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Thursday, February 15, 2007

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Well, after all, he's not a priority.

Gotta work on that Brian Sanches contract first! LOL, RSB!

I would love to see this type of production from him this year:

.325 BA, 55 HR, 155 RBI.

His popularity would be stratospheric in this town, especially if the Phils make the playoffs.

Then, he should refuse to sign a long term deal and take them to ARB. I would love to see how puckered up ownership would get if they thought he would do a Boras, and walk in his FA year.

Howard's popularity is already stratospheric - but I think it would be a mistake to expect him to hit over 50 homeruns every year. He's almost certain to come down a bit this season, and no one should have a problem with that. I think he'll be in the vicinity of .290-45-125, and those are still monster numbers by any standard.

Howard's popularity is already stratospheric - but I think it would be a mistake to expect him to hit over 50 homeruns every year. He's almost certain to come down a bit this season, and no one should have a problem with that. I think he'll be in the vicinity of .290-45-125, and those are still monster numbers by any standard.

RSB, I didn't say I expected him to put up those numbers, just that I would love to see it.

Howard would be taking a *big* risk by not signing a long term deal after this season, or even during this season. If he went to arb every year, he would be one injury away from blowing the chance ata big contract. This guy has "only" made a few million in baseball so far, and you have to think he would want the long term deal to secire him, his family, his friends, his friends families...

Howard will get his money...I'm sure he knows that, and i'm sure they have a handshake agreement with him on something, it just hasn't been made public. As inept as this ownership is, they can't be that inept.

Don't worry about the Howard contract situation. The Phils are probably doing the right thing. Or at least this article by Jayson Stark made me feel that way.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2740975

Howard isn't the one holding out here. When the big contract is offered, he's going to go for it. It's apparent this won't happen for another year. He says he's okay with that. Hopefully the Phillies won't pinch pennies this time around - after Myers and Utley, one is less inclined to think they will, but somehow Greg Dobbs and Alfredo Simon get signed before he does. How that even happens is a mystery.

Howard will get signed, and I have a feeling the Phils will reward him handsomely. He'll probably get north of 1 million, which is unheard of for a player with his little experience. Then next offseason the Phils lock him up for 5-6 years, that's my prediction.

Also, RSB's projection of .290 45 125 is pretty much what I'm thinking, and those are still GREAT #'s.

Ace, I appreciate the info on the minor league pithcers from a couple of posts ago. I've been away for a couple of days and just now got to it.

I dont understand why, if it is, Howards contract negotiations are news. From what I have read, he seems to understand that the Phillies do not have to talk contract for a while. I do not think it wise on the Phillies part to give him the cold shoulder, and would much rather see him inked sooner than later, but they dont have to right now. I really hope they do not screw this up, and I hope that Howard getting a new agent has not put too many $$$ signs in his head. Dont get me wrong, I think he should get paid, however, I have interpreted most of his comments to be in line with a modest and understated player. I would hate to see him become all about the money. Wel,l I guess pro sports are always all about the money, but some choose to air out their laundry more publicly than others, and I hope that is not what Howard becomes.

I read the Stark article that Ted referenced. I guess if Howard wants big money, he will need to continue his big bat numbers and the money will come somewhere down the road, just not this year.

Speaking of the bullpen, I want to repeat an item I posted at the bottom of an old thread yesterday:
"Mets claim RHP Marcos Carvajal off waivers from the Devil Rays.

The 22-year-old had a 3.86 ERA and a 69/39 K/BB ratio in 72 1/3 IP for Double-A Montgomery last season and a 2.19 ERA in 37 innings in Venezuela over the winter."

Anyone besides me annoyed by this? Carvajal is a pretty good bullpen prospect. Are the Phillies so loaded at Ottawa that they had to let him pass thru waivers to the Mets?

For an example of what not to do as a team with a young slugger, see Marlins, Florida.

Very different budget to be sure, but they're fighting Miguel Cabrera over friggin' $700,000 and then tsk-tsk him to the media when he doesn't show for a fan appreciation day.

Don't worry, Howard will eventually be overpaid in a year or two to make up for being underpaid.

Here's hoping Cabrera get ticked off and chooses to leave FL for less sunny pastures. Hopefully in the AL, as Boston will be needing a 3B in a year or so.

Well, it's good the Phils didn't sign Keith Foulke. He is going to retire before he ever throws a pitch for the Tribe.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2767796

Required reading:

http://www.courierpostonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=sports

No, not the Forsberg story...scroll down and click on "Burrell is not the Devil"

Roberts provides his readers with more relevant information in one article than Conlin does in a month.

Anyone else think that the comment by the nameless front office guy in the Stark article pretty much sums up what sports, as a whole (not just baseball) and contract negotiations have become? It's played off as half-joking, but there's some legitimate truth to the comment "You can't go and hit 58 during your first or second season. That doesn't pay. Unfortunately for him, until you get to free agency, service time means more than actual on-field results."

It just goes to show that even front offices can safely put some stock in players performing better in their contract years. What a vicious cycle our short-attention span society has created. Whine and moan when a guy signs a contract and is overpaid, then underperforms, then rant and rave about signing a guy who puts up big numbers in a walk year, only to start the cycle all over again.

Ryan's only "mistake" is that he gives a crap every year and not just in the ones that somehow dictate his salary.

kdon - great read. Thanks for the link. I'm curious as to the discussion that the "debunked myths" will create on this site (who says Blogs and message boards are nothing but graffiti?).

I tend to agree in part with Roberts. He does a good job of backing up his stance with stats. I'd rather have Burrell striking out too much than Bell hitting into DP's or Nunez not getting the bat off his shoulder. Pure and simple, if Pat is a .258 hitter, 25.8% of the time he has an AB he'll get a hit in his "protection" role - how "big" the hit is depends on how Howard was handled in the plate appearance before him. The other 74.2% of the time he'll make an out and we'll crucify him.

It's an overused expression but Burrell is what he is. Whatever the hype around him was, he is now a career .258 hitter who can put up some power numbers and RBI's, but will strike out in the AB's when he's not doing so.

Quoting a post from AWH:

"Here's hoping Cabrera get ticked off and chooses to leave FL for less sunny pastures. Hopefully in the AL, as Boston will be needing a 3B in a year or so."

The Phils could use a third baseman sooner rather than later too. A guy can dream about a Howard, Utley, Rollins, Cabrera infield, can't he? Can you imagine?!?!

just to make a note on howard and his service time - that is as much a creature of the union as it is the owners.

and jon - yes we can dream about that for sure. i'd be scared of a soriano type deal with cabrera though becuase of his supposed terrible work ethic. (i don't know how bad it could be in reality though, considering how good a hitter he is.)

Sorry the link is too long.

From FoxSports- "Not to rain on the Phillies' parade of enthusiasm for the way outfielder Chris Roberson played in the Mexican Winter League, but much-traveled lefty Bruce Chen, 0-7 with a 6.93 in the big leagues last year, was 5-0, 0.72 with a .114 opponents batting average there this offseason."

Kind of puts things in perspective doesn't it?

From FoxSports- "Not to rain on the Phillies' parade of enthusiasm for the way outfielder Chris Roberson played in the Mexican Winter League, but much-traveled lefty Bruce Chen, 0-7 with a 6.93 in the big leagues last year, was 5-0, 0.72 with a .114 opponents batting average there this offseason."

Kind of puts things in perspective doesn't it?

to be fair to Bruce Chen, he did go 13-10 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP for Baltimore in 2005. so it's not like he hasn't been successful in major league baseball relatively recently.

but yeah, Chris Roberson is not very good.

I honestly want Roberson to make the team because of his speed and defense. But it would be nice if he learned to slap a single every 4th at bat that way he'd be somewhat useful as a pinch-hitter.

who said there was a parade anyway? he's a 5th outfielder at best, nobody was getting too excited.

OK, this isn't Baseball Related I guess, but at the same time it is. I had a dream this morning that Chase Utley and Ryan Howard showed up at my house because they needed a place to sleep? Not sure why but they did, so i put them up in my basement on a couch and an old queen size mattress and an hour later(in dream time) they need to leave. They have to go to chicago(which is where i live now, in the dream i am at my parents house in Blue Bell, PA) and for some reason Chase Utley is going to drive in his 1989 Honda Civic.

So as they are leaving they are signing something and i read the inscription and its to RickSchuBlues and with it, is tickets to the World Series. And then i ask Ryan Howard to sign something for me and he just scribbles an unintelligible line on a piece of paper and walks out.

Weird hUh?

Utley's giving WS tix to RSB!? Far out dream! LOL.

Who got the couch & who got the mattress?

Yeah, that was no dream. Those Series tickets arrived this morning. Uts & Ryno know what's up.

Yeah, that was no dream. Those Series tickets arrived this morning. Uts & Ryno know what's up.

other than dreaming about two dudes, that's an awesome dream.

If you have time today, stop by Dan McQuade's blog at Philadelphia Weekly, where I hash out a Q&A season preview.

http://willdo.philadelphiaweekly.com/

Jason did an interview with Dan McQuade (I think that’s his name) over at Philadelphia Will Do. Basically a very quick summary of the Phil’s off season and prospects for the coming season.

Apparently he holds his commenters in high regard.

The big surprise is that apparently he may be the father of Anna Nicole Smith’s baby.

And pay no attention to that headshot. That's from about five years ago when I was in peak running shape, two years before I starting packing on the blogger bulge.

Guess we were typing at the same time, and yes everyone the last part was a joke.

Who got the couch & who got the mattress?

Ryan Howard was the mattress.

It's time to take a break from Beerleaguer when you start dreaming about RickSchuBlues.

Willard: This is incorrect: "if Pat is a .258 hitter, 25.8% of the time he has an AB he'll get a hit in his "protection" role - how "big" the hit is depends on how Howard was handled in the plate appearance before him. The other 74.2% of the time he'll make an out."

It is true that 25.8% of the time he'll get a hit, but he only makes an out 61% of the time. The remaining 13.2% are walks. In fact, Burrell makes fewer outs per appearance than anyone in the lineup except for Howard.

pat burrell is an amazing topic that never seems to end. the guy was 7th in mvp voting in 05.

if he cuts his looking k's in half and has the same season he had last year, he'll be a fan favorite.

To quote Earl Weaver, "outs are the most precious commodity in baseball." The team with players who make the fewest outs per appearance usually wins.

clout - i don't know if that's directed at me specifically, but i'm talking only from a public perspective standpoint, not a production standpoint. of course, if he hit into a ton of 6-4-3er's he'll be just as booed.

Tony: no kidding!

Speaking of bulge, perusing that link to the "Philadelphia Will Do" piece will also give you your first glimpse of Antonio Alfonseca in Santa Claus-suit red.

You give good interview, Jason - and it was a nice tip of the cap to the peanut gallery, as well.

I wish i could take a break from beerleaguer, but considering i can get my phillies trade rumors here faster than i can with yahoo(which is what i used to have on my screen at work) i have to be on here.


I have to agree that at this point we all have to come to terms with Pat Burrell. It is honestly, not worth trading him and i'll take his inconsitent bat. His fielding is poor but, considering how short left field is at CBP theres gonna be alot of homers out there anyways, nothing Burrell can do about that. (Cole Hamels and Freddy Garcia Beware). Honestly, if your pitching at that park, you might as well throw your fastballs down the middle because at least they have to go 400 feet there. As much as i do miss his production i'm sadly thankful we don't have to watch Abreu fiddle with the ball in the right field corner anymore, it was like a blind guy trying to find a fat girls...sorry.


Maybe helms can hit 280 and if he can, then theres our fifth. It probably won't happen but oh well.

I think Pat Burrell should hit third honestly. Rather see him chase extra base hits and HR's before i see him chase base hits.

Yup...hot stove has died. I am completley against rowand for pitching at this point. We need him in the OF. Maybe if Bourne ends up breaking camp and being productive, we can trade Rowand at the Dead Line. By that point, Milwaukee will be weak at OF and maybe we can pick up Horacio Ramirez on the cheap.

Let's Go Phils!


...Horacio Ramirez?!

Street & Smith picks the Phillies to win the NL east. Athlon has them finishing second but winning the WC. (I bought the Athlon, anyhow.)

mm: That was some good drugs you were on last night.

Horacio Ramirez is with Seattle. And Milwaukee has so many outfielders (Jenkins, Hall, Hart, Clark, Mench, Gross, Nix) that they want to deal some. They'd be the last team needing OF.

But rock on.

Philadelphia had the second-lowest total of sacrifice bunts in the National League in 2006, just ahead of the Cubs, and had the NL's lowest batting average at .092. Better efficiency would lead to more scoring opportunities and potentially allow the starters to remain in the game longer.

I know a pitchers job is to pitch (get batters out), but in the NL bunting is crucial, and a .125-.150 average would go a long way to making the offense overall more productive.

mm: That was some good drugs you were on last night.

I apologize, i actually was...

my bad!

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