Phillies notes: 'Pat the Bat' becoming 'Pat the Pat'

When it comes to describing Pat Burrell these days, the most common phrase uttered is "he is what he is." Which is what exactly?

Burrell's biography will have many chapters. This still-unfinished part has "Man Without a Face" penciled in as the title. So far, it’s not very interesting. Here's a synopsis: "In 2007, Burrell perfected the art of the walk, while fan disapproval waned, understanding he'll never become the player they thought he'd become, while still providing a valuable service by getting on base."

Burrell's season hasn't made for any drama whatsoever. You can't lump him among the team's biggest problems. You can't give him much credit when they win. Nothing specific happened to make him the subject of today's post. Which is precisely the point.

If you’re starting to sense that Burrell – the millions of dollars he’s owed, the big-swing promise, the era he represents – is being swept under the rug, you’re not alone. There’s no desire – on either side – to make the situation better, even though he’s certain to play out string as Philadelphia’s left fielder through 2008. Manager Charlie Manuel sat him last season during the heat of a Wild Card race because he wasn’t giving them the best chance to win, but spring is a time of new beginnings, which is what Burrell has been given for two solid months with few breaks, more than some would have imagined. The results have been ... almost irrelevant.

Given better bench alternatives, as David Dellucci and Jeff Conine represented late in 2006, Burrell’s playing time might have been cut short sooner. Now, he’s being challenged by some hot hitters: "Dellucci Lite," Greg Dobbs, and "Conine Lite," Jayson Werth. Add to the mix Michael Bourn, who might have a brighter future than all of them, and Manuel has a couple bullets besides Burrell.

Yesterday in the Daily News, Manuel avoided the issue on whether Burrell’s job was in jeopardy. One begins to sense there’s no real desire to fix him this time, or give him many more chances to get going. After sitting out the last two, Burrell went 0-for-3 with a walk last night.

Sitting against left-hander Doug Davis Monday might have been the first sign of change, just as Wes Helms’ two gaffs in a game out west signaled the end of his tryout at third base. Tonight they face Randy Johnson, a left-hander, and if they’re smart, they’ll make "Pat the Bat" "Pat the Pinch Hitter." He's hitting .170 against the lefties.

Drabek placed on the DL
Phillies.com is reporting that last year’s first-round pick Kyle Drabek has been placed on the DL with an inflamed right elbow. The move is considered "precautionary," according to the report.

Phillies still interested in Percival
Detroit Free Press: "The Tigers had a scout at the University of California-Riverside on Tuesday, as former Detroit closer Troy Percival threw a bullpen session there. ... Those who know Percival say his loyalty to the Tigers could be a significant factor in his decision, but the Philadelphia Phillies have also been active in their pursuit."

Coste comes up big in Reading win
Chris Coste, who was optioned to Double-A Reading last week by his own request, was involved in scoring rallies in the sixth, seventh and ninth innings yesterday as the R-Phils erased a 4-0 deficit to win 5-4. Coste was just 1-for-9 since his demotion but came up with three hits yesterday.

Phillies sign yet another independent league reliever
Independent league reclamation projects now fill every corner of the Phillies minor league system as the team has followed the R.J. Swindle signing with yet another Newark Bear acquisition: 31-year-old right-hander J.J. Trujillo.

Trujillo was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Padres in 2000 and floated around their system for a while, earning a four-game cup of coffee with the parent club in 2002. Kansas City picked him up in 2004 and assigned him to Double-A Wichita for the entire season; it was his last action in affiliated ball.

This season with the Bears, Trujillo did not allow any runs in nine relief appearances, surrendering only four hits and two walks while striking out 11 batters in 13.1 innings pitched. He will be assigned to Double-A Reading. [Newark release]  [Baseball Cube stats]

Game chat: Phils try to avoid series sweep
Randy Johnson (2-2, 4.52 ERA) and the Diamondbacks go for their seventh straight win while Jamie Moyer (5-3, 4.18) and the Phillies try to stop the bleeding tonight at 7:05 p.m. ET. Mash your fists against the keyboard here, in the company of others.

Comments

[JZ]

What's the status on Howard? If he sits tonight, I think I'm done. But then again, I said that after the Mets sweep when Manuel stayed on as manager, when Myers went down and Manuel stayed on as manager, when fill in the blank and Manuel stayed on as manager.

But if Manuel sits his best hitter, hurt/early season slump or not, because the "match-ups" are better, I'm done.

For good.

Until next week.

[RSB]

Burrell is what he is: unexpectedly washed up well before his time. He plays like he's 39, not 29. His bat speed is a thing of the past, as is whatever leadership he was once thought to provide. I have never really blamed the Phillies for locking Burrell into a big contract, because he did look for all the world like he was going to be the next Schmidt for this franchise. In 2002, Burrell was a flat-out stud. He hit clutch homeruns, he was consistent from start to finish, and he had a little strut to him. Dave Hollins, finishing out his career on the bench that season, said Burrell 'definitely could have played on the '93 team'. It's hard to blame the downfall on the contract alone, but things have not been remotely the same since he signed it.

Last night in the seventh, with runners on first and second and one out when the game was still close at 5-3, Burrell took a 2-0 fastball right down the middle for a strike; he grounded into the double-play on the next pitch. The results of the 2-0 pitch tell the story of Pat Burrell in 2007 even more revealingly than the results of the 2-1 pitch.

[ae]

my favorite stat of Burrell's 2007 season: he has gone .270/.451/.514 with RISP (with only 7 SO in 51 PA!).

if you're looking for the textbook stat on why RISP stats are practically useless, there it is.

my prediction on Burrell's future: we dump him to Oakland for garbage and pay half his salary, and he goes on to win comeback player of the year as a DH in 2008.

[Tom Goodman]

Drabek on the DL as a "precautionary" move? Like Gordon flying to Philadelphia for his "routine" exam. Great.

[loctastic]

Pat Burrell is like my uncle. He's an ass, but he's family, we're stuck with him. Pat is just a member of our big dysfunctional Phillies family.

[Tray]

As Jason said, he still provides a valuable service by getting on base. Simply by not making outs, he helps our team score runs. Now it's true, the odds of he himself actually scoring on his walks are low because it usually takes a couple of hits to drive him in, but if runners are already on, his not making an out substantially increases the odds of those runners scoring. Sure, you'd rather that he'd drive them in, but walks aren't valueless. A few threads ago I broke down his 19 walks in the month of May and found that, if he had made an out in those plate appearances instead of walking, 12 fewer runs would have scored. For example, if there are two outs with runners on first and second, he walks, and the next guy up hits a grand slam (this has happened), his walk directly contributed to those four runs scoring. All that said, I have no problem with Dobbs starting for him as long as he remains so hot, but the notion that Burrell is this cesspool of wasted at-bats is simply wrong.

[MattS]

.170 against lefties? You really think Pat doesn't crush lefties over 47 AB's? Pat has struggled a little bit this year in terms of average and power, but he has walked more and sruck out far less than before. For the record, Pat's 2004-2006 line against lefties is: .296/.432/.526. That's 388 ABs. He didn't suddenly forget how to hit lefties. He just had a few hard hit balls get caught.

FYI, Nunez isn't a magical lefty bashing machine based on 30 ABs either.

[J. Weitzel]

MattS: Burrell's hitting well in your opinion?

[RSB]

"Simply by not making outs, he helps our team score runs."

"He just had a few hard hit balls get caught."

Ah, take comfort, Pat. You'll always have your rationalizing apologists.

[MattS]

No, not especially well, though he hasn't been a disaster. He should stick pulling the ball more because that's how he adds value-- a lot of homeruns to leftfield.

I'm just saying that picking on his 47 ABs against lefties and pretending that is worth analyzing is ridiculous.

If you look at his peripheral statistics, he's mostly been unlucky though. Keep in mind he's really only a .250/.260 hitter by skill level. He hit around .280 a couple times by accident, but he's really a .250/.260 hitter with the batting to be on base almost 40% of the time and the power to get about 60 XBH's a year. Not worth 13 million dollars. Maybe if he got to bat 500 times against lefties, he might be though.

[timr]

Didn't they try to get Burrell to wear contact lenses briefly during spring training? I have a vague recollection, but it seems like that should have been a bigger deal. Could a slight decline in vision explain his dramatic decline in production?

[Tray]

Well he seems to be seeing the strike zone well enough so I don't know how bad his vision could be. I bet you his batting average on balls in play is unusually low - I don't know where you find those stats but they're out there, I bet clout or kdon would know.

[RSB]

Matt, did it ever occur to you that Burrell was maybe a better hitter the year he hit .282? Why do you assume that was just a freak accident? I watched him that year, and in the years since, and it wasn't an accident. His hitting ability has declined. You indicate that it's merely a matter of bad luck if a player with a career average of .258 suddenly hits .228. Not necessarily. Burrell doesn't hit all that many balls with authority these days.

[MattS]

Fangraphs.com is great. From there, a little info...

His BABIP is .260, well below his career BABIP of .309--very indicative of bad luck. His BB rate is up to 21.9% from last year's 17.5%. His K rate (as measured as % of ABs, not plate appearances, so it's underestimated) is down to 24.7% from 28.4%. That's indicative of improved plate discipline and strike zone recognition.

His flyball rate is up a little and his groundball rate is down a little. That could explain some of the BABIP but probably very little. His linedrive rate is the same. His HR/flyball is down to 10.2% from last year's 18.1%. That's a bit of a concern. I would like to see him get a few more ABs before I worry about that too much, but I would guess he's not hitting as many flies to left, where he hits them out more. Pat hits his homers in bunches, and I would be floored if he deviates much from the .256/.381/.492 that I projected before this year.

[MIKE]

I see Benjie Molina of the Cards broke his wrist and is out for 6 weeks. Lets trade Barajas to the Cardinals - I don't care if we even get anything back for him! Then we can call up Coste and have a Ruiz/Coste platoon and will have Coste's bat available for PH when Ruiz starts.

[RSB]

"That's indicative of improved plate discipline and strike zone recognition."

To me, it's indicative of tentativeness.

[JZ]

I hate to wish ill on another team (even the Cardinals), but darned if that Molina news didn't make me smile.

The sooner Barajas goes, the better. Send him to Newark for compensation, at this point.

As for Burrell defenders... seriously? Like all the old Phillies from the late 1990s to present, the ship has sailed. The saddest part was Jason's line about Burrell in left "through 2008."

I can't stomach the thought.

[MattS]

RSB, the reason I attribute it to luck is because the only thing that sticks out about his performance in 2005 was his BABIP. He hit maybe a few more linedrives, but he struck out as much, walked as much, and hit as many flyballs as 2006. If he significantly changed his approach or swing, or he became significantly weaker in 2006, wouldn't you think something about his performance would stand out other than how many balls that weren't homeruns became hits? Would he strike out 28% of the time both years? Hit 31% groundballs both years? Pat Burrell has never shown an ability to hit .341 on balls in play. The best evidence of no change in approach/skill/technique is probably that he went back to normal.

[JB]

I think JD Drew & Scott Boras should not be overlooked in the Burrell Surreal Legacy but their part symbolizes our overall problem in Philly.

Once we missed out on Drew and all the uproar surrounding it (because the Phillies were thought to be cheap losers) the Phillies could not afford not to lock in the next franchise savior.

Why is it the good ones want to leave or never come at all but those we wish to leave cannot or are painfully given away.

Sounds like the same answer to both questions, a dillusional front office/management mentality and reality.

[Dave X]

Tray, Burrell's career graph for BABIP :
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=949&position=OF&page=7&type=full

This year he's at .260 which is likely to improve, but given his career norms and his lack of speed its not necessarily known by how much. The biggest outlier is, this shouldn't suprise anyone, Aarown Rowand, who is primed for a significant regression.

[bay_area_phan]

Not to get off topic here, but I want to follow up with Clout & Ae from the last thread on Dobbs. True, he's much older than you would like your prospects to be. But, at 29, he could easily have 5 or 6 good years left in him (assuming he is indeed good, which remains to be seen).

Second, being older than the competition might mean a lot down in Single A, where many of the players are as advanced as they are ever going to get. But it means less so at the higher levels of the minors, where the general caliber of play is much higher than at the lower levels.

Third, batting average is sort of the Bobby Abreu of statistics. It was overrated for a long time but, now that everyone has read "Moneyball," it has become underrated (oh wait . . . that makes it the OPPOSITE of Bobby Abreu, but you get my point). Walks are great; don't get me wrong. But a walk is NOT as good as a hit because it doesn't usually drive in runs. You need only look at Burrell to realize that OBP is not a definitive measure of productivity.

Finally, Dobbs' power numbers weren't too good in the minors but they were good in spring training & they have been good this year. Homeruns are the one statistic, more than any, which often start to go up as a player gets older. Not saying Dobbs will be Ryan Howard but he might be a 20-25 homerun guy if he played every day.

I'm not ready to sign Dobbs to a multi-year contract & annoint him our starting left fielder for the next 5 years. But I have a hunch that, if given a chance to play every day, he would put up numbers worthy of a starting corner outfielder. I'd like to see him given that shot for the near term.

[MattS]

I agree Rowand is likely to regress, but maybe not by so much. His BABIP is a ridiculous .361-- far above his career mark of .320. On the other hand, his BB rate has shot up to 9% from 4.3% last year and his K rate has gone down from 18.8% to 16.1% (which underestimates the difference given their K rate is K/AB rather than K/PA which would make the difference look larger). Sometimes that is just a fluke, but Rowand's Pitches/Plate Appearance has gone up and stayed up-- from 3.73 to 4.09. That is a statistically significant difference at this point in the year. Maybe he's changed his approach and could be a .290/.350/.470 kind of hitter. Then again, I'd trade him while he's at .326/.395/.508.

[RSB]

BAP: I don't think there's any doubt Dobbs could be a 20-25 HR guy if he played every day, and he's also shown a good ability to drive in runs. The problem is, he's awful in the field. He can play a lot of positions, but he's no good in any of them. At this point, I'll agree it makes very little sense not to platoon him with either Burrell or Helms because both aren't any better in the field. But to project him as a regular for the future is not something I'm enthusiastic about. Dobbs strikes me as the type of guy who might be an everyday first baseman on a bad team in the American League.

[Tray]

Rowand's been regressing all month. I don't see why Rowand for Lidge is such a bad idea - you'd move Victorino to center where he belongs and make up for most of Rowand's production with Dobbs and Werth. Even if he has become a .290/.350./.470 hitter (and I doubt he has, this month he's a .282/.333/.408 hitter), those two guys can do about as well. Then you'd have Lidge who could close until Myers is back and would make a great set-up man for Myers once he returns. Since they demoted him from the closer spot, he's really returned to form.

[J.R. King]

RSB is absolutely right. With two on and one out, our big left fielder let a 2-0 fastball go right down the middle. Pat Burrell does step into the batters box and look for ways to drive in runs. He tries not to make an out.

[fljerry]

Bay-area - I agree with ya. When (if) we trade Rowand at trade deadline I can see Dobbs our right fielder. Only problem then is we are stuck with Nunez and Helms at third. If we are in the wild card race by trade deadline then maybe we find a third baseman and some relief. Again Rowand has to be either signed new contract or traded, and that goes for Lieber and Garcia. Hate to see these guys go at end of year and get nuttin. (draft choices probably for some though but you never know where or what you get)

[J.R. King]

Here's another strange thing about Burrell: His relationship with the fans is the complete opposite of every other Philly athlete.

Does anyone remember the fans' reaction to the first year of Burrell's slump (or should I say decline)? All season, crowds would cheer and try to pick him up hoping he would snap out of it. I have never seen Philly fans more patient.

Meanwhile, Pat really likes it here while every other touted Phillies star has counted the days until he could leave (See, e.g., Rolan, Scott; Wagner, Billy).

[clout]

RSB, bay phan: I certainly agree that we should play Dobbs until he cools off. As for him being a legitimate everyday player with 25 HR power I can only say there's absolutely nothing, and I mean nothing, in his background to suggest that.

Re: batting average. You're probably right that it is overrated and OBP is underrated post-Moneyball. But the fact remains, the best stat to measure offense is OPS. Batting average alone has too many flaws (as does OBP.)

[Tray]

Not to be too cynical but I think Burrell likes it here, J.R., because he's pretty much it as far as young white male celebrities go. I mean, they even had a section in the Best of Philly issue of Philadelphia magazine about the "Best Clubs To Meet Pat Burrell." If he went to a bigger town he wouldn't be nearly as big a deal.

[clout]

MattS: Excellent work on the Burrell BABIP. As in the case with the vast majority of veteran players, his final numbers will be close to his career averages and your projection of .256/.381/.492 looks like a good one.
Bottom line: Rowand's May 30 stats and Burrell's May 30 stats will look very little like their Oct. 1 stats.

[curt]

clout -- I ask again, do you believe the Phillies should be trying to sign PtB to an extension?

[ae]

I have to admit that I really like RSB's description of him as "an everyday first baseman on a bad team in the American League." that's spot on - he's the poor man's Dmitri Young. that's not a bad thing as long as he's cheap, he's on a hot streak, and we have other options. but a Dobbs/Werth platoon next year is cover-your-eyes bad...

[RSB]

Clout, I know that there's nothing in Dobbs' previous experience to suggest he's a 20-25 homer guy, but you could certainly project it out from his stats this year. The guy clearly has power, and I'm not inclined to say it must be a fluke because he previously hadn't showed much. Some players don't develop greater power until their later 20s. I know it confounds the 'reverting to mean' sabermetrcians who want to believe they can predict anything based on past performance, but players are capable of reinventing themselves, or at least aspects of their game, as their careers go on.

I think if you threw Dobbs out there for 150 games, he'd put up Rico Brogna-type numbers. But Brogna was also a terrific fielder. Dobbs can hit but possesses no other dimension. I like him as a role player only.

[clout]

curt: No, if it were me I would sign or trade for somebody better. Where I differ from most on this board is on trading someone you don't like for nothing in return (i.e. Abreu, Padilla etc. etc. etc.) If you can't get equal value (or better) then you don't make the trade. I don't think the Abreu and Padilla trades were good trades for the Phillies, which puts me in a small minority.

[ae]

RSB, come on - it's 90 AB. last year Chris Shelton had 10 HR and was slugging .783 after a little more than 90 AB, and he ended up the season with 16 HR and a ticket to Toledo.

and I can't tell your tone - are you saying Rico Brogna numbers are good, or even decent?

[Tray]

RSB, you could also project JJ Hardy as a 50-homer guy. We know he won't be one though.

[bay_area_phan]

RSB/Clout: No doubt, Dobbs' defense is terrible. But if you stash him in LF, I doubt his defense would be any worse than Burrell's. As for his offense, I'm not making any projections; call it more of a marginally educated hunch. My marginally educated hunch says that, if given 350 ABs this year, Dobbs would hit about .290 with about 15 to 17 homeruns and 75 RBIs. IF he posted those numbers -- and I realize that "if" carries a lot of caveats -- then I think most of the people on this board would concur that he is a perfectly viable option in LF next year.

[clout]

RSB: I doubt we'll ever find out because unless he winds up with a really terrible team (maybe the 2008 Phils) Dobbs isn't getting 550 ABs. It's worth noting the man you project would hit 25 HRs in the big leagues has never hit more than 13 in the minors.

[bay_area_phan]

I wasn't a Rico Brogna fan, but Dobbs' batting average & OBP should be considerably better than Brogna's ever was &, whereas Brogna played a reasonably important defensive position, Dobbs could be stashed in LF.

Ok . . . I think I've said my piece & I'll shut up about it. If I write any more posts on the subject, I'll be to Greg Dobbs as Davthom is to Chris Coste.

[curt]

clout - I see - wasn't sure if your respect for some of PtB's stats meant you actually liked the guy as a player.

I think Abreu and Padilla are more accurately described as "dumps," not "trades." At least that's the way I understood them. I was OK with the 1st, not the 2nd. Decent arms are precious, no matter what head they're connected to.

[ae]

I would not concur that a .290 hitter with 16 HR is a "perfectly viable option" for the outfield, especially if he's substantially below-average defensively (even Burrell at least has a great arm). basically, you're talking about a bad version of Jeff Francoeur: same weaknesses (average BA, low OBP), but with less power, much worse defense, and much older.

[ae]

I have the feeling that most of the people who think Dobbs is a real, full-time major league player also thought that Wes Helms would be a real, full-time major league player.

how'd that work out?

[The Doctor]

Did anybody hear about this supposed interview Eskin did yesterday with someone who is a "friend" of one of the Phillies owners? I heard it was very revealing about payroll and how Charlie Manuel was actually hired as the manager when they signed Thome. I'm sure you can't put too much stock in it, and I just heard it 2nd hand. If you heard this and have details let me know.

[bay_area_phan]

I said .290 with 16 homeruns in 350 ABs. That projects to about 22 or 23 homeruns in 500 ABs. You don't think Jeff Francoeur is a viable major league outfielder? He may not be a superstar but he's a lot better than a lot of starting corner fielders, including ours. Oh wait, I said I was going to shut up on the subject.

[clout]

curt: Ah, that's wehere we disagree. I don't believe in "dumps." I think they're stupid, laughably stupid in the case of a team that makes as much money as this one does.

[Jon]

Unbelievable! No Howard again tonight! And Rowand back in the lead-off spot with Rollins back to the #3 hole! Uneffingbelievable! Fire Manuel now!!

[clout]

bay phan: I guess where we disagree is on the stats. I don't think there's any chance Dobbs would put up those stats in 350 ABs, even facing only righties. But I do like him on the bench with stretches of starts when he's hot.

[Jon]

I guess I should say no Howard again against Johnson, but regardless this team has no prayer with Manuel at the helm. He continues to make crap decision after crap decision. Line-up source, Daily News Live.

[bay_area_phan]

Howard left yesterday's game with an injury, so this isn't necessarily a case of Cholly being bone-headed. You'll have to wait until the game starts to see Cholly being bone-headed.

[Billy Mac]

Lineups

Phils
1. A Rowand, CF
2. S Victorino, RF
3. J Rollins, SS
4. C Utley, 2B
5. P Burrell, LF
6. W Helms, 1B
7. A Nunez, 3B
8. C Ruiz, C
9. J Moyer, P

Diamondbacks
1. E Byrnes, LF
2. C Jackson, 1B
3. O Hudson, 2B .
4. M Reynolds, 3B
5. C Young, CF
6. C Quentin, RF
7. C Snyder, C
8. A Callaspo, SS
9. R Johnson, P

[Jon]

Maybe so bay_area_fan, but if he was hurt wouldn't have been a lead story on Daily News Live?

[Jon]

Maybe so bay_area_fan, but if he was hurt wouldn't that have been a lead story on Daily News Live?

[fljerry]

Everybody here says how bad Dobbs fielding is. I only remember him playing once in outfield and did he play that bad? He has only played 3rd a few times and did he actually play that bad? Where is all this stuff coming from that hes a bad fielder?
Hes played first most of the time and I don't remember him playing bad except for the bad decision of throwing home in lieu of first base.

[Mike H.]

Billy Mac, I thank you again for your daily service to this blog. Having the lineups ASATAP is great. Thanks.

[laramie]

Good to see Reynolds back in the lineup for the D'Backs. That shot he took from Medders while trying to field Bourn's bunt looked pretty bad. From our vantage point on the first base line, he didn't even appear to be moving for a good 60 seconds after the play. Scary.

Jon, Howard definitely looked hurt after the awkward play at first, and it's totally defensible to give him the night off. Why force him out there, against Randy Johnson no less? If anything, with the Phils players' unfortunate recent history of aggravating injuries by hiding or playing through them, I'm willing to applaud cautionary moves.

This is by no means our most advantageous pitching matchup of the series, but I don't think they'll sweep us at home. I'm thinking the Phils win a close one tonight.

[curt]

Wow. You look at that lineup and think the the Phillies have little chance to score a run, let alone win the game. #3,4,5,6 might all be good for Ofers. But maybe Howard will bring another grannie off the bench...

[Jon]

Fair enough. I am surprised though. I don't see the Phils winning tonight. Maybe they will surprise me.

[Billy Mac]

The Diamondbacks are the type of team that Moyer generally has success against. I have a good feeling about tonight's game.

[curt]

Billy Mac -- you're right that this is a good matchup for Moyer. Maybe he can toss that CG shut out tonight.

[bathtubhippo]

ahh, jimmy in the 3-hole, where he really got some nice swings earlier this season. wait, what's that you say? jimmy's offense went into a tailspin when he was hitting third? hm.

and of course no scorching hot dobbs in the lineup just because ol' cholly can't bear to have his bat against a lefty.

[Alby]

To clarify on what some have been speculating about: OPS is good for a quick'n'dirty view of a player's ability, provided you revise a bit for position played and home park. But OBP is more valuable than SLG, according to every analysis I've ever seen, despite what some here believe about the ability (or lack thereof) to drive in runs. Of course, none of this takes into account a player's (PtB, e.g.) lack of brains for the game. That is to say, when you might only get one pitch per at bat to hit, you have to swing at it. This is why players think far more highly of a guy like, for example, Joe Carter, who seldom walked but also put his bat on the ball and got runs in whatever way he could -- especially sac flies. Burrell doesn't take pitches because he digs the accolades of sabermetrics freaks -- I doubt he even knows what they are. But it's been four years now and he still doesn't seem to understand that in RBI situations, he will not get fastballs to hit once he gets deep in the count. The reason Jim Thome excelled (before he got hurt) was that when he saw a fastball close to his hitting zone, he was swinging, because he realized he wasn't likely to see another one in any given AB.

[CJ]

Frankly... I have a hard time complaining about the lineup management when the team is leading the NL in runs by 15 despite not having MVP Ryan Howard for most of the year and enduring a black hole of production from Pat the Bat for much of the year. It seems like he's getting plenty of production despite the amateur lineup maker complaints on this board.

Manuel's had his issues this year, but, for the most part, putting a productive lineup together hasn't been one of them.

[fljerry]

Alby thats extremely well thought out - wonder why the hitting coach can't come up with this - it really sounds logical.

[CJ]

fljerry... who says the batting coach hasn't? He can't swing the bat for Pat.

[bay_area_phan]

You've almost got to laugh at that start

[Crazy Jon]

WTF? 1-0 already?
Prediction - we lose the wild card by 1 or 2 games to the Diamondbacks.
These three games will be the difference.

[CJ]

Wow, Crazy Jon... you really know how to take doom and gloom to a new level ;-)

[Crazy Jon]

"I see Benjie Molina of the Cards broke his wrist and is out for 6 weeks. Lets trade Barajas to the Cardinals - I don't care if we even get anything back for him! Then we can call up Coste and have a Ruiz/Coste platoon and will have Coste's bat available for PH when Ruiz starts."
I would insist on a keg of Natural Ice in exchange for Barajas - that would make hearing the phrase "swung on and missed" a whole lot better to take.

[Crazy Jon]

"Did anybody hear about this supposed interview Eskin did yesterday with someone who is a "friend" of one of the Phillies owners? I heard it was very revealing about payroll and how Charlie Manuel was actually hired as the manager when they signed Thome. I'm sure you can't put too much stock in it, and I just heard it 2nd hand. If you heard this and have details let me know."
- I made the same points during this year's slow start. It should shock me that they still keep Manuel as the manager long after they traded away the guy who clamored for him in the first place. However, since the FO only cares about selling seats and they keep drawing 42,000 for Dollar Dog Night - no incentive for them to make a change.

[davthom73]

Coste is 2 for 2 with an HR and 2 RBI's tonight playing first base for the R Phillies.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_05_30_bowaax_reaaax_1

[RSB]

Alby, good analysis on Burrell, especially the contrast to what makes true RBI men like Thome and Carter.

If Dobbs stays healthy the rest of the way, he's going to hit close to 20 homeruns for this team. Of exactly what value that is, I don't know - I'm more impressed with his RBI total - but it makes little sense to say, well, he's only had this many at-bats or well, he's never hit more than 13 in the minors. Consider the amount of playing time he'll continue to get, consider the ballpark, consider the swing and the power it's presently generating. Even in a part-time role, he's going to surpass Dellucci's power production, by far.

I wasn't suggesting that Brogna-type numbers in an everyday role are desirable. Brogna was an average hitter with a great glove, which made him a moderately above-average player in his prime. Without the asset of a glove, Dobbs would be strictly average as a regular. He'd be more valuable in a platoon role or as a spot starter.

[SJ-Mike]

I didnt hear the Eskin show. Id rather stick pins in my eyes. I did hear Big Daddy and a caller discussing it this morning. The basic point was that Thome was promised that Cholly would take over as an incentive to sign here. If its true its not that surprising except that the guy is gone now and we are still stuck with him.

[JZ]

I'm thrilled that Howard is out of the lineup. It means I really can save myself more heartache this summer by rooting for this Manuel-run mediocrity.

Is Howard hurt or not? He's a grown man and this sit him against hard lefties crap is just that. And Johnson isn't even Johnson anymore.

Christ.

[bay_area_phan]

It's a little hard for me to just say that Dobbs is a platoon player, because we have absolutely no idea whether he can hit left-handers as well, or nearly as well, as he hits right-handers. The good left-handed hitters can.

Also, even if Dobbs struggles somewhat against lefties, it does not necessarily mean that the Phillies have a right-handed hitter on their roster who would likely fare better. Jayson Werth has ripped left-handers this year, but that's a sample size of only 25 ABs. For his career, he has hit a meager .256 against left-handers. With that kind of average, I'd take my chances with Dobbs. If Burrell is the other half of the platoon, it's a much closer call.

But the point is, there's no way to even intelligently discuss the issue until we have a reasonable idea of whether Dobbs is even capable of hitting left-handers. And we'll probably never find out because, even when Dobbs is on fire, Cholly takes him out of the lineup whenever there's a left-hander on the mound.

[JZ]

*Not* rooting. Oops. With that error, I fit right in with the manager.

[Billy Mac]

rsb, Dellucci is an interesting comp for Dobbs. Dellucci didn't start showing power till age 30 either. Dobbs has a nice level swing and the ball jumps off his bat. He's proving to be a pleasant surprise. However, I am still not convinced he can hit a curve and he really struggles when pitched inside -- as do most hitters. Add that he hasn't faced lefties, so we really don't know if he can handle them either.

[fljerry]

Dobbs got a hit last time he faced a lefty

[Crazy Jon]

Leadoff runner stands on 2nd with no outs and they can't move him.
Classic Phillies.

[curt]

Sweet work by your 3-4-5 there, Cholly.

[Jon]

Yawn.

[RSB]

Insult to injury: MLB.tv switched to the Arizona telecast in the fifth inning. That doesn't help the mood a single bit.

[Tray]

You know, Pat the Bat/Pat is the only reason this isn't a perfect game.

[Crazy Jon]

No he's not - Vic reached on an error in the 5th.

[Tray]

I thought it's still a perfect game if someone reaches on an error. Someone reached on an error against Hamels before he blew his perfect game and it seemed like the announcers were saying it was still a perfect game. What are the Diamondbacks thinking taking Johnson out? I assume he'll still pitch the seventh now that we got the double play.

[Ben Keeler]

tough matchups against the Giants coming up. Almost makes this a must win....Johnson is out so lets see what happens.

[attytood will]

Well, at least this one's going to be over quick...this time last night it was like the 3rd inning.

[Crazy Jon]

No longer a perfect game if an error is committed - would have still been a no-hitter, though.

[Steve Jeltz]

Perfect = perfect (i.e. no one get on base by any means).

If I remember correctly, the only thing that kept Terry Mulholland's no-hitter from being a perfect game was an error by Charlie Hayes.

[Sad Panda]

Man, above .500 was fun while it lasted.

[Jon]

Yup, the Phils still suck...

[Crazy Jon]

I guarantee that these 3 games will come back to haunt us at the end of the season.

[fljerry]

After homer and double there was no reason Cholly should leave him in - bad managing

[Mike Cunningham]

It is absolutely... AMAZING... Amazing... that Charlie has absolutely NO FEEL for when a pitcher is DONE.

Sure the first homer was by byrnes was a on a good pitch. But he was tagged with that double. You take him out then.

Horrid. He's absolutely HORRID.

[curt]

Now, we'll probably get to see the guys who should have been in the game touch up the Ariz. BP for a couple of runs.

[Crazy Jon]

How come every decision this manager makes is the incorrect one?

[Crazy Jon]

Cholly should start pulling George Costanzas = whatever he would have done, do the opposite.
Has to work better than this.

[Billy Mac]

Reverse jinx. The Mets, Phillies, Orioles and Tigers are the only teams this season that hadn't been shut out.

[Jon]

26-27 come the end of May...

"It's important to get off to a good start..."

Wherever is the accountability??

Wherever is the urgency??

Fire Charlie already!!

Send Dubee and Smith packing too!!

[bay_area_phan]

I'm pretty much ready to start trading the whole team, except for Utley, Howard & Hamels.

[Jon]

Sounds good to me. Although J-Roll can stay on my team.