Interesting post, Clout.

Love how it was "Marlon Byrd = All Star."

That being said, there are certain players that shouldn't be moved. I think I can count maybe four or five untouchables within the system. The rest should be fair game.

Former Mariner now on the board for the Phillies, along with Towers, apparently.

Towers is really inconsistent, but my thought is both these pitchers could be nice rentals pitching in a new league that hasn't seen them before.

Towers for the rotation, Pinerio for the bullpen is more attractive than some of the names I keep reading, like Contreras, Trachsel, Lohse.

For some reason, I could envision both these pitchers landing with Atlanta and helping them win the division.

For some reason, I could envision both these pitchers landing with Atlanta and helping them win the division.

I hope you're wrong, Jason.

Gillick, the time is now. After a momentum-building swing through "Whale's Vagina," show the team - and its fans - that the organization is ready to win now.

I want no parts of Josh Towers. No stuff at all. I was looking at Lohse and he was ripped by 3 AL teams during interleague play, but he's had quality starts in 5 of his last 7 starts against NL teams.

Pineiro is a once-promising young pitcher who never came back from arm trouble 3 years ago. I don't see him helping.

The Marlins desperately need a CF, but would they be so desperate as to consider dealing D-Train for Bourn? I'd throw in Happ to make that deal. The problem here is the Marlins are probably now more likely to trade bad-boy Olsen and keep Willis.

Speaking of Byrd:

186 ABs, .355/.404/.516

bridoc: I'm with you. The Phillies don't have more than 5 can't-miss prospects anyway. Where did Baseball America rank the quality of their minor league system? I know it wasn't in the top 15.

Jason: As you know, we've that before from Mr. Byrd. Or should I say, "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Byrd."

Scott Olsen + Phils = match made in heaven!

Towers is bad in interleague (5.45 ERA overall, and 6.75 ERA this year) and, more importantly, bad against the Braves (6.94 ERA in 2 starts) and Mets (6.55 ERA in 2 starts). doesn't look like a good bet.

as far as Pineiro, we've already gotten lucky on one Red Sox bullpen castoff (even though Romero's given up 11 baserunners in under 7 innings); the odds of repeating that don't seem that great.

If I remember correctly, Byrd really did seem like one of those guys who was actually going to make it here, but of course, fizzled. Wasn't he arrested for something(domestic abuse) right before he got the call up?

Pinero might be an interesting bullpen pickup. Still not that overwhelmed by he or Towers.

Dtrain would be nice, but didn't the Marlins say they won't trade him in the division? The Phils would really have to sweeten the deal.

Fish won't keep Willis any more than they'll keep Miggie. They can't pay them. They had about 250 people in the stadium yesterday. But Bourn won't come close to getting that deal done.

agree that Bourn isn't even close to Willis, but that general idea - Bourn to Marlins - seems like it should be worth pursuing.

of course, it also exponentially increases the probability that Bourn turns into the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, because that's just how those things go...

All this Byrd talk makes me appreciate Rowand even more as it was not that long ago CF was a gapping hole in Philly.

He reminds me of a hybrid of Daulton as the backbone of the team with a blue collar winner's mentality (w/o the juice) in Dykstra.

His comment on the catch at the end of the game he was about to collide into Bourn to preserve Durbin's shutout:

"The ball was going to be caught either way," Rowand said with a smile. "No matter how it happened, the ball was going to be caught."

Both parties would be best served by him staying in Philly as it appears he likes it here and the foundation is set to be competitive for the next few years.

$pend the money on Rowand and roll the dice with the young arms in the system.

It will probably be money better spent anyway as they have to overpay to bring in arms to CBP anyway and I prefer Bourn as a 4th outfield and speed threat off the bench.

Towers is alright, despite his bad interleague numbers I still think you'd see an improvement once he got here. That's such a small sample size and he's pitchng against the Yankees, Red Sox, Devil Rays, all great offensive clubs. Pineiro though has been shaky for a few years now.

The Yankees just picked up Scott Williamson, by the way. He would have been a decent pickup.

ae: I've been thinking a lot about Bourn's maximum upside since he seems to be the best trading chip and I like RSB's comparison to Otis Nixon, although Nixon was a switch-hitter who had 3 .290+ seasons. I just don't see Bourn hitting for that high of an average unless he were a strict platoon player. In fact, that may be the best use of him. Another thing that could maxmize his upside would be to become as good a bunter as Juan Pierre, who in his prime got 15-20 bunt singles a year (and one year had 27). If Bourn could do that, he'd be a .300 hitter. Big if, though.

JB: If the Phils sign Rowand and don't add any pitching in the offseason, what year would you be looking for the Phillies to contend? 2010? 2011? Remember they have a bunch of free agent pitchers this offseason.

Bourn & Carrasco might get the Fish's attention. I'd take on the world with Willis-Myers-Hamels at the top of my rotation.

I'd take on the world with Willis-Myers-Hamels at the top of my rotation.

Too bad Myers would only pitch the 9th inning.

I don't think that idiocy will be allowed to continue much longer - certainly not past Cholly's last day.

the A's Joe Kennedy is a guy who's been linked to Philadelphia who I wouldn't mind us getting - FA-to-be, groundball pitcher, pretty stingy with walks. unfortunately his K rate has just plummeted this year, but a move (back) to the NL would probably help. I wonder if you could get him for less than Bourn; we would be buying relatively low.

clout, I agree that RSB's Otis Nixon comp is good. one thing that Bourn has over Nixon, though, is that he seems to have carried over his walks from the minors; Nixon walked a ton in the minors (like 110 times in 127 games at age 22), but didn't really start walking in the majors until his 30s.

been reading a while- never posted, but to revisit and fuel the dubee discussion:

anyone else notice that cholly ALWAYS makes the mound visits for Moyer? Has ANYONE ever seen Dubee go out there when Moyer is on the mound? Has Moyer pretty much become the pitching coach, with dubee just holding the title and the bullpen phone?

food for thought...

jobbers posted this on the last thread, but it's worth bringing up again, given how much everyone dumps on Dubee:

"After Durbin's June 29 start, pitching coach Rich Dubee and 44-year-old veteran Jamie Moyer spoke with him about dictating the game's tempo by controlling his excitement.

"The bus doesn't leave," said the methodical Moyer, "until you're done pitching.""

does this mean that Dubee is a great pitching coach? of course not. but it's worth remembering that there's a lot going on that we don't see.

Towers is exactly the kind of loser I figured the Phillies to go after. What exactly would Josh Towers do for them that Kyle Kendrick doesn't already do? And please don't tell me that, because he's a veteran, he's more of a sure thing than Kendrick. This guy's ERA was almost 9.00 last year & opponents are hitting nearly .300 off of him over his entire 7-year career. If Towers is a sure thing to do anything, it's to suck. On any given day, Kyle Kendrick or J.D. Durbin has just as good a chance of throwing a good game as Towers -- probably better, since both guys have hot hands right now.

Pineiro is equally unexciting, though he'll probably end up coming here because the Phillies are a retirement home for all of Gillick's ex-players.

Guys like Towers & Lohse are not going to make the Phillies any better and, with the way Kendrick & Durbin have been pitching, they'll very likely make us worse. As I said yesterday, the most plausible way of improving the team in the near term is to trade for one of the many decent bullpen arms who might be avaialable, then move Myers back to the starting rotation. How about Bourn and Costanzo for Chad Cordero?

I prefer Lohse to Towers. But then I haven't seen either one pitch for quite a while, so I know even less than Ruben Amaro. I think.

Durbin and Kendrick's performances the last two weeks haven't made me believe we've found our rotation answers. But, they've shown enough that we're not nearly as desperate as we were a month ago.

What I mean is this: I think the Phils would have been more likely to make a really bad trade for a marginal, at best, starter. I could really have seen us dumping Bourn for Contrares or something horribly stupid like that.

At this point, I'd be in favor of dealing some "prospects" that don't include Bourn or Carrasco and maybe one or two other "untouchables" for a guy like Joe Kennedy. I frankly think he is our best fit for a potential upgrade. Get him in the rotation for whichever or Kendrick or Durbin stumble (which I think will be Kendrick... he may have peaked this year).

I think people are being pretty naive about Myers ability to return to the rotation this year.

Right now, Myers is being prepared to return for one or two (at most) innings at a time... and probably not in back-to-back days for awhile.

So what would it take to get him ready to start again? It would take at least a month... at least, and maybe more. The Yankees Phil Hughes pulled a hamstring and hasn't pitched since May 1st. They're now working him back and trying to get his pitch count back up and that's going to take at least three weeks, if not more. Myers had a shoulder injury... you think he's going to be rotation ready any faster.

If he's ready to come back by the beginning of September, and then you're talking about maybe 5 starts.

How will he help us more this year? As a reliever who will get 20+ appearances... or just five starts?

Let's stretch him back out for next season if that's what is decided is best for Myers and for this team.

I am hoping that moyer is enjoying being back in his hometown area... and i hope that come this off-season or next year, when the tank is finally empty, that this organization does the right think and offer him a coaching posistion.

I think these young kids are really enjoying having moyer around.

Clout: Marlins are on record as stating that they will not deal Willis inside the NL East, where he can come back to haunt them 3-4 times/yr.

Bourn absolutely cannot be dealt - he will be the starting CF next year.
Do not assume the Phillies are going to re-sign Rowand - they will not, as he will command too much money in the offseason.
Therefore, you need to have a major-league caliber CF available - Bourn satisfies this demand, on the cheap.
He's not better than Rowand, but unless they are going to make a serious play for Andruw Jones in the offseason, Bourn will do.

Hughes' injury was pretty serious. Myers' injury, to hear the Phillies tell it, was relatively minor. Yes, it will take a longer rehab if he's to come back as a starter, but what are we talking about? 2 more weeks? So give him 2 more weeks. I just don't see how Josh Towers caliber players do anything to improve our chances. Towers stinks, whereas Durbin has pitched 2 great games in a row & Kendrick has been pretty good for the last month. The idea that Towers is somehow a more proven commodity than these guys is bunk. The only thing he has proven is that he sucks. I'd rather take a shot on a guy who might NOT suck.

Even if the Phillies are absolutely, 100% locked in to the idea that Myers must return to the bullpen, I still wouldn't waste my time with Lohse or Towers. At least go after someone who might be half-way decent like Matt Morris or Bronson Arroyo.

Then who, with any value, are you willing to deal Crazy Jon?

I think these young kids are really enjoying having moyer around.

As I see it, Dubee is useless. Moyer should be the player/coach now.

I watch a lot of Mets games given that I live in NYC...can you imagine what a pitching coach like Rick Peterson could do with these young pitchers. The best thing that can be said of Dubee is that he hasn't screwed up Hamels. Yet.

I'll take a different stance - if the Phillies can finally beat up on the weakies that they are playing this week (5 out of 6, for instance), I would not trade away the little future talent that we have for most of the smegma being bandied about.
I'd almost prefer that they wait until August and get assistance at that time, after players clear waivers - would be able to get help then for much cheaper.
I'm really against them giving up either Bourn or Victorino, which is what quality pitching help would require.

By the way, I keep hearing people dog the Dodgers lineup when mentioning the success of our pitching this last week... but that's just plain wrong.

The Dodgers have scored 462 runs this year... 14 more than the Mets, just 6 fewer than the Braves and just 10 fewer than the first place Brewers. And the Dodgers are tied with the Phillies for the highest batting average in the National League and are tied for the second highest OBP. It's true, they don't slug nearly as well, but the team can hit.

If we see Gillick trade Bourn, Victorino or Carrasco for some of the waste of pitching space available we'll know he'll go down as one of the worst GM's the Phillies have ever had.

It would be unconscionable.

BAP: Actually, the injury wasn't that serious, but he did tweak an ankle, too.

The issue is that despite the relatively minor nature of the hamstring injury, it's still taking this long to build up his arm strength. Now imagine having to buildup the arm strength of someone with a shoulder injury who hasn't pitched as a starter since the first month of the season. It's going to take at least a month. At least.

Actually, the delay with Hughes occurred because he suffered a severe sprained ankle while rehabbing his hamstring injury. So it's meaningless to compare his situation to Myers'.

I don't profess to know exactly how long it would take to work Myers back into starting shape, but I have never heard of a starting pitcher requiring 6 weeks of minor league rehab in order to get back into game shape. I would guess we're talking about 2 extra weeks of rehab time at most. I believe it would be well worth it.

But even if you throw Myers out of the starting equation, I just don't see how guys like Towers or Lohse would represent improvements over what we have now. I'd rather ride the hot hand than go with a guy who we know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, isn't very good.

BAP: The injury itself is less of an issue than the amount of time it's taking to stretch him back out.

Phil Hughes was a starter when he got injured. He last started on May 1st.

Brett Myers last started on April 13th... he hasn't pitched 5 innings in a game since opening day.

It's going to take at least 3 rehab starts to get Hughes ready to pitch... which takes at least 2 weeks.

You think Myers will be back in two weeks? Or even three?

It's going to take at least a month to get Brett Myers to be starter-ready. Anything faster than that is going to put an unprepared pitcher on the mound. Why would we want that? We'd either get subpar pitching or risk him to further injury.

As far as the trade market goes... I'm not enthused either. I personally prefer someone like Kennedy, but I'm not opposed to bringing in Lohse or Towers if the cost is cheap. I just don't believe Kendrick, especially, or perhaps Durbin can maintain this level of performance.

clout - Obviously the Phillies will need to trade to get a pitcher versus overpaying for a FA.

I let me heart speak on opinion as opposed to reality which is taboo here regarding signing Rowand and rolling the dice with the young arms.

The reality is that we need to score more runs at home than the opposition and by losing Rowand it compounds that situation.

Not that this is any news but a recent quote from SI.COM regarding CBP and attracting free agent pitchers:

One competing executive on Citizens Bank Ballpark: 'It's a joke. What free-agent pitcher is going to say, 'I want to go to Philly?"' In other words, the next 10,000 defeats may not take as long you might imagine.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/07/19/scoop.thursday/1.html

ANY UPDATES ON GARCIA? I am waiting for FO to say that they got their trade deadline acquistion in Garcia coming back.

I got it!

Pat Burrell for Matt Morris... Phils on the hook for some of his salary. Phils play Bourn and Dobbs as an outfield platoon.

See how easy it is.

Byrd was never given a full chance in Philly. He hit .303 in his 2003 rookie year and the closed-minded Bowa didn't like him. A terrible manager. So what do the Phillies do? They sign free agent Doug Metunwa Glanville over the winter. Way to go, Ed!

I want no parts of Matt Morris. The guy is done.

yo utley broke his hand that means that the phillies aren't goin to make the playoffs this year

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