Beer nuts: Victorino is no novelty act in right field

One of Beerleaguer's hottest debates of the off-season focused on whether yesterday's hero and collectible figurine, Shane Victorio, was capable of becoming a full-time right-fielder. While his power production has been less than most corners, the rest of his game has been rock solid.

Sometimes it's beneficial to step outside the box and look at what other teams are doing, and how the Phillies stack up. It’s worth it with an oddity like Victorino, who’s unlike any other right fielder in the National League.

NL right fielders tend to be the same basic variety, a little less impressive than their counterparts in left field, players like Brad Hawpe, Shawn Green, but also some real productive ones like Ken Griffey Jr. and Jeff Francouer. Victorino isn’t a prototype at the position but it doesn’t mean he isn’t pulling his weight. You look at how he stacks up against other NL regulars and it's not too shabby. Defensively, he's tremendous, but offensively, his OBP has stayed on the high side and he's generating runs. Credit a lot of that to his speed and beating out groundballs, which he seems to do every other game, but he's also drawn 22 walks, which is third on the team and ranks high among his NL counterparts. The difference is he’s turning his walks and base hits into scoring chances. His 16 stolen bases leads the team and is far more than any NL right fielder.

The production adds up. He's third in runs created for NL RFs behind Francouer and Junior. Vic plays a lot while some other teams go with a platoon, which is part of why he ranks so high. However, his RC/G is better than average for regular right fielders.

I'm honestly a little surprised; I probably fell among the skeptical side of the Victorino debate, believing he’d overstay his welcome there. After two months of regular play, I would have pegged him for a .250 average, 40 strikeouts and a .310 OBP. It's been a nice little development watching him stay productive like this, and his arm has been magnificent.

Ballpark and pitching thoughts
The last time the Phillies had a walk off home run, I wrote a little Carlos Ruiz tribute that made it onto SI.com. It won’t happen this time. The circumstances were a little less dramatic yesterday, plus it was one of those patented Citizens Bank Park cheapies. They’re happening with greater frequency now.

I can’t get inside the head of Phillies pitchers, but I wonder how much that short porch weighs on their minds and alters the way they pitch. The rain had something to do with it yesterday, but how many times do you see Ryan Madson and Geoff Geary nibble? They’re shockingly better pitchers on the road this season. Madson’s career would have new life if he was liberated from CBP and given a bigger playground. I don't think he'd be so fine with his pitches. If I’m a GM like Jim Bowden in Washington, who reportedly took interest in Madson this winter, I’d continue to place calls about him. He would be a cheap building block for a young starting rotation.

Ex-Phillies stinking up Texas
Beerleaguer senior correspondent Martin Smith calls attention to the Texas Rangers, where ex-Phillies right-hander Robinson Tejeda leads all starting pitchers with a 6.28 ERA. Then it’s Brandon McCarthy (6.38), Kameron Loe (6.37), ex-Phil Vicente Padilla (6.45) and ex-Phil Kevin Millwood (6.69). Tejeda pitched yesterday and allowed seven runs over 5 2-3 innings.

New Rowand trade rumor surfaces
From Chicago Sun-Times: The Sox were close to making a deal with the Phillies at the winter meetings and again in spring training that would've brought back South Side cult figure Aaron Rowand and sent bullpen help to the middle-relief-starved Phillies.

The snag in the spring was that Philadelphia reportedly wanted left-handed reliever Matt Thornton, rather than Boone Logan and a package of minor-leaguers. The Sox have a new card to play with, however, and could offer a disappointing Mike MacDougal along with a minor-leaguer for Rowand.

Ottawa HR ratio: It can’t be the cold weather
Home runs hit: 11
Home runs allowed: 49

Comments

[loctastic]

Madson is still a two pitch pitcher, regardless of where he is at. Unless he can learn another pitch, he'll always be in the bullpen.

[ae]

Victorino's continuing solid play has been one of the few welcome surprises of this season. worth noting that as a CF, he would rank even higher - 3rd in OBP behind only Rowand and Beltran, 6th in OPS, and 4th in RC/27.

[J. Weitzel]

loctastic: I would agree with that. He scrapped his curve for a slider. He doesn't use it or need to establish it in the bullpen. I still wonder about his upside as a starter however. Not here, but elsewhere.

[mm]

You know, It would be really nice if Garcia would stop complaining about being pulled after giving up five in one inning while were a .500 team.

I don't think he realize's a) how terrible he's been and b) he's not in the AL anymore.

[Malcolm]

I definitely think Victorino should be a CF and not a RF. Rowand's tendency to play too shallow hurts the Phils, whereas Vic could play shallow because of his speed. Also, his numbers reflect a CF more than a RF.

As far as the Rangers are concerned, if you saw the highlights last night, you would've seen bad defense from two more former Phils: Matt Kata and Marlon Byrd. Come to think, the Rangers in many ways are the Phils West.

[MJV]

Has anyone seen the clip of the Burrell's 4th inning throwing error on sunday? I hear it was hysterical.

[bay_area_phan]

Actually, Burrell's error wasn't half as ridiculous as zagurski's. On Burrell's, a wet ball just slipped out of his hand as he went to throw. Zagurski, however, knocked down a line drive with his mitt, picked up the ball, took a full windup as if he were trying to throw a 95 MPH fastball to the first baseman, and literally threw the ball 6 inches in front of him on the ground. I don't know where the Phillies come up with these guys.

[Walter]

This is Ryan Madson's 10th year in the organization and he still is what he was when he first arrived as a 17-year-old - a 2-pitch pitcher. The theory of instruction in the minor leagues is a farse. And the hitting part of the equation is worse.

[longwood]

Off topic, but are there any other season ticket holders planning on going to the Season ticket holder appreciation nights this week (Tuesday and Wednesday)? I noticed that the list of events does not include a question and answer session with Gillick like it did last year. I called and was told they are busy preparing for the draft. Fortuitous timing?

[SC]

The way Rowand has played for us so far this season, it would be a disgrace to deal him for a pitcher with a WHIP over 2. I like Bourn, so I'm not uniformly opposed to dealing Rowand if we could get a top-tier setup guy back, but MacDougal doesn't qualify by a long shot.

[davthom73]

From Marcus Hayes in today's Philadelphia Daily News:

"Entering last night's game with Double A Reading, catcher/first baseman Chris Coste was 13-for-34 with three home runs and 11 RBI in eight games since being demoted after a brief call-up that ended May 25. Catcher Rod Barajas is 0-for-7 in that span."

link:

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20070604_Gordon_enjoys_an_effective_throwing_session__but_not_rushing_things.html

[davthom73]

complete Philadelphia Daily News link for the preceding post which inexplicably was cut off:

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20070604_Gordon_enjoys_an_effective_throwing_session__but_not_rushing_things.html

[MG]

Madson has good stuff but is really a mental thing with him. For whatever reason, he seems to wilt when the game is close and late. I would love to see if some stats bear that out.

Madson might be back again next year but I am not sure if the Phils will offer him arbitration again. That said, Madson could do very well as a 6th/7th inning pitcher in a low-key market. Certainly worse arms out there than Madson.

[Mike Cunningham]

@bay_area_phan -- I think Zagurski's throw was the result of him second guessing himself and trying to stop himself from forcing a throw. The end result? The guy was going to be safe anyway... HOLD the ball don't make an error. It's a smart play.

Second, Pat Burrell's throw slipped out of his hand. I'm glad few have ripped him for it (save for Rob Charry and others on 610.) But regardless of how some feel about "Burrell's butchering of left field" he makes up for his lack of speed with an above average arm and smart play. Phans in this town incorrectly criticize Burrell for not diving for balls and letting balls fall in front of him. Burrell 9/10 times makes the correct call out there (given his limitations) and because of his above average arm, he can turn Double's into Singles and Triple's in to Doubles.

[Mike Cunningham]

Dealing Rowand for a reliever would be a mistake, unless the guy was a top of the line player who can help you for 3 years. Rowand potentially could make the all star game with his numbers this year. In addition, the only reason to trade Rowand would be a) If you feel you can't sign him. b) you think you have no shot at the playoffs this year. And if you have NO chance at the playoffs this year, then why pick up some middling middle relief to keep you in what 20 games for the rest of the season?

We've traded starting players for middle relief before (Polanco for Urbina). That worked out for us.

[J. Weitzel]

Rollins looks like he could use a day off, but the way the bench is constructed, it makes it hard to give both J-Roll and Utley breaks. They've got Nunez, but he's basically wrapped up in the third base mix with two non-fielders in Dobbs and Helms. It's a strange dynamic with this bench, a little too much one-dimensionality. I don't think Charlie is giving his team the best chance to win carrying 12 pitchers.

[Phila Fan In DC]

Clout, seeing as I mentioned that I think we need to figure out if Bourn can preform at this level, I'll respond to your question from the last thread: "Here's the question for posters who want to start Bourn: Do you think this team can make the playoffs?"

I don't mean to advocate starting Bourn for long stretches- I'd just like to see him start more often than he currently does. We don't have a solution for what to do with Pat, let alone what to do once Pat is gone. We need to start worrying about that.

Then again, I've always been a long-term kinda guy, and feel like the only team who's had that view in the city is the Birds, and I quibble with their moves frequently.

[bay_area_phan]

Jason, I did some follow-up on your comments about Madson & Geary having much better numbers on the road than at home. Turns out the same is true for just about everyone on the Phillies' staff, except for Cole, Myers & Alfonseca (who, not coincidentally, are probably the Phillies' 3 best strikeout guys).

This got me to further thinking: are we perhaps over-estimating the talent in our lineup. Are our guys putting up misleadingly strong numbers solely because of the park we play in? For the most part, the answer seems to be no -- though Utley & Burrell are notable exceptions. However, while Utley is hitting .50 pts higher at home than on the road, his power numbers are almost identical on the road as they are at home. And Burrell's power numbers in 2006 were actually better on the road than they were at home.

This is an "eyeball" analysis and not a scientific one, but if our ballpark were really the hitters haven that it is made out to be, it should be reflected not only in our pitchers' home-away numbers but our hitters' as well. Maybe it's just a statistical fluke that so many of our pitchers have such stark home-away splits. Perhaps it's just that these pitchers aren't very good in the first place.

[Tray]

ESPN today reports we're interested in Jose Mesa, recently cut by the Tigers. Jose had an ERA of 12.34 this season.

"In Jose Mesa's last tour of duty as a Phillie, in 2003, he was being booed so vociferously, the team all but stopped pitching him in home games for the last two months of the season. But four years later, the Phillies are contemplating his once-unimaginable return, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.
According to a source who has spoken with Phillies GM Pat Gillick and with Mesa?s agent, Mitch Frankel, the Phillies have contacted Frankel about signing the 41-year-old reliever in the wake of his release Sunday by the Tigers.

After leaving in 2003, Mesa had told friends he would never pitch for the Phillies again. But the departure of then-manager Larry Bowa and then-pitching coach Joe Kerrigan has apparently caused Mesa to soften his stance. Several other teams are believed to be interested. So it isn't known how quickly Mesa and Frankel will make a decision. "

[John]

You know, I think from now on I'm going to ignore any Rowand rumors coming out Chicago, at least if they remain as terrible as they have been.

[J. Weitzel]

We can't trade Rowand because he has a Philadelphia mentality.

Seriously, Phillies need to think prospects if they consider this. Given a choice between McDougal and lesser prospects and good prospects and Mesa off scrap pile, I'd go with the second choice.

[ae]

I'll be honest - I don't see the point in giving Bourn a whole lot more playing time. no Philadelphia team starting Victorino and Bourn in the same outfield will make the playoffs, unless we can trade pitching staffs with San Diego or Oakland or convince Alex Rodriguez to come here and play third.

[Zeke]

Anyone know how I could get a tape of Sunday's game? Thanks.

[bay_area_phan]

When I saw that Mesa had been waived, I was joking with my family that we would probably sign him (he did pitch for Gillick's Mariners, after all). If the rumor has any validity, then I think it's time for Gillick's family to check him into an assisted care facility.

[yt]

I live in NYC, and often listen to sports radio when driving around.

There is a strange dynamic up here; even with the Muts in first and built to contend for a few years to come, the Yanks still dominate the discussion about 90/10. Which is exceedingly annoying, unless you are like the folks at ESPN (who labor under the impression that there are two teams in MLB the Sox and the Yanks).

Anyway, the point as relates to this post is just that it is always interesting to see how things look from the other side of the fence. I can tell you folks now that the verdict is in, and according to NYC sports talk folks like Brandon Tierny, Mike (Golic) and Mike (Green), even Jody McDonald (the list goes on and on) as well as 95% of the callers Pat Gillick is portrayed as a genius who suckered Cashman in the now infamous Bobby Abreu deal.

I heard his play in RF described the other day as a guy who looks like he expects “Ronnie Lott to come flying out of the right field wall” (for the football impaired Lott played safety for those 49er teams that featured some guy named Joe Montana and won a few Super thingies).

This analysis of course ignores the fact that the Phils got nothing for Abreu.

This is not to spark debate, simply an observation I wanted to share.

[P O'Neil]

Gotta get Josh Fields(3b prospect) from the Chisox.

The Phils were able to find someone to gobble all of Abreu's contract. That's what they got.

[GM-Carson]

Clay Condrey should be sent down and Chris Coste brought up...plain and simple.

[Alby]

Clout, I don't doubt that you pegged Germano as a valuable 4th-5th starter. I compared him with Small, recognizing their disparate ages ages when they caught lightning in a bottle, because they were a similar type of pitcher -- they're always going to be overlooked by scouting types because they don't light up the radar gun. Before going 10-0 for the Yanks, Small played for five different organizations in five years.

My point in bringing up the San Diego fan blog is that, despite Germano's strong showing, he's apparently just a few decent minor leauge starts by Hensley away from hitting the waiver wire again. It's not just the Phillies who overlook these guys, it's most organizations.

Having seen the results, I'd certainly rather have Germano than Garcia. But if the front office had said that back in February, most of us would have written it off as another typically cheap move by a front office with no commitment to winning. Just sayin'.

[dajafi]

I hate our park. Yeah, we got a win yesterday out of it, but the way CBP plays cheapens the game.

Chalk up another one to Bill Giles, who ran the development of the stadium with his characteristic astonishing ineptitude. Aren't cheap homers "fun," jackass?

[P O'Neil]

Let's not forget when the Phils waived him, 22 other teams passed Germano over, and when the Padres sent him down, every team passed him over.

[Johnny Goodtimes]

Off to the ballpark. Please send a few prayers to the rain gods for me. And the baseball gods. Also, thought you guys might be interested in a contrarian view of Bonds and why I think Philly fans give him a raw deal: http://www.johnnygoodtimes.com/archives/003307.shtml

Go Phils!

[bay_area_phan]

Alby, From my perspective, it's not about Justin Germano per se. It's about a recurring pattern of over-valuing the talent of the guys we bring in (Garcia, Eaton, Nunez, Helms, Ricardo Rodriguez, etc.) & under-valuing the talent of the guys we ship out (Germano, Chavez, Coste, Fultz).

[mm]

P'O Neil
I thought about fields as well a few months back and then i talked to my chisox fan friend. Apparently the Sox have been trying to get Fields to pan out into some sort of everyday player for years and it hasn't really worked, and considering the fact crede has about as many injuries as griffey and he might even throw in the towel early on the season and have some surgery done, depending on where they are at the break, I don't see them willing to move fields at this time.

Theres just no good trade there for us with the white sox. We'd have to work out a multi team deal.

[Tony]

How does it cheapen the win? It plays just as small for the visiting teams. If he would have hit it over Ashburn Alley would it have made it better?

[GM-Carson]

Why is Barajas catching so much?

He sucks!

[clout]

P O'Neil: You're right about 22 other teams passing on Germano at the end of spring training, but that doesn't mean a thing. The Phillies kept far worse pitchers on their 25 man roster, which is the point.

[clout]

bay area phan: Exactly right.

[P O'Neil]

In the end, every team, except for the Padres, passed on Germano. 2(Reds, Phils) let him go, one way or another. That does mean something.

The fact that the Phils kept worse pitchers, while true, is another point.

[laramie]

bay area phan: While I won't contest the larger point of overvaluing the talent we bring in while letting go of actual talent, c'mon, Endy Chavez? He was TERRIBLE when he was here. He did virtually nothing for us. Terrible OBP, terrible average, almost nothing on the basepaths. Letting him go in free agency made perfect sense.

[curt]

Seems like just a few weeks ago everyone was angsting over the loss of Tejeda. I doubt Germano will be someone anyone wants to talk about by year end.

[curt]

laramie -- hindsight is perfect. Of course, no one shed a tear for Endy until he got away from the great hitting coach Cholly and actually started hitting in NY.

[curt]

I see Cholly finally has a lineup against Zito that makes some sense...unfortunately, looks like same old result 1st time through the order. Maybe better luck this time.

[curt]

What's with Utley bunt the 1st time? Surely the plan wasn't to open a bag for Howard?

[curt]

Oh well, looks like we get into SF BP early today.

[JB]

Giants score 5 runs with 2 outs, Phillies have bases loaded with no outs and score 1 run.

That about sums it up right there.

[Deanna]

Heh, I was at yesterday's Rangers-Mariners game. I actually almost yelled something like "THAT'S WHY THE PHILLIES DUMPED YOUR ASS IN TEXAS, TEJEDA" after he walked in a run by walking Ichiro, but I figured nobody in the stands would get it.

Matt Kata, who also played a few games with the Phillies once upon a time, was in the game for the Rangers at 3B. He was pretty terrible.

I was also at Padilla's start on Thursday. Fun stuff. He hit a batter and I started laughing. Sadly, I missed Millwood on Friday. It would have been pretty crazy to see a weekend of ex-Phillies starters, though, along with ex-Phillies Marlon Byrd and Kenny Lofton in the outfield as well.