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Wednesday, March 21, 2007


FTN over at Phuture Phillies gave a good breakdown of>Segovia's development. I'm curious to see where him and bisenius end up this year. Bisenius seems to have been having a good spring as well, so I'd expect to see him filling out the holes in the bullpen sooner than segovia. But it seems to me that if segovia starts AAA, we'll definitely see him at some point in the season unless he flames out.

Just read an article over at about how Abreu "has fond memories of his time in Philly". Ok, then why'd you talk sh*t about the city just a short month ago?

Return of "Drama Queen"- these spring scores are looking a lot like the good ol' Phils. Pitching sucks and opposition scores 8 and our offense is good but not good enough and we score 6, or our pitching is on point and allows 2 or 3 and our offense decides not to show up and score 0 or 1. What the hell?!

Quote from Manuel about Bobby Abreu- "He hits third in the Yankees lineup, doesn't he? That says something. People in Philadelphia asked me why I hit him third. That just goes to show you Joe Torre and I have something in common."

*Wow, did Fuqua just compare himself to Torre...he truly is a R-Tard.

Also of note, Cole Hamels got shelled by the D-Rays Triple A team yesterday...not liking what I'm seeing so far. I know Cole is capable of awesome things, but he needs to get straightened out.

Hey, DQ - repeat like a soothing mantra 'it's only spring training, it's only spring training'.

In truth, Coles comments afterwards that he's not happy with where he's at are pretty encouraging. It's what I like best about the guy - he's very analytical about his own performance, and he knows what he needs to do to improve.

He'll be fine (barring injury, and yes I just touched wood). He's been focussing more on the curve and pitching inside, because he knows the whole league is waiting for his change-up this season.

Jason: I hope you're right about Segovia, but like I say, he's a middling prospect at best. That doesn't mean he can't be a useful mopup reliever, but the Phils have no shortage of candidates for that job. It's 8th inning setup we need.

Did anyone see that DN article yesterday about the infamous 5 for 1 trade? Von Hayes was the Pat Burrell of his time (although not nearly as good.) He was hailed as "the next Ted Williams" but turned out to be the next Don Demeter. The fans booed him mercilessly. He was washed up at age 33.

oisin: Good analysis on Hamels. As long as he's healthy, I'm not worried. If the team doesn't address the bullpen issue, it won't matter anyway.

Oisin- you mentioned above that you "touched wood". Was it your own or someone else's? Just curious.

I know it's only spring training, but I'm one of those idiots that analyzes every game. I never like seeing this type of crappiness, I always want success.

As far as Segovia, or any young pitcher is concerned, I'll repost this from the last thread:

Interestingly, Tom Verducci makes the point that experience in the pen doesn't matter that much. Link here:

It's the talent, stupid!

As far as me being worried about the teams record in ST, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Worried about Cole? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

Worried about the Burrell or Howard? zzzzzzzzzzzz.

Worried about the bullpen? #@%&$#@*&#%$^&^%$!

AWH- wake up!!!

Carson, take a valium! Hamels, Burrell and Howard will be fine. The team's record is irrelevant. Look at their record in ST last year - then look at what they did in April.

Royals Review has a post about ST stats here:

Read the first paragraph and take that valium.

DQ, Cole excites me, y'know?

(actually, it was the desk, so I propably touched veneeer rather than wood and so doomed Cole to season ending knee injury when he bends over to reach for the remote, or something similarly ludicrous)

as long as he doesn't follow the example of new teammate Adam Eaton and stab himself opening up a DVD.

Hey, for ll of you worried about ST stats, take heart. The number 2 hitter is going to be AWSOME, TOTALLY AWSOME!!!

Victorino is hitting .429 in ST, so naturally, since you think ST projects so well to the regular season, we can expect him to duplicate that throughout the season.

It will be great. The ballpark will be packed, and Monty and his cronies will be loving it. The Phils have the first .400 hitter since 1941.

AWH: I read the Verducci piece and he makes a good point about the shrinking talent gap and about how it's the hot team, not the best team that wins in October. With regard to young bullpen talent, however, he writes: "Who ever heard of Frankie Rodriguez, Bobby Jenks and Adam Wainwright, for instance, before they were nailing down some of the biggest October outs for world championship teams?"
The answer is: Anyone who pays attention to baseball. Each was considered a top prospect in all baseball (Jenks less so because of control problems but still in BA's top 100 and his own team's top 5.) Now, your assignment is to tell us which Phillies prospect is at the talent level of K Rod et al so we can trust setup relief to him, as Tony has suggested.


I really do admire your minor league knowledge, but not everyone follows every OTHER team's minor league system. I'm sure most of the commenters "pay attention to baseball", but don't pay attention to minor league baseball.

Guys, I'm not really getting all up in arms about these spring stats, I'm just messing around. I am somewhat concerned, but overall I'm joking trying to make light of the situation.

Oisin- you better rub up on some proper wood pronto!

BB: You're probably right. I'm one of the few nerds who salivates over BA's top 100 prospect list. But I find it hard to believe that most Cardinal fans didn't know about Wainwright before he came up or Angels fans about K Rod.

Clout: Your definition of middling prospects is different than mine. My definition is Ryan Cameron and Alfredo Simon, players who'll never play above Triple-A. Even a mop-up middle reliever, which could be Segovia's ceiling, makes him better than mediocre. But to each his own.

Jason: I guess it's just another way of measuring. To me, a player who's unlikely to ever see the majors is a non-prospect. Guys who might have marginal roles, in which I would include Segovia, would be mediocre prospects. Obviously on a fan site like Beerleaguer all Phillies prospects are viewed more favorably than anywhere else.

GM - I agree with AWH, you need to take pill. Take Spring Training for what it is worth, a chance to work on some things for vets and a chance for young guys to try to make the team.

Also, Cholly must have been joking when he compared himself to Torre. Even if he wasn't calling him a R-Tard is still classless.

Clout: Not that you need a bigger head, but truth be told, I like your measurement better. Makes sense. More understandable. Divorses the ratings even further from the minor league context in which this site was formed. In reasearching Segovia, one local article said "The sky's the limit." Woah. Not so fast ...


it's been awhile for me, but I agree, going through BA's top prospects/minor league stats is interesting, especially some of the obscure names. I remember "Pork Chop" Pough fondly.

Some notes from the Denver Post:

"Jon Lieber's situation should come to a breaking point soon. The Phillies aren't going to use him as a reliever. The most logical scenarios floating around: Lieber and Aaron Rowand to the White Sox for a reliever, or Lieber to the Brewers for Kevin Mench. ... The Rockies have interest in Mark Hendrickson, but the Dodgers prefer to package the pitcher to get an impact bat. ... Marlins bench coach Carlos Tosca is a Byung-Hyun Kim fan, but it's hard to see Florida getting involved unless the Rockies eat a huge chunk of the pitcher's salary. ... The Blue Jays appear set to release pitcher John Thomson rather than pay him an opening day roster bonus"

CY- like I said, I was just joking (mostly). I am concerned, but mostly only about the bullpen. I know our rotation and offense are good.

Jason: A guy like Segovia is extremely difficult to project because of the injury and the fact he no longer throws hard. You're basically guessing on whether he can improve his command to the point where he can consistently get out major league hitters. The comparison to Silva is apt.

Clout: And he needs to develop a second pitch.

BB: I really, really hope we don't trade Lieber for Kevin Mench. We already have Kevin Mench. His name is Jayson Werth and he's a better fielder.

Shocking Reappraisal of Bullpen situation: It is not as bad as everyone thinks.

Madson: potential to be very good reliever/setup man.

Geary: if continues recent success, could be guy that keeps us in close games after bad starts from rotation.

Smith: looked good every time he took the mound last year (Even when he got jobbed by the umires against Fish)

Gordon: tank is not on fumes, and has ability to be good closer, but cannot be overused. (Biggest question for me is here)

Alfonseca: Mystery man. May have a decent year, and if he does that is a bonus. I dont think he will be terrible. I dont think Phils are going to put him in life or death, late inning situations often unless necessary.

Lieber, Castro, Condrey, (INsert other random pick here): No matter who goes here, None of these guys are great at this point, though Castro has shown signs of potential dominant, if not wildly inconsistent pitching.

Bottom Line: Losing hair and and having daydreams about Vincinte Padilla are not worth it at this point. These guys look pretty rag-tag, but they may just be a decent BP, which I think is all the Phils need to start season. If we are close at midseason, then make a move to put us over the top.

Parker: And if your aunt had b--ls, she'd be your uncle.

a "huge chunk" of Kim's salary? he's only making $2.5M in 2007.

I think the Post might have their Kim and Benitez trade rumors confused.

I saw him pitch at reading a few times last summer and was very impressed.

Hey Carson-

In general I appreciate your baseball knowledge and what you bring to the comments section. But I'd appreciate it if you'd cut out the locker-room standard homophobic jokes. Not only are they offensive, but they're boring too.

Let's stick to baseball.

I don't get those rumors.

Lieber for Mench would be the most asinine deal of the Gillick era, and that's saying something.

Strange- if by "homophobic" comments you mean my "wood" reference above, you need to reconsider that. I wasn't being a homophobe there. Yes, teenager like humor, but not homophobic. And by all means, that should not be offensive, but whatever...

I forget that we have sensitive little ears.

I can only see it if ...

Lieber for Mench + Turnbow

then ...

Rowand for MacDougal + Logan

Bullpen would be ...


Outfield would be ...

Not so hot. I think they're worried about Burrell. Could be a season of corner outfield platoons.

I don't think Lieber for Mench would be terrible on its own, but in context it is pretty stupid. he'd be great as a platoon RF (allowing Rowand to be flipped for bullpen help and Victorino to play his more natural CF position), but since we don't have anyone who hits RHP that doesn't do us any good. *most* asinine is probably setting the bar a little too high though.

what about Jacque Jones? (for Lieber, if the Cubs were interested.) I've scoffed at the idea every time I've seen it brought up, but as I rethink it, he's almost certainly a better hitter than Rowand and allows the Vic-to-center/Rowand-for-relief moves, which I see as a net gain. the Cubs are obviously motivated to move Jones, and Lieber pitched well for them previously.

I'd do a Lieber for Jacque Jones then Rowand for relief...if only it were actually on the table.

Hell, in a White Sox trade, is it possible to work out something to get a spare LH outfielder back so they can send Karim back to Mexico.

I had wondered whether lieber for an OF-er made more sense - taking onboard gillick's comments that trading pitching is harder right now.

Sounds like we're going to have to trade pitcher for outfielder then outfielder for pitcher.

Sounds redundant.

Lieber for an outfielder to platoon in RF. Then Rowand for a reliever.

I really wonder if Gillick will do anything though.

If were seriously going to trade back another player with the Whitesox why doesn't Jerry Reinsdorf just buy this team. Clearly we could use an an owner who understands how to do go out and spend the money when he has a team who he thinks is close to being a contender

yeah mm, too bad we don't have a GM willing to go out and get great contributors like Darin Erstand and Gavin Floyd.

it's not like we've gotten fleeced in any of the White Sox deals. Rangers, that's another story.

Erstad, Erstad, Erstad. I always misspell that name...

Also...if we trade John Lieber for Kevin Mench, i will go bezerk. So if we had pulled the trigger two months ago we could have gotten turnbow out of the deal as well and now we only get a 4th outfielder...personally, i'm starting to hate gillick more and this point, we have to sit on lieber till the deadline...cus lieber for mench is just dumb. No one wants mench...

one more post, sorry: theres no way cubs pull the trigger on jones for lieber, and if someone out there thinks that deal is including rowand, then your nuts. The man wouldn't be able to walk around the streets of chicago safely going from the sox to cubs. Neal Cotts can, but thats because no one gives a S**T about neal cotts. Rowand was a WS Hero for the Sox...that rivalry is pretty heated.

ae: it's not like we've gotten fleeced in any of the White Sox deals. Rangers, that's another story."

uM...were still paying 5m a year for their DH, if you don't remember

and yes, i know, we have ryno at 1B. I get that...still, i think our trading with the sox has been pretty even handed. They got a great deal out of Thome and in turn, we got Garcia for next to nothing....and yes i know Floyd has potential but if he pitches like he has so far in ST he will be rotting away in the minors for the rest of his career, or finally moved to the bullpen, by july-so i really only see garcia as making up for the thome trade: my buddy is a sox fan and we razz each other about it all the time.

Cubs are motivated to move Jones because they want to put Felix Pie in the outfield. the AP is reporting that the Cubs may put Prior on the DL to start the season - right now, they're relying on either Prior or Wade Miller for the fifth rotation spot, and that's not a really good bet.

and while Lieber obv. doesn't have much trade value, Jones is also pretty much worthless on the trade market (come on, we're talking about Jacque Jones here). I never said the deal would include Rowand, I have no idea where you got that from.

we had to throw in money to move Thome. that trade was about as close to fair for both sides as you're ever going to see. maybe we gave up a little more, but we were in a more desperate position (selling low, had a backup at 1B).

and the reason why the sox didn't go out and spend a ton of money in FA is because: 1) they alreayd have a pretty solid team and 2) next year Dye and Crede will be FA's. Look for the sox to let crede walk and put fields in at 3b, and re-sign dye, then use the money on a ss/2b(don't think their really big on Uribe past next year; if they get a ss, they move iguichi to 2b)

Ae: i'm sure the cubs want pie on the roster...but he's not going to start everyday. Which means they have Floyd out there 60% of the time. Would you want Cliff Floyd starting most of the time?

oh, and i wish we had Kenny Williams as our GM, he traded McCarthy for four pitchers...

huh? how is Floyd starting 60% of the time? Soriano is obviously full time, and while you might not think Pie is ready for the big leagues, everything I have read suggests the Cubs think he's ready for a major role. and Matt Murton would be getting the majority of starts in the other corner, not Floyd.

yeah, obviously Floyd would play more, but they're not paying him $3M to sit around and do nothing.

and I don't really care to argue about the White Sox, but Williams is a ridiculously overrated GM. he trades Rowand, leaving him with a huge OF hole that he first tries to fill with Anderson (can't hit) and now apparently Erstad (can't hit and more expensive). he trades Garcia, then trades the young pitcher supposed to take his spot. he apparently buys into the idiotic Ozzie "smart ball" hype and keeps picking up more hitless players when it's the sluggers who have given him any success.

the White Sox would be lucky to finish third this year. they have nowhere near the talent of the Twins, Tigers, and Indians, and that's mostly because of the so-called genius Kenny Williams.

ok, sorry about arguing about the chi-sox on a phils site. Yeah, the AL Central looks like a really tough division. And since its what i will see on TV besides the cubs(i live in chi-town) at least i'll get to see some good basebal in lieu of the phils. I hate the cubs.

in that case, we agree on at least one thing...

The one consolation we should all bear here is that the Phillies finished spring training last year on an uncharacteristically high note, and everything looked like it had fallen perfectly in place. Then the team came out and laid a total egg in the first homestand. It does go to show you can't always trust what you see in Florida, but then again it isn't exactly fodder for comfort. Some observations/prognostications:

- Jimmy Rollins is going to hit .300 this year.

- Victorino is going to be the most exciting sloppy player the Phils have had since Juan Samuel. Despite his high ST average, I am not convinced he's going to have a strong offensive season. He strikes me as a very flawed hitter.

- Burrell is going to do exactly what he did last year.

- Freddie Garcia is going to make Kevin Millwood seem like a fulfilling acquisition.

- Ryan Madson will be sent to the minors or traded before season's end.

- Segovia and Bisenius will make the team out of spring training, barring a trade.

- A trade will happen. But it'd better not be for Kevin Mench. Regardless, it won't impress anyone. Coste, more obviously than even Lieber, will be gone.

- Gillick will dump Garcia, Eaton, and Moyer in mid-season, and say the Phillies can't contend until at least 2013. The Phillies will proceed to go 30-4 down the stretch and miss the wild card by 2 games, prompting the fan base to prepare excitedly for the following season. Meanwhile, Gillick will be planning for a brighter tomorrow by signing three players from the Canton-Akron slo-pitch softball league.

- Manuel will punch out a cameraman sometime in May and resign sometime in September.

But at least Rollins will hit .300!

By the way, to set the record straight: Von Hayes was not booed except for his first year and his last two in pinstripes. I don't agree that Hayes was 'not nearly as good' as Burrell. He didn't have as much power, of course, but he did have speed and never embarrassed himself in the field. If Burrell is traded tomorrow for Jose Mesa, Hayes would have had the better Phillies' career.

Hey Jason - congrats on being shortlisted on that SI poll (or is that old news?)

Paul Wilson was cut by the Reds today. Maybe a tryout in the bullpen would be the best chance for him to keep his career going.

it's too bad real life isn't WhatIfSports, because 2000 Paul Wilson would be perfect as a setup man.

Rsb why do you feel Von Hayes is better then Burrell? What stats do you feel show who is better in their Career?

Canton-Akron Slo-Pitch Softball league! Lets get tickets!


The "wood" statement is not the first time.

Call my little ears sensitive if it makes you feel better, but they'd be just as happy not to hear that nonsense. Thanks.

Looks like some out of market fans that don't have direct TV may still be able to get the package on cable.

Anyone have any insight?

Lets pray for the best!

RSB, I thought you would wait at least until they lost their first regular season game before you had a "the sky is falling" post.

According to the game notes, Garcia, Brito, Castro, and Gordon are scheduled for this evening's game against the Blue Jays. Barring trade, I believe the last bullpen spot is between Castro and Brito.

RSB: Unless you value corner OF defense as the most important attribute in baseball, there's no way Hayes was better than Burrell.

Hayes lifetime OPS: .770
Burrell lifetime OPS: .841

That is a HUGE difference! Hayes hit more than 20 HRs only twice in his 12-year career, with a high of 26. Burrell in 7 years, has hit above 20 HRs 6 times! Three times as many as Hayes. With a high of 37. To suggest that Hayes is a better ballplayer than Burrell is beyond absurd.

Strange- I never say anything to purposely offend anyone, so honestly I'm sorry for offending you. I know I could simply say things a matter of factly, but obviously I enjoy spicing things up.

clout, you do need to correct for era...Burrell's OPS+ is 117 and Hayes' is 113. that's a lot closer than their raw numbers suggest.

I'm starting to wonder if there's some merit to the idea that Castro is better as a starter. The idea was floated here during Winter League play, when he was being used exclusively in the first few frames.

I would just like to say that I hope that I have not offended anyone. Unless I have offended those people who are offended at not being offended. But then if I offend the people who are offended at not being offended, I am offending everyone else. I think I have offended myself with this post. I am going to go punch a mirror now and see what my reflection thinks of that. World, why do you have so many skin products? Sensitive, we are these days.

Tony, you're right, I kind of let it all cave in a little. I guess that's just my normal mode after all these years of following this team. And yes, that is a legitimate excuse!

Clout: is the composite value of a ballplayer determined by OPS and nothing more? Let's talk dimension. What skills do the players have; how many ways can they help a team. Hayes could get on base, hit with extra-base power, steal bases, and field his position averagely. Burrell can get on base but is difficult to advance. His lone outstanding skill is power, yet he's only hit 30 homers twice - and he's below average in the field. I don't think you can break it all down to OPS. Hayes might not have had that one defining skill in his game, but he was a better *all-around* player than Burrell.

All this Kim talk. The only Kim I want to hear about is Kim Batiste (and that may be stretching it). Byun Hyun, not so much.

RSB: How many runs does Burrell create? How many does his fielding allow? Compare that to Hayes. I'll let the Bill James folks do the research on that stat and win shares etc, but if you honestly think Von Hayes is a better player than Burrell, I only wish you and I were GMs in the same league.

Clout, this is even more boring than arguing about Abreu. I'll be content to say Hayes in his best seasons was at least as valuable as Burrell in his. If that's wrong to you, it's just going to have to stay wrong.

I didn't see this posted yet: Lieber to the 'pen is offical, per Lauber.

"I'm disappointed," Lieber said. "I'd be lying if I said I wasn't. I'm going to do it for these guys in here, but I think I can still start. It sucks. I signed here to be a starter."

Sorry clout, I have to go with RSB on this one, but not because of some silly argument about "all-around" ability. I think Hayes was simply a more valuable player period.

Offense has changed a bit in the days between Hayes and let's look at OPS+.

Best 5 seasons as Phils:

Hayes: 139, 132, 129, 124, 118
PtheB: 149, 125, 124, 110, 110

While Pat the Bat has a career edge of 117 to 113, Burrell has yet to hit his decline phase.

Other than Pat's great 2002, Hayes was the more valuable hitter. Add in the fact that Hayes has more speed and was a superior fielder, and he has a fairly solid edge over Burrell right now.

See RSB...stats can even be used to support your arguments!

If Lieber opens the season in the pen and they haven't made a trade to upgrade bullpen/outfield, then I will be disappointed in Gillick.

MG, I agree. It would be a colossal joke and everyone knows it. Lieber's not putting on the happy face now, is he. No one thought it would actually come to this.

Thanks, Carson.

Parker- I loved your "offending" comments above.

I defending Gillick for a long time, count me in with being almost disappointed. His complete lack of success in suring up the bullpen has me pissed. If something isn't done soon (within a month's time) then there really isn't much defense I can offer for Patty G anymore.

From and Paul Hagen: "They are going to do what's best for the ballclub," (Lieber) said. "My hands are tied. I'm just a piece of meat. That's the unfortunate part. But I'll just go in there and give it my best."

Um. He's a piece of meat, alright.

A great big fat piece of meat who should probably do some chin-ups trying to get into that great big fat tank of a car you have over there.

Sit-ups would've been funnier, but you can't well, sit-up into a great big fat tank of a car, now can you?

Strange- was that a sincere or sarcastic "thanks"?

kdon: I want you as GM in my league too, but I already knew that!

If Lieber is a piece of meat, he is certainly not a lean cut. More like ground chuck with a pretty high fat content. (Sorry had to get that rip in there).

I understand why Lieber is upset. He's in a contract year and wants to land one last 2-3 year deal at 5mm+ before he waddles off into the sunset.

If he's in the pen, and in they CAN'T move him anytime soon, that absolutely kills his marketability this offseason, unless he gets traded and strings together a bunch of quality starts to finish the year.

The positive side of keeping him there: We still don't know if we'll get a full season from Eaton and Hamels (please, no) is an injury risk with his back. The Phillies had 13 different pitchers start games last year. Lieber is a good insurance policy, and if a starter gets injured, having him as a replacement keeps the team from having to rush someone back.


caught this on -

"Josh Hamilton continues to make the Reds a candidate for the Greatest Rule 5 Pick of This Millennium award. And it's now clear why the Reds moved up in that draft to take him: They were convinced that the Marlins and Phillies were both maneuvering to try to grab him first."

i wish pg would have gotten it done.

I guess Johan Santana, a Rule 5 pick, was before the millennium?

Hmm clout, ad hominen attacks rather than actual evidence for Burrell over Hayes. Intersting...

Yep Carson, 1999 for Santana.

kdon: I already made my case. Burrell's career numbers are superior to Hayes. And since his career isn't over yet, your biased selective choice of their "5 best years" isn't valid.
This isn't as weak as your argument that Condrey and Sanches are better choices for the bullpen than veteran pitchers, but it's close.

Can we start throwing ground chuck behind him when he waddles in from the bullpen?

Mike H. that may have been the strangest image I have thought about in a while, but humorous none the less. (But dont you think the meat would probably be a little more fatty? Maybe just ground beef?)

Speaking of food: I just bought this great Barbecue from Many Ramirez on ebay. Probably paid too much, but oh well. This gives me an idea about adding to the Phillies budget. Maybe Pat Burrell could start selling some of his acquired memorabelia from the bars around Philly. You know, maybe some signed pictures, receipts from tabs, women's underwear (autographed of course), etc. Crazy, yes, but an idea.

Oops, I just read the extra fatty meat comments (on Lieber), wasn't trying to bum off of anyone.

Clout, I know you understand historical context, and both ae and I have posted numbers that your reliance on raw OPS and HR totals is misleading.

Your're argument for Burrell is the kind of nonsense selctive reasoning that you usually evicerate in other posts. Suppose an "objective clout" looked at another poster comparing HR totals (and arbitrary cut-offs like 20!)? That clout would jump on it.

I know you know it's misleading to compare stats from two vastly different eras. Why are you doing it?

And as for the 5 best years, it's not biased or misleading, Burrell has 6 full seasons in Philly, Hayes had 7. (In fact,had I gone to 6 it would have factored in Burrell's '03 disaster and looked worse). 5 years was arbitrary, but not "biased."

If you look at the adjusted data, Hayes had a better career in Philly than Burrell so far, no question.

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