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Friday, July 06, 2007

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Really tough matchup tonight (Francis )and series for the Phils. Hate to say it, but I see the Phils going into the All-Star under .500 after they get swept in this series.

Phillies + young LH stud = Loss. Hope I'm wrong.

I dont think they'll get swept because they may want to celebrate their 10,000th loss at home.

Thanks for the list Clout. The Question was 30 MLB Free-Agent Relievers, if you want to debate trades for pitching and who we would lose, or foreign Asian free-agent signings, we can do that too in other threads, you cannot mix apples and oranges and pears when using logic. Only idiots do that. Feel free to add any MLB Free Agent Relievers that you forgot. The Oranges and Pears…

15 Non MLB Free Agents inaccurately placed on Clout’s list: Heath Bell, Brian Bruney, Jon Coutlangus, Ambiorix Burgos, Jesus Colome. Lenny DiNardo, Brendan Donnelly, Kevin Gregg, Justin Miller, Hideki Okajima, Al Reyes, Rafael Soriano, Kyle Snyder, Chin-Hui Tsao, Bob Wickman.

Here is your list Alphabetized, and now we all can debate with accuracy what we would have done if we were the GM (and not Pat Gillick) who decided it was not worth losing first and second round draft picks on truly (aside from one player) marginal or often injured talent. The Apples.

12 guys that 30 Major League Teams Picked Over -- Joe Borowski, Chad Bradford, Octavio Dotel, Aaron Fultz, Ryan Franklin, Eric Gagne, David Riske, Rudy Seanez, Justin Speier, Russ Springer, Ron Villone, David Weathers.

Joe Borowski - Lose Joe Savery P Chad Bradford - Lose Joe Savery P Octavio Dotel - Free Aaron Fultz - Lose Travis d'Arnaud C Ryan Franklin - Free
Eric Gagne - Free
David Riske - Lose Joe Savery P Rudy Seanez - Free
Justin Speier - Lose Joe Savery P
Russ Springer - Lose Joe Savery P Ron Villone - Free David Weathers - Lose Joe Savery P

I would have taken a flyer on Gagne (free) who pitched 2 innings in 2006 and had 2 herniated disks, and made a run at Speier, (Lose Joe Savery P) who signed in his home state of California for 18 million. Who would you have gone for? Here are everyone’s stats so we can see how great an effect they may have had for us. They would not be able to overcome the loss of 650 innings pitched from Garcia, Leiber, Myers, and Gordon.

Joe Borowski FA Marlins 2006 ERA 3.75 WHIP 1.38 1 year/$4.25M 2007 VS. LEFT: .305 BA VS. RIGHT: .316 BA
Terrible reliever. Just terrible. Over .300 BA against, injury concerns.
Chad Bradford FA Mets 2006 ERA 2.90 WHIP 1.16
3 year/$10.5M 2007 VS. LEFT: .355 BA VS. RIGHT: .275 BA
Great signing on paper, big money, Terrible this year, W 0 – L 4 so far.
Octavio Dotel FA Yankees 2006 ERA 10.80 WHIP 2.90
2 year/$10.5M 2007 VS. LEFT: .240 BA VS. RIGHT: .250 BA
10.5 million for someone with a 10.80 ERA, and 2.90 WHIP? Listed as the single most destructive reliever in Oakland A’s History. Pass.
Aaron Fultz FA Phillies 2006 ERA 4.54 WHIP 1.52
1 year/$1.65M 2007 VS. LEFT: .154 BA VS. RIGHT: .152 BA
The one that got away. Stunk big time last year. Matt Smith seemed better.
Ryan Franklin FA Reds 2006 ERA 4.54 WHIP 1.54
1 year/$1.00M 2007 VS. LEFT: .250 BA VS. RIGHT: .187 Just terrible when he was here did not pitch well in relief, has now accepted being a reliever and on a very small sample with very low strike out rate has signed an extension, would anyone have gone after him as a FA right after we got rid if him? Madness that he is even on the list.
Erig Gagne FA Dodgers 2006 Pitched 2 innings, Herniated Disks
1 year/$6.00M 2007 VS. LEFT: .111 BA VS. RIGHT: .200 BA
Great Reliever, talk about injury issues, only human ever to have 2 Tommy John.
David Riske FA White Sox 2006 ERA 3.89 WHIP 1.29
1 year/$1.25M 2007 VS. LEFT: .208 BA VS. RIGHT: .273 BA
Average Guy, average career, average year.

Rudy Seanez Resigned Dodgers
2006 ERA 4.92 WHIP 1.70
1 year/$700K
2007 VS. LEFT: .290 BA VS. RIGHT: .258 BA
38 years old released by 2 teams signed a minor league contract.

Justin Speier FA Blue Jays
2006 ERA 2.98 WHIP 1.33
4 years/$18.0M 2007 VS. LEFT: .154 BA VS. RIGHT: .107 BA
16.0 innings pitched on DL 18M contract Walnut Creek, CA boy signed with LAAngels

Russ Springer FA Astros
2006 ERA 3.47 WHIP 1.04
1 years/$1.75M 2007 VS. LEFT: .250 BA VS. RIGHT: .169 BA
Great guy, 38 years old, would not give up a first round draft pick for one year of him.

Ron Villone – OH PLEASE. 37 years old. 2006 ERA 5.04 WHIP 1.57

David Weathers Resigned Reds
2006 ERA 3.32 WHIP 1.00
2 years/$5M
2007 VS. LEFT: .211 BA VS. RIGHT: .185 BA
Great Experienced guy, 37 yo had been with Reds for 3 years, resigned.

Would anyone have tried to sign anyone else and lose our draft picks? If they were great arms sure, but they really were old marginal pitchers.

My point is that Gillick tried, and the talent was so thin, he refused to give up draft picks much to his credit.

2007 Jun-Reg Joe Savery P
2007 Jun-Sup Travis d'Arnaud C
2006 Jun-Reg Kyle Drabek P
2006 Jun-Sup Adrian Cardenas SS
2005 Jun-Reg None - - - - - - -
2004 Jun-Reg Greg Golson OF
2003 Jun-Reg None - - - - - - -

That is 4 first round picks in 2 years, after 1 first round pick in 3 years.

If you would rather have had David Riske or Aaron Fultz, or a 38 year old like Russ Springer (for one year) on the 25 man roster, than drafting for the future with Joe Savery P or Travis d'Arnaud C wecan respectfully agree to disagree, that is why baseball and the hot stove league is so wonderful. To say that Gillick did not carefully assess the 2006 Free Agent Class and did not try to sign a pitcher such as Weathers (which he did, as did the Red Sox) is just having your head in the sand

Phils win the Moyer start. That'll be it. I remember Cook being tough on them, although his record indicates otherwise (5.87 ERA, .313 BAA).

Phils clobbered him in his first game back from a clot I think. Since that start, he's been money vs the phils

Some clarifications:

"First round draft picks" -
Overall selection order in '06 and '05:
19th Savery
37th d'Arnaud
18th Drabek
37th Cardenas

Danny Payne is a Padres "first round draft pick" this year. He's apparently the 64th best player available.

With the new contract, the penalty for signing free agents was also lessened. Details mid-page at http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/262726.html. Note that Type B free agents do not require yielding any club draft slots.

FYI, http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/2006.shtml rates the Phils 1st Gillick draft as 20th out of 30. Of course, if it's too soon to accept the ranking, then the optimism is premature as well.

Coste with his second start in a row. Never thought we'd see it again.

Draft fun fact:

The Phillies were in the 17th slot in the 2005 draft, which they surrendered for an FA signing. Who was the 17th overall pick that year?

Answer: CJ Henry! (Guess we do have a first round pick from that year!)

Excellent job by Burrell, hammered a 3-1 fastball from a lefty with two in scoring position. I was afraid he'd take that pitch, but he jumped on it. Francis isn't fooling anyone. All six hitters in the first have hit the ball right on the nose.

Salisbury can slam him all they want, but I love that Pat the Bat is starting to get hot now and I'd take him any day over J.D.Drew! Keep it up!

Gavin Floyd is getting crushed 5-0 in the second.

This one looks like it could be one of those 13-12 Coors Field specials.

How exactly does Todd Helton only have seven homeruns?

J.A. Happ's line at Ottawa tonight:

0.2 IP, 5 hits, 7 runs, 7 ER, 3 walks, 0 Ks

On the Rockies feed they were belittling KK's minor league record. They seemed pretty confident of scoring at least half a dozen in the 1st.

I'm retracting the 20th ranking statement. It appears it's an alpha sort when there's tie scores.

Love the way Howard has hit two balls the other way tonight.

Meanwhile, Steve Smith strikes again...

I read awhile back somewhere that Steve Smith got the very LAST available coaching job in baseball. That should be telling us something.

If Art Howe didn't leave he'd be jobless. Would that be such a bad thing?

Thats 4 times to left against lefties in 3 days. Things looking up for Howard.

The Rockies' announcers continue to disparage Kendrick, but I don't disagree with them. Losing record at AA, poor K/BB ratio, little movement on his pitches. I don't see his run of success sustaining.

As long as KK keeps throwing this many grounders, he's got a job.

Davthom must be weeping tears of joy after that play

Have to root for Germano tonight against Braves Mets are losing 4-0 so hopefully we can win and pick up a game

Kendrick apparently does have enough of a sinker to be getting away with an otherwise meager repertoire. I do give him credit for making the pitches when he's needed to in all his starts. But I would caution against high expectations.

I'm actually hoping for 6 innings and Phils still in lead - just hope no seeing Madson tonight unless we have at least 4 run lead

how's this line:

5.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 4 HR

gavin floyd is trash.

Germano is pitching on TBS tonight.

Every 3 or 4 years, the Phillies bring up some rookie pitcher who exceeds all expectations during his first season, then never does anything again after that (i.e., Ben Rivera, Bobby Munoz, Marty Bystrom, Brandon Duckworth). I hope to be wrong, but the rational part of me says that Kyle Kendrick will eventually go down as the latest one-year wonder. There is little in his minor league pedigree to suggest that he will have sustained success at the major league level. I'm not trying to be a downer or anything, but I think that's the likely reality.

Helms, baby. About time, but he's finally become a presence on this team.

The hated Mets went down to defeat tonight in Houston, shut out by the Astros. Rodriguez, a hard luck pitcher, gets a 4 hit complete game shutout, winning 4-0.

SirAlden: Other than proving you're the biggest idiot on Beerleaguer, repeatedly, I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish.

Why would you set an arbitrary parameter of "free agent"? The list I gave were relievers who were "available." That's These are players who were either free agents or who changed teams in the offseason. That's what I've been talking about the entire time, numbskull. There's more than 30 of them.

You prove yourself an idiot twice over by saying Borowski sucks. He leads the AL in saves. He's 25 for 27 in save situations. Most of the runs that fouled up his secondary numbers came in 3 appearances. The other 32 appearances were clean or near clean. Honest to God, I'm embarrassed for you.

RSB: I'm not sure what the heck you're talking about. KK has good break on his curve and his slider/slurve (I'm still not sure what it is) and his K/BB ratio in the minors was just fine. He did have a losing record but that's largely because the Phillies have no quality position players in the minors. He certainly doesn't project as an ace but he does project as a decent #4 or #5 and he could be as a good as Jeff Suppan someday.

That long out by Holliday shows the importance of making the right pitches, which is what I like most about Kendrick. If that pitch is any higher, it's gone. By keeping it low he kept it in the park.

Also, Rowand took a nice rout to the ball, something the much faster Taveras hasn't done tonight.

bay_area_far -- you said, "Davthom must be weeping tears of joy after that play."

I just got back to the house after going out to dinner with my widfe -- what was the play you refer to? I see on MLB Gameday that Coste has a base hit and threw a baserunner out.

BAPO: With the exception of Duckworth, who really was a fluke, each one of those other pitchers hurt his arm. As did Pat Combs and Tyler Green, who would also fit nicely on your list.

fljerry: I agree with you 100%. It seems Madson this season has pitched much better in low-pressure situations than with the game on the line. He also hasn't done well in his second inning of work. He does very well in 1 inning of a game that 3 runs + or -.

Clout, were you projecting Kyle Kendrick as a potential Jeff Suppan five weeks ago? Was anyone? The jury is out. Let's see how he does the rest of the way, and then we may be able to evaluate more fairly. My take is that he's been performing well over his head, and it isn't likely to last. But I'm happy for him that he's doing so well; so far he's been a godsend and I hope I'm dead wrong.

KK now getting some respect from the Rockies feed.

RSB: Go back and read what I wrote BEFORE KK was recalled. I said he was the best choice for a recall. I also said I liked him quite a bit compared to the other pitchers in AA and AAA, that he projected as a back of the rotation starter.

What you can't project is how a kid will react when he gets to the bigs. Will he fold under pressure? Overthrow? Lose his composure? KK has passed that test. Because he doesn't throw hard, he relies on command to get people out and has little margin for error. But I've seen nothing so far to change my mind about him. I've been pretty outspoken about so-called top prospects that I think suck (Sanches, Segovia, Hernandez) so I'm not just being a homer here.

RSB I agree with ya - but to his credit so far (at least in this game) he has the pitch to get the outs. (even though the line drive out to Rollins and 400 fly ball could of been a disaster) nice strikeout though on probably their best hitter definitely was the right time for first KO

Everyone but the pitcher has gotten a hit tonight. Kendrick continues to suprise and amaze us pessimistic Beerleaguers as he goes into the 6th with a five run lead.

Smack that foot off the bag, Helms. Jesus H. Is he trying to tickle him or something?

I guess I spoke too soon - on getting the out he needed - time to take him out

Positively Lidle-esque. But it gets the job done...

If Burrell and Helms heat up in the second half, the team will have a real shot at a playoff spot if they can acquire one quality arm.

Considering how the Rocks have been lighting it up lately, this may be the kids most impressive performance so far. I have a feeling we're going to miss him very soon.

as pessimistic as I am - I sure hope Phils come back and get at least 2 more runs
I have no faith in bullpen

Justin "Cy Young" Germano's 86-88 mph fastball not getting it done tonight.

One reason the Phils are hanging in is that the offense has been far more consistent and effective for two straight months now. Last year there were a lot of dry spells and 12-run outbursts, but things have been much more steady. They don't get shut down and they are almost never blown out. Yet games like this are worrisome...piecing together nine outs in this ballpark with this bullpen is just not a comfortable prospect. Hell, in any ballpark.

Nice substitution Cholly.

I meant the LF. As far as the pitcher goes, its a crapshoot.

Oh God, please not Mesa. How can Cholly even remotely consider that idea?

Mesa in bullpen?????

'Crapshoot' having a nice double meaning in this case.

To the extent that Zagurski hs a future, it's as a LOOGY, so I can't get too excited when a righty power hitter takes him deep.

Again, I have to wonder why Manuel doesn't stay with Kendrick a little longer. Time after time he tries to get too much out of a wretched bullpen.

It's a pretty familiar pattern with Zagurski. Things don't go his way, and the ball comes to the plate harder and higher. Dubee should have been out to the mound a batter ago, after the Holliday homer.

Look at this line-up with Helms & Burrell gaining some life and Coste hitting behind them - actually a little scary.

Howard is showing signs of life and Chase I saw had 67 RBIs - pretty impressive.

As much as I hate to admit it I am on the bus again, dammit.

JB - you might be climbing right back off after this inning is over.

Key AB here. Zagurski has to get Hawpe (who has been horrible against LHP) this year.

I knew it!

Jose is just out there to strike fear in the hearts of the Rocks. Cholly has no intention of using him this weekend.

The weekend not including Friday, I guess.

That's exactly where Zagurski's future lies. Getting tough lefties out.

Good grief, here he comes.

Totally agree with Clout. Zagurski definitely has shown he can be a legit LOOGY and this team has desperately needed someone in that role all season.

Plus, you don't need to go out and sign an overrated guy like Mike Myers to just face lefties this offseason.

Remember, this is the bullpen Pat Gillick has given us.

MG/clout: only problem is that he also walked Helton. I don't trust Zagurski at this point. He can get lefties out if he's in the zone, but you never know where the ball is going.

RSB: I don't trust him at all with righties and you're right. His control tonight was awful. But I think he can make a living getting lefties out.

jo-se me-sa!
clap clap clapclapclap!

Runs, by god. We need runs.

we need runs badly

Is Mesa gonna pitch the 8th?

I had a feeling that Howard's latest punchout with a man on third was a bigger run than it appeared at the time. Contact, Ryan, contact.

3 speedsters coming up - like to see a bunt somewhere in there to get on base

That was one big bullet we just dodged. I hope Mesa doesn't come back out for the 8th. My heart can't take it.

I thought Zagurski actually throw some good pitches to Helton. Broke him in hard on his hands on every pitch except for one he left a little high over the plate.

Actually, give some credit for Helton for having a good guy and working a walk. Only a good veteran hitter does that.

I don't like the looks of this. The offense rips one of the better lefties in the league then goes silent against bozos like Herges & Martin.

It's like the old "Gauntlet" video game. "Phils need runs badly. Phils are about to die."

Did you see Bourn take the bunt sign from fljerry?

I fear that Jose Mesa has just pitched his way into an 8th inning setup role.

Ben: That would be madness.

I agree whole-heartedly, but would not be surprised to see it happen.

Clout its definitely madness

Is Alfonseca available? Anyone know?

For the ninth inning, I mean. I don't want to date him.

Although, its appears he will pitch himself right out of that spot in this inning.

Ben, would you mind coming in and pitching here? You couldn't do much worse.

I'm afraid this game will be in the loss column - can't believe hes keeping Mesa in

The only surprise is it didn't happen last inning. Cholly is still nuts.

Manuel is insane. Starters need to be on a pitch count of 140.

is Madson hurt?!

I would be glad too. Tommy Greene and I have been warming up.

That was one long Sac Fly.

Dear Jose Mesa,

Please die in a fire.

Thanks,

Everyone.

I can't believe that Manuel would take the guy who gave up the home run on his first pitch of Tuesday's game over the guy who pitched two scoreless innings

Chris: well, he is going up in flames.

Davthom: I'm responding belatedly, as I left for an hour. I was referring to the fact that Coste threw out Matt Holliday trying to steal 2nd.

Clout: Yes, I know there have been some valid injury reasons for the Phillies' various one-year wonders. And I must admit, I've been impressed with Kendrick so far. But, being a long-time Phillies fan, one does become conditioned to expect the worst.

I also can't help thinkng of Ryan Madson -- another one-year rookie wonder -- when I see Kyle Kendrick. They both had similar minor league numbers & they both rely primarily on a sinker. Madson is a much better strikeout pitcher than Kendrick but, at least based on early returns, Kendrick seems to have a much better head on his shoulders. We shall see. . .

Meanwhile, even as I type this, Kendrick's fine night's work is on the verge of being wasted thanks to another disastrous performance from Mesa. Remind me again what the hell this guy is doing on the team & why Cholly keeps using him in critical situations?

Anybody know what Ricky Bottalico and Mike Williams are doing these days? I'm beginning to think its time for their second returns to the Phils bullpen.

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