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Wednesday, March 28, 2007

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Jason

It was Ezequiel Astacio, not Pedro

The Phils are looking for any bullpen fodder right now, because our's sucks!

Jobbers: Huge difference! Ezzy was a pretty good Phillies prospect who went to the Astros in the Billy Wags deal. Pedro would make no sense at all.

But there's a puzzling aspect to this move anyway: Astacio is no better of a prospect than Justin Germano. He throws harder than Germano, but he lacks Germano's control. Germano had a better year in AAA last season. Plus Astacio's 27, while Germano is just 24.

So, why would you cut Germano and then try to pick up a guy whose ceiling is about equal? Did they think Astacio would be more adapatable to the bullpen? Both have been starters their entire careers. I'm way dumber than Pat Gillick and maybe that's why I can't see the logic in this.

I think Alby is the best poster on Beerleaguer, so I'm glad to see him back.

As usual his analysis of the Victorino debate is on the money. My view is exactly this: Victorino's skills are best used as a platoon or 4th outfielder. If you play him every day you expose his flaws. By spotting him against good pitching matchups and weak teams you can generate real production.

kdon has made a bold prediction: Victorino will hit .295/.350/.450 as an everyday player.
Here is my prediction: .278/.338/.420.
This is predicated on Victorino being an everyday player (at least 550 plate appearances).
At season's end we'll see who's closer to being right.

Jobbers: Yikes! Boy did I screw that up! Thanks. Need some coffee.

Clout, At this time last year, you called Victorino a AAA lifer and a Quad A player at best. You are right most things, but have been wrong on Vic.

Billy Mac: That's sounds a bit harsh. I've always thought of him as a 4th outfielder type.

OK Clout. I thought it was you, but perhaps it was another poster during last year's Victorino debate. So, you don't see Victorino as a starting CF in this league ? Agreed he is playing out of position now.

Billy: he's certainly not worthy of being a corner OF. CF is the best position for him. I'm a skeptic on his ability to be a productive everyday player. We'll find out if I'm right or wrong this year since he's the starting rightfielder.

Back on topic. I don't see what the Phils see in Warden. They haven't use him that much and when he's pitched, he's shown poor command. Do we really need a situational righty when there are 5 other righties already in the pen ? So much for taking the best 25 north.

today's shocking news out of Chicago... it looks like Gavin Floyd is headed for AAA.

Right-handers Gavin Floyd and David Aardsma and lefties Andrew Sisco and Boone Logan are in the mix, and all four pitched Tuesday.

Floyd -- a long shot at this point -- allowed four earned runs in three innings. Logan followed with a two-walk outing, and Sisco surrendered five runs. Only Aardsma looked sharp.

''[Logan] came out of the inning a little wild,'' Guillen said. ''So did Sisco. I need something better out of those guys. My leash is going to be pretty short.''

Guillen wanted to meet with his coaching staff and other personnel one more time this morning to make sure he didn't make the decision out of anger Tuesday. The Sox have to decide if they want three left-handers in the bullpen or to go righty-lefty with the two spots.

Either way, Floyd looks like he's headed to Charlotte.

''[Floyd] has a good arm; he will be in the big leagues,'' Guillen said. ''But the best shot for him is to be in the big leagues as a starter. Give him an opportunity to come out and do what he's supposed to do. It's not easy being a reliever in the big leagues.''


Sun-Times

I agree with clout that it's good to have Alby back and to read his thoughts. Someone wrote that clout was the Simon Cowell of Beerleaguer, a compliment to clout because Randy and Paula puff up the no-talents and Simon tells it like it really is. In my highly negative frame of mind about this particular edition of the Phillies, if clout is Simon Cowell, then I'm the Anti-Paula Abdul. We can refer to really bad posters as being a Sanjaya.

Maybe we should refer to Gillick as Sanjaya.

With the season creeping nearer and nearer, I suspect something is done to adress the bullpen soon. It may not be anything big, but I can't imagine that Gillick doesnt do something. There is an ESPN insider post (Which I do not have), which mentions the Phillies scouting a relief pitcher from the Blue Jays (Robles or something like that). Has anyone heard aything about this?

Something will happen today or tomorrow, I'm sure. If not I will be shocked at the lack of resourcesfulness of the organization, and In will be doubting the playoffs even more. ("Playoffs,? Playoffs,? the Playoffs???)

they showed some of floyds start on espn this morning. he looks terrible.

this bullpen is a complete crap shoot. but in reality, other than lieber and rowand there isn't anything anyone else would want. (and apparently nobody wants lieber)

I know its been said a million times, but how the hell is Karim Garcia on this team. My only hope is that Coste gets healthy soon and kills the ball in AAA to force management's hand. But I don't see Garcia being released/demoted so soon, I don't think Gillick is apt at correcting his own mistakes until they are so glarring that he has no other choice. But seriously, how the hell is Garcia on this team?! Would he make the Nationals? I'd rather have Randy Wolf back just as a pinch hitter than Garcia. Thus, a challenge: Can anybody make a solid argument for how Garcia will help this team and why he is more valuable than Bourn or Coste (or a three legged camel with one good eye for that matter)? Here's hoping he doesn't get even a third of Dobbs' at bats...and that isn't a compliment for Dobbs. I'd honestly rather see Manuel himself make the team (in Garcia's role) than Gacia.

With Lieber on the DL indefinitely, there is no way a major trade takes place. The only thing that Phils might do is claim a bullpen arm from waivers.

"or a three legged camel with one good eye for that matter"

Opposable thumbs. That is the best thing one can say about Garcia. But hey, why would you want Coste over Garcia. As if a guy who can hit in the clutch with some pop and play half the positions on the field would really be a better asset then a strike out artist who is a barely passable RFer.

Parker, In today's Inky, Zolecki mentioned Phils are looking at Rosario.

"The Phillies had the radar gun on Toronto Blue Jays righthander Francisco Rosario yesterday at Knology Park in Dunedin. Rosario is out of options, so if he doesn't make the Jays' opening-day roster, he would need to clear waivers before Toronto could send him to the minors. Rosario has a 3.38 ERA in seven appearances this spring. ."

(slightly) off topic, but ugueth urbina was sentenced to 14 yrs in prison today:
link

Moyer interview on WIP this morning was really good. It is amazing how polished Moyer is and he had some great responses/insights. Definitely will be a pitching coach or manager if he wants to be in a few years.

vt, If Coste were a LH batter, Coste being on the team wouldn't even be a discussion point. For the record, I think he is getting a raw deal and I saw the writing on the wall in December when the Phils signed Barajas. It is very difficult to make a team strictly as a RH pitch hitter and Gillick and company for whatever reason do not view Coste as an adequate catcher, and never tried him at 3B. I am actually not concerned about Garcia -- as the 25th man, he won't see much action. He has been swinging a decent bat this spring. Can't be worse than what we had last year -- Simon, Roberson, ... I will miss Coste's tough ABs . Again, I hope the Phils trade him as they certainly don't value his contributions.

They're looking at Rosario, and the rumor on another site is that they're talking with Florida about a Michael Bourn-for-Taylor Tankersley deal. Tankersley is recovering from an injury right now, but should be good to go by mid-April.

I'm still not sure the bullpen is the disaster area we've been led to expect. The Daily News has a stat today that in the last 12 games, the relievers have a collective ERA of 2.30. You can pick at that--late-game spring lineups aren't really representative of what you see when the real games start--but it does kind of put the lie to the notion that all these guys stink.

Just Alfonseca; if the Phils' annual bullpen follies are a low-budget, critically panned horror movie franchise, he's this year's monster. Hopefully he'll be killed by the silver bullet of unconditional release after a month or two, and then we'll just have to wait for Bullpen Crap VIII: The Revenge of Danny Graves, premiering March 2008.

At this point, the Phils are reminding me of a Little League team. They just want a couple of kids who can throw or bat left-handed, regardless of their actual talent level or ability. Until they find some, we're stuck with moves like this. I know that bullpen is a crapshoot, but I can't remember the Phils ever taking this much of a leap of faith to start the season with their 'pen.

Dads, get your youngsters to the batting cage and swinging left-handed!!!!

Hopefully Warden will be sent packing once Lieber returns. I don't see this guy having any ability to get major league hitters out. His raw stats are poor, and he looks like he really has to try hard just to throw a strike.

On Floyd, what a shock! Floyd has been a bad pitcher for about 4 years now, and has never once shown any track record of being able to get hitters out. He is a major data point in favor of looking at stats over scouting. Every scout and pitching coach, just drools over his curve, but if you took ten minutes to actually look at his track record, you could figure out he is worthless.

And don't I get the bullpen award!

From March 20:

"Fearless bullpen prediction:. Gordon, Geary, Madson, Lieber, Smith, Alfonseca, Condrey."

Assuming Lieber takes Warden's spot when he gets off the DL, I think this is what we are looking at.

"I'd rather have Randy Wolf back just as a pinch hitter than Garcia."

I'd rather have randy wolf back period.

Also: Is the ownerships imaginary number so unmovable we couldn't even get a 2.5mil-3mil a year reliever? Honestly. Were now going to trade lieber or rowand for AAAA pitching?


I hate them....I hate them so much.

Kdon, congrats. You nailed it. In truth, I'm glad to see Condrey make the squad; I thought he got kind of a raw deal last year when he got sent down the day after blowing one extra-inning save opportunity. With more major league experience I think he could grow into a Geary-type reliever, something I say because I never foresaw Geary having as much success as he's had. He seemed to be nothing but a tweener when he first made the team, riding the AAA shuttle, and look at him now.

I agree about Big Jim Ed -- I only saw him the one game, but even the strikes he threw were up in the zone, a buffet for major league hitters. That said, I wonder if the thinking here is that Cleveland (was that his team?) might be less likely to want him back once its roster is set, and the Phils might be able to work out something to keep him in the minors. The chances of his ever succeeding might be very slim, but the Phillies are so understocked they will grasp at such straws; perhaps they think that coaching from a submariner (is Tekulve still doing TV/radio for someone?) will help him gain more control over his unorthodox delivery. As I recall he's only been pitching this way a couple of years; control is all about finding a repeatable release point. If I were GM I'd just start cutting bait, but then if I were GM I'd put Ruiz on the DL and take Coste north.

Alby: Coste is actually nursing his own hamestring injury. Coste, Garcia, Ruiz, Lieber and Geary are among the walking wounded.

Thanks for the kind words, Clout, but this site has at least a dozen posters -- yourself, kdon, RSB, ae, Billy Mac, Carson, dajafi, willard, VoR, Bedrosian's Beard, Lake Fred, Tim, yt, Iron Pig, plus others I can't name off the top of my head -- who exceed the level of discourse I've ever found on other baseball blogs. I not only learn things here, I get to debate all sorts of Phillies stuff, almost always in a passionate but not nasty manner. This is all a tribute to Jason, not just for doing all the hard work he does but for setting a tone that fosters the discussions. Lots of people with baseball opinions start blogs; very few of those blogs add as much to the enjoyment of the game as Beerleaguer.

I agree 100% about Jim Ed. He has shown me nothing this spring. I think it's a joke that he has made it this far. Maybe it's the hick factor that draws Charlie to him. Hopefully something is in the works to upgrade our pen.

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