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Wednesday, May 09, 2007

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Let the wheelchairs begin! Go Phillies. At least, I don't have to stay up late tonight for the results.

we should score 4or 5 off this guy

Game odds:

3:2 - Randy Johnson strikes out 12, gives up 2 runs.
4:1 - Jamie Moyer hits in 7th, ends rally.
6:1 - Charlie Manuel ejected.
8:1 - Pat Burrell walks thrice.
11:1 - Jimmy Rollins goes 0-5.
14:1 - Phillies score in first inning.
17:1 - Ryan Howard pinch hits, doubles.
24:1 - Brett Myers gets to pitch the ninth.
39:1 - Phillies hit three home runs.
56:1 - Time of game more than 3:20.

Has a 43 year old ever struck out 27?

at this rate were looking at 20 strike outs

Moyer goes yard. I have a feeling.

I said Nunez should be cleanup tonight. Cholly has no imagination.

The guy's 9 for 14 against lefties this year.

dysfunctional lineup...its been this way for 6 years now dating back to the beginning of the Bowa days. Too much reliance on lefties (Abreu, Thome, Howard, Utley). You cannot have the two power bats in your lineup bat one after another and be lefthanded. Ever wonder why we never come back when behind after the 6th inning. Cause we have Howard & Utley each getting 2 AB's against different lefties. We on the otherhand do not have a lefty in the pen except for Castro who cannot pitch unless up by 10 or down by 10! I think most people are really getting frustrated and this all has to lie on the hands of the phantom owners and their lackey Monty.

Players come & go, managers come & go, coaches come & go, even general managers come & go, but the only constants have been ownership with Monty, Harry & Wheels, and scouting department. I really don't think its Harry & Wheels although I think alot of people on this board would be more than willing to blame Wheels!

Yanks lighting up Tejeda in the 1st.

Wheels is hands down better then the guys in Arizona. Mark Grace makes Sarge look like he is the best in the Business.

Gotta love they way D-backs take advantage of their opportunities. Not sure that they've had anyone get to 2nd who hasn't scored.

This is painful to watch. Is it '97 or '07.

This Phils team is going to make a lot of highlight reels... for opposing teams pitchers.

9 K's through 4. Is Ricky Otero playing tonight? More later as to my thoughts on why this season is over.

I dunno, at this rate, you could make a case for Moyer for Cy Young. :-)

The two lefties in a row hasn't really been an issue, since Utley hits lefties at least as well as he hits right-handers. For years, however, the Phillies have had too many streaky hitters in their lineup. Lieberthal used to be the poster boy for this. He would hit .220 all year, then go on a torrid hot streak for a month & end up with respectable numbers which belied the fact that he was a miserable hitter for 80% of the season. Burrell is the same way and Victorino appears to have the same modus operandi also. Rowand too.

Also, I know the Phillies are always near the top of the league in runs scored but I've always contended it's a misleading statistic. The way they get to the top of the league in runs scored is by doing nothing for about 5 games in a row, then breaking out for 27 runs in 2 games -- usually against some pitiful team like the Nationals, which is starting their 4th & 5th starters.

Right, Bay Area. The run differential is a better stat compared to runs scored only.

It's very hard to watch this. The offense looks horrid against Unit.

anyone else have goosebumps?

I feel bad for Moyer...how many good games can he have left in him?

Above post reminded me of the Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock, a poem that should be eerily familiar for any longsuffering phils fan...

My attempts (which are terrible):

In philadelphia, managers come and go, talking of mike colangelo.

(Indeed, April is the cruelest month...)

For I have known them all already, known them all:
have known the night games, day games, twilight double headers.
Have measured out my life with coffee spoons...
...
Should I, after tastykakes and water-ices,
have the strength to force the moment to its crisis...
...
... To say "I am whitey, come from the dead,
Come back to tell you all, I shall tell you all" --
... that is not what I meant at all.
That is not it, at all.
...
Moyer is old... He grows old...
He shall wear the bottoms of his unis rolled.

Yanks lighting up Tejeda in the 1st.

this is problem with us only thing we can look at to make us feel better is wacthing former phils do bad since our team cant get past 500

Any chance Manuel will be fired after this futile trip? This team is lifeless and clueless, just like their skipper. Where is all this hard play for Charlie?? Spare me...

Helms is what .140 with RISP? Gimme a ph.

Well hot damn! Finally some good news in this game.

OK, I will eat my words!! Ryan Howard!! THAT WAS HUUUUGE!!!!

I will now shut up or the rest of this game, thank you Ryno.

OH!

great hr by howard, good move by charlie, lets see if the pen can hold it...or moyer starting the 7th.

Bay Area Fan - nice posts.

I totally agree with the lack of consistency with the hitters as they pad their stats on the weak links of teams.

Burrell and Rowand have had polar opposite hitting streaks, hard to believe Burrell's BA is .237 and Rowand's is .355 compared to the start of the season.

I think Burrell's career typifies Phillies teams. Under high expectations they disappoint and fail you but when there is no pressure they thrive and look impressive.

It almost appears like they do not have intestinal fortitude or will to win with the exception of Utley, Moyer, Hamels, Rowand, and Myers.

I say again, Bourn deserves a chance to play.

curt, I agree. Bourn has earned the chance to start once or twice a week in Left. Not like Burrell is doing a whole lot not to merit it.

I've had my issues with Manual's decision making... but I liked bringing Myers in the 8th. There's no reason he can't be a 2 inning closer.

That's got to be the first time this year we came from behind that late. For once it's the other team wondering what happened.

I believe tonight would be the first time all year we won a game entering or trailing heading to the 6th on the road....2nd time all year, i think the only other one was that Friday night home game against FLA

The Phillies were 2-12 when trailing after 6 coming into this game.

If you needed any moere evidence how bad the pen is -- here's our closer pitching with a 6 run lead.

Wow. Myers has some SWAGGER tonight. I think closing suits him.

Isn't that considered a save since he came in with a three run lead?

With this one win in AZ, cholly probably just saved his job,unfortunately lets see how we do against the cubs and brewers

As with most of their wins, I want to believe that I see signs of real improvement, that this will be the one to turn things around.
But I should know better. Howard's grand slam is just one of the many falsely inspirational moments that will keep me hanging on throughout what is destined to be another mediocre season.

But umm, yeah... big win tonight.

Myers did get a save. That is why he was pitching with a six run lead.

Someone said runs differential is a better stat than runs scored... runs differential tells you about the quality of a team overall and predicts win-loss record; runs scored tells you how good a team's offense is. And no, it's not "misleading" because it includes the runs we score against bad teams; those are games that count too.

Rev, Let us hope not. The day that Cholly is putting unnecessary mileage on his closer for an individual stat is the day the season is officially over. I choose to believe that it's because he didn't trust any of the other stiffs.

Man, I love listening to Mitch Williams on the post game. Re: Brett Myers--"He's not too bright, like me, so he doesn't think himself into problems"--with respect to his ability not to psych himself out when closing.

Marzano is a great guy, but I can't get enough of Williams' still-apparent '93 uglies attitude.

Just win Baby!

Glad to see another team's bullpen collapse as the Phils showed some life late in the game. 4-6 road trip wasn't ideal but not altogether terrible.

despite the badmouthing on this board about streakiness and not being an everyday player, I still think slick vic will continue to make sexytime explosions for the rest of the year.

Not really a fan of "sexytime implosions" when discussing baseball. But I understand what you're saying.

Of course, I write it wrong, but whatever, you know what i meant.

Tray,

A team's total runs scored means what it means. But, in the Phillies' case, it really isn't an accurate indicator of their day-to-day performance.

The Phillies have scored 160 runs in 34 games -- which is tied for 4th in the NL. That's an average of 4.7 runs per game (the league average is 4.42). But nearly 1/4 of their total runs (39) came during their 5-game win streak. Yes, those games "count" too, but the point is, when they aren't hitting like gang-busters, they usually aren't hitting at all. Throw out those 5 games and they're barely averaging 4 runs a game. And 11 times -- nearly 1/3 of their games -- they have scored 3 or fewer runs. So, while they may score a lot of runs over the course of a 162-game season, their typical day-to-day output is not very good.

Admittedly, I am focused only on the Phillies & haven't done any league-wide analysis. For all I know, maybe the same is true of most other teams. All I know is it sure does seem like they have a lot of games where their bats go completely silent. And 11 games of 3 or fewer runs seem like an awful lot.

I apologize for ripping on Howard yesterday about his weight I guess- huge homer. Moyer was clutch as usual-one of the few signing Gillick got right. Although they have a day off not sure why Myers pitched 9th. Great to see another bullpen blow up. The looks on Johnson's face was priceless after the howard HR.

Bay Area Phan - When you're talking about an average, the more numbers you throw out (they're called outliers), the more suspect the statistic. In your argument, you threw out 5 games - all during a winning streak. However, if you plugged all of this data into a scatter chart, you would see there are no real outliers in the data, except for maybe the one game that the Phils scored 11. The next highest output for a game is 9, which they have done 4 times now. (If they had scored 14 or more once, that would be a true outlier.) However, with a point spread of 10 (1 to 11 runs scored per game) for a 34-game sample, there's no real outliers. Basically, you want to include every possible number to get the most accurate statistic. All teams and players run hot and cold during the season - throwing out any kind of streak arbitrarily is just a standard way of sports writers to skew a statistic into proving a point so they can be controversial and prove a point. I'm just trying to explain statistical analysis - it's what I do for a living ... here in the Bay Area. Found any good Phillie bars around? Basically, not to trying to stomp on anyone's toes, but wanted to make a point on this kind of statistical malarkey.

Where the Phillies have just been horrible for years is hitting with runners on base - thanks for the four years of David "GIDP" Bell, Ed Wade, you schmuck ... I will never forgive this franchise for trading away Placido Polanco in favor of keeping the AntiChrist at 3B for so long ...

"Thanks for the four years of David "GIDP" Bell, Ed Wade, you schmuck ... I will never forgive this franchise for trading away Placido Polanco in favor of keeping the AntiChrist at 3B for so long ..."

A-FU&*ING-MEN.

Been saying that for years.

ajc, I'm just curious, but how do the Phils compare to the rest of MLB teams when it comes to hitting with runners on base?

statistically, it seems to me that over the course of several seasons things ought to average themselves out. Or, is tis team really made up of a bunch of "chokers", guys who really see a dropoff in performance when the pressure is on? Can this be measured?

Manuel got lucky with this win. He may stick around a little longer now. Too bad. I still believe this team will go nowhere with him at the helm. He is clearly overmatched in every single series the Phils head into. It was nice to see the Phils win, but a lot of changes still need to be made.

You all know I bash Manuel for every lame-brain decision he makes, but he did well yesterday...actually helped the club.

Pinch-hitting Howard was smart since the Arizona lefty wasn't ready in the 'pen.

Allowing Myers to get the 2 inning save was smart, since he hadn't pitched since Sunday and today (Thursday) is an off day).

I also bash No-Hit Nunez. If he can continue to keep his average .260+, I will now refer to him as Sometimes-Hit Nunez. Not as catchy I know, but hey, I give credit when it's due.

By the way, I say this after every Moyer outing- I love that he is on our staff!

By the way, I'm not jumping back on the optimism bandwagon right now. It was only 1 win. They need to show a lot of improvement over the remainder to the month before they start regaining any of my confidence. In my above statements, I only wanted to point out some positives, but don't be confused as to thinking I'm "sold" on this ball club because of one decent game.

AWH - Wish I could show the actual hard numbers, but I don't have easy access to do those numbers. However, how many times have you heard the phrase "leads the league in men left on base" associated with this team during the last five years or so? As someone who mostly gets to watch Phils games just on ESPN, TBS, WGN and FoxSports Bay Area, I can tell you that the rest of the league makes great pains to point out how woeful the Phils are in that statistic each time they come to town.

AJC,

To follow up on your post of yesterday . . . it's good to see I'm not the only Phillie fan around here. I can't say that I know of any Phillies bars in the Bay Area (unless you count Lefty O'Doul's, which is more of a baseball history bar). I think if we want a Phillies bar, one of us is going to have to open it ourselves. If you open it, I promise I'll be a frequent patron.

I won't debate a numbers guy when it comes to numbers. My only point was that, for a team that scores as many total runs as they do, the Phillies sure seem to have a lot of games where their bats go totally silent. Maybe they're not unique in that regard. I simply don't know. I'm just going by my impressions.

Hey Bay Area - never really spent much time at Lefty's - used to live closer to Baywatch. Ever been to Jake's Steaks down in the Marina? They have a couple of screens that in football season show PSU and Iggles games. I live clear cross town (and prefer the Cheesesteak Shop on Divis - they fly in the Amoroso rolls), but they might show Phils games there ...

It's funny you should mention the Cheesesteak Shop on Divisadero because I almost mentioned it too. I used to live around that area & ate there all the time.

Never been to Jake's Steaks & I moved from San Francisco to the East Bay about 5 years ago, so I don't get into the city too much anymore. But if they show Phillies games, I could probably be convinced to check it out -- at least if the Phillies ever start playing well enough to be worth a 90-minute round-trip drive.

Will have my brother check it out when a game is on - he lives not far away from Jake's.

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