Game chat: Durbin deals whether we like it or not

Expectations are very low that tonight’s starter, J.D. 'Real Deal' Durbin, can deliver. If the Phils are to stay in the hunt, they'll need some surprises. Tonight counts as one opportunity. Game time is 10:10 p.m. ET.

Preview: Manager Charlie Manuel seemed a little surprised that Durbin (0-2, 13.50 ERA) had been penciled in for tonight’s game less than 24 hours after the right-hander managed to make a 13-2 blowout somewhat interesting. This will be his second start for the depleted Phils, who are still searching for a fifth starter. The Real Deal lasted 4 2/3 innings and surrendered six runs in his debut against the Mets. He’s been used in “miscellaneous relief” since then.

For the Dodgers, it’s left-hander Mark Hendrickson (3-4, 4.02 ERA), making his 11th start of the season. Hendrickson has bounced in and out of the rotation. He isn’t a good starter, so this game can be had, all things considered. 

Comments

[Verdeforce]

I didn't realize you had started a new thread - here's a re-post to get things started:

This would be a way to help the Phils catching and pitching - from today's delawarleonline "Trade rumor: The Yankees, still trying to decide if they're buyers or sellers, could make relievers Mike Myers and Luis Vizcaino available and may have interest in a veteran backup catcher like Rod Barajas. Myers and Vizcaino will be free agents after the season." Sounds good.

As well, on all of this trade Burrell talk, I think it would be better to keep him around the way the Phils did with Rowand, because I expect him to continue his hot July hitting for the next year and a half, because there is no greater motivator than that next contract - see Rowand's year. On the other hand, there is no reason to think Durbin will suddenly learn how to pitch at the major league level tonight from anything he's done so far. Please bring Myers back to the starting rotation when he returns!

[Ben Keeler]

Big game tonight. Be nice to stay above .500. There seemed to be a lot of optimism in the below thread for Durbin tonight. Lets hope so.

[Vail43]

The Philadelphia National League Baseball Team has become the designated garbage dump for MLB so don't deceive youselves into thinking that any substantive help will be incoming.

[EastFallowfield]

And in need of a second, third, and fourth starter as well...

[SirAlden]

Empty #1
Hamels #2
Empty #3 (Kendrick is good ATM)
Moyers #4 (with low pitch counts)
Eaton #5 (with a .500 W-L)

This is where we are now with the loss of Garcia, Myers, with Lieber really equaling Kendrick. We are going to be a .500 team or worse with Moyers pitch counts now high.

I really do think that Brett Myers took to closing, if you watched his face, and mtv ps2 brain wave pattern of youth, you would have to say - " wow with no real shut-down closers out there this winter that can be depended on, and lots of Dick Ruthven type starters Brett Myers shound be our bullpen ace".

However if we wish to win this year Brett Myers must be put in the rotation, and we must trade for a Corey Lidle type in someone like Lohse. If we do that and trade unloved but average as a #2 catcher Barajas for Myers, I really can see Pat Burrell's walk off homerun against the Mets this Sept taking us into the post season.

If Myers is put in the pen it will be because the GM is again engaging in delayed gratification which although arguably correct (creating Brett Myers as a top closer) will add to our deep systemic depression.

As I have argued continually, pitching now is just too rare in the market place, and dreaming to out bid the Yankees and Red Sox (whose ticket prices are double ours when you account for average cost of family or 4 at the Ball park), or any mid range team signing its Ace, and add in that noone in his right mind would want to risk his family's future revenue pitching in CBP (do you think we are going to be able to sign anyone for a full career - think Hamel's - think Cali boy - think Large and Super Large - Dodger and Padres Stadium - and California girls in Hollister short skirt and tank tops) the Phillies now have long term big pitching problems.

Realizing this, Gillick has correctly has mapped out a future that mirrors the Oakland A's our former Philly roomate in the American League. We need to continually develop pitching way the A's do with top draft picks.

Gillick has had 4 number 1 picks in the last 2 years while Wade had 1 in his last 3.

This will not help us this year, but it is the wise and only way to go.

[AWH]

"Realizing this, Gillick has correctly has mapped out a future that mirrors the Oakland A's our former Philly roomate in the American League. We need to continually develop pitching way the A's do with top draft picks.

Gillick has had 4 number 1 picks in the last 2 years while Wade had 1 in his last 3.

This will not help us this year, but it is the wise and only way to go."

Alden, I really don't like to engage in name calling, but I have come to the conclusion that you don't read anything that anyone else posts on this site. Either that or you are a moron. Maybe both.

What reason do you have to believe that this organization can develop pitching - enough of it to win. Gillick makes no difference in that area. None.

This organization's track record at developing pitching is horrible. I detailed their success ratio at the MLB level, RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LEAGUE, a couple of threads ago. Did you read it?

For your benefit (and I apologize everyone else for having to do this for this moron again), here it is:

"DURING THE GILES era, in 1988, 1989 and 1992 they were dead last in ERA and -RPG. Not coincidentally, they lost 96, 95 and 92 games those years.

Interestingly, during Dave Montgomery's vaunted 'golden age' the last 6 years, Phils pitching has finished in the bottom half of the league 5 of 6 years. The exeption is 2001, in the great days of Person, Daal and Coggin, when they finished 6th.

Obviously, this does not support the proposition that this organization does a good job drafting and developing pitchers, yet they continue to employ the same people year after year.

For the record, since the Giles era truly began, which I put at about 1987 (it takes about 5 years to truly put your mark on a team) this is where the Phils pitching has finished relative to the rest of the league. The first number is where they finished. The second is the number of teams:

1987 7/12
1988 LAST
1989 LAST
1990 9/12
1991 9/12
1992 LAST
1993 6/14
1994 4/14
1995 12/14
1996 13/14
1997 12/14
1998 14/16
1999 13/16
2000 11/16
2001 6/16
2002 9/16
2003 8/16
2004 13/16
2005 10/16
2006 11/16
2007 16/16 partial

In the last 21 seasons (including '07 partial), they have finished in the top half only 4 times. Is there a pattern here?

I believe the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. "

This team's pitching has been going backwards since 2001.

Go ahead, have believe in Monty and his loyal ass-clowns.

They haven't gotten it done in the past, and there is no reason other than blind faith for you to think they can - now or in the future.

You are either Pat Gillick's wife, lover, a relative or Pat Gillick. No one else could be that stupid.

[P O'Neil]

That Barajas deal has been talked about and I think the consensus is: see ya Barajas.

[AWH]

Oh, Alden, incidentally, when you look at the track record I posted keep in mind that CBP opened in 2004. You cann't blame it on the ballpark.

The track record stunk long before that.

And one more time:

They operate in the FIFTH LARGEST MARKET.

[Verdeforce]

So clout - are you agreeing with me that Burrell will continue to do well with the Victorino comment?

[ae]

using Victorino as the "replacement" for Burrell is moving the goalposts an awful lot. Victorino as a corner outfielder is one of the best defenders in the game; we were talking about a replacement level corner OF before.

besides, at the risk of pointing out the obvious, Victorino's already on the team. you still need to find another corner OF.

[MG]

Sir Alden: "Realizing this, Gillick has correctly has mapped out a future that mirrors the Oakland A's our former Philly roomate in the American League. We need to continually develop pitching way the A's do with top draft picks."

While comparing the A's organization to the Phils organization is just ridiculous for several reasons, the A's have been savvy in acquiring pitcher through alternative methods besides draft picks. Beane traded for Haren and Gaudin and has signed FA such as Embree and DiNardo who have pitched well for the A's this year.

On the other hand, Gillick hasn't acquired a single decent pitcher through a trade since his tenure and his FA pitcher acquisitions have generally been horrid. Only the waiver wire acquisition of Moyer last year and the signing of Alfonseca have been positive moves on the pitching side of the ledger.

Thanks to Gillick, the Phils have the "craptacular" trio of Eaton, Moyer, and Gordon signed to over $20 million alone next year.

[Verdeforce]

I'm sorry, I posted my response on the wrong page.

I really don't think they need to add anyone who isn't a pitcher, the issue is whether or not they can afford to give someone up in exchange for pitching and other than Barajas and Helms, I think too much would be given up by dealing any other fielder, unless a Dontrelle Willis was available.

Rowand is a possible exception to that since someone thinking they need him for the stretch run may be willing to give up young pitching talent in exchange. That would get Bourn into the starting lineup a few months earlier than expected and hopefully similar results to Victorino's promotion last year would ensue.

[J. Slocum]

MG - Gillick acquired Justine Germano but unfortunately valued a bunch of bums higher. Germano instead of JD Durbin and things might get interesting when Gordon and Myers are both in the pen. I still think, we have to just say what the heck and give Carrasco a start. Cream rises to the top and my gues is he might do better than allowing 5-6 runs in 5 innings.

[clout]

verdeforce: If you are saying that Burrell's OPS will be substantially higher than Victorino's at year's end, then, yes, I agree with you.

[Verdeforce]

As for the painful prospect of having Durbin start again tonight, I am remembering fondly the major league starts of Eude Brito - Durbin is only 4 years younger and no years better. Granted no one should start a lefty against the Dodgers, but if tonight's 6th appearance is as bad as 4 of the first 5 - I think it would be worth trying to pass Durbin through waivers and bring anyone in to take his place in the rotation and there is no reason to think anyone would claim Durbin - Condrey got no takers and he performed better.

[clout]

MG: Good post, but facts that counter SirAlden's absurd beliefs seem to have no impact on him.

[Verdeforce]

clout - we are on the same page

[kells]

My thoughts regarding Durbin's start tonight mimic what I was thinking as the best man at my best frineds's wedding a few weeks ago.
1)This is a HUGE mistake.
2)This will be over within a year or 4 innings
3)There are alot better candidates why did he pick her.

[MG]

Clout - Facts pale in comparison to draft picks though.

[clout]

MG: You mean those priceless #1 draft picks like C.J. Henry?

[ae]

I'm pretty sure he goes by Carl now.

[MG]

Still cautiously optimistic about Durbin tonight you will know by the 15th or 20th pitch tonight if Durbin has any control.

Ideally Durbin can give the Phils 5+ tonight and only give up 2-3 runs. My prediction:

5.2 innings, 7 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Not great but it will give the offense to score some runs against the medicore Hendrickson.

[joe]

mr. clutchly delivers.

[ae]

and because it never gets old, here's Henry's current line at Lakewood:

.169/.231/.337, 105 SO, 15 BB, 249 AB

[joe]

yeesh.... 8-1 BB/K ratio in Low A?

he aint gonna be in organized ball next year.

[Ben Rivera]

That would be a 1/8 BB/K ratio

[RSB]

Utley is having a season for the ages - every bit as historic as Howard's last year, simply one of the best offensive seasons in club history.

The only history Howard's making these days, meanwhile, is with his ungodly strikeout totals.

[joe]

ben - oops, stupid fat fingers.

[Alby]

A little update on the value of players at the trade deadline. Here are the transactions last year in the days leading up to July 31:

July 28, 2006

Washington Nationals traded Mike Stanton to San Francisco Giants in exchange for Shairon Martis.

Milwaukee Brewers traded Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz to Texas Rangers in exchange for Laynce Nix, Kevin Mench, Francisco Cordero and Julian Cordero.

Philadelphia Phillies traded David Bell to Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for
Wilfrido Laureano.

Los Angeles Dodgers traded Danys Baez, Willy Aybar and cash to Atlanta Braves in exchange for Wilson Betemit.

July 30, 2006

Colorado Rockies sold Miguel Ojeda to Texas Rangers.

Texas Rangers traded Bryan Corey to Boston Red Sox in exchange for Luis Mendoza.

Cleveland Indians traded Ron Belliard to St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Hector Luna.

Philadelphia Phillies traded Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle to New York Yankees in
exchange for C.J. Henry, Matt Smith, Jesus Sanchez and Carlos Monastrios.

July 31, 2006

Kansas City Royals traded Matt Stairs to Texas Rangers in exchange for Jose Diaz.

Pittsburgh Pirates traded Kip Wells to Texas Rangers in exchange for Jesse Chavez.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays traded Julio Lugo to Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza.

Atlanta Braves traded Jorge Sosa to St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Rich
Scalamandre.

Chicago Cubs traded Todd Walker to San Diego Padres in exchange for Jose Ceda.

Pittsburgh Pirates traded Sean Casey to Detroit Tigers in exchange for Brian Rogers.

New York Mets traded Xavier Nady to Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for Roberto
Hernandez and Oliver Perez.

New York Yankees traded Shawn Chacon to Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for Craig Wilson.

Philadelphia Phillies traded Rheal Cormier to Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Justin Germano.

Minnesota Twins traded Kyle Lohse to Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Zach Ward.

Chicago Cubs traded Greg Maddux to Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for Cesar Izturis.

Colorado Rockies traded Ryan Shealy and Scott Dohmann to Kansas City Royals in exchange for Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista.

So, those of you who believe trading Aaron Rowand would fetch us some good prospects, what do you see in the above lists that fuels your hopes?

[Steve Jeltz]

Seeing how Utley's been out of this world lately, I thought up a question maybe someone smarter than me might know the answer to.

Has any team had two different players win MVP in two consecutive years and not make the playoffs in either of those years?

[Ben Rivera]

Nice 3-0 lead for Durbin. Let's keep scoring anyway

[Verdeforce]

Victorino, Utley, Rowand, Burrell, and Helms delivered - 3-0 - now J.D. use your small cushion and stay ahead!

Listening to Scully's relentless monolgoue announcing style on the Dodger broadcast makes you realize he doesn't think people watch every broadcast, because he's already made the same comments about Shane and Helms and we're just in the first inning!

[RSB]

Big two-out runs here. Going to need every last one tonight with Durbin the Disturbin' on the mound.

[RSB]

Ha ha - speaking of windbag Scully, he just announced Chris "CAHST-EE". DavThom is blowing a gasket somewhere.

This guy is pure torture. He sounds like he's doing a radio broadcast, and he talks enough for four people. *Constantly*. He doesn't pause for a second.

[Josh M]

What rhymes with "frosty"? Definitely not "Coste". Someone tell that to the LA Dodgers play by play guy.

[Verdeforce]

The best deal on the list above was the Phils getting rid of Bell - I'm sure glad he's gone!

[bathtubhippo]

good to see that opponents are only hitting .400 against durbin.

[AWH]

He didn't just strike out Juan Pierre, did he?

[clout]

With a 3-run lead all Durbin has to do is throw strikes and let his fielders take over.

[Josh M]

Good to have the play-by-play guy spelling out the players' names for us.

[Josh M]

Clout: Who do you think we're playing... the Giants? That's probably the only team who could not come back from a 3-run deficit against Durbin.

[joe]

i think that Pierre was just surprised that durbin managed to get that many pitches over the plate.

[clout]

That's one inning down.

[ae]

Jeltz - never happened. Banks won MVPs in '58 and '59 despite the Cubs finishing 5th and below .500 each season, but that's the same person, of course.

[phila fan in dc]

I agree with Clout. Last night Moyer reminded us what happens when you walk players and get into a jam. JD needs to throw strikes and let is defense carry him. If he gives up a home run, keep it to a solo shot by not walking people. He can't try to out think these hitters, otherwise the Real Deal will be sitting on the bench fairly early tonight. First inning was a good example.

[phila fan in dc]

Durbin helping himself. Alright, Jimmy, let's get him moving along the path.

[phila fan in dc]

J Smooth?

[RSB]

Jeez, Hendrickson's making Durbin look competent. If he was still playing basketball, that HBP of Rollins would have been a personal foul.

[Steve Jeltz]

Thanks, ae. Another chance for the Phils to make (dubious) history.

[bathtubhippo]

can we manage to not score after having the bases loaded with our 3-4-5 coming up?

[Chris]

I'm listening to the Dodgers' broadcast via MLB.com's Gameday Audio. No one calls a better game than Vin Scully. Even as his team is getting hammered, he is awesome. And he's a solo act - doesn't need any color commentator, jokes, or anything. He's the real deal. Take a listen, those of you with XM or Gameday Audio.

[RSB]

...and the Phillies promptly let him off the hook. Howard continues to have a poor approach at the plate.

[bathtubhippo]

we did it!

[RSB]

Chris, how can you enjoy this guy. It's total excess. All he does is talk non-stop. I boggles my mind how he's even tolerable to anyone. Never heard a bigger egomaniac in my life.

[RSB]

Chris, how can you enjoy this guy. It's total excess. All he does is talk non-stop. I boggles my mind how he's even tolerable to anyone. Never heard a bigger egomaniac in my life.

[Josh M]

Chris, I think I heard Scully make a joke, and I think he prepared it ahead of time. He said "Howard is from the Show-Me State, and he certainly showed 'em last year".

[Jacobin]

Could have added to the NL league lead in runs scored, but instead we can just add some more to the league lead in men left on base. Who really expects a team to score at least one run when the bases are loaded and nobody is out?

[RSB]

Chris, how can you enjoy this guy. It's total excess. All he does is talk non-stop. I boggles my mind how he's even tolerable to anyone. Never heard a bigger egomaniac in my life.

[RSB]

Ack, sorry sorry

[kells]

FYI:Extra Innings package is free this week on Digital cable. Watching Mets/san Diego during commercials.

[Ben Rivera]

This outing really reminds me of those two extra inning relief appearances. So, I'm not expecting much in the third inning here.

[AWH]

Durbin has now gone through three innings - no runs. Chris Coste is the catcher calling the game. Coincidence? davethom???

[SJ-Mike]

Thanks Kells.

[kells]

Can Durbin play leftfield? 2-2

[EAC]

did something happen with durbin running home in the 2nd?

[Ben Rivera]

EAC, he was forced out on a bad throw by Loney. He may or may not have been safe had he slid.

[joe]

EAC -

apparently when getting gunned down at the plate, durbin looked at it and said - "oh, this is what i'm supposed to throw the ball over".

i give credit to coste. i think that he's a tremendous friend of the pitchers in the way he calls the game.

[Ben Rivera]

I am not opposed to starting Coste the rest of the year. Unfortunately, I do not make such decisions.

[RSB]

Hopefully this will be enough for Durbin...

[kells]

8-0 Phills-Thus giving a big F-U to Beerleauger critics like myself.

[AWH]

Maybe Dodger Stadium is a more comfortable place for Durbin to pitch? You think????

BTW, the Dodgers' catcher is Lieby, who was aften criticized in Philly for his handling of pitchers.

[RSB]

Gillick's waving two middle fingers from the press box and screaming "Kelllllllls!"

[Ben Rivera]

Oh yeah, I meant I didn't like the looks of the 4th inning. My bad.

[AWH]

Nice job by Durbin to get out of the inning.

Is anyone else who's watching on TV surprised at the level of audible booing at Dodger Stadium? My goodness, it's worse than Philly.

[MG]

Alby said on the previous thread,

"But wait -- those aren't the wildest dreams on this thread, this is: "If Durbin can just throw keep the walks down tonight to 1 or 2, I like the Phils' chances a lot." Yeah, and if pigs could fly, we could all get rich operating car washes."

I just saw two animals resembling Phils flying across the 101 on my way home and I am planning on becoming a multimillionaire by opening a franchise of car washes.

[MG]

Meant pigs but you get the drift. 8-0 . . . didn't see the Phils exploding for the many runs but this offense has really clicked all year long.

[Ben Rivera]

Interesting concept Mr. Howard...two K's then two bombs.

[kells]

Howard stroking a homerun to Left/Center. Great to see him going to the opposite field.

[joe]

this looks like a mirror image of last night.

nice to be on this side of a laugher.

[AWH]

Ryan Howard - 2 HRs of of LHP.

[Bridoc10]

What a shot!

This is more like it...obviously the way to make our two (quality) starter rotation stand up against the opposition.

[mm]

looks like he might get to 53 anyway...

[AWH]

Rivera, I'll take two Ks every games from him as long as they're accompanied by those two bombs.

[RSB]

Howard's approach has improved considerably since the third inning.

All or nothing for the Phils since the break...they've either scored at least 10 or allowed at least 10 in every game.

[Ben Rivera]

I really can't remember a stretch of games like this...two blowouts for us, two for the bad guys, one for us.

[Ben Rivera]

AWH, I too will take the all or nothing approach of Howard if it has a 50% success rate.

[MG]

Haven't seen Howard have this good a game against LHP all season. Hopefully it continues.

[Ben Rivera]

Anybody know Durbin's pitch count? They've gotta be thinking about leaving him in there as long as possible.

[AWH]

Durbin pitch count: 69-41.

[Bridoc10]

Don't look now, but Utley and Howard are soon to be 1-2 in the league in RBIs.

How impressive is that, considering the start Howard got off to this season?

[Ben Rivera]

I'd go for at least seven. Then Mesa time

[Ben Rivera]

Or Madson/Alfonseca...we'll see

[RSB]

Watching this team makes me feel like I've gone back in time to watch the 1930 Phillies. Most polarized split of excellent hitting and horrible pitching that I've ever witnessed, and it's becoming more pronounced as the season goes on.

[AWH]

RSB, they're first in RPG on both sides of the ledger.

[joe]

this would be a great game to check if Gordon has his Sea Legs back.

[kells]

81 pitches through 5. Keep him in until his arm falls off. Great effort so far by Durbin.

[MG]

Hopefully this game will quiet some of the recent grumblings about Howard and his strikeouts.

Yeah, Howard is a one-dimensional player. So is Pat Burrell. The difference is that Howard is a legit MVP candidate right now every year and is a once-in-a-generation player for the Phils.

[gr]

durbin's thrown 80 through 5.

[joe]

i think that the phillies have the best hitting rotation in the NL.

and i bet that's worth 3-5 games a year :-)

[J.R. King]

NL Batting Avg. Leaders

.3410 - Dmitri Young
.3388 - Chase Utley
.3383 - Chipper Jones