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Friday, April 27, 2007

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Wow. Words of wisdom from John Marzano. I never saw that coming.

Is John Smoltz a Hall-of-Famer? I say yes, in fact I was thinking about all the players right now that are close to Hall-of-Fame status.

1. John Smoltz
2. Tom Glavine
3. Greg Maddux
4. Randy Johnson
5. Craig Biggio
6. Ken Griffey Jr.
7. Sammy Sosa
8. Mariano Rivera
9. Trevor Hoffman
10. Alex Rodriguez
11. Pudge Rodriguez
12. Mike Piazza
13. Barry Bonds

Players that will be there soon:
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Derek Jeter
3. Curt Schilling (depending on how long he sticks around)
4. Frank Thomas
5. Gary Sheffield
6. Jim Thome
7. Vlad Guerrero
8. Ichiro Suzuki (depends on how voters look at him)
9. Chipper Jones
10. Andruw Jones
11. Pedro Martinez
12. Alfonso Soriano
13. Roy Oswalt
14. Roy Halladay
15. Johan Santana
16. Jeff Kent

Then of course there is the superstars that just started:
1. Ryan Howard
2. Chase Utley
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Albert Pujols
5. Joe Mauer
6. Jose Reyes

Marzano also convinced me that Werth has a lot of talent and should be a solid contributor (before the season started).

I'm thinking that Manny Ramirez is already pretty much a sure thing. The guy is possibly the best pure hitter of the last ten years.
Big Hurt is close too, but his injured years may cost him. His #'s are close to Manny.
Utley? I like Utley, but HOF? Not too sure about that. The guy is in his late 20's already. He needs to keep this up for a long time. He is close to his prime already.
Jeter, alas, will get in since he has all those lovely intangibles. And the damn rings. Too bad, because without the rings, we do not have this conversation.

Ed- Jeter is going to end his career with 3000+ hits, sure fire Hall-of-Fame credential unless of course you bet on your own team (ahem, Charlie Hustle).

Only because Utley is a 2nd baseman did I throw him in the young talented list. If he would maintain production for the next 8 years or so and play until 40, he'll go down as an all-time great at 2nd.

yeah, utley's jumping the gun about 8 years too soon. manny is pretty much in, though. other than making it to 500, what else can the guy do? he's got a career average over .310 and a career ops over .1000. anyway you slice it, he's awesome. and he's only 35 next month.

Damn guys- I didn't call Utley a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer, or even say he was almost there, I simply say he's a young superstar that just started.

That's a good list, GM. Obviously, it's too early to say for the 3rd group but it could happen for Utley if he ends up being like a 10-time All Star. That's very possible given the lack of other stars at 2B at the moment. But still, too early to tell on that group.

It's the middle group that is most interesting. My test for guys like that is if they got hit by a bus today, would they make it in? For Jeter, Thomas, Sheffield, and maybe a few others I'd say yes. For the most part, I'd say no with varying amount of years needed to get there. I hate to think of Andruw Jones as a HOFer but barring injury he'll likely get the numbers to make it.

Still, overall that's a pretty good grouping of where they all stand.

Thanks Jeltz, and I love your jherri curl!

Carson, nice list. I would probably include Todd Helton on the may be there soon list. And maybe Nomar.

Billy Mac- I considered both of them, but Helton seems to be stuck right now, and he's a first baseman in a long list of greats.

Nomar because he played SS for a long time helps him in my eyes. Injuries really derailed his success.

Helton will never put up the aggregate numbers to make it. On averages he's good but he must have not came up until he was a little older because I believe he's not even close to 2000 hits. And he's been slowing down for a couple of years now. I'd say Thomas is a near lock, he's about to get 500 homers, is a career .300 hitter, has the seventh or eighth highest OBP of all time.

Smoltz should be a sure-fire HOFer. His win total is only as low as it is because he was in the bullpen for four years - and he was an elite closer, at that. No doubt he's in. I'd say Ramirez, Jeter, Thomas, and Martinez are locks to get in - but I think it's still too soon to tell with Oswalt, Halliday, and Santana. I have doubts about Sosa getting it, at least for a little while. I also tend to doubt Soriano or Kent will make the Hall.

Are they playing this game, or what? Any word?

If the HOF voters consider Ichiro's splendid career in Japan, then also consider Julio Franco has 3943 career base hits in regular season summer pro baseball. I think that ranks him 4th in that category all-time behind Rose, Cobb and Aaron.

Nice list, Carson. It will be interesting when some of these players become eligible. Obviously, many of these careers are still going strong, so it's tough to tell. Someone like Jim Thome would have a tough time convincing me he's a HOFer, even though he could finish his career with over 550 homers. Mike Mussina isn't on your list, and I agree with that omission.

Palmeiro has 569 homers (9th), but no rings, no MVPs and scandal. Will Big Mac (7th) get more votes the second time around? I have a hunch "yes." Sammy Sosa is 5th all time in homers (!) and enjoying a comeback. What do they do with these players?

Three players I'd move from "almost there" to "there" are Schilling, Pedro and Jeter.

Think Schilling's in already? I can see it I guess, since he's been great for awhile and a big game pitcher, but could go either way.

Kent's got great numbers, but his rambunctiousness may keep him on the bubble.

Utley's got a loooooonngg way to go.

I think the strong showing of Jason Giambi in the post-steroid period of his career will help to legitimize some of the steroid-stigmatized players like McGwire and Sosa. Giambi is the first guy who people can definitively look at a before and after and see that the power is virtually the same. But if this isn't the case, I'll certainly shed no tears for these players.

I don't know about disregarding homerun totals of sluggers who happened to play in a big power era. Thome is no Dave Kingman. I think he would have had a good career in any era. He's been on winning teams, been very consistent, and generally hit for good average. I think he's a sure HOFer.

I think Ichiro will not make the Hall for the same reason that Minnie Minoso's not there - with the exception of Jackie Robinson (and justifiably so in his case), the BBWAA doesn't really make exceptions for non-MLB stats. of course there's enormous differences between the Negro Leagues and NPB, but I still think that's going to hurt Ichiro - and the fact that he's never really been seen as a dominant player except in '01 and '04 doesn't help either. (an All-Star every year, sure, but leadoff types are traditionally undervalued unless they're power hitters too.)

what I think is key for his Hall chances is managing to get into a good situation after leaving Seattle. in a favorable ballpark for a high-profile team, he could all of a sudden get back his status as an elite player. Boston would probably be perfect (I'm thinking of how Mike Lowell's thrived there - Ichiro could probably hit doubles on command in Fenway), but I doubt he wants to play second fiddle to Matsuzaka.

RSB/Jason, I think Thome's an interesting case - talking to friends in the spring, I was really doubtful of his chances. but he's putting up another ridiculous season in Chicago, and at 130-140 games a season as a DH he could play until he's 40, which would certainly put 600 HR within reach. add in his good reputation, and a lot of voters are going to see him as the anti-McGwire/Giambi, an untainted 90s slugger.

Some good points there ae. A guy like Thome could get voted in to rationalize why the steroid guys do not.

I agree with RSB regarding Thome. I think he will get in based on his HR total, but his rep as a non-steroid guy in the steroid era will help.

I think Ichiro will make it in eventually, he is a .330 career hitter and has six gold gloves. He won't rack up the total hits other guys can, but if you look at defense, stolen bases, etc. that will help his cas. If he has another 5+ .300 seasons, I think that will be enough to do it.

If Thome can hit 550+ homeruns, he's in. He's an all-around great guy.

If Ichiro manages 2000 hits, I would think he gets in. Remember his defense is hyped too, and that helps.

Steroids piss me off! They way I look at the 90's is- assume everyone was juiced. Now that's ridiculous, but that's how I make it all make sense in my mind, that way all stats stay equal to be from the power era. Therefore, McGwire better get voted in. He was pure power, one of the best homerun to at-bat ratios ever.

Personally, I hope that Palmiero, Sosa and McGwire don't get anywhere near the HOF.

I'm not comfortable enough in dismissing Sosa, Palmeiero, and McGwire over supposed steroid use. Do I think they did it? Yes. But we don't TRULY know who juiced and who didn't, so I look at all stats equally despite what we "speculate" to be the case with each players' validity.

I'd like to through Bonds in my group above, but he was a great player before the steroids era. I wouldn't care if he wasn't voted in at all, however. Especially since he turned me down for an autograph when I was a kid.

Come on GM-Carson, don't be so naive. As a big baseball guy (like we all are), I don't like my personal ban of those guys, but f'em. We KNOW Palmiero did it and he lied to Congress about it.

Beard- I'm not being naive, if anything, I'm admitting many players did steroids (other than Sosa, Raffy, and Big Mac) and therefore it's very difficult to determine the legitimacy of stats from the Juiced ERA. I can't sit on an omnipotent pedelstal and point fingers at the guilty and grant validity to the pure. Can you?

*By the way- Bonds hooked me up with a signature on his rookie card when I was a kid at the Vet.

IMO, what they did were what they did. You can't go back and retract it. You can't change the record books. The Hall of Fame should be the place that remembers and celebrates the past. It should honor the past achievements, no matter what cloud they were conducted under.

Pete Rose should be in the Hall. And McGwire, Palmeiro, Sosa and Bonds should get voted in. You can't deny what they've accomplished, tainted or not.

What did you have to do for Bonds to sign it Carson?
If they took steroids or not should not be a factor in HOF voteing. Was it against the rules? There is no way of knowing who did and didn't take them, so you can only look at the numbers. Anything else is playing God.
Now I don't believe that steriod users are good people or even ethical, but the Hall is full of Bad Individuals.
Any record Bonds gets will always be hollow in my eyes.

I know Helton played in Colorado, but how can someone with a career .330 average with over 1.000 ops be excluded from the hof ? He will also finish his career with over 300 hrs and 2,000 hits. Is there anyone comparable that is not in the hall ? Agree he is not there yet, but I think he is on his way.

6 players in mlb history have higher career ops than Helton : Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, Bonds, Pujols, and Foxx.

"I can't sit on an omnipotent pedestal and point fingers at the guilty and grant validity to the pure."

Carson - I agree with you. But I do believe McGwire's omission from the Hall would be justified, as he would be a very borderline candidate in the first place, and it is clearer with him than most that he was involved with enhancement substances. On the whole, or at least where the Hall is concerned, I'm less inclined to judge Bonds and Palmeiro because I think they would have been great players with or without the drugs.

aren't 'roids against US laws? I'm sure many many more players took 'em, but not all of them are close to HOF standards. We're talking the cream of the crop here who played us for a fool.

Lineups

Rowand moves up to 6 hole with Helms sliding to 7th spot. Ruiz catching tonight.

Phils
1. J Rollins, SS
2. S Victorino, RF
3. C Utley, 2B
4. R Howard, 1B
5. P Burrell, LF
6. A Rowand, CF
7. W Helms, 3B
8. C Ruiz, C
9. F Garcia,P

Fish
1. H Ramirez, SS
2. D Uggla, 2B
3. M Cabrera, 3B
4. M Jacobs, 1B
5. J Willingham, LF
6. C Ross, RF
7. M Olivo, C
8. A Amezaga, CF
9. A Sanchez, P

Too bad most people don't back-track on this site, but it is "kind" of necessary for punks like me who don't always get to read BL every day:

I am surprised at how lax everyone here is. I personally hope for the all the 'roiders to be shunned from the hall, unintentional causalities be damned! Keep Junior Griffey out of the hall and see if he won't open his mouth! Spurn a sure-fire non-roider like Juilo Franco (This guy played for so many teams, he probably saw everything! And who knows if he used or not?) or Biggio or Maddux or Vizquel and extort them. They kept Pete Rose out of the Hall for BETTING?! Keep 'em all out and exercise the one thing "we" the "people" can directly control in Major League Baseball. I mean, there was no rule for testing, and other than in the court of public opinion--ie, HoF Voting--how can we shame them adequately? How can we ever get to the truth? I want to be able to look my kids in the eyes when I tell them about the players I saw in my youth. It shouldn't even be looked upon as extortion, What does Griffey owe Bonds any way? My dad tells me all the time about the one chance he got to see Clemente play.

Sheff, Raffy, Thomas, Sosa, Manny, Thome, Clemens, Joey Bell, Pudge Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez...Hell, anyone who played with Canseco in the early 1990s on those Oakland/Texas teams--From McGuire to Ruben Sierra, and maybe even Kevin Brown or Kenny Rodgers...Ever wonder about Puckett, sure did die early for a baseball player? When I look at pictures of these players in their rookie seasons, or just when they were young, the change looks so similar to Bonds. Clemens bulks up so much! Thome didn't used to have the tree-trunks he had in PA. Pudge lost a good 40 pounds of beef since 2003. Manny always made me wonder. And please don't look down with scorn on me for Puckett, inexplicable stuff happens, but massive heart attacks when you are forty-five after a lifetime of athletic "training?" Other than these bits and pieces of circumstantial evidence, we the public can never know. So when Bonds breaks the record, he might get some applause, but if they send him to Cooperstown, I don't know what I will do.

I'm glad we don't all think like you, Valjean. Once you start speculating, there's no end, is there?

Thanks for some good conversations fellas, much enjoyed.

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