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Tuesday, April 24, 2007


Jason, they've scored 20 runs in the last two games with 32 hits.

Thanks. Had it reversed.

Time for your early assesment of Shane Victorino as a full-time right-fielder. His defense has been superb and he's been hitting lately, but with no power. Thoughts ...

Baseball Tonight did a brief breakdown of Howard's swing '06 vs. '07. As much as I can't stand Steve Phillips, the videotape was rather revealing.

The speculation about him getting a little "Burrell-esque" in opening up early was easily identified in the slow-mo replay.

I was one of Vic's biggest defenders coming into this season, and I have to say he has not disappointed (with the exception of trying to steal third that one time).

I think that the Phils are in a great position here if Rowand stays hot and Vic keeps plugging away at close to this rate we could see their value rise and hopefully move one or the other for a RF with some pop, or a legit RP.

As Clout has pointed out on more than one occasion his numbers don't translate to an All-Star RFer, but he is playing within himself, his arm is looking better than advertised and he is stealing bases. I'd say he could turn into a first rate CFer and leadoff man if he becomes just a little more patient at the plate.

I would have no poblem moving J-roll back to 2 in the order, make a couple of those solo-shots 2 run shots in the process.

when andruw jones is patrolling in center next year victorino will be the perfect right fielder for this team.

i agree with yt - other than that brainfart trying to steal third victorino is fine. his arm is sick.

this is the big moment of truth for Manuel, IMO. his virtue as a manager is supposedly his ability to deal with hitters, and if he can't get Howard straightened out, what's the point in keeping him around?

you can't ask for Victorino to do much more than he's done so far. the only negative has been his baserunning blunders, but hopefully he's over that. with Rowand's incredibly hot start (second highest OPS+ on the team, after Rollins), that side of the outfield hasn't been the problem it looked like at the beginning of the season - but you have to be worried that if/when those two regress to the mean, it'll really hurt an offense that has struggled to find consistency.

Vic has had weird season. One of the reasons I like him so much was because he had a lot of pop in his bat. My concern was plate discipline. Well so far, it's been the exact opposite.

Also, saw this from last night:

"The Phils are playing well now because the hitters got hot, Myers has stabilized the bullpen and they are playing teams with less talent."

Myers? The Phils 3-game winning streak has exactly zip to do with Myers.

One thing about "stabalizing the pen" is that their perfrormance has a lot to do with the defense behind them. Compare Sunday's game with the first Mets debacle. In the latter game, Geary blows the game because of J-Roll's errror, while on Sunday Geary is bailed out by a fantastic play by Vicotrino and Ruiz.

Just looking at results, we see a more "stabalized" pen, but these outcomes had as much to do with the SS and RF.

Again, "correlation" vs. "cause."

Jason, nice work-in of the "Everybody Hits!" guy. I miss hearing him on the telecasts. He was great!

The wins haven't had anything to do with Myers, but at the same time, I wouldn't be in any great hurry to change anything.

i thought i heard someone in cinncinatti yell "everyone strikes out whooo hoo!"


Anyone care to venture a guess on how hard the league hits Tori Hunter?

According to the rules, fake cheating like this is more serious then real cheating like sandpaper in the glove, or HGH in the viens.

Go figure?

At very worst, Victorino is Scott Podsednik without the base-stealing chops but with a little more power and much stronger arm. I'd take that, but I think he's better than the Pod Person.

Assuming Manuel doesn't play him into the ground--as it stays warm, the little guy is going to wear down a bit--I think he could put up something like .290/.350/.430 with over 100 runs scored. around 30 steals, and Gold Glove caliber defense in right. I'd prefer him to play CF with a real bomber in the corner, but at that level, and if Rowand somewhat keeps it up (say, .280/.340/.470), they're fine.

YT: A gigantic fine, definitely over and above the value of the champagne. But no lost time.

Vic is having a very fine three weeks of baseball. Comparatively, he is outperforming Francoeur in right field. Unless he embraces the role of moving J-Roll up a few bases, I expect him to continue at a slightly above league average rate.

great , outfield assist last night at home,by shane, i see the phillies have 6 OF Assist for the seson rowand with 3, shane 2, P.B. 1 not sure how the stacks up against the rest of the league,but encouraging no. also suprised to see that after eaton scored on j-rolls triple shane actuallly took the first pitch!!!!!(kind of a no-brainer),work that count shane !!i think there was still only 1 out when shane was up but eaton had to be winded, but all turned out good, great game all around!!

I was all over Victorino ten days ago, but obviously he isn't as bad as I was claiming then. He is erratic as hell, but he does some things pretty well. He plays an amazing right field, he puts his bat on the ball, has occasional extra-base power, he makes things happen. He gets a lot of funky-looking hits, but because of that he doesn't have prolonged o-fers. I guess my main reservation with him is that he seems lacking in fundamentals and/or instincts and reminds me of a life-sized bobblehead doll on the field. My conclusion at this point is that we may be able to *live* with him as an everyday player, flaws and all, but I wish there was a better backup option than Jayson Werth in case his game starts to lag.

"The wins haven't had anything to do with Myers, but at the same time, I wouldn't be in any great hurry to change anything."

We'll see. If Lieber pitches like he did in 2005, and Eaton/Moyer continue to pitch okay, then Myers in the pen might work out.

However, if Lieber pitches like he did in '06, and Eaton's ERA stays north of 5.00, I'd be in a big hurry to change things.

Random thoughts:

I know no one will admit that Lieber is just being showcased for a trade, but I can't help but think that the Yankees have been calling about him (or Myers).

I feel it’s too early to make a call on Vic as an everyday player. My gut tells me he's going to be pretty streaky throughout the season. We'll see. Unlike others on this site who can marshal statistics to further almost any claim, I am led almost entirely by my gut. My gut is, however, quite substantial.

Also, just wanted to say I love the term "Burrell-esque."

Got to see last night's game on the tube. No. 42 did pretty good for the Phils. I think he got 20 hits. I went to Holy Spirit High School in Absecon, NJ and we had Chris Ford wearing no. 42 for the basketball team. He went on to play for Villanova, the Pistons and the Celtics.

I was looking at an old sports section this morning and read where former Phillie Pete Incaviglia will be inducted into the college baseball HOF this July. Good for him. I always liked Inky.

Let's hope the winning ways continue. We've got to get above .500. The Houston Astros radio broadcasters were promoting last night's game as the rubber game of the three game series started last week. In that sense, the Phillies did something unusual last night. They won "rubber" games on back to back days! Pretty cool.

I just want to take a minute to address a dumb-ass comment, apparently directed at me, to wit:

"For the record: Adam Everett is not, has not been, and will never be worth 7 runs in any game ever for all time."

Agreed, CJ. If only that's what I had said. What I wrote was that if Everett had picked those two easily reached singles in the 5th (or was it 4th?) inning, the game "would have been a nailbiter instead of a laugher." So what I said was that instead of a 3-run lead at that point, the Phillies would have had a one-run lead, making the last few innings a different scenario. I wrote this because the discussion was about whether this modest winning streak was due to the Phillies' improvement or the opposition's lousy play. Only in your imagination did this become "Adam Everett being worth 7 runs." A little hint for you, sport -- if you're going to pick fights, quote your opposition correctly.

ribbies - i would love to believe lieber is being showcased for a trade. i really hope that's the case, but i don't know for sure though.

I'm luke warm on Victorino's progress. I am glad to see that he's not a strike-out machine and hasn't become the equivalent of the outfield version of Abe Nunez, as some seem to think he would. His bat thusfar is decent. His lack of power isn't disappointing as much as his lack of extra base hits (stretching singles into doubles, etc.) I guess I was hoping that Davy Lopes would have had a bigger impact already. The base stealing still leaves quite a bit to be desired.

I honestly think that the only reason that Vic isn't getting the same accolades that Rowand is getting is because more was expected from Victorino. In all honesty, they're very similar players right now (just getting on base via singles with some cheapies thrown in).

I've been a big Victorino fan but am willing to admit he's probably overachieving at the moment. It would be huge for the Phils if he hit .300 for the season, but I think .280 is more likely. I like the little things about his game (speed and defense) that can't always be quantified.

Anyway, Lieber is not going to the Yanks until Clemems makes a decision and that's at least a month away.

Willard, I think Rowand has a good bit more power than Victorino does. I agree Vic's speed will boost his doubles (and triples), but Rowand can reach the seats with some regularity. His 162-game career average is 16 HR, so 15-20 (considering his home park) is a reasonable expectation. Victorino would be overachieving to reach 10.

kdon: Did I say Myers had something to do with the 3 wins? Or did I say he's stablized the pen? Fact is, since Myers move to the pen, the pen has performed far better.

Good point about Clemens. I'm just saying I would be worried if I was a Yanks fan - all these good a-rod homers just going to waste.

There is a whole nuther question of what we would want to get from the yankees. I'm not really sure.


"Just looking at results, we see a more "stabalized" pen, but these outcomes had as much to do with the SS and RF.

Again, "correlation" vs. "cause."

I agree. It's what I have been posting for months, and why I was against a Rowand/Linebrink deal. I'll bore you all to tears and say it again:

Bill James: "A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense."

Nuff said.

dajafi: And Chooch might hit 35 HRs, Howard steal 25 bases and Hamels go 35-3!

AWH: Then you support trading Utley and Howard?

clout, pray tell, why would I (or anyone) want to trade Utley and Howard?

If you're trying to pick a fight by infering I stated something I did not, let's have at it.

Any talk of the Yankees trading with the Phillies is a little ridiculous. Who are they going to give us? Melky Cabrera? They wouldn't give up Hughes or Cabrera in the Abreu "deal", so why would they consider giving any decent talent away now? I'm still wondering what "inside sources" meant when they said that other teams would've have given us better prospects for Lidle alone.

Victorino has gotten off to a nice start be he is still miscast as a 2-hitter and a full-time RF. He has nearly no power and doesn't get on base enough if his average dips to .270-.280.

Still, if Victorino manages to hit .300 and finish the season with a line of .300/.350/.430 season, then Phils' fans should be overjoyed.

AWH: Well, if it's all about defense, they (and Burrell and Helms) are the weakest links, no?

Speaking of the OF, I haven't seen a single thing from Werth yet that has shown me he is capable of really contributing to this team.

Hard to really make any kind of analysis on Werth's offensive contributions since he has only had 20+ ABs in the past 2 years. Plus, it would help if Cholly would actually only start Werth against LHP. Just foolish move here on Cholly's part.

The single thing I am most disappointed is Werth's defense. He has supposedly sold being an upgrade from Dellucci and I just don't see it all. Werth's has an average arm at best (maybe a little better than Dellucci) and his range is below average. There really is a pretty big defensive dropoff from Victorino to Werth.

So far, Werth has been the classic Phils bench veteran pickup. Doesn't really do anything particularly well to help this team (average, defense, speed). Plus, he was dirt cheap since he was coming off a sever injury.

At Dobbs can play multiple positions even. Werth really is only a corner outfielder and an emergency catcher (insert laughter here).

I love Vic and think he is going to come into his own this season.

Defensively, he is amazing. Offensively, being an everyday guy now will help him settle in at the plate and get on base more so he can rack up those swipes.

Can I start the petition for Shane's new nickname to be "Slick Vic" ?


The Flyin' Hawian is just to good, can't be displaced.

Alby... it wasn't addressed to you specifically. It was addressed to the repeated concept that Everett's absence was a big deal and a potential difference maker. It's just completely untrue. I get to see a LOT of Astros games being down here in Leezy-anna (they are the western part of the state's adopted team). You weren't the only person repeating that statement.

I'm not picking a fight... so don't take it so personally and since I didn't quote anyone I couldn't have quoted anyone indirectly.

The Phils destroyed the Astros yesterday in just about every phase. Adam Everett makes little to no difference in that equation.

While we are speaking of nicknames, I move that Jamie Moyer be referred to as Tasty Coma Wife, in honor of the Scrubs character of the same name.

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