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Friday, July 27, 2007

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Lineups this evening (reposting from previous thread)

Phils
1. M Bourn, CF
2. S Victorino, RF
3. J Rollins, SS
4. R Howard, 1B
5. P Burrell, LF
6. G Dobbs, 3B
7. C Ruiz, C
8. A Nunez, 2B
9. J Moyer, P

Pirates
1. N McLouth, CF
2. F Sanchez, 2B
3. J Bay, LF
4. X Nady, RF
5. J Phelps, 1B
6. J Castillo, 3B
7. R Paulino, C
8. J Wilson, SS
9. J Van Benschoten, P

Bruce Chen was an Asian Philly. Cannot think of anyone else though.

Again, we gave up nothing because Williams screwed us with the Freddy Garcia deal

Good move by the Phils, would rather see him at 2nd then, Ichiro Jr aka Nunez!

I was skeptical of our chances to begin with, and obviously losing Chase was a big blow to them, so it's not like we have much hope anyway... but either way, I am SOOOOOOOOO happy I don't have to watch and root for No-Hit on a daily basis. Nothing more depressing than having him struggle to hit it farther than the pitcher's mound. Iguchi is the perfect stop-gap guy to grab. And the fact that he's Japanese is fun too.
See Clout, Pat Gillick IS a genius. (but seriously, who said he was in his element with these waiver wire quality trades? they were right)
And I'm rambling at this point, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that this was a make up trade for Garcia. Not that Kenny Williams feels any responsibility to have everything even out, but I could certainly see him having a few similar offers for Iguchi and throwing Gillick a bone.

One wonders what other considerations/understandings underlie this "deal."

I will give Gillick this: he is the king of slightly-better-than-lateral moves.

in all seriousness, this is a pretty damn good trade. the move to the NL and CBP can only help his stats. and Iguchi originally played short in Japan; I would have to believe that he can play third if he hits here.

one note about Iguchi: the Phils cannot receive compensation picks next year for him if we don't resign him. he has a clause in his contract that his team must sign him to an extension after the 2007 season or release him.

All good things.

So to continue on the trade front. If Noah Lowry were to become somewhat available, what should we offer for him? Would Victorino be enough? (doubt it) So if noy, what pitching prospect should we include? Would people be willing to go as high as Carrasco?

ae, Iguchi only has 3 years of ML service. He would not be a free agent if not for his "out clause."

I wouldn't part with Carrasco for anybody, to be honest. Even with his growing pains in double-A, he's still the best pitching prospect we've got.

Good luck in the three-hole, Jimmy.

I hope Joe Thurston didn't unpack his bags. Looks like he'll be headed back to Canada. Maybe the White Sox were feeling bad for dumping a $10-million broken arm on us. In any event, I like the move. And even though I know next to nothing about Iguchi, I already like him much more than Nunez.

According to Radano, "If Rowand had been healthy, Victorino would have led off, Dobbs would have hit second and Rollins third with Howard, Rowand and Burrell to follow."

I don't like Rollins hitting third. Every time he batted in that spot before he would go for the fences.

I would've left him at leadoff and just bumped everybody else up a notch.

Of course that was assuming that Rowand was ok.

I think that Howard batting thrid is not a bad idea, may get him an extra AB or two.

I also like this Iguchi move, absolute upgrade over Nunez.

Maybe there's hope after all.

Billy Mac - hey! that's the lineup I posted a few threads ago. clearly, this means i am a genius. or it means manuel and i think alike and i should go get my head checked.

Bruce Chen was the first asian who played for the phillies.

I like Rollins leading off... but in light of the Rowand injury, this lineup actually made the most sense. Dobbs is starting because we're facing a righty. I sure hope he finds that magic he showed at the beginning of the year... we need it.

Billy Mac - I realize that. but it's an important distinction between Iguchi as a free agent and, say, Rowand as a free agent.

It's hard to call a guy born in Panama City, Panama "Asian" so I think it's best to say Bruce Chen was Central American.

The guy won a series, had a really good year that year as well. Can't think of a better (realistic) short term replacement honestly. Maybe he just missed Aaron Rowand and now they can have happy super fun time again and win the big trophy.

Chen was from Panama, so Iguchi is the first Asian Philly.

Just to inject some reality here, Myers coming back won't nearly make up for the downgrade from Utley to Iguchi. We really need to add a starter if we don't want to fall out of the race in the next four weeks.

@Trey, I don't think anybody was saying that. There has been praise for the move and sighs of relief but only in light of how bad it all seemed last night. Last night there was 0 hope, now the glass is half full.

Chen is ethnically Chinese, born in Panama. Would you call Steve Jeltz a Frenchman ?

"If Rowand had been healthy, Victorino would have led off, Dobbs would have hit second and Rollins third with Howard, Rowand and Burrell to follow."

That is the lineup I would have predicted.

Tray: I doubt anyone believes Myers makes up for the downgrade. What everyone knows is that Iguchi is an immediate upgrade over Chase and costs us nothing. I doubt that "prospect" we dealt even would have been included in any trades for pitching help.

I personally would prefer another bullpen arm because I'm not sure the options on the market present a clear upgrade over Kendrick/Durbin. It'd be nice to find one, but that's Gillicks job, I guess.

er... Iguchi is an immediate upgrade over Nunez... not Chase lol

BM: Chen pitched for Panama in the WBC. That was my deciding factor.

I'm very happy we got Iguchi, though someone who could play third when Utley got back, like Wigginton or Loretta, would have been better. I'm just saying we still need some pitching. I'm not sure we need a reliever though, Alfonseca, Gordon and Myers is pretty solid, and then you have Romero and Madson. The bigger need certainly appears to be the rotation, everyone besides Hamels and Kendrick has an ERA of 5 or more, and Kendrick's getting there.

A couple of observations before I go to bed (11.30pm here) . . .

1) a pretty fast top of the order

2) Is this the first time the catcher has hit ahead of Nunez when Nunez has started?

Goodnight, looking forward to your comments in the morning

Brian: That was I who wrote that about Gillick. He clearly does his best work when he's dealing in the realm of veteran role players, for whom he doesn't have to give anything up.

I can't believe SirAlden hasn't shown up praising Gillick. This is actually a move that's nearly impossible to criticize.

Doesn't make up for negligence on our bullpen this season... but a necessary move if the Phils were to maintain even the slimmest of playoff hopes. With Tag in the house, I think the Phils should continue to pursue pitching help (without dealing Bourn, Victorino or Carrasco).

i guess this puts the phils solidly in the "buyers" camp.

This trade came out of nowhere and is a pleasant surprise. Iguchi should be solid.

As for Chen - he's an Asian-Panamanian. But as JW said, Iguchi is the first Asian-*born* player to play for Philly.

Jobbers good observation. This is only the second time a starting Nunez has hit behind the catcher. The other time was April 9th against the Mets when Ruiz hit 6th and Rowand 7th.

ChiSox boards aren't real happy about the trade. Seems numerous teams had put feelers out about Iguchi but they ended up getting a non-prospect for him.

Incidentally... they call him Gooch. That means we have Gooch and Chooch on the same team.

Great job by Gillick at once again getting something for nothing - my only question is can Iguchi play 3rd when Utley comes back?. My wife is a huge White Sox fan and she doesn't understand what Williams is doing - first he traded for Floyd - even if Garcia was near the end of his usefulness - she knew from listening to me that no one would want Floyd even for nothing. Iguchi was one of the few guys who still delivered in the games we watched this year. Great job - now get a pitcher!

Reading a Mets board... seems their fans are a little upset the Phils moved so quickly to fill the hole (as best we could) but the Mets are still searching for someone to replace Valentin... especially since we gave up nothing for Iguchi. Although one guy writes, "the phils parted with an actually good prospect." Bwahahahahahahahah

My favorite White Sox fan comment, "Nice move Kenny ... if the Phils are willing to ditch the pitching coaches son, that's always a good sign. Why didn't we ask for the bat boy instead?"

By the way, I didn't see anyone else mention this yet, but the best part of this trade is that it looks like Rich Dubee's days are numbered as the conventional wisdom said his son was going to have to be traded if he was fired, now that problem has been eliminated - now Pat, finish off the job and rid the organization of this family entirely!

One last amusing thing from all the White Sox message boards... they can't figure out why Gillick keeps fleecing Williams... and they cite just about every trade INCLUDING the Garcia trade because Floyd sucks so bad.

Guess it's all about perspective.

Game chat stays here tonight.

Think about the day Sandoval must have had. Utley goes down- your big chance - you get cut.

It's pretty unbelievable what went on roster-wise today. They have two veteran minor league infielders on the 40-man in Garciaparra and Sandoval and needed to cut one in order to make room for Thurston.

What do they do tomorrow to make room for Iguchi? Probably designate Thurston. Imagine that. Utley goes down and TWO minor league infielders are left without assignments (although Thurston would probably accept and go back.)

I was really shocked but pleasantly surprised to hear the Phils were able to trade for Iguchi for nothing of significance.

If the Phils are going to make another move, I also agree with Weitzel that I wouldn't mind seeing the Phils get another arm for the bullpen. Probably a less steep asking price than for a starter and I just don't have much confidence in Condrey or Mesa.

My prediction:

Joe Kennedy becomes a Phillie... and it doesn't cost anyone on our current roster or Carrasco.

CJ - you really need to check your stats before you post - you keep saying that Dobbs is in a slump, but he is batting .323 over the last 30 days (.319 in July) - if that is a slump then keep slumping Dobbsy - we need you!

Weitzel - I'd rather get rid of Roberson than either Thurston or Garciaparra, but Gillick may try to trade a couple from the 40 man for a pitcher before Iguchi comes on board? We'll see.

Williams is clearly throwing Gillick a bone after the Garcia debacle.
Iguchi is a solid player-Chi Sox should have gotten a solid AA prospect.
Looking forward to seeing the Phills speed lineup create chaos.

Good move acquiring Iguchi. How about the Phils go after Carlos Silva from the Twins for the rotation and move one of the kids into the bullpen.

Kells: GREAT point. You're going in the header.

No takers for giving up Roberson instead of one of the infielders?

jw wrote: "What do they do tomorrow to make room for Iguchi? Release Garciaparra or Thurston? Imagine that. Utley goes down and TWO minor league infielders get cut! "

I am by no means an expert on transaction rules, but even if Thurston is removed from the 40 man roster and designated for assignment, it is not like anyone will claim him. I assume he will still take a minor league assignment at Ottawa. Same for Sandoval.

BM: You caught me scrambling to correct that post. Here's my rewrite:

Strange day on the 40-man roster front. Utley goes down, Sandoval gets cut to make room for his middle infield partner. Tomorrow, Thurston will probably be designated for assignment to make room for Iguchi. Although Thurston will probably accept the assignment, Utley's injury results in their two closest internal 2B options without assignments, at least temporarily.

BM: Sandoval was just released. He's not been having a good season at all, and went temporarily inactive for awhile if I remember reading that correctly.

Verdeforce: Check Dobbs stats as a starter at third base. They're terrible. Although he's already come through today, so that's good. It's not like I'm rooting against the guy, I hope he's amazing the rest of the year. It's just that Helms has been better at the plate when starting at third this year.

Nats up 3-0 on the Mets early. That's good.

Seems like the Iguchi trade gets the thumbs-up from the Beerleaguer crowd. I'll bet people would have liked it even more if we had traded Rich Dubee instead of Michael Dubee.

Great move by Gillick. You don't get to say that very often. It also helps the Phils bench depth once Utley is back. Iguchi will be a decent pinch hitter and add some nice depth.

This pitcher is horrible!

cj - The game is played on the field, not in the stat book. There is no possible way this team is better off with Helms at 3B. I can assure you our pitchers party everytime they look over there & see anyone other than Helms.

PtBB first pitch swing again. Keep that Red Bull coming.

PtB!

well, if we can play the pirates every day for the next three weeks, we'll be ok.

this should be this pitcher's last time in the bigs for a while. he's throwing batting practice up there.

Guys...Iguchi will be our third basemen once utley comes back. Problem solved, at least for 2007(only took more than half the season) Helms goes back to being what he always excelled at a quality PH option.

Defense- Iguchi has the edge over Helms
Offense- He's a contact hitter, rather have him in the lineup, we have the power, once utley comes back.

Welcome your new everyday 3b once Uts is back.

Bourn's message to Phillies: "trade me at your peril."

I agree with posters who say Iguchi is a make-up deal for the Garcia ripoff. It should also be noted (and excuse me if I missed a post on this) that Iguchi's contract calls for him to receive an extension this year or be released. At age 32, the Sox decided he wasn't worth an extension.

He's a .251 contact hitter at the moment... between him and Helms on offense, I'd say it's about a wash. Moises is back for the Mets, by the way. He could make a pretty big difference for them.

tray -

only if alou stays healthy. that isnt a given by any means.

Only one person has made an out this inning, the same one who left the bases loaded in the 1st..... No Hit Nunez - thak goodness Gooch arrives tomorrow

Can Iguchi actually play 3B?

Boy this offense seems flat out inspired in their first game without Utley.

My heart says they'll keep hitting like this till Utley comes back, but my brain says the Pirates pitching is awful.

Does anyone know if Gooch can even play 3rd? -- he's never played anywhere besides 2nd in his entire White Sox career.

In an unrelated matter, Michael Bourne is on fiiiire!...now hitting .296. I'm starting to think a 2008 outfield of Vic, Bourne and Burrell wouldn't be the disaster I once feared.

curt: right on. Bourn is ready, works the count, supposedly works really hard, great defensive guy. He can only be traded for someone under contract for a while or someone good, probably part of a package for a Garland, D-Train, Gagne, etc. Problem is we really don't have the rest of the package to get one of those guys.

I mean Bourn...got confused with the movies.

Before we all get too carried away with the Pat Gillick lovefest, let's realize that it doesn't take all that much wizardry to pry a veteran role player away from a non-contending team. Like the Moyer & Conine trades, today's trade was more like a professional courtesy than a real trade. The WhiteSox are out of it & a guy like Taguchi is useless to them & has no trade value. So they basically just decided to give him to the Phillies as a favor -- perhaps with an implicit understanding that, if the situations are ever reversed, the Phillies would do the same for the WhiteSox.

In an earlier post, I said that Gillick specializes in these role-player types of trades. I imagine that has something to do with the fact that he probably has quite a few friends in the industry -- guys who are willing to give him a player here & there, as nothing more than a professional favor. But, when he actually has to make a genuine, arms-length trade of value for value, his results have not been nearly so good.

Of course, Moyer chooses the day we're up 8-0 in the 3rd to deliver this sort of gem.

But you know, maybe the team will respond to the loss of Utley the same way they responded to the loss of Abreu last year. I'm not one of those who thinks the Abreu trade was a good one, but I do buy the argument that it wound up having a positive effect on the Phils' play. All of those poor pitching performances and mental gaffes--maybe they go away (or diminish in frequency) now that everybody feels some increased pressure.

CJ:

Regarding your earlier posts regarding Dobbs' numbers as a 3B vs. his overall numbers. Maybe it's just me but I don't see the relevance. I mean he's hitting .296 at the moment does it matter if it's .400 as an OF and .200 as a 3B? More importantly, do you think he's even aware of this and is somehow more confident as a hitter when he's playing in the OF?

Like I said, maybe it's just something I'm not getting. But I played multiple positions in H.S. and I honestly have no idea if I was a better hitter as a 2B vs. when I played SS. I'm not saying it's the same thing, but it just seems to me like the difference in his output is nothing more than a coincidence. Do you think there is something more to it?

BTW, Bourn is 4-for-4.

Sarge: "Phillies stick together win, lose or draw."

Good point. All those draws can really tear a baseball team apart.

CJ: the nice thing is Kennedy can come out of the Pen, his best year was not as a starter. He gives some depth and shouldn't cost as much.

As for the trade today, I wonder if the deal is we take Contreras after the deadline...

contreras after the deadline? i'd take that in a heartbeat, no matter how bad he's pitching.

Hopefully some scouts are seeing Bourn's efforts tonight.

Taguchi played SS in Japan but that was 4 years ago and I have no clue whether he has the arm strength for 3B. Obviously, the Phillies will want to find the answer to that question before they decide on granting him an extension. I also don't know if he has any interest in playing 3B. He's a pretty good fielder at 2B and can easily get a job with another team at that position.

Bourn, Carrasco, Outman and Ruiz for Santana from the Twins

What's the delay? Rain?

"contreras after the deadline? i'd take that in a heartbeat, no matter how bad he's pitching."

What if he's pitching worse than the 5 guys we have in the rotation now? The key is probably Durbin's next outing -- if he pitches his 3rd stright quality start, do we rush to replace him with a re-tread who's having a lousy year? Hamels, a resurgent Moyer and Kendrick aren't going anywhere -- the guy I'd love to replace is Eaton, but that ain't happening.

If they do trade, better for a bullpen guy. If they do that, and if Gordon is OK -- big if, I know -- and so is Myers, they either a) have a good bullpen, all of a sudden or b) in the case of an emergency in the rotation, move Myers back.

And whatever they do, trading Bourn would be nuts right now unless it's for someone like Dontrelle Willis, which it won't be. The guy's batting .303 and our current center field is probably leaving town in '08. And what if Rowand or Burrell gets injured in '07, as both are prone to do.

attywood:

Rowand already got hurt. Playing tag with kids. Am I the only one who immediately picture him crashing face first into someone's picket fence?

LOL -- maybe he has a W.B. Mason sign in his backyard.

I knew Rowand was hurt but I think it's "day to day" -- I mean hurt like his two stretches on the DL last year.

Does anyone wonder how a professional athlete gets hurt playing tag with the kids? More likely something hinky with the Mrs.

I'm just wondering if they re-sign him will they insist on a clause prohibiting from participating in dangerous activities such as playing tag?

eaton, is not going to be replaced. as much as he frustrates every one of us, he somehow, someway, manages to win a lot of games he starts.

i would take contreras, if the price isn't horrible. drop mesa? or condrey? for him. just get him contributing, and ready in case we need another starter.

The game's been called, so chalk up a won for the Phils. And a complete game (of sorts) for Moyer; glad the pen got the night off. Only four down to the Mets now, who lost tonight to the Nats, and possibly tied with the Braves, who are currently down 6-0 in the fourth to the Dbacks.

Ballgame. Put this one in the win column for the Fightin' Phils.

imagine blue bros. music playing...

a good game for the ol' bullpen!

Easy win tonight but the Pirates are a horrid team. Phils need to take at least 2 of 3 from them to keep pace.

It was good to see Burrell continue to hit well and pick up the slack tonight. The next 2 months are really Burrell's golden opportunity to prove a lot of doubters in Philly wrong and could go a long way to shaping how his career are going to be perceived.

Interestingly, our expected win-loss is the same as the Mets, better than the Braves, same as the Brewers, far better than the Diamondbacks, and a little worse than the Padres and Cubs. Of course, if you have a bad bullpen you tend to lose more 1-run games and underperform your expected record. For example, we're 6-16 in one-run games; the Mets are 14-5. But perhaps with the return of Myers and Gordon that'll change... one can only hope at any rate.

Over the last 19 games, Burrell is 25 for 54 at the plate (a .463 clip). He has 5 home runs and 20 RBI over that period. I don't know what has happened to make a guy flirting with .200 just prior to the break go on a tear like this, but keep it up!

Tray- which expected win-loss are you referring to? Baseball Prospectus has our projected wins at 84, behind the Mets at 93 and the Braves at 85.8. I'm not challenging your numbers, I'm curious as to which you follow.

In defense of Rowand's injury. I played Flash-Tag w/my niece & nephew last weekend at the shore. I woke up w/ a sore back-but I also drank 8 Budweisers-not sure if that helped contribute to the injury.
Bourne & Burrell stepped it up tonight. I wouldn't trade Bourne. I would rather the Phills keep his cheap salary & put Rowand's salary towards 3B & pitching.

Oh, I just looked at the expected standings over on mlb.com, it's just the usual pythagorean formula, I believe. Run differentials. And 93 seems awfully bullish, don't you think?

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