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Tuesday, July 10, 2007

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Depending on the young arms needed to get them, I would make that deal.

I would most definitely NOT include Carrasco, Drabek or Savery in it, however.

Posted too fast...I would trade Bourn OR Ruiz + pitching, but not both.

I'm surprised people seem so willing to trade Ruiz. If that happened, I assume Coste will get the lion's share this year, with Barajas being backup. Next year? Another hole to fill.

You have to give in order to receive. That's the only reason. I love Ruiz, I've been a fan of his since the minor leagues.

I think the question to be asked is - are the Phillies buyers or sellers at this point? Personally, I would not make the trade. Bourn and Ruiz along with Utley, Howard, Myers, and Hamels form the nucleus of a team that could be very good in the years to come. Everybody else (including J-Roll) should be considered as a tradable commodity. Let's get some younger players and build a champion. It may take a couple of years, but it will be worth it in the end.

I wouldn't trade Ruiz or Bourn for both those clowns, much less one of them.

Weathers is okay, but he's exactly the sort of guy who would blow up during three months in Philly. (Have we ever gotten a rent-a-reliever who didn't turn into garbage as soon as he pulled on the red pinstripes?) That said, I see he was a late-'80s Blue Jays draft choice, which probably means the clubbies should start making space for him now...

As for Lohse, he shouldn't cost much, which is something. And he'd be better than Durbin/Happ/whoever as the fifth starter. But he's no savior.

If Gillick can get one or both for, say, Matt Maloney, Jesus Merchan and Dan Brauer, fine. But absolutely not Ruiz or Bourn.

Iron Pig, I usually agree with you, but I don't see the wisdom of trading Rollins, no matter what you might get back. Who plays shortstop?

I'm with you dajafi. Weathers will help this team and Lohse is better than the Durbin/Happ spot, but overall, he's not impressive. I completely agree we have to give to receive, but when what we're receiving is spotty, i'm iffy. Perhaps i'm overrated Ruiz, but he's a nice, youngish fit for this team. D'Arnaud if ever, is a few years away.

Iron Pig:

Are you crazy? Trade Jimmy Rollins? He's the exact same age as Utley and only a year older than Howard... but we need to trade him to get "younger" and build a championship?

Who are you people!?!?!?

As far as best games are considered, I have to put a vote in for a game I attended, May 12 against the Cubs. Garcia pitches well (for once), but Launchpad Geary opens the floodgates in what looked to be another "oh no not again" game, and worse, in the pouring rain.

But led by Dobbs (4-for-4), the Phils answer a Cubs 6-run 7th with a 6-run 7th of their own. Myers closes the door easily for the 11-7 win.

yeah trade Rollins for Lohse and Weathers? talk about getting pennies on the dollar. then who plays SS? I swear some people are just clueless. Some people are really over valuing Lohse and Weathers around here, these guys aren't saviors I'd trade a package of middle of the road prospects for them, Bourn and Ruiz stay. Catching is hard to come by right now and trading Ruiz even though yeah he isn't Johnny Bench would be foolish and short sighted.

Perhaps they could put Barajas in the deal and sweeten with Bourn, Happ, and Lou Marson.

One guy who could probably bring the biggest return would be Victorino but I would not want to trade him, even if we would sign Rowand.

Here is a first-half comparison of Victorino and Beltran and anyone given the choice between the two straight up would obviously chose Beltran.

But in looking at numbers for the first half they are very similar (I also threw Rowand's stats in there since he got an ALL-STAR invitation for more comparison):

VICTORINO: 88(G) 336(AB) 55(R) 93(H) 16(2B)
11(HR) 37(RBI) 30(BB) 52(K) 27(SB) .277(AVE) .774(OPS)

BELTRAN: 84(G) 329(AB) 49(R) 87(H) 18(2B)
16(HR) 55(RBI) 39(BB) 60(K) 13(SB) .264(AVE) .817(OPS)

ROWAND: 88(G) 316(AB) 52(R) 98(H) 20(2B)
11(HR) 43(RBI) 29(BB) 53(K) 5(SB) .310(AVE) .863(OPS)

Considering this is his first full season of playing everyday I believe he will only get better as evidenced by his significant improvement in stealing bases from last year (thanks Davey Lopes).

He is a guy I am starting to enjoy watching play, especially seeing him field a ball and come up firing with very little effort.

Vic still needs some polishing but should be considered a top 15 NL outfielder at this point and worthy of a top 10 next year if he continues to showcase more power IMO.

Kyle Lohse is exactly the kind of garbage I fully expect Gillick will trade for. He doesn't strike anyone out & opposing hitters have batted at least .280 against him 5 years in a row. Sure, he's better than J.D. Durbin (anyone is), but he is a No. 5 starter through & through -- and the Phillies already have 3 of those in their starting rotation (if you consider Eaton good enough to be a No. 5 starter).

I do like Weathers but he's going to turn 38 soon. The addition of Lohse & Weathers would not appreciably increase the Phillies' slim chances of overcoming a 4.5 game deficit against a team that has the means & desire to add a front-line starting pitcher within the next 20 days.

No way would I give up Ruiz to get these guys. Trading a promising 28-year old catcher for a 37-year old reliever & a fungible No. 5 starter is just directionally wrong.

What about Shane Victorino bobble-doll night?

Of the trade ideas that are regularly circulated on the Beerleaguer message boards, the idea of trading Rollins is the single zaniest one. Who exactly would play shortstop? Abraham Nunez?

Rollins is, at worst, the second best SS in the National League and one of the top 3 or 4 in all of baseball. He plays every game, gets 190 hits a year, hits for power, scores runs, plays sound defense, steals bases. He also stands a very good chance of finishing his career wtih 3,000 hits & 500 stolen bases. Dare I say it: he is on a Hall of Fame career path and, if he continues at this pace for another 7 or 8 years, he will ultimately go down as one of the top 5 or 10 shortstops of all time.

The people on this board who don't like Jimmy Rollins must be the same guys who used to boo Mike Schmidt.

Ugh. I wouldn't mind Lohse but I can't imagine relying on Weathers for anything. I'd be disappointed if they traded Ruiz. I can't even begin to explain the depths of despair my soul would sink to if they traded Victorino for that.

I wouldn't mind trading anyone on the team for other good players. In that sense, there's few untouchables. Utley, Hamels.. I think that's it. If Dontrelle Willis was available, I'd think about including Rollins.. and I love Rollins! You have to give something up to get something though.

Not that Willis is available, or they should do the deal. Just making an example.

Hold on, i don't think Iron Pig was advocating a trade of Rollins for Lohse and Weathers. He was just saying Rollins shouldn't be considered untouchable.

I don't have a problem with acquiring Lohse per se, only with giving up anything of value. What's his contract look like? If the Reds need a catcher, they might take Barajas as part of a salary dump of Lohse. I can't imagine the bidding for him will be very high.

Weathers is another story entirely. He's actually a valuable commodity, but I'm not sure he'd want to pull up stakes just a few months after signing there as a free agent.

BAP - great point on Rollins, we take him for granted but he is the one guy that is truly irreplaceable.

I feel like Willis is a good pitcher, but is overrated. Maybe he's just a great player on a bad team, which hurts his numbers, but except for that one year, i'm not overwhelmed by him. I don't think I would trade Rollins for him anyway.

CJ, Iron Pig ain't that crazy. Although I'm not a big fan of trading J-Roll, he has far more wear and tear in his 7th full major league season compared to Utley's 3rd and Howard 2nd. This also means that J-Roll costs a lot on the payroll. They just locked up Utley and Howard's contract is coming down the pipe, so losing the 7-8.5 mil of Jimmy's contract would be something the suits would look at. I think the bigger problem w/ trading Rollins is replacing him. We have no minor leaguers I'm aware of that are anywhere near stepping up.

Michael:

I am not talking about trading Rollins for Lohse and Weathers.

I am talking about trading Rollins to a team with some good prospects and depth in their farm system. As JW stated above - you have to give something to get something. There is not a whole lot out there for the Phillies to give - not that other teams would want anyway.

CJ:

Yes, I very well may be crazy. But some of those head scratching (things that make go...hmmm) kind of moves actually work out.

Malcom, that Cubs game in the rain that Saturday was a tough one to leave out. I imagine if I had been there I would have included it.

I wouldnt trade for Weathers - the only thing I think about him is the homerun he gave up to David Bell in Sept 05 that capped off that Phillies 9th inning comeback and kept them breathing.

I certainly wouldn't trade Rollins for Willis. The long-range trend Willis has shown is too much like Barry Zito's -- a slow but steady decline. He's also been used hard. Rollins, meanwhile, is showing no sign of decline at the plate or in the field, and I wouldn't expect signs for another three or four years.

So, Iron Pig, you're talking about rebuilding, or at least retooling. Forget it. The Phillies are getting tremendous value at shortstop -- replacing his production would cost you $12M a year on the free agent market -- and can't afford, from a ticket-sales standpoint, to appear to be folding their hand. Plus, of course, the lack of a replacement.

In most regards, the far better trade bait would be Howard.

I was just trying to make a point about how trading anybody is fine, as long as you get value back. Willis/Rollins was the first example I thought of, though maybe it wasn't the best example.

THe Marlins have Hanley Ramirez!! Why would they ever trade Willis for an older more expensive short stop? It makes no sense.

Rollins has such a high motor, he can be a productive shortstop for another 10 years, and I'd like to see all of them be in Philadelphia. In order to trade players like Rollins, Utley and Howard, who are all in their prime, you better have a sure-fire backup plan. They don't. Not even close. It would be easier and better to trade what's around them, and for once, get these players into a post-season.

Is it safe to call J-Roll's contract extension the best move of the Ed Wade era? I would give him more credit for that than Abreu, who fell into their laps for Stocker. No-brainer.

I wouldn't even consider trading Rollins, but your ranking of him is ridiculous, BAP. he's not "at worst" the second best NL shortstop - Reyes and Ramirez are pretty clearly better. suggesting that he's got a "very good chance" at getting 3,000 hits is crazy. (he's never even hit .300 - every player with 3,000 hits has done that at least once.) suggesting that he's on an HOF track is also crazy. (only once has he posted an OPS+ over 105, and that's this year.) talking about him as one of the 5 best shortstops in history is mind-boggling.

and this has nothing to do with "booing" Rollins. it has to do with perceiving reality. when the open the Hall of the Very Good, I'll be the first guy pushing for Rollins' admission.

as far as Lohse's contract, he's making $4.2M in his third arb year. he's an FA next year.

Jason--you're absolutely right about Wade's extension for Rollins. Right now, that deal looks so good that one can almost forgive some of the bad contracts.

Short of someone like Miguel Cabrera coming up, I don't see how the Phillies could possibly trade Jimmy. I've started working on a piece for TGP looking at Rollins' Hall of Fame possibilities; though I wouldn't start shining up the bust just yet, he's on pace to have a decent shot at Cooperstown. You don't move a guy like that, signed to a good contract at age 28, short of something mind-blowing coming back in return--a younger, cheaper superstar.

Ae: On Hanley Ramirez, he has been in the league for 1 1/2 seasons. Let's see him put together 5 or 6 good seasons in succession & then talk to me about whether or not he's better than Rollins.

As for your point that it's "crazy" to think he has a good chance at 3,000 hits & the HOF -- well, you are just wrong. Rollins has more than 1,200 hits & is only 28. Craig Biggio, who just got his 3,000 hit, didn't get his 1,200th hit until he was 31. Rafael Palmeiro, who was the second most recent player to get 3,000 hits, didn't get his 1,200th hit until he was 30. If Rollins continues at his normal pace, he will not only get 3,000 hits; he could very well get 3,500. And, if he gets to 3,000 hits, yes, he is a lock for the Hall of Fame.

The fact that he has never hit .300 is neither here nor there. First of all, where does it say that you have to hit 300 to amass 3,000 hits? Second, Rollins is going to be in the league another 10 or 12 years, minimum. I'd say the odds that he's going to go through his entire career without hitting .300 are slim and none.

Finally, why can't anyone ever say something on Beerleaguer without some other poster spinning the statement into something it isn't? I did NOT say I would rate Rollins as one of the top 5 or 10 shortstops of all time right now.
I said that, "if he continues at this pace for another 7 or 8 years, he will ultimately go down as one of the top 5 or 10 shortstops of all time." This is fact. If he continues at his pace for another 7 or 8 years, he will end up posting overall career numbers that rival some of the best shortstops ever.

The only benefit of trading for Lohse is to eat innings. He's averaging 6-1/3 IP per start, so I guess he keeps his teams in games. I wouldn't expect him to improve while he's here - not with Dubee as the pitching coach.

I would not trade Ruiz. It makes no sense long-term. While they need pitching desperately, Chooch is a better player than Lohse, and worth more than an aging reliever. You don't trade starting position players for 2 month rental pitchers in the last year of their contracts, or 38 year old relievers. He's the 'future' at catcher for at least the next 2 years, possibly longer.

Would you really want to go into next season with Barajas as your catcher? I don't include Coste, because I have no faith in this team's ability to think out of the box and include him in their plans. (They probably think he's too old, but LoDuca, Ausmus, Varitek and Posada, among others, are all older.)

The only way I trade for Lohse and Weathers is if they give up middling prospects, similar to what the Yankees did in the Abreu/Lidle deal.

Barajas and Happ for Lohse may be a doable deal for the Phillies. Whether or not the Reds think so is another matter.. Trading J-Roll shouldn't even be a topic for discussion here because Iron Pig didn't really propose that in his original post. He isn't going anywhere, anyway. I have been "converted" into thinking that we need to keep Ruiz as a core player. I read a scouting report wher Dontrelle has lost some control over his fastball. Hence his ERA is way over 4.00. He may truly be on the downside.

I could be wrong, but Barajas' 2008 option is $5 million with a $500,000 buyout. The Reds would only take him if cash was involved. I can't imagine they'd want him.

Weathers wouldn't be a rental since he's signed through 2008. He could be the Phillies closer for 1 1/2 years.

Not sure why anyone would want Barajas after what he's shown this year. Maybe a playoff team who's C/Backup C goes down with injury and needs a backup in a trade for a marginal prospect, but that's about it.

Jason, with all due respect, I would like to have Weathers, but I would not give up Chooch (a starting catcher) for him, for the reasons I stated above. Also, Chooch is inexpensive and under the Phils' control for the next few years.

How many games have been won by the catcher position on this team?

And how many games have been LOST by the bullpen?

That's why I would trade Ruiz and a mid-level prospect for Weathers and Lohse...in a heartbeat.

P.S. Cooch for Lohse is insanity.

Now if we could get Harang...

I believe the debate comes down to this: It's not really about whether Ruiz & Happ for Weathers & Lohse is a good trade. It's about whether you're quitting on the season.

Some beerleaguers don't think the Phillies can win even with the addition of 1 or 2 more players. Other beerleaguers think the Mets are vulnerable enough that a couple arms COULD make a difference between winning the division or sitting home for the 14th year in a row.

The quitters will oppose any deal of young talent, as they should. The optimists know that smart teams realize that when you have a chance to make the playoffs you take it because that chance might not come again for 10 years. Prospects and injuries are unpredictable.

Tony LaRussa traded Dan Haren for Mark Mulder in 2004. In hindsight, a horrendous trade. But they don't make the playoffs in '04 without him. Never lose sight of this key fact: The Phillies have not been in the playoffs in 14 years.

Hi everyone,

I'm enjoying the Rollins discussion immensely, I just wish it was with less anger.

For awhile now, I've questioned some of the blind love sent his way. I'm not a stat guy, so stat guys out there, please ease up off me before you even start.

But I do question whether his solid numbers this year are padded by playing in that ridiculous bandbox in Philly.

He's not better than Ramirez, Reyes, Renteria or even Omar Vizquel, in my opinion. And I really don't see him getting 3,000 hits. I see him more of a Shawon Dunston type player -- good, really good, but not great.

In a word, I do think he's overrated, and I really think he talks too much.

Some good thoughts Clout.

Mulder was coming off of 4 good years in a row, one being a 21win season. If I could get a top of the line starter (under contract or someone they will sign), for say Carrasco, I'd do it.

Rollins doesn't talk too much. He's pretty much the only guy that gives this team some personality. Yes he said "we're the team to beat", but so what. When was the last time a Phillie ever stepped up?

Sounds like Met fan rhetoric.

JZ -- At least on my end of the Rollins discussion, there's no anger. Passion, yes. Strongly held opinions, yes. Anger, no. I save all my anger for the Phillies' management.

I'm going out on a limb here. there is essentially zero chance Rollins is going to end up with a better career than Honus Wagner, Luke Appling, Arky Vaughan, Derek Jeter, and Lou Boudreau (or whatever five shortstops you want to call the best). I can't see how you can make statements like "If he continues at his pace for another 7 or 8 years, he will end up posting overall career numbers that rival some of the best shortstops ever." that's simply not true. Rollins has a career 97 OPS+. 97!!! that's lower than Pee Wee Reese. lower than Dave Bancroft. lower than Travis Jackson and Joe Sewell. the only HOF shortstops Rollins beats out are Joe Tinker, Rabbit Maranville, Luis Aparicio, Phil Rizzuto, and Ozzie Smith (well, and John Montgomery Ward, but Ward also won 164 games as a pitcher and helped shatter the reserve clause).

BAP, do you understand what the phrase "exception to the rule" means? Biggio's made it to 3,000 hits because he's been phenomenally durable (Bonds is the only active player who's been in more games; no active player has more AB) and has held on well past his peak as a player. Palmeiro was also exceptionally durable - he's actually tied for Biggio in games played. so you pull out two guys who are known for having ridiculously long careers and think that proves something?

as far as this: "If Rollins continues at his normal pace, he will not only get 3,000 hits; he could very well get 3,500." well, that's just wrong. obviously there's no good way to predict what will happen in the future. but Bill James' "favorite toy" algorithm, which is reasonably effective in making ballpark predictions of the chances of players to meet certain statistical plateaus, pegs Rollins at about a 22% chance to get 3,000 hits. that's pretty decent, but clearly he's not a lock. as far as 3,500 hits - you're insane. Yaz played for 23 years, retired with a career AVG more than 10 points higher than Rollins', and didn't get 3,500 hits.

on hitting .300 - it's ironic that you complain about people "spinning statements" when you do the same. obviously there's no requirement for getting 3,000 hits. but for a player to reach that milestone, it means they were pretty damn good at making consistent contact and getting a lot of hits, which means odds are they hit .300 fairly often. and yes, Rollins could very well make it there before he retires. but he hasn't yet - that was my only point.

Ruiz? Substitute Jaramillo. Maloney? Substitute Happ.

and it goes without saying, but I am also not angry about anything. just like debating baseball, probably a little too much.

ae, wow. Guess you're a stat guru.

Mr. O'Neil, careful. I'm 32 years old. My earliest memory is Schmidt's four at Wrigley. I cried like a drunken bitch in college when Carter went deep.

I took great pride in Mo Vaughn failing miserably with the Mets. Rhetoric, nope. Just some pensive thought about #11.

Yes, he gives this team personality. But so does Chase. With his bat and glove. And Ryan, with his smile. Sometimes, you have to win first and talk later.

These days, I just see talk -- and it's grown tiresome. Last time? Schilling. And he backed it up.

And Bay Area, I dig the passion.

Can you imagine the parade of mediocre replacement shortstops that would haunt us for years after they traded Rollins?

We should all be able to imagine it, because it would look alot like the situation at third base since they traded Rolen.

Getting rid of Jimmy is just a stupid idea.

I would like to see them pick up Lohse on the cheap, and probably avoid Weathers (b/c it will cost too much). If Myers isn't coming back we're screwed anyway--might as well wait until next year if thats the case. But we do need that fifth starter.

Clout: Perhaps our differences are just a matter of semantics (and what we would characterize as "quitting"), but I also think there's a middle ground between quitting and going for broke. The middle ground is to strike a balance between the likelihood that a particular trade will actually help us get over the hump this year & the likeihood that this same trade will weaken the Phillies in the long-term. Of course, how you resolve this balance depends on the particular trade at issue & on what you think it would take to enable the Phillies to overcome their present 4.5 game deficit.

To me, it would take about 2 or 3 good relievers plus one decent starter to bring this kind of noticeable improvement to the team. Adding a reliever like Weathers would be one incremental step in the right direction but it's doubtful they're going to be able to make enough of those incremental steps to get over the playoff hump this year. Therefore, I can't really see the benefit of giving up a promising young player for an incremental improvement that, by itself, will still leave them short of what they need.

JZ,

Sorry man. Didn't mean to call out your Phils credentials.

Maybe it's b/c i'm in the DC area, but I don't hear Rollins running his mouth like some say. Rollins IS having a good year. Not sure what else he can do to get credit. You may, unintentially, be playing in the commenters' (whoever it was)point that Rollins doesn't get respect.

I only make a deal if I really think both Gordon and Myers can come back healthy this year and contribute by August 1.

Even if the Phils get Lohse as a 5th starter and Weathers in the pen, they still don't have the pitching they need to make a serious run. However, a bullpen with Myers as closer and Weathers/Gordon as set-up guys suddenly becomes respectable and gives Cholly some options.

I imagine that Weathers asking price will be higher than Lohse. Lohse is the definition of a mediocre veteran starter but the Phils need to have someone on the mound who gives them a chance to win. Durbin just doesn't do that. Phils should be able to pry lose Lohse for a marginal prospect like a Segovia and fringe guy from Low-A.

Weathers probably has a higher substantial asking price and will demand a major league ready talent (e.g., Bourn, Ruiz) and a decent prospect. Plus, I imagine the market for Weathers will be a lot more competitive. I could easily see the Reds getting a more competitive offer than the Phils can make too.

clout, good points, but IMO it's not about being an optimist or a quitter. It's about getting fair value in a trade, something at which this org has not been very adept (see, Abreu, Schilling, Rolen, etc.).

Lohse would be a decent pick-up - a 2 month rental - to eat some innings, but not for Ruiz and someone else. Weathers - I would love to have him - but not for Ruiz and someone else. IMO, those are very lopsided trades even today, and likely to look much worse in the future. They kind of mistake this org has consistently made in the past.

I am in the optimist camp. The Mets and Braves are both vulnerable, even if they add players. I just wouldn't trade a starting player at a premium postion for a guy like Lohse who, the last few years has been hanging onto the Bigs by his finger nails.

O'Neil brings up a good point - Mulder was a 1 or 2 in his prime.

Lohse is an expensive bottom of the rotation innings eater on a bad team. He and Weathers are salary dumps by the Reds. IMO, you don't give up a starting catcher and a decent prospect for either of them.

They would miss Chooch's glove and speed from the position, but there are a couple things to remember. He's not young. He's 28. And it pains me to say it, but he's not really hitting - .730 OPS.

Jaramillo is only in the equation as an emergency third catcher at this point, so the replacements would be Barajas and Coste. Is Jaramillo even a prospect anymore? Hard to say; his numbers don't instill much confidence.

The name I keep reading is Jesus Sanchez, who's the young catcher they got in the Abreu deal. Too early to tell on him, but the Phils seem to like him (big deal, right?).

The other thing that bothers me a little about Ruiz is he always seems to get hurt. He's got a knee thing right now, and this nagging shoulder problem.

I don't include Ruiz as part of a long-term future plan, but I definitely like how he plays. He's a fine defensive catcher.

BAP: If you are right, then the correct thing to do is quit on the season and sell some talent to see if we can pick up a prospect or two. Gillick did that last year and it turned out to be disastrous, partly because the team caught fire and could've made the playoffs if they hadn't traded a guy with a .900+ OPS and a pitcher who made 5 quality starts down the stretch, and partly because they got no quality prospects in return. So it was the worst of both worlds.

On the other hand, it would be equally bad to deal a couple of good young players like Ruiz & Happ and then fall a game or two short in the end. That's why management must do a through analysis of what the team needs and what it can afford to give up and whether they think Myers or Gordon can really contribute down the stretch. But time is running out.

J,

Careful...careful...you just said something involving "Abreu" and "deal"...

Ae: First of all, did I say Rollins was a "lock" to get 3,000 hits? I did not.

Second, a lot of the guys you mention on your best shortstops list are guys who played at the turn of the century against a diluted talent pool that did not include blacks, Latinos, Asians, etc. Their statistics are inherently dubious.

Third, you're right about Biggio & Palmeiro being very durable. But, last I checked, so is Rollins. How many players in baseball have played 154 or more games 6 years in a row, & going on 7?

Yaz is a good comparison. He got his 1,200th hit at the same age as Rollins &, though he didn't finish with 3,500 hits, he didn't miss by much. And, in today's age, guys tend to play at a top level for longer; Yaz was already in decline by his very early 30s.

Finally, you keep focusing on batting average as it correlates to number of hits. Actually, the best correlation to number of hits is, well, number of hits. Rollins has had more than 190 three years in a row & will likely get there again this year. He may not post the batting averages that Yaz posted in his prime, but he annually has 100 to 120 more ABs than Yaz had in a typical season. Those extra ABs lead to a lot of hits.

To further discredit the idea of Rollins making it into the top 10 shortstops all-time, a whole crop of current power-hitting shortstops will set a new Hall of Fame standard for the position before Rollins retires. Ae left Ripken off his list, but even his offensive numbers pale beside ARod (who will have spent almost half his career at SS, assuming he stays at 3B) and Miguel Tejada. Barry Larkin isn't a lock for the Hall of Fame, and Rollins is nowhere close to him offensively, at least not yet.

That said, a lot of guys who look great for a couple of years fall by the wayside. Nobody thinks of Nomar as a great shortstop -- or even a shortstop -- anymore. The biggest reason not to lose JRoll is that his newfound power seems not be an aberration anymore. It's no accident that he's posting the highest OPS+ figures of his career.

AWH: I'm with you on fair value, but you also need to look at it from the other side. If you're the Reds, do you deal Lohse & Weathers for just Happ or just Ruiz? I wouldn't. Maybe there is some other combination that would get it done and make both sides happy.

BAP: The argument against Jimmy playing into his 40s is his position. He hits well now for a shortstop; he'd have to hit better than this to play a position other than middle infielder. Ernie Banks had enough power to play 1B after about 1,200 games as a SS. Ripken played a little 3B at the end of his career. But most shortstops with long careers are there for their gloves. On that ground, Jimmy will play as long as his speed and range hold out. Whether that's likely is an interesting question; the Favorite Toy percentage seems about right.

Alby, You're right about the new breed of shortstops, but the longevity of these guys remains to be seen. Ok, top 5 or 10 may have been a bit of hyperbole. Top 10, however, is by no means out of the question. He could very easily end his career among the top 10 among shortstops in quite a few statistical categories.

Clout, good point. If I'm the Reds I ask for more than Happ even for Lohse alone.

the thing is Rollins isn't running his mouth, he made one comment in the beginning of the season and people treat it like he's the T.O. of baseball. this Lohse/Weathers for Ruiz/Happ or whoever deal is exactly the type of trade people on here champion until its made and then bash for the next 10 years after its done.

Mr. O'Neil, no apology necessary. I shouldn't have gotten all "Oh yeah, but my feelings are real!"

Michael, it's not just the "We're the team to beat" thing. I actually loved that statement at the time and was *really* looking forward to a 47-2 April.

The thing that bothered me the most was last year, right before Chase lost his hitting streak (against the Mets, I think, on Fox), Jimmy saw fit to talk about the streak for Chase, on national TV.

You have to know not to eff with superstition, no?

I don't know. I'm just happy there's a debate on Rollins worth in these parts. I'm certainly not advocating they (can we all stop with the we until ownership sells or turns its toes?) trade Rollins.

Good ballplayer.

BAP, it's certainly true that Rollins stacks up a lot more ABs by virtue of his leadoff spot and relatively low patience at the plate. if there's anyone in baseball who could be the first guy to get 3,000 hits without hitting .300, it's probably Rollins. but at the same time, those aspects of his game make it harder for him to stick around for the 10-15 seasons he'd need to get 3,000 hits. as he gets older, he'll get slower, and it'll be increasingly harder to keep up an already low (comparatively speaking - just in terms of guys who are considered "great hitters") batting average.

I just checked the career stats on Lohse, and he's a little better than my mental impression was. If you look only at his W-L record he seems to be on a steady decline since his 2nd and 3rd year in Minnesota. But he actually has posted very consistent ERA+ figures over his career, except for one terrible season (2004) and the first half last year, when he pitched, badly, out of the bullpen. Other than that he's always between 100-105, in other words, a split hair over league average. If we can get him for Happ and another pitching prospect, I'd do it.

Isn't he a flyball/HR pitcher? That was a knock at some point, but maybe just AL related?

Hofmann, unlike the idiot in the Inky, gets it:

"A fair reading of the starting rotation thus far would say that Cole Hamels has been very good and will continue to be very good; that Jamie Moyer has been good so far and might continue to be good (his ERA has risen in four of the last five seasons after the All-Star break); that Adam Eaton has developed into a fair-to-middling battler and should continue to battle; that Kendrick has been surprisingly strong, but could very well have some rough water ahead, given everything; and that we have no earthly idea who will start the rest of the games.

How that adds up to the post-season is a little tough to discern."

"A little tough to discern"...what a polite man.

oh ok, so thats what you consider "running his mouth". oh well ok, i don't really believe in superstitions so i didn't really care even though i know that is rampant in baseball. i think rollins brings a great energy to the team and unless the 2nd coming of jeter is behind him you don't trade him. (maybe thats a little exaggerated but unless someone as good if not better than rollins)

P - ESPN has him as slightly over 1 in GB/FB ratio on his career, although he's been considerably more of a flyball pitcher this year. don't know if that's the sign of bad things to come or just a fluke.

Alby - I noticed the same. Lohse could easily be the third best pitcher on this team, behind Hamels and whoever's hot during a given week.

Ah, I see it's another day when our marginal players and prospects are all solid gold -- way too good to be traded for established major league pitchers on other teams.

Not that I favor trades for guys like Weathers or Lohse, but we should be over the idea by now that we have any tradeable players higher than AA ball of much interest to anyone.

I'll say it again:

Trading Jimmy Rollins is a terrible, terrible, terrible idea. He is clearly one of the most productive shortstops in baseball offering not only good slugging for the position, but good speed and defense. There are few shortstops you'd take right now to replace him.

He's also a Phillie. Through and through. He gives his all for this team and he's never injured.

He's also only 28. People pretend the 7 years he's played have hurt his production, which is just plain wrong. His OPS+ this year is higher than it's ever been in his career.

Finally, there is no one. Absolutely no one in the system ready to take his spot and certainly no one that can replicate his production. And his salary is an absolute bargain for what he gives this team.

Can anyone offer one good reason we should trade him?

Hamels, Utley, Rollins and Howard are who this team will be built around.

Jimmy wants to play for a winner. I wouldn't be surprised by a trade demand one of these years soon. He's definitely paid his dues with this organization.

I suppose anything's possible, curt... but have you seen any indication at all that Jimmy's plans to demand a trade? Or is that just baed on a feeling of your own?

The only way that I could concieve of a Rollins trade would be for a big time starter, and there is no way that would happen mid season. That could be an offseason move, if you found a team with the right assests and needs.

The reason you do this is that you could pick up someone to replicate Rollins defense and then just take the offensive hit, which the Phils can afford to do.

Regardless of Rollins historical standing, he one of the best shortstops in the game right now. He is solid all around - hitting, defense, speed, behavior, and durability. Taking all these into account, there are very few shortstops I would take over Rollins, and it appears that his work ethic is the kind that breeds production in the later years of a career.

I'll restate this, mainly because I can't believe it didn't stir up any protests the first time -- the guy from CJ's core group who's most tradeable, that is, easiest to replace (as far as defensive position), lowest salary and perhaps market value, is Ryan Howard. Of course, it wouldn't happen because of the PR hit the team would take. But let's say he hits about 40 HR this year and the same amount next, and he continues to be nagged by injuries. That might make it more palatable to the fan base.

clout, we agree. I do look at it from the other side. If I'm the Reds - sellers - then I move them where I get the best deal. That doesn't mean you overpay, if you're the Phillies, just because some other team offered what I think is more valuable.

On the other hand, I'm likely to lose Lohse to free agency so there is some pressure on me. Is he an A or a B? What kind of pick will I get for him if I hold on to him? Those all factor in to the equation for me.

Weathers - I control him through '08. He's also real cheap in today's market based on what he's produced the last couple of years. If I'm selling, I know a lot of contending teams would want this guy, some with real good high level minor leaguers. The Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Tigers, etc. all would like to add a quality arm that can close to their pens. That's pretty attractive to me if I can get the right prospects in return.

It's what top players stuck on non-contenders tend to do around this point in their careers. And really what kind of a guy would be content to put up some numbers and cash a big check year after year?

I'm not sure that you can say that Jimmy's hitting as been affected greatly by playing at the Bank as compared to on the road or even at the Vet- though the number of extra base hits are higher at home than on the road. Below is Jimmy's home/away splits on hits, with number of extra base hits in brackets:

07 49 (22) Home, 62 (26) Away
06 95 (38) Home, 96 (41) Away
05 98 (32) Home, 98 (29) Away
04 98 (38) Home, 92 (31) Away
03 85 (31) Home, 80 (25) Away
02 73 (34) Home, 83 (20) Away

As for catching, Jaramillo isn't our catcher of the future and I agree with Jason that he's an emergency option at best. Cooch buys us a couple years to bridge something to Sanchez or whomever that future catcher is.

The problem with trading for Kyle Lohse is that, while it might marginally help the Phillies in 2007 -- and I do mean marginally -- it's like a concession to mediocrity for 2008. We already have 2 back-of-the-roation starters under contract for 2008. What we really need is another GOOD starter to complement Hamels.

Lohse is as mediocre as they come & has no discernible upside. With Jon Lieber in the rotation, we were basically a .500 team this year. Swapping Lieber for Lohse is, at best, a lateral move of one mediocre starter for another. We've been making these kinds of lateral moves in our starting rotation for years. The names change but, at bottom, a rotation with one good pitcher & 4 fungible mediocre ones is not going to get you to the playoffs.

Trading Rollins? It is funny to see how these things get a life of their own on a thread.

JRoll's contract extension through 2010 is going to go down as one of Ed Wade's best moves. Not only has JRoll showed alot more power since '05 but he has only marginally sacrificed his OBP and K/BB ratio. Plus, compared to the current market, JRoll is locked at ridiculously low numbers (06:$4M, 07:$7M, 08:$7M, 09:$7.5M, 10:$7.5M, 11:$8.5M ($2M buyout).

Alby:

I guess it depends on what you mean by "tradeable." Do you mean a commodity that a team would want? Or a player that the Phillies could easily move and replace?

I'm not sure how tradeable Howard is. No player in MLB history has reached 100 HR's in fewer at bats. Granted, he was more mature when he reached the majors, but the production has been remarkable nonetheless.

When you say "continue to be nagged by injuries"... he played 159 games last season. He opened this season with an injury, but I'm not ready to accept that he'll be a constant injury problem.

I'll put it this way: Ryan Howard continues to be one of the most feared sluggers in baseball... perhaps second to only Barry Bonds. After all, despite missing games to injury, Howard is still 2nd in intentional walks behind just Bonds with twice as many as Pujols.

Are you suggesting it would be easy to replace the 50 HR power in the middle of the lineup and that we could get equal value in return from anyone? This guy is in just his 2nd full ML season with a ROY and MVP on his resume already.

What makes him tradeable? He's irreplaceable. He's important to the teams marketing. He's young... and power-hitting first basemen can have long careers. He's cheap. And we'd never get equal value.

"one good pitcher & 4 fungible mediocre ones is not going to get you to the playoffs"

Exactly. Which is why it was so exciting to have Hamels join Myers at the top of the rotation this year. That lasted about 2 weeks.

I'd much rather deal Jaramillo than Ruiz. Yes, JJ is four years younger. But I don't think he has any more upside, and might have less. Remember that Ruiz didn't really start playing baseball in a serious way until he was 20 or so (no high school program, etc). His offense is pretty well established, considering what he did for years in the high minors and with the Phils in 2007. I expect a little more power to show up, and his defense is fine. In all, he's a "young 28," and might be comparable to Lo Duca who got a relatively late start to his big-league career and is still above-average in his mid/late 30s.

Even if Ruiz flames out--which I find highly doubtful--Lou Marson at Clearwater is looking like a viable prospect, and he's hitting well in high-A and handling good prospects at age 21.

Jaramillo stands out because he's the closest thing to a viable position prospect in the upper levels of the system. (Costanzo has more upside, but also more obvious flaws.) But between Ruiz now, Marson fairly soon, and Sanchez/D'Arnaud in a few years, we're in pretty good shape behind the plate. JJ is expendable and should be attractive, and I'd certainly deal him and a Happ or Maloney for the two Reds pitchers.

I'm liking all the defense of Rollins here (although one guy was audacious enough to compare him to Shawon Dunston!!). I don't think we have to worry about him getting restless and pouty; it's not like the Phils are doormats. They at least have a chance to win going into every season.

Here's my take on what the Phillies' trading stance will (or probably should) be: they won't do anything at the deadline (like most teams), but will see fit to snatch up whatever's left afterwards as they did by picking up Moyer and Conine for virtually nothing. Jason, I'm surprised you'd advocate trading Ruiz for such marginal players. For one thing, Kyle Lohse and David Weathers, while they might be an upgrade on what the Phillies presently have, are not the kind of players who can elevate a .500 team into a playoff team. Say the names out loud and consider them. These are flat-out *mediocrities*. Weathers as a closer for the next 1 1/2 seasons? I'd honestly just as soon have Alfonseca in that role. Weathers has no business being a closer.

If the Phils had a chance to acquire one or the other for Happ - I might do it. I don't see him fitting in with the Phillies' plans, not the way he'd be destined to give up heaps of homers in the home ballpark. But by trading Ruiz, the Phillies would really be screwing themselves. Ruiz isn't great, as you say, and he probably won't ever be, but I've watched him become an integral part of this team. I think he *fits* on the Phillies. I like the intensity he brings to the position, his RBI production. Moreover, if he's gone, the Phils would be *considerably* weakened at an important position - how can it be imagined they could get anywhere with Rod Barajas starting the majority of the games? Not only is Barajas a liability at the plate, but his leadership skills pale in comparison to Ruiz. He brings absolutely nothing to the table but a half-decent throwing arm. And then who is the catcher next year? Yet another need to fill. So in my estimation, such a scenario would have the Phillies losing at least as much as they'd be getting back. Someone asked, how many games has Ruiz won vs. games the bullpen has lost? But is David Weathers the kind of guy who can come in and suddenly change everything? Certainly not any more than Felix Rodriguez, Dennis Cook, Todd Jones, et al. Hey, for a fringe prospect of two, I'd take him. But not for Ruiz, and not in a million years for Bourn.

Gillick is in a tough position, without a doubt. The team is smack at .500 and there is pressure to make the playoffs after all these years. But it should not be in the kind of cut and dried terms as endorsed by clout, as being 'either you make bad trades or you're quitting on the season'. The road to ruin is not looking beyond the immediate, as Ed Wade proved nicely to us all. If Gillick can find a way to help this team without weakening it in other vital areas, and without weakening its position for the next few seasons, I'm all for it. If he can't, I won't utter a word of protest. The time to upgrade your team is in the off-season, not now, not unless you're trading from a well-stocked advantage. This is ransom season.

By the way, no one's mentioned Victor Zambrano...

Come on guys, Durbin is better than Lohse.
Have you seen Lohse pitch. The Reds want to
get rid of his salary, they would trade him
for Condrey.

Wayne, is that poetry? I like it.

Carlos being available
Or
Victor being a terrible trade pickup by mets

phila fan in dc: Extra base hits home and road aren't nearly as relevant as HRs home and road. What's Rollins' split on those?

dajafi: Who would trade for Jaramillo? He's a fringe prospect at best.

Trading either Howard or Rollins would be a PR disaster, even if the Phils did get equal value. Given the poor return on trades for Rolen, Schilling & Abreu, the team shouldn't even entertain the idea.

wayne: Durbin is better than Lohse? At what? Darts?

O'Neil, good point...I mentioned Zambrano because Toronto just released him, but he's perhaps the best possible example of the danger that exists in all this trade-deadline hubris.

He would give up less runs than Lohse, and
he is 4 years younger. Lohse is also being
paid 3.5 million when he's not worth 1.

RSB: I noticed the Zambrano thing too. He's struggled overcoming injuries the past 2 years and I wouldn't use him as a starter because he was bad at that when he was healthy. But he'd be an upgrade in the bullpen over everyone on the active roster except for Madson and Alfonseca. (Yes, the pen is that bad). Assuming he's healthy, of course. He wouldn't cost much either.

rollins
9 home runs at cbp
7 home runs on the road

not much of a difference . . .

RSB... I didn't even want to address the Shawon Dunston comparison, but it really speaks to the cluelessness of some fans.

Dunston was in the top 10 in triples twice, doubles once and stolen bases once... his only top five appearance is in doubles. He was also top 5 in strike outs once.

Rollins has been in the top 3 in runs scored three years running and leads the league this year. He lead the league in triples three times and leads the league this year. He's also been top 10 in hits 3 times, total bases once, doubles once, stolen bases five times (including leading the league), and extra base hits.

Rollins has a higher career BA, OBP, SLG and OPS+. In less than half the seasons, Rollins already has more stolen bases and has two thirds of Dunston's career home run total. Rollins has received MVP votes in four different seasons and was an All-Star three times out of 8 seasons (Dunston was an All-Star twice out of 18 seasons).

Rollins compares to Dunston? Let's put that one to bed.

"how many games has Ruiz won vs. games the bullpen has lost?" talk about making up a stat to fit your argument, sheesh.

Rollins splits:

2004 HR: 8 H / 6 A
2004 OPS: .876 H / .733 A

2005 HR: 5 H / 7 A
2005 OPS: .786 H / .754 A

2006 HR: 15 H / 10 A
2006 OPS: .875 H / .756 A

2007 HR: 9 H / 7 A
2007 OPS: .824 H / .869 A

the 2007 home/away OPS is particularly strange. the differential is mainly driven by OBP: this year Rollins has a .310 OBP at CBP and a .347 OBP everywhere else.

Alby: You'll get no protest from me when you say that Howard is the most tradeable of the Phillies' blue chip players. This is not to say that I would trade him -- though someone on this board is bound to interpret it that way. But, if I could get a front-line starter & maybe something else, I wouldn't slam the door on the possibility. This is no knock on Howard. It's just that: (1) if the Phillies are ever to acquire another top-of-the-rotation pitcher, they're either going to have to pay a boatload in the free agent market or they're going to have to trade a blue chip player or prospect; and (2) it's not terribly difficult to find guys who can play first base & put up good offensive numbers -- especially in CB Park.

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