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Thursday, April 12, 2007

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I'm sure Iwamura's going to cool off, but I really wanted to see him here. I thought Gillick's total lack of interest in him is one of his more underrated missteps. maybe you don't outbid the Devil Rays, but with our absence of any minor league depth, I think you have to at least give him a serious look.

Tejeda looks like he's going to be as inconsistent for Texas as he was for us...

I brought this up a few threads ago but in my opinion Iwamura + Decent Bullpen arm > Helms + Barajas in terms of dollar for dollar value for the Phils.

I do regret not going after Iwamura, I thought he went rather cheaply to the Devil Rays. I wasn't so sure after his rough start during spring training but he has proven here in the early going of the season he belongs over here. It a shame, he would have been a nice fit in the phils lineup, he can hit, he's good defensively, and he get steal a few bases.

I doubt that Iwamura continues his hot streak let along puts up really good numbers this year. He probably will give the Devil Rays something like .280 with 15 HRs. Kind of like Joe Randa-type season at 3B without quite as high an average.

Not bad but I am still optimistic that the Phils are going to get slightly better production from Helms.

I'm glad you did this, Jason. While I love the Phils, I am also a baseball fan.

In my fantasy league Verlander went late and I scooped him up. I think many were afraid after his performance in the postseason. He's been terrific thus far.

As far as Iwamura - I kind of agree with Gillick on this one - how do you know? Do you want to take a chance on a guy who has never played over here? I actually think Wes Helms is going to hit over .300 with a little power. I like his approach. Will he be better than Iwamura? I don't know, but at that time Helms might have been a better gamble and didn't cost a prospect either.

One thing I think is great as a baseball fan is that Piazza is off to a torrid start as a DH. While I can't stand the team he will always be most closely associated with, I've always like him. I'm glad it is working out for him.

As much as this next comment will hurt - you gotta respect what Schuerholz did with the Braves. The bullpen is incredible and Hudson is back. Signing McCann was a good move as he is a pure hitter. Why didn't we pick up Estrada? He's off to a great start as well and he wanted to play here.


the problem with just comparing Helms and Iwamura using offensive output is that Iwamura was considered an excellent defensive 3B in Japan, and Helms is really not very good.

and so far, Helms hasn't looked like he'll hit for average OR for power. there's absolutely nothing in his history that should make anyone think that he can do either. (you can't look at last season as a guide - he never had to worry about fielding a difficult position, he came on almost exclusively in late innings (128 of 278 PA after the 7th), and his numbers plummeted when he faced a pitcher more than once (1.009 OPS the first time, .814 the second, .587 the third or more).) I realize it's early, but he's looked almost as bad as Barajas. I don't think there's a chance in hell he hits .300, and more than 15 HR will be a surprise to me.

I was hoping for Estrada, as well.

adding, obviously you don't know how he'll perform in the states. that's why you scout him. the Phillies didn't think he could hit for power (and Helms can?) - this a guy who's averaged over 35 HR a year in 2004-2006. I don't think they seriously scouted him.

and like I said, I think he'll cool off. but I think he'll still hit something around .280 with 15-20 HR, good OBP, and good defense - basically Kenji Johjima (whose NPB stats were similar) with better OBP. I don't think Helms will do any better.

I realize I'm hijacking this thread with a Phillies-centric argument. my apologies...

"One thing I think is great as a baseball fan is that Piazza is off to a torrid start as a DH. While I can't stand the team he will always be most closely associated with, I've always like him."

The Marlins?

Great idea Jason, I think it might help some of us to cool down a bit and enjoy the game as a whole. Last night I alternated between the Phils game on MLB.TV and the Sox on the radio (stupid blackout restictions). Real good night of baseball.

The A-Rod thing is a great chance for fans here to get a perspective on a villified player. If you asked mos beerleaguers what they think of A-Rod, I imagine they would say, "oh, he's great, one of the top two or three players in the game." But go to New York, and the guy is treated like the plague. On the FAN 660, half the callers were saying the team would be better off without him!

On Imaruwa, another great thing is that he would have helped diversify the lineup, getting a LH contact hitting speed guy in the sixth hole instead of another slow, righty would have been great. What was the posting fee, $5M?

I think Iwamura and Helms will have similar offensive years, with Helms having better power numbers but maybe a lower average. But I've seen Iwamura make some incredible defensive plays. So I'm with ae in terms of overall value.

Plus, I think he has a bigger long-term upside than Helms. And signing him would not have cost the team a prospect, not sure where that idea comes from.

$4.55M posting fee. he's making $1.8M in 2007, $2.4M in 2008, $3.25M in 2009. $4.25M ($250k buyout) option in 2010, can increase to $5.25 with his PA.

in comparison, we are paying Helms a $500k signing bonus, $2.05M this year, and $2.15M next year with a $3.75M option ($750k buyout) for 2009.

Some Phillies fans are retards. A poll on Phillies.com asks "Who gets your MVP vote so far"

Burrell- 12%, Howard 36%, Rollins 12%, and Utley 40%.

Are you kidding me? Burrell has been the best so far, with Rollins a close 2nd and Utley and Howard not doing much at all.

A-Rod is no surprise whatsoever. He'll win the AL MVP and make things real difficult on the Yankees (and their finnicky fans - I know, "Pot meet Kettle"). He's very similar to Burrell in that he is what he is. He's going to put up numbers and expectations will mount. As the expectations mount, he's going to put up the same numbers and disappoint people. An amazing phenomenon. When dealing with Fantasy Baseball, these guys are gold mines. No one cares what they did in any single "big at-bat." It's what you do over the long haul that counts. Disclaimer: I took A-Rod in the first round.

BTW, I know we're only 5% of the way into the season and we keep throwing out the "it's still early," but when exactly am I allowed to start gloating about Pat the Bat and my prediction that he outshines Ryno this season? I'm still driving that bandwagon. It's getting more and more crowded by the day.

A-Rod is no surprise whatsoever. He'll win the AL MVP and make things real difficult on the Yankees (and their finnicky fans - I know, "Pot meet Kettle"). He's very similar to Burrell in that he is what he is. He's going to put up numbers and expectations will mount. As the expectations mount, he's going to put up the same numbers and disappoint people. An amazing phenomenon. When dealing with Fantasy Baseball, these guys are gold mines. No one cares what they did in any single "big at-bat." It's what you do over the long haul that counts. Disclaimer: I took A-Rod in the first round.

BTW, I know we're only 5% of the way into the season and we keep throwing out the "it's still early," but when exactly am I allowed to start gloating about Pat the Bat and my prediction that he outshines Ryno this season? I'm still driving that bandwagon. It's getting more and more crowded by the day.

I doubt that Pat the Bat will "outshine Ryno this season" but it is good to see some good offensive production from Gimpy to start the season.

In reading the past few BL threads, I sense that the honeymoon period is over for Gillick and he may have overtaken Cholly as the Phillies management figure fans would like to see replaced. In the virtual BL world, Carson replaces Gillick and Coste replaces Cholly as player/manager. We'll add clout as head talent evaluator with complete charge of the farm system.

I was pleasantly surprised by Eaton's performance after predicting doom and gloom for last night in a prior thread.

WOuldn't PIazza be most closely associated witht the Dodgers and then maybe the Mets? Btw I have him on my fantasy squad (the aptly named Schmitty Perms, based on Schmidt's mid 70's fro) and he is tearing it up. If he stays healthy he could have a yr like Frank THomas did last yr.

LF - Eaton is just as likely to pitch like last night as he is to turn in the 4.2 IP,
7 ER from his first start. Might as well get used to it.

We'll get another Eaton/O. Perez matchup next Monday on national TV. It could get ugly.

Eaton/Perez, I live for this.

Wow, I can't wait to see the over/under on runs set for that game. Truth be told, Eaton's season is going to average somewhere between start #1 and start #2. That's assuming he stays healthy. Hopefully, it's slightly closer to the start #2 Eaton that we saw, but I'm dubious.

14 runners LOB and a win. All in all, I think that's about what we need to expect from this team. Their recent history of coming through with runners on base certainly doesn't bode well in the expectations department. Thank God Perez decided to spot us a few runs before they started throwing strikes. Gotta hand it to the 'pen though, at least they didn't blow it. The Mets lost that game more than the Phillies won it.

in my leagues, you'd have been lucky to get king felix in the 2nd round. he was so highly rated by most fantasy sites that he was the 3rd pitcher taken in most cases, behind johann and some combination of dice-k or chris carpenter. seems like everyone expected hi to flip the switch this year.

one thing i learned from last year's first season of fantasy ball -- draft mroe than 2 closers. this year, i took 4. saito in LA looks like the real thing.

1 down, 19 wins to go for Eaton!

Continuing with the off-Phillies topic, consider this pitching line:

28.1 IP, 12 H (11 1B, 1 2B), 4 BB, 0 ER,
23 K, .132 BAA

Who is it?

assuming that's 2007 - someone has 28 innings already? that doesn't seem right.

2007 Yes. Trick question (sort of).

One of my old friends in Boston is a season ticket holder. He went to Sox last night with DiceK vs. King Felix. Said that he hadn't seen that dominant of a start by a pitcher in Fenway since Pedro in 1999.

vor, is it a staff (team starters, reliever, etc.)? King Felix leads the lead in IP with 17.

voice of reason- it ex-phillies pitchers from last season stats so far this year (cormier, fultz, etc.)?

It's a team effort.

voice of reason- it ex-phillies pitchers from last season stats so far this year (cormier, fultz, etc.)?

Alright, enough already.

Answer: Padres bullpen.
Even more impressive: except for Hoffman & Linebrink all are in the $382,000-392,000 range.

how about Josh Hamilton's 3/9, 2 HR, 3 BB start? would have been nice to have him off the bench if Gillick's supposed Rule V plan had paid off.

Here's a cheerful thought by Jason Stark:

"The Giants and Phillies started this season 1-6. They don't even want to know that just one team in the last 30 years -- the 1995 Reds -- made the playoffs after a 1-6 start, and no team has made the World Series after a 1-6 start since 1948."

Really gives you goosebumps?

Did anyone see MSN this morning. They rated the top 10 ballparks. No surprise that Wrigley and Fenway are 1 an 2. PNC Park was third. No mention of the money pit.

I hate to beat a dead horse, but do the Astros' recent demotion of Lidge make him any more obtainable? As Kruk mentioned on BBT, he's not missing his spots, he just got beat a couple of time. What would it take to be in the conversation? Are there any trade rumors whatsoever, involving any teams?

On most rankings, I've seen the Money Pit (one of Conlin's best lines) in the mid teens range. I wouldn't be surprised in ten years to see it in the bottom third.

On the Pads, that's a good line, but they have played nine games so far, all in Petco and Pac Bell, probably the two best pitcher's parks in the league.

One thing we will have to accept about the pen (and the rotation) is that the Phils are going to give up a lot of runs (mostly HR) this year because of the ballpark. I don't think it is any coincidence that in the first two games, the tying and winning runs were all on HR. (Incidentally, this is why I like Geary as the 8th inning guy...unlike the rest of the staff, he is very stingy with the long ball).

Anytime we compare the Phils pen to other around the league, remember...context, context, context.

Dave, Fenway is cramped, the outfield seats face the outfield not home base, they have obstructed view seats (you look at a column instead of the game, and the amenities are lacking. That being said, it's one of my favorite ballparks due to the nostalgia and history. I've seen Fenway at the top and bottom of different ballpark lists, it depends what you're rating.

CBP is Six Flags, Fenway is Coney Island.

According to Jason Stark, Lidge is not available, at least for now. He said the following would be available: Juan Cruz, Jose Capellan and Todd Williams. Also, J D Durbin is back on the waiver wire for the third time this month.

Call me crazy (and I know at lesat one person who certainly will), but I wish the Phils wouldn't pannic on the pen.

Yes there were question marks, but again, the two games in the beginning of the season were blown by Myers and Gordon, not Geary, Alfonseca etc.

Madson gave up two decisive bombs, but give him at least *one* shot to pitch in the 7th or 8th before you give up on him.

Manuel's langauge and demeanor (especially after Monday's game) is befitting a loser. You were given the league MVP, the best second basemen in baseball and one of the top young 1-2 SP combos in the game Charlie. So you don't like the pen. Well, stop yanking players in and out of roles when they haven't even had the chance to prove themselves yet. Basically, stop acting scared and suck it up.

kdon,
Do you really believe this bullpen can be trusted for a whole season? Tell me one manager who wouldn't be scared to turn to them with the game on the line? The Braves had one off season and were able to address their one glaring weakness in the off season. If anything the Phillies bullpen is weaker then last year. As a long suffering Phillies Phan I want to know why he didn't do anything to upgrade the bullpen!!!!

I don't think this bullpen can be trusted for a whole season. Definitely needs a quality arm. Whether a closer or setup man, or both.

But, we've been through what did or didn't happened this offseason on every thread.

If Garcia can come back and pitch well for 2 months why not trade him for bullpen help and a legitimate outfield prospect.

Jason, it's probably a good thing you didn't do another fantasy league this year, then, because you and I would have been clawing over all the same players. (I got Hamels and Kinsler -- couldn't get Felix in a league that was mostly AL West fans this year, as opposed to with the Phloggers last year since none of you knew who he was! Though, for the record, I had Kinsler in our league last year too. He's good.)

A day or two ago, it was noted that A-Rod -- just by himself -- had twice as many homers, more XBH, the same amount of walks, and the same amount of RBIs as the entirety of the Mariners lineup. Crazy.

As for the Boston-Seattle game last night, I found it satisfying to see Kenji Johjima -- who I best remembered hitting a HUGE home run off Matsuzaka in the 2004 pacific league playoffs in Japan -- doing his best to help make reporters look silly for the overhype on the Ichiro matchup. On the other hand, if you read the Japanese coverage of the game, there weren't actually any other players in the game besides those three. Sentiments like "How can Matsuzaka win games if his teammates can't get any hits?" were prevalent.

...yeah.

(For the record, it's Tadahito Iguchi and Kenji Johjima who people should be paying attention to vs. Matsuzaka, not Ichiro or H.Matsui or Iwamura, who barely faced him at all due to being in other leagues or not being around at the same time. Iguchi owned him in Japan, too, to a .385 BA or so.)

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