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Wednesday, June 27, 2007

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I never thought this Burrell vs. Bourn thing would be such a big debate. Some of you keep holding out hope that Burrell will come out of this funk and post #'s close to his career norm. Is that possible? Yes, it's possible, but will it happen this season, and will playing him every day help him get out of the funk? He's had his chance, and he's blown it miserably. 2 abysmal months, and the fact that he doesn't bring anything else to the table if he's not producing the .850+ OPS are reasons he should be benched. We can all admit Pat defense is not good, with the exception of a decent arm, and that his speed on the basepaths is subpar. Therefore, if he's not producing at the plate, what value is he to the team in the lineup? The answer is none! Bourn is the rookie that has tremendous speed, great range in the outfield, and if he can keep his on base % around .350 can be an asset to this lineup, moreso than the current Burrell is.

I think Burrell is shot.

The answer to Carson's question is "less than none" if Utz and Howard are on the basepaths, or if there are 2 out. It's a net negative.

On the flip side, Bourn is creating runs and giving his teammates a greater chance of winning.

Quick question- why the hell is No-Hit Nunez starting tonight over Dobbs? Probably because of his defense and Moyer on the mound...c'mon, ride the hitter not the $hitter.

I am optimistic that the Phils will get to Harang tonight but I am also worried that Moyer won't be able to keep the ball down tonight and get hit pretty hard.

Looking at one of those ugly slamfests tonight possibly . . . say 8-6 Reds.

Question posed to me that I would pass along to the Beerleaguer community -- Do you trade Carlos Ruiz and if so, will he bring you pitching help ? The assumption being that Barajas / Coste could handle the catching duties this season.

well p o'neil is on the record: Burrell is done. Washed up at age 30. How about Andruw? Is he finished too?

Lineups

Phils
1. J Rollins, SS
2. M Bourn, LF
3. C Utley, 2B
4. R Howard, 1B
5. A Rowand, CF
6. S Victorino, RF
7. A Nunez, 3B
8. C Ruiz, C
9. J Moyer, P

Reds
1. J Hamilton, CF
2. B Phillips, 2B
3. K Griffey Jr., RF
4. J Conine, 1B
5. A Dunn, LF
6. E Encarnacion, 3B
7. A Gonzalez, SS
8. D Ross, C
9. A Harang, P

I think Carlos Ruiz will give you at least 3 years of solid ML catching. What's not to like? If you want to limp along with Barajas/Coste, you'd better get back something good, not just another #5 pitcher.

Bourn in LF again. I *love* it. About damn time.

Carson, Nunez starts when Moyer starts, period. You ought to know that by now.

If you trade Ruiz, you'd better be sure that Jaramillo can step in next year. I think they're realizing they have a pretty good thing in him, though, and they're probably kicking themselves for not giving him an earlier start and dragging Lieberthal around an extra two years.

I think the game will feature a lot of homers but not a lot of baserunners. 6-4, Phillies.

RSB: I don't know that Jaramillo will ever be ready. I like what I see in Chooch and I think he'll get better. Jaramillo projects as a backup at best.

Dan Fox, over at a Baseball Prospectus chat, vaguely mentioned a possible deal for Brad Lidge involving Ruiz (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=315), FWIW. Of course, I'd rather part with Barajas, one of the third baseman, or Burrell. Would you all rather see the Phils get relief pitching or some rotation help? How would you all feel if they did nothing at all?

Chooch is a solid catcher but the best thing about him is that the Phils have him locked up for a couple of years at cheap dollars. If Chooch continues to demonstrate he can play every day, the Phils can use some of that money on spent on Barajas this year for help at 3B or pitching next year.

Sophist: If the Phils do not add a quality pitcher they don't make the playoffs. It's simple as that. I think they need a starting pitcher. Justin Germano?

I'd prefer a starter as well. Is Germano still pitching for the Pads? Do you think they could make a deal with them? San Diego did just get a solid catcher from the Cubs.

I'd hate to give up Ruiz but if that's Lidge's price... I mean, you'd make Lidge the closer, Alfonseca moves to the 8th, Myers starts, Kendrick seems decent enough, I think they'd have a shot at making the playoffs. Moreover it might not hurt the team much - Barajas's offensive numbers are about as good as Ruiz's once you look past his average. Higher OBP, about the same slugging percentage. Then again I'm not sure he keeps that up - he's currently posting a career high in OBP by a long shot. Already he's walked one more time than last year with 248 fewer at-bats. But, even assuming his production does fall off, I think the improvement in the pitching staff would more than make up for it - you just hate to mortgage away your future at a key position for a one-year shot at the postseason, and not a very good shot at that.

Sophist: The Pads need some pop. How about Burrell for Germano with us paying half his salary? The extra money (and profit cut)would be a daily reminder to the owners of the quality of Gillick's personnel decision making. And, yes, Germano is still in the rotation. He's 5-1 with a 2.67 ERA in 9 starts.

I posted this on the last thread and received little to no response, but I feel like it's worth discussing: could Burrell's struggles be tied to declining eyesight? We were told that Burrell tried contacts in spring training, but he didn't find them comfortable. Could it be possible that he's being stubborn and not dealing with his eyesight? And could that stubbornness be related to his struggles?

Maybe Burrell is just a pair of Reggie Jackson goggles away from putting up some Reggie Jackson numbers.

Lidge... you really want lidge to close? He is destroyed in pressure situations... I woudln't want to bring him in at all, but if we do, we gotta make him a 7th inning man. Let Alfonseca set up when Myers comes back, and keep lidge out of anything too pressure packed.

Myers wont' re-enter the rotation. He's said that he doesn't want to, the management said they won't move him back (of course, they lie), and it would probably take a lot of time to get his arm back to full strength to let him start. Just isn't happening this year...

I love how we are discussing getting Germano back, when we released him outright for nothing...

I don't know if the Padres would even want to take on Burrell with how much he's been declining. I'd do the deal in a second, Burrell isn't doing anything for us, and Germano can help, but who knows how he'll perform in the second half. Has he ever pitched a full MLB season?

I know, why exactly would the Phillies think Brad Lidge would be the answer as closer when he's bombed out of that role two seasons in a row? No thanks. Besides, you don't create deficits in order to try to fill others. Ruiz is an important player on this team, and tbe Phillies can't afford to trade him.

Again: it's too late to think about trades. Either the Phils come up with a Moyer steal or a waiver wire bonanza, or nothing. It is useless to speculate day in and day out. They have nothing to trade. *Nothing*.

How are any of us to know if the problem is Burrell's eyes? Looks to me like it's his bat speed. That could be related to eyesight and reaction, but no one possibly could know but Burrell, so what do you expect anyone to say?

Haven't watched enough of Jones to say he's "done". I say he's slumping. He's had more recent success to call it a slump. Sucks for him that it's in his walk year. Burell on the other hand, I can't even stand see come up to the plate. Doesn't seem capable of adjusting.


/Of couse, he's capable of hitting here and there. Just "done" in my eyes as being a starter on this team, and I don't really see a "change of scenery" helping him.

RSB - Although it might be out of character for the team that signed Freddy Garcia without giving him a physical, it seems somebody in the organization suggested that Burrell get contacts. That says to me that he doesn't have 20/20 vision.

We speculate about a lot of things on this board. The doctor who prescribed him the contacts knows his eyesight, but you're right that nobody knows if it's affecting his hitting. If you were paying a guy $14M to be a top hitter, though, wouldn't you insist that he be seeing with the sharpest focus possible?

Or maybe it's just wishful thinking that some lenses could get his mojo back.

I think they brought up the issue of eyesight because Burrell took so many called third strikes the last two years. The strikeouts haven't actually been as bad a problem for Burrell this year. His foot speed and his bat speed have both declined and those are the biggest reasons why his average is so low.

Beautiful sequence by Moyer there against Dunn.

hmmm... where.. to.. begin.

For one, I don't want Lidge. Not that I don't want him, I just don't want to give up anything of value for a guy who has shown himself to be a headcase. Those types of players don't tend to succeed in Philly.

Secondly.. yes, Burrell is done. The reason I'd say he definitely is and Jones definitely isn't is bc this is the first time Jones has struggled, whereas Burrell has been hurrendous on and off for years, And now he's just atrocious. I don't know why it's incredible to think a 30 year old could just lose it, everyone has a different body type. Have you seen Burrell run lately? He's now broken down physically as well as mentally. We will never get anything other than a grade C prospect for him and that's only if we pay 90% of his salary and send him to the AL to DH. San Diego's outfield is way too big for them to let him roam it. It really shocks me that there are still Burrell defenders out there. Our problem the last however many years has been consistency, with Burrell the main culprit. We're better off with someone who will consistently put pressure on a pitcher.

Finally, Victorino brings a ton to the table and I'm just fine with him manning RF for the next 5 years. He's only gonna get better.

Someone needs to piss off Steve Smith again. They're better off with him suspended.

Nunez screwed up a sign. What a shock.

Can anyone give me a reason for why we see Victorino in the 6 spot and Bourne at 2? I am struggling to find a decent answer.

why is nunez playing, dobbs is hitting the ball so well....you have a bunt on with howard at 3rd base, another dumb mistake by this team and manuel just looks dumbfounded...typical...

I blamed Smith, clout blames Nunez, but for all we know it was Howard's fault.

Brian G: Burrell has been "atrocious off and on for years"? I wish we had an atrocious guy this year with an .890 OPS.

Kevin: Read all the posts from yesterday's game. There are plenty of good reasons.

I'm watching on MLB Gameday. Can anyone tell me what just happened with Nunez? Please tell me that sacrifice wasn't a called play.

Smith gives the signs for squeeze, and Howard is standing right next to him so I believe he would of told him, so I expect Nunez screwed up.

i can't possibly see howard being the 3rd base side of a squeeze.

Burrell has been mostly mediocre. He has an excellent season, a very good season, and an atrocious season (working on a second) under his belt. His other four seasons can be characterized as disappointing. Who cares anyway, he's on the bench now. Is he done? More likely than not. He might have a good season or two left in him, but they won't be in Philadelphia.

Brian G - "Finally, Victorino brings a ton to the table and I'm just fine with him manning RF for the next 5 years. He's only gonna get better."

Victorino relies so much on his speed. I would think he might decline a bit as the years go on.

the Nunez idiotic bunt aside the accountant in me wants to offer up the following after seeing that the phils are averaging 37,000 per game in attendance.

If you figure in that during the peak summer months this team will in contention i would expect the average for the year to approximate about 39,000 per game. That equates to 3,160,000 million fans for the season. Ok if the average ticket price is roughly $30 then they are bringing in $95 million alone in ticket sales. Ok last year baseball coughed up over $300 million in revenue sharing for the entire league. If you figure we get a small piece of that ($5million) then were are at $100 million right there for this season. THis doesn't include tv/radio ads, naming rights to the stadium, merchandising, parking & concession revenues. Those alone probably amount to over $30 million on an annual basis. Ok in my estimation this team will bring in ~$130 million this year.

Our payroll is this year is $95 million. I'd sure as hell hope this team, if in contention, will TAKE on payroll for the 2nd half of the season cause I DO NOT want to hear the small market bull$hit excuse anymore. We, as fans, have come up big time and supported this team and what do we get? Better be AT LEAST a playoff berth this year.

Remember 2004 Bowa's last season as manager the slogan on the team's tshirts in spring training was "this is the year" or some other crap. Well Stand Pat go out and make THIS the year you bum.

And his inconsistency and soul sucking K's aren't conducive to winning baseball. There's a reason there weren't many takers for him when we tried to dump him last year. He's a case where stats don't tell the whole story. Watching him day to day tells it.

Tbex: Victorino is 26. I think he'll be fast for awhile.

Bay Area: I appreciate your pointing me over to that page, but I still haven't found exactly what I'm looking for.

I see that people are agreeing that we'd like to see Bourn against a right hander and that victorino-dobbs-ruiz can become an asset at the bottom of the order, but I don't see how this differs from bourn-dobbs-ruiz. Why did vic lose his 2-hole spot?

The Dude: first, I'll make clear, and you probably know anyway, that I'm no apologist for the Phillies. But a) there's all kinds of operating expenses you aren't considering in that equation, and b) what exactly do you want Gillick to do now? The time to act was in the off-season. The window of opportunity is closed.

Kevin: It's all those things and that Victorino has more power than Bourn, so he would be able to knock in some runs if Utley/Howard/rowand are out there.

Kevin R:

One reason would be Vic has a little more pop than Bourn and with Utley/Howard/Rowand in front of him, there's more RBI opportunities.

kev -

vic didn't "lose" his spot. it was not a demotion, it was a change that cholly thought would produce better.

maybe its the power that vic can bring that makes him more suited for 6th.

Gillick in the Phils' broadcast booth. All our questions are sure to be answered.

wow. I think exactly the same as Steve Jeltz.

Also, the payroll we could bring on would be guys like Dotel or Gagne who make like five mil each I think.

"the power that Vic can bring"

hilarious!

ae -

compared to bourn, vic has power.

Did Bourn get injured? Why did Dobbs suddenly come into the game to replace him?

uh, okay. and compared to Jeff Weaver, Adam Eaton's going to win the Cy Young.

DAMN! Ryno is back.

I have never seen a homerun hit so far. OH MY GOODNESS GRACIOUS!

Hey-ho, Howard!!!

vic has as much power as burrell this year.

:-)

Holy Howard!

now THAT = power...

Awesome at bat by Chaser to give Howard an opportunity to come to the plate...down 0-2 and he keeps foulin the ball off and draws a walk. Brilliant!

sweet merciful jesus of the blessed top spin...

ae, i completely agree.

Don't forget Dobbs who had singled with 2 outs

Wow. I love how Harang didn't even take a peek at it. An absolutely 100% no doubt about it bomb.

Brian G-you're exactly right. Just have to watch him play. Stats don't always tell the whole story.

I feel bad for Burrell. He doesn't seem like a bad guy. Hell, if I had his looks and paycheck, I'd like to go out too. And from what i've heard, he does practice/go to the cages, etc.

sheesh, moyer is "overpowering" tonight.

is that hit column for the reds correct?

Moyer is really locked in tonight. So much for my predicted slugfest tonight.

Bourn has cramps. Understandable. No pickle juice in the dugout, I guess.

never mind :-)

bay area phan,

bourn had leg cramps.

Argh, Joe...

Did they give a distance on Howard's homer yet?

Damn Nunez hes in there for defense

Thanks for the info. I was already speculating that he had been traded -- especially when I heard that Gillick randomly showed up in the radio booth to talk about the state of the team.

Thanks a lot, Joe.

Jamie, you're still young. you'll have more chances.

sifl--I've asked about the Burrell contact lense thing here too, also with little response. But I still think there might be something to it.

First of all, either you need contacts or you don't. Its not a fashion statement. If Burrell was "trying them out" that means that at some point a doctor tested his eyesight and found it deteriorating.

I don't see how even a slight deterioration in vision in a game as precise as baseball isn't going to have a huge effect on a player's productivity.

But we know that Charlie the "player's manager" isn't going to force anybody to do anything, so I guess Burrell wasn't forced to stick with the corrective lenses.

Still I worry that in another year when he leaves for another team he'll have a huge, contact lense-related resurgence.

505 on the howard dinger.

505 was distance of homer

Howard's bomb looks a lot like the one from last year. That was measured at 491 feet, but I remember a little bit of controversy with that distance.

anybody else feel like Geary will screw up this game

What I wouldn't give for a hammer out of the pen that could get a strikeout here instead of the offspeed junk that Geary throws?

I'm pretty sick of Geary

Ugh. At least it wasn't a grand slam.

Geary is not been pitching well and Gonzales is not that very good of hitter - Cholly should of noticed that Gonzalez hits Geary well

so at this point do we chalk up geary's 2006 season as an odd run of luck?

When is he gonna take Geary out? I just knew he would screw uyp this game

Geary is a f'n bum!

Geary's absolutely awful. I'd like to take this opportunity to once again thank Pat Gillick for bringing us Helms and Barajas and no bullpen help. Nice job, Pat.

What team's crappy bullpen will blow the game?

As for Dubee, what do you think he is saying to Dubee when he comes out there? "Um. Tough break. That ump is really squeezing the corner but your control is a little off. Try to get an out. Go get'em."

Cholly, you just tied up a game we had won.

Geary isn't great, but even if you put the best into a bases loaded situation they won't often come out on top. Should have canned Moyer at the beginning of the inning and left the bullpen to mop it up the best they can.

Joe: Compared to Bourn, YOU have power. But I don't think I want you hitting 6th for the Phillies.

Geary is heinous.

Very logical, SDPhillie. Geary comes in & allows all 3 inherited runners, plus he allows an additional run of his own . . . & yet you somehow think he would have done better than Moyer if he had started the inning?

Moyer had pitched 6 shutouts innings & Cholly was supposed to somehow foresee that he was going to come out in the 7th and suddenly lose it? You can fault Cholly for choosing Geary but you certainly can't fault him for not going to the bullpen at the start of the innnig.

Clout who the hell do you want to be batting 6th

I'm baffled when people think that Geary is some kind of stud. Doesn't anyone look at his stuff? He had a fine season last year, but a guy with his mediocre stuff is never going to be dominant. He was a grade C prospect coming up and has exceeded expectations. He was a 15th rounder for cryin' out loud.

Mark my words...Geary will not pitch again this week. Unless its a blow out.

Of all the bad things we say about Manuel I think we all have to agree that he's coaching every game like its his last. SO he will not put in a no - confidence Geary in during pressure situations again for a while.

fljerry: Someone with 25 HR power at least.

The score is going to be 7-3 after this inning. Yup, a 7-run 7th inning.

How many times in the last few weeks has the bp contributed to a monster inning for the opponents?

How many leads has the bullpen blown by now?

Reed: Counting blown leads plus runs allowed that prevented the Phillies from catching up in games they trailed, I counted 13 losses attributable to the bullpen, but I stopped counting last week.

this game is looking a lot like that detroit game a couple weeks back where eaton pitched pretty well, got into some trouble, got yanked, and the BP coughed up a huge inning...

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