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Monday, May 14, 2007

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Success- a sweep (obviously) or 3 outta 4. Anything less, is just more "ho-hum" Phillies baseball.

I have some optimism heading into this series too. Moyer usually does well against teams that haven't seen him in quite some time, and Milwaukee hasn't.

4 right-handers in a row is nice. We suck against lefties.

Barajas was a good one year move with a 162 Game Season coming up and no proven major league backstop. Padilla Abreu were perfect salary dumps, (one current, one arbitration)

Abreu was owed 2006:$13M, 07:$15M,
08:$16M club option ($2M buyout)

and is now batting .236 with one homerun a pro-rated 6+15+2 = 23 Million Dollar Savings

Padilla was signed and was paid and is owed
07:$9M, 08:$11M, 09:$12M, 10:$12M club option ($1.75M buyout)

and is now has a 1-5 Won Loss Record with a 4.78 Era and a 1.45 WHIP a 33.75 Million Dollar Savings

Robinson Tejeda was Traded for David Delluchi who signed with Cleveland and we now have picks 37 and 113 in the up coming 2007 baseball draft

http://www.philliesdraft.com/2007/2007PhilliesDraftReport.html

Gillick saved 23 Million on Abreu, and 33.75 Million on Padilla.

So would you like some crappy players in return or Save 56.75 Million Dollars and have the 37th and 113th picks in the up coming 2007 Draft?

Everyone fails to mention just what great players we would have gotten because noone offered them. Duh. The Yankees refused even to include Melke Cabrera now batting .226 thank you.

Gillick is a Genius for pulling the trades of these stiffs off at all. 56.75 Million and two nice draft pics - I'll take it.

Don't forget that the Brewers are playing against the NL Central Teams and the Dodgers are playing against the NL West.

I believe the Phillies would have a much better record in either of those division.

We got clocked by the Braves and the Mets who had started out strong out of the box while Howard, Gordon, Madson, and Garcia have been injured.

One item of debate that seems to have fallen through the cracks this season is that of new guy Michael Bourn. Unless I have missed something, he has yet to start a game with 37 played. On the other hand, Werth has started 7 I believe.

At what point does this situation actually begin to pose a risk of set back for a young player who could be getting ABs in Ottawa, but is instead riding the pine in Philly.

I like him, but it seems to me that if your going to have a guy around who isn't playing it should be some 30+yo organiztional filler like Coste, rather then a guy who might have a legit career ahead of him.

What is it that Charlie sees in Werth that makes him put him the lineup yesterday, and sit Bourn again?

Sir Alden has gotta be either Pat Gillick's mother or grandson.

"Barajas was a good one year move with a 162 Game Season coming up and no proven major league backstop."

In 550 games the guy is a career .238 hitter. You assert that the Phil's didn't have a "proven" catcher coming into this season, and that this is a good move?

True, Ruiz and Coste were not conventional "proven" players yet, but guess what. Barajas had proven over 500+ games that he can't play!

So you take playing time away from two guys that had a strong season in 2006 to bring in a guy for 2.5 million why? Because he has proven he can't play? That might be the dumbest thing I have ever read.

Hey, Seattle Stew Alden,
Barajas is dead wood (pun intended) at the plate, and he doesn't appear to be the defensive stud he was touted to be. His signing is indicative of Gillick's failure as the super scout that he believes himself to be. Ruiz right under his nose and he couldn't PROJECT a thing.

You foolishly reference money when when posting about the others. IT AIN'T THE MONEY, it's the inability to get anything of value in return. And don't throw draft picks out there - not with what has been Gillick's heretofore mentioned ability to evaluate talent.

I'm sure Seattle is a great guy, but so far he has done a mediocre job, and that's being generous.

SirAlden,

Has Gillick ever made a move that you DIDN'T like?

How about a little consistency and intellectual honesty to your analysis? Gillick did not SAVE $33M by giving Padilla away. That $33M is on a whole, new contract that went into effect after Padilla's Phillies contract expired. Had they held on to him, he would have taken the spot in their 2006 rotation that was occupied by Floyd, Madson, and/or Mathieson. Given the way Padilla pitched last year, it's fair to assume that, with him in the rotation, the Phillies would have won the 4 extra games necessary to make the wild card. And, when he left at the end of the year, they would have gotten a high compensatory draft pick -- which you seem to think is a great thing in the case of the Dellucci picks, but you conveniently ignore when it comes to all the other contract year trades.

Also, exactly how was Barajas a good one-year acquisition, when he's hitting .178 & the guy he replaced hit .328 last year? You delight in pointing out Abreu's and Padilla's present numbers but you fail to mention Barajas's shockingly bad numbers because they don't suit your argument.

Finally, if you're going to credit Gillick for getting the Phillies out of some bad contracts, don't you have to follow up by asking if the money has been put to better use?

Well he did save us a big fat $200k by letting Wolf walk and signing Eaton to replace him, nice upgrade there.

You can fault Gillick for a lot of things, but Wolf isn't one of them. He took a lesser deal just to pitch in LA. Wolf wasn't coming back, and it was a better career choice for him.

It's kind of hard to imagine the Phillies doing more for Wolf than what they did. They gave him a huge contract early in his career, oversaw his rehab from TJ, wanted to keep him ...

Barajas is a proven defensive catcher. Did anyone watch Ruiz (who I love) try to catch Garcia on Saturday? He is a little guy. He and Jarmillo could be a great combo.

Ruiz-Coste Defensively was not acceptable so Barajas was signed for one + years.

Alden, whatever they are paying you, they should be spending on scouting. Because your not fooling anyone.

i'm no scout but barajas seems pretty ordinary defensively to me.

SirAlden -- You said, "Ruiz-Coste Defensively was not acceptable so Barajas was signed for one + years."

So far, Barajas has thrown out only one of seven basestealers -- all while the guy is hitting a robust .178.

The knock on Coste's defense -- after the guy threw out two of MLB's best basestealers -- the Mets' Reyes and the Red Sox' Coco Crisp -- *from his knees* -- is nothing but Seattle Stew fiction smoke. Coste was esxcellent at blocking low pitches in the dirt last year, and perhaps the best indication of Coste's worth as a catcher -- the assessment of his catching by the pitchers -- was certainly in Coste's favor, with the sole exception of Myers. Coste was Lieber's personal catcher, and others -- including Hamels and Moyer -- went to Manuel and asked to have Coste catch them.

Also, this business of Coste not being an "experienced" catcher is hogwash -- Coste sometimes caught as many as 170 games in a calendar year -- including the minors and winter ball -- before getting up to the Phillies last season.

Finally, Sir Alden, you apparently forget that the Barajas signing was not billed as simply "insurance" by Gillick at the time it occurred -- Gillick said that he considered Barajas as the potential starter at the position this year, with Ruiz to spend a year learning as a backup.

The Barajas signing is indefensible.


I would anyone have wanted to pay Padilla 8-10 Million in arbitration? Hinestly.

Gillick arrived and every single person in the front office was anti-Padilla, maybe he could have stared them all down or threatened to quit. I think he decided not to expend capital within the organization, or the 33.75 Million allocated to Padilla, they were talking to his agent and knew about what it was going to cost to sign him.

I do not agree with many Gillick moves. But I recognize when moves are about the future.
Arm Chair GMs that we all are often forget 56.75 million here and 56.75 million there can add up to an organization being straigh jacketed as the Mets were.

Raise your hand if you want Abreu back for 23 million.

Raise your hand if you want Padilla back for
33.75 million

Raise your hand if your want Robinson Tejeda back and not have the 37th and 113th Draft Picks in the upcoming 2007 Draft.

Raise your hand if you can tell me a real offer that a Major League club had on the table that Gillick refused for Abreu or Padilla.

If you can raise your hand to any of these things then you can argue what Gillick did was bad. If you cannot and have things to say like " I wuddda coudda shoudda demanded the Yankees give us Hughes...you are just naive.

I'd gladly take Tejeda back for the two draft picks. Tejeda is a pretty decent pitcher right now, with a cheap price tag to boot. From the 2 draft picks, the Phillies MIGHT get one decent major leaguer 5 years down the road -- and that's only if they're really, really lucky.

I disagree, BAPhan. If the Phillies take, say, a power-hitting college outfielder with the 37th pick, unless they royally blow it (like they sometimes do) that outfielder probably defaults into the best outfielder in their system.

I didn't have a problem with the Dellucci deal. Tejeda isn't the future, and he's a marginal major league starting pitcher at best. Looch served a purpose. It was a decent deal for the Phils.

Remember BAP, in Sir Alden's magical universe (where the sky is purple and the grass is gold I suspect) our current low A team will be intact and putting up record numbers in AAA in two years. None of our A players will flop and a draft pick is worth ten #5 starters.

I am argueing with him, but I certainly hope he is right. My guess is that 5 years from now D'Arby Myers will be a 5th outfielder somewhere, a few of the pitchers will be bouncing around the majors, and the rest of the Lakewood roster will be selling used cars in Fort Pierce. But I guess anything is possible.

Forget Tejada, he's another name that constantly pops up on here like he's all that. He's not garbage, but he's another inconsistent pitcher we'd be praising one game, then bitching about for 2 games.

Lineups

Rowand in leadoff spot and JRoll 3rd. Dobbs starting at 1B and Ruiz catching.

Phils
1. A Rowand, CF
2. S Victorino, RF
3. J Rollins, SS
4. C Utley, 2B
5. P Burrell, LF
6. G Dobbs, 1B
7. A Nunez, 3B
8. C Ruiz, C
9. J Moyer, P

Brew Crew
1. R Weeks, 2B
2. J Hardy, SS
3. P Fielder, 1B
4. B Hall, CF
5. J Estrada, C
6. K Mench, LF
7. C Hart, RF
8. T Graffanino, 3B
9. D Bush, P

Alright, you guys probably have a point about Tejeda. And Dellucci did play well for most of last year, plus he was one of the catalysts behind their surge after the Abreu trade. I wouldn't have made the trade but, on balance, perhaps it was a fairly even deal.

Getting the 2 draft picks could certainly be a good thing, but I'll remain a little skeptical until we start seeing some decent results out of their recent drafts.

Once again, I break out the decryption software:

SirAlden
lajHrtol
lliSirad
ckllrisA
Aldllick
tapkcill
kcillPta
Pllickig
Pigkcill
pllickgi
PGillick

Or his shill. OTOH, maybe clout is right.

Alden,
In all seriousness, you need to start reading and responding to what other posters are actually writing, rather than engaging in your "Gillick is the second coming" argument. I'm actually starting to feel sorry for you, because you seem to lack the capacity to comprehend what people are 'saying' to you.

These argumentative questions you ask:

"Raise your hand if you want Abreu back for 23 million.

Raise your hand if you want Padilla back for
33.75 million

Raise your hand if your want Robinson Tejeda back and not have the 37th and 113th Draft Picks in the upcoming 2007 Draft."

are false choices. For me to criticize Seattle Stew for not getting more for Padilla is not the same as saying I think he's worth 33.75MM. The same is true for Abreu. Tejada is erratic, but there is no guarantee this organization will get anything as close to as good as he is in the draft (see Golson, Roberson, and almost the entire Ottawa roster of retread position players).

Besides, Padilla only cost Texas 4.41MM on a ONE YEAR deal. That was the choice. So, the real choice was/is: do you think Padilla's erratic 15 wins last year would have been worth 4.41MM? Would've meant the playoffs, maybe, and after he walked for the 33MM, the Phils would have another high pick. The point people keep making is that Seattle Stew let Padilla go for NOTHING. Dreck. Crap. Junk. The contract Padilla got after last year isn't relevant to that criticism, because the Phils wouldn't have had to give it to him. Think. Please THINK!!!


SirAlden: "56.75 Million and two nice draft pics - I'll take it."

So would I, if I actually got the $56 million. But I don't, so that does me no good at all. And, as has been noted, the money for Padilla's current contract isn't at issue here.
So let's see who the "two nice draft picks"-- which actually translate as a sandwich pick between rounds 1 and 2, and a low-third or high-fourth rounder -- turn out to be. Wow, the #37 and #113 pics. Let's see who those have been in recent years:

1998: RHP Michael Nanninni, Houston; OF Antwon Rollins, Texas.

1999: CF Jason Repko, Los Angeles; RHP James Barrett, Houston

2000: LHP Derek Thompson, Cleveland; C Yadier Molina, St. Louis

2001: LHP John Rheinecker, Oakland; LHP Rommie Lewis, Baltimore.

2002: RHP Stephen Obenchain, Oakland;RHP Josh Johnson, Florida.

Johnson, if he ever recovers from his arm injury, is clearly the best of this bunch; frankly, I'm surprised this many of them have made the majors (Y. Molina, Repko, Rheinecker) at all. But truth be told, all four of them wouldn't amount to anything like proper compensation for Abreu. Of course, I'm supposing here that Abreu will perform at something like 80 percent of his previous career level by the end of the season, and I'm also supposing that a GM who, receiving no offers of merit, might have gotten something for him in the overheated winter market.

Alby, your analysis is welcome, but you failed to note that many of those drafted were taken by organizations that seem to have much better track records at drafting players. At least their minor league affiliates are stocked with more potential MLB players. You would expect that with GMs like Beane, Jockety, Hunsicker...gee...couldn't the Phils have hired the last guy recently?

Ugh. Some really ugly swings tonight from the patchwork offense.

In Howard's absence, Manuel has apparenly elected to platoon Dobbs and Helms at first base and play Nunez every day at third. Not so sure that's the way to go. I realize you probably have to start him with Moyer pitching, but this has been the trend for well over a week. Nunez hitting left-handed is probably an easier out than Moyer, and I'm not trying to be funny.

Absolutely right, AWH. I was simply trying to find out what sort of talent is available in those draft slots. My quick take is "bench players." In general, I value draft picks more than many fans do, because I notice that the teams with good farm systems aren't necessarily smarter than others; they just stockpile more draft picks. As the pitchers on that list indicate, the key to finding good ones is to start out with quantity, not just quality.

DH: I wondered the same thing.

The other thing I don't get is Manuel hitting Nunez seventh. What's the reason? Catcher must hit eighth? At that point in the lineup, wouldn't you rather have the better hitter hitting with a chance to do something with men on, as was the case in the second inning? Maybe it's a minor quibble, but I don't see the reason for it.

AWH,

You're right about these other teams having better track records than the Phillies when it comes to personnel & drafting decisions. But I think Alby's larger point was that, except for Joe Johnson, who is already having serious injury issues, the guys recently drafted at #37 and #113 have all pretty much sucked. If even competently run organizations are missing with their 37th & 113th draft picks, what makes anyone think that our INCOMPETENTLY run organization will do any better?

In a typical major league draft, a team has done pretty well if it finds even a single starting caliber major leaguer from the entire draft. It's certainly nice to have a couple of extra picks in the early rounds, as it increases the likelihood the luck will go your way. But, when it comes to the major league draft, it's almost always better to have a bird in the hand -- especially when you factor in the time that it takes these guys to become major league ready.

Tejeda may not be perfect but, in absolute terms, the odds are very, very strong that he'll be a better major league player than either the 37th or 113th picks in the 2007 draft.

I agree, Alby. So, for a starting pitcher the Phils got 2/3 of a season from Delucci(he stunk the first 2 months), and maybe...maybe a bench player if they draft well - not a given with them.

does it really surprise you guys that nunez is getting so much playing time? really, he's been overused at 3B since bell departed and helms' play has made nunez look sadly viable. it blows my mind that they haven't tried out other options at 3B during the past 2 seasons (coste, king, a toaster), but at this point i am not surprised at nunez being trotted out there so often, it's the continuation of a trend.

Doesn't take a diehard fan to have a pretty idea on how this game is going to turn out . . . strong outing by Moyer yet the Phils can only scratch out a run or two against the fearsome stuff that Dave Bush is throwing. The Phils will get close late but the one of the combustible back-end relievers will blow the game wind open.

Sadly I think we are going to be seeing this a couple of times the next couple of weeks until Howard is back and Madson/Gordon come off the DL.

Good question on why Manuel insists on hitting Nunez 7th and not 8th. In the second half of '06, Nunez was a passable (no pun intended) 8-hole hitter because he took a fair amount of walks in addition to elevating his average to a pathetic standard (as opposed to downright laughable). He clearly makes more sense as an no. 8 hitter than Ruiz, who doesn't take many pitches.

Speaking of lineup mysteries...why is Rowand hitting leadoff. This might have been defensible when Rowand was scorching a few weeks ago, but he's quickly stumbling back to earth and his swing has rediscovered its usual holes.

This offense scores in bunches, or not at all. No one's really swinging a good bat right now. Hopefully Moyer can keep doing what he's been doing and keep them in the game. And hopefully they can solve Dave Bush; I don't want to hear for a second straight game that a pitcher had 'nothing' after the team fails to do anything against him.

Robinson Tejeda is your basic, hard-throwing young pitcher, who has control problems but has nonetheless managed to find some early major league success. His track record to this point is about like that of Horacio Ramirez, formerly of the Braves, except that Tejeda's numbers have actually been significantly better than Ramirez's.

I bring up Horacio Ramirez only because he was the guy the Braves just traded this past off-season to get Rafael Soriano, who sure would look nice in the Phillies' bullpen right about now. Gillick likes to point out how difficult it has become to pry relievers away from teams. If he'd had Tejeda, maybe he could have used him to pry Soriano from the Mariners.

Lilly did throw pretty well yesterday. Watching the Phils bat and Bush is just not that impressive. Getting shutdown by this guy is kind of pathetic.

Pat de Bat!

I said no one was swinging a hot bat, but I forgot Burrell. A homerun to right-center - his improved hitting approach is finally paying off.

About time. Total meatball with no velocity or movement. At least Burrell can still crush obvious mistakes pitches.

MG, you forgot that Bush wasn't done pitching. Getting shut down by a guy through 2 innings is not really time to panic.

Now they need to keep pecking away and can't give this lead back. Tonight was their best chance to win a game this series. Look up fifth starter in the dictionary and there's a picture of Dave Bush.

Not panicking Parker but the Phils have been awful on offense so far.

Not panicking Parker but the Phils have been taking some awful hacks tonight and Rollins looks like he is entering one of his patented 2 or 3 week slumps.

This ballpark is going to cheat Moyer out of more than a few points on his ERA. That first one to Estrada was a joke. Now it's up to the offense to respond again.

Moyer usually throws a curveball and at least one other variety of breaking pitch in addition to the changeup, but I haven't been seeing them tonight, and he's been going to that changeup well a bit too often. With 2 strikes on the previous batter Weeks, he threw two straight chnageups. An 0-2 changeup to Hardy was a fairly predictable pitch, and Moyer can't survive with predictable pitch sequences.

Kind of a quick hook from Yost here.

I would rather have Padilla than Eaton. That much I do know, considering Eaton's just an injury away from being a worthless 27 million and considering the guys track record the odds are he will be on the DL for an extensive period of time this season over him not.


Jason Bergmann had a no-hitter broken up in the eighth tonight. He and Shawn Hill look surprisingly good so far; I wonder if the Nats will sell them off, along with Rauch and Cordero.

You guys forget to mention that Gillick is running the draft, not Ed Wade. On the flip side, the "scouting" team is the same as under Wade, so who knows.

Looks like the gas has run out.

Padilla's a corona away from being worthless. Plus he's got his contract.

Guess we'll see when Howard gets back, and to a lesser extent Madson and Gordon. But right about now, it's tough to see the light at the end of this tunnel.

Geary is completely shot -- that could be the proverbial straw breaking the camel's back.
The center (i.e., 6th/7th inning) is not holding.

was victorino ever a pitcher in high school or legion ball or whatever? his arm is seriously made of gold.

He's much more than a straw, he's our only remotely reliable set-up man. If he should stop pitching well, we won't win very many games at all.

The sad truth, JW, is that they aren't underachieving. Especially with the bullpen injuries and the loss of Howard, this doesn't even look like a .500 team to me.

Gregory "Rico Brogna" Dobbs.

Nunez is the one man rally wrecker.

It is really sad when Nunez's at bats would be more productive as strikeouts.

Even the holy Coste can't save us.

Not one to instigate conspiracy theories, but did anyone notice that Dan Baker waited until the last possible second to announce Coste as the pinch-hitter, so as possibly to avoid a prolonged ovation? Coste, in my view, is a very tangible representation of the us-versus-them gulf between the fan base and management.

DH: I completely agree. It's just not there. You can't light a fire under something that isn't there to begin with.

Interesting observation, DH -- and certainly not beyond the realm of possibility.

It sure was good to see Coste work the count in red pinstripes again -- although probably only for a "limited time only."

Clay Condrey is throwing strikes.

This team just wants me to go to sleep... Man, what a boring ass game. Pop up after pop up, shotty relief pitching, and questionable line-up issues. Why do I watch this team again?

And yes, that was noticable on Baker's behalf with regard to the Coste announcement. Pathetic, just like this team...

Burn Baby burn!

Condrey always threw strikes. It's just that Manuel never noticed...

a-will, actually, Coste, assuming he reverts to only 90% of what he hit last year, may well provide more punch than Nunez and Dobbs. And certainly more consistency.

Based on wht he did last year (.345 vs RHP) I find it hard to believe he wont get at least one start against RHP, unless Chollie is either as stupid as some of you think (I disagree) or under orders from Seattle Stew to keep him out of the lineup.

Can't embarrass the Stew man, you know.

Victo Inferno!

Derrick Turnbow, fresh out of an audition for a part in the new Lord of The Rings movie.

Davethom: I think you have been watching Major League too much. THis Coste Conspiracy thing is ridiculous. What, does manual need to obtain a picture of Gillick in a leaopard dress to get this team fired up? Do you really think that the Management is that against Coste?

...glad I wasn't the only one who noticed that. It's almost as if a long ovation would have embarrassed the Phillies.

Turnbow's the guy the Phillies could have had for Lieber, right? Right, but the Phillies rather would take Myers out of the rotation. And they needed Werth instead on Mench. Another non-move that would have looked pretty damn good about now.

Yes so he could do that DH.

Parker, I'm the one one who brought up the late announcement on Coste, so direct your comments to the correct person. I'm not saying it was necessarily intentional, but I wouldn't it put it past the people who run this sad-sack team.

Don't get me wrong, I was clammoring for Turnbow as well, but lets not forget which team he plays for.

parker, with regard to coste, don't confuse "conspiracy" with "management's stubbornness"...

Nice, Utley! Thanks for waking me up!

yep, Parker - what Turnbow has done in the six weeks leading up to this game means nothing, since he's not doing well in this one. Rememeber also to keep monitoring Borowski and only pipe up when he blows a save. Great way to prove your point.

I see a light!

DH, whether you originated the comment about the announcement or not, the idea (Conspiracy) was not your's originally.

How in the *hell* can they send Nunez up here.

turnbow is looking like rosario right now...

Borowski's not good, period. This guy has some stuff at least. Dobbs is starting to look like a pretty good signing.

Can I take that last comment back?

Don't swing at the first pitch Chooch!!

DH, read previous comment. If Turnbow is not pitching for the Phillies then I don't have anything good to say about him. Besides, I would look like a fool right now anyway. I wanted TUrnbow as my previous comment suggested, but he is not pitching for the Phils. But even then, I was hesitant because this is the history of Turnbow right in front of us.

dobbs doesn't look bad...when he's starting and has regular ABs. for the most part, he's looked bad coming off the bench. that's bad considering his "real" role with this team.

Woohoo! That could have been a DP, possibly!

i think that we have to stop criticizing nunez's bat skills...

Damn, I'm impressed! You can't gun down Utley! Let's win this one!

oof...Fielder's Choice was not a good one.

Puny Nuni is *so* clutch

Helms is going to go DP on us.

i can't believe that they're hanging turnbow out to dry like this....

Everyone is contributing in this inning and everything is going our way... could the bullpen have a good day too?

I can't believe the Brewers are leaving Turnbow in there. He is all over the place!

Who knew the Geico Caveman could throw so hard?

Amazing piece of hitting by Helms. Anyone see this coming?

Helms almost goes yard! How do the Phils only score one there though?

if the "bullpen" is named Brett Myers, then yeh....

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