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Tuesday, February 06, 2007

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Nice. I'll be sure to tune in.

Perfect! Who but Beerleaguer to discuss the Jacobs and Tottens of the world?

Any chance of getting the audio on here after it is broadcast?

the internet stream on WIP's website works if you use netscape.

hey guys, i know this is off-topic and I'm not sure this has been discussed before, but did anyone catch the Chad Johnson NFL Network commercial? I believe the Howitzer may be in the background during the Martha Stewart-Reggie Bush scene. Pretty cool if it is him.

I will make sure to tune in. Tune in to Sartare since he is on at 9 PM in the West Coast.

For an easy link to WIP's streaming audio line, just go to Wiki and type "wip am." Link is enclosed about 3/4 of the way down the page.

Thanks, MG. To save everyone the trouble, it's here.

So, any chance to listen for those of us going to sleep before midnight?

Does WIP archive?

I will be long gone by midnight tonight. It would be cool to hear though! Congrats on being on WIP!

Thanks, Casey.

Whoa - I just saw that Brett Myers lost over 30 pounds. Is this old news?

It's true. Randy Miller confirmed on 610 that Myers is down about 30 pounds. Excellent news. Very exciting.

Listening to 610 right now I'm happy to finally hear some baseball talk instead of Eagles!

jay, you just got announced as coming up. if you're reading this, don't forget to relay the latest rowand-burrell outfield conversation.

So am I. The birds are great but they're yesterday's story 'til next fall. It's baseball season now!

Jay's on!

Good job J-Dog!

ha! brian just said beerlager! i could go for a beerlager right now. good spot, though.

haha at beerlager
Real good job Jason, really informative, and also some nice publicity for what really is the best blog on the internet.

Nice job Jason, but I still don't like the Rowand - Linebrink deal.

Sorry for all the posts, but I like what Brian was suggesting with the Jacque Jones/Lieber deal.

Is there any way we can do a straight up deal? How's the Cubs rotation?

Here's the link to that Chad Johnson commercial featuring Howard.... www.ifilm.com/video/2819646/ collection/18373/minisite/superbow

www.ifilm.com/video/2819646/ collection/18373/minisite/superbowl ***

Congrats Jason, as always, you the man!

If anyone is interested, I managed to record the interview:
http://www.ballssticksstuff.com/2007/02/1237.html

Way to to, Jason. Teriffic interview.

Tom, thanks for posting the interview. Great job turned in by "the head blogmaster"! I like your views on the possible Linebrink trade and your takes on Hermanson and Bisenius. The Phils definitely need to upgrade some of the pieces in their bullpen.

Nice interview Jason. Although I would have yelled "MCNABB SUCKS" at the end to fit in with the WIP crowd.

Good Deal, getting on the Radio Jason. Wish we picked it up down here in the Delta.

I have a general question for everybody. THis may sound ridiculous, but when someone says "Are you going to Spring Training", what does that actually mean? Surely (And this may sound increasingly studpid) no one is actually going for the entire duration of ST. I mean, unless someone was taking all their vacation time for the year to do it, or they have more money than they know what to do with. I would like to go, but I cant just head on down to Florida any old time. Wish I could but I cant. If any of you can, more power to you and enjoy it.


Myers is down over 30 lbs!

Damn, just damn thats good. thats REAL good.

" believe the Howitzer may be in the background.."

Don't you mean The Reaper, Deep Six or The Black Bull.

Thanks to Tom on ballssticksstuff.com for posting the Jason interview. Unfortunately my work computer is speakerless. I tried to download Tom's Jason WIP mp3 onto a flash drive to take home with me, but the Windows Media Player said that I can't make a copy of the file. Hopefully, I can listen to it at home tonight on the old slow dial up. If not, I'll bring some earbuds to work. Thanks again to Jason for being interviewed and Tom for making it available.

The audio sounds great, Tom! Very clear. Much appreciated!

Nice! Congrats Jason. Haven't had the chance to listen yet, but will surely do so once I get home from work.

great interview. i enjoy staretare when i happen to turn him on. that's pretty hardcore he's in an nl only fantasty league.

Good stuff Jason, and thanks to Tom G for the audio.

It's funny, the stuff Jason talked about is pretty standard fare here, but I imagine it was a nice releif for Phillies fans from the "Burrell is not Dimaggio" crap.

Good to see on Myers. A lot of people here were down on him, but it might be possible that the Boston incident served as a wake up call to get his life in order. He is still a very young person, I'm hoping that he can mature into a decent person as well as focusing on training.

On the Lieber - Jones thing, I would give an unequivocal NO!

Jones is projected to hit .263/.320/.456 this year in Chicago. He simply isn't productive enough to be an everyday RF. Vic is likely to put up better numbers (at least OBP, which is more important for the guy who will probably hit 2nd), is a better defensive player, has more speed, and is more likely to break out.

The problem with trading Lieber, as has been pointed out often, is that the team will need 25-30 starts from their sixth starter, and right now, there is no one to fill this role if Lieber is traded.

I have problems understanding where kdon comes up with the "need [for] 25-30 starts from their sixth starter". There is no sixth starter slot. I daresay that at least 95% of the starts last year were from the standard 5 man rotation, whether at that point in time it was Floyd, Madsen, Brito or Wolf. We don't need a sixth starter sitting in the bullpen waiting for his "25-30 starts". We need a solid rotation that stays healthy and pitches all year.

Fun facts on 5 starters. In modern baseball history it is rare for a team to use only 5 starting pitchers in one season, but the Mariners had 162 starts from 5 starters in 2003. Do these names look familiar..Freddy Garcia, Jamie Moyer, Ryan Franklin, Gil Meche, Joel Pineiro.

Nice work on 'IP, JW. You sounded a hundred times more informed than the host. Perhaps it won't be long until we see you going toe-to-toe with Conlin on DNL!

kdon's numbers may be too high (25-30) but the point is a good one. moyer is 100, hamels is hamels and eaton is eaton. the phil's need a decent pitcher in case one goes down for a month or two.

i personally don't do the rowand to sd deal. the outfield right now isn't amazing offensively but i am more optimistic than others when it comes to victorino. to take rowand out of that group (and even add a guy like jones, who i don't like a little bit) would hurt.

this brings up an interesting question in my mind -- why not start the phillies bloggers or beerleaguer, whatever, podcast and add it to itunes? its a big deal that jay got invited to do a show on a commercial radio station, but it's not something he or anyone else needs to wait around to do. a weekly digest of the happening, espeically during the season, could make for a good five minutes of content. just sayin.

gr - the guy at baseballmusings does this sometimes i think. i've never listened to it though.

here is the paper i did on the brett/ kim myers boston incident for my law school seminar on domestic violence. sorry for the delay in getting this to those that were interested.

http://www.mediamax.com/timismello/Hosted/myers%20dv%20paper.doc

Jason

Thanks for coming on. Very informative and well done. We'll do it again...

Great insight on some of the lesser known information about the ballclub.

Brian Startare

Tim, I tried to go to your Brett Myers paper's site and my company's "prohibited site" blocker came up, preventing me from going there. It must be the naked pictures illustrating your paper! I'll check it out later from at home.

Finally a real news story. Losing 30 pds is a big deal and finally might signal that Myers is serious about being focused for an entire season

In 2005, Myers faded in August and was a very mediocre pitcher in September. In 2006, Myers was awful in August and rebounded to have an above average Sept. I am willing to bet that if Myers keeps the weight off and stays in shape, that he doesn't experience a swoon in August or Sept.

Might be a little bold but I think this is a sign that Myers has a breakthrough year. Not predicting a 20-win season but I do think that Myers is going to win 16-18 games and post an ERA around 3.50. Keep my fingers crossed.

Just listened to the interview--great work Jason, and thanks to Tom for recording it.

It's a long march, but there's hope yet for bringing Philly baseball fandom into the 20th (if not the 21st) century ;)

Hey djafi, just in time to give a Good Phight reference:

To those who don't think the Phillies will need a sixth starter, or that 25-30 wins is a high estimate, I refer you here:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/story/2006/12/13/205012/82

The most important number here is 113.5, the average number of starts ML teams got from their opening day 5. That leaves close to !50! starts that may have to be picked up by someone other than Myers/Hamels/Garcia/Eaton/Moyer.

This again, is the average, and while Myers, Garcia and Moyers (maybe) are good bets to stay healthy, Hamels is still unceratain and Eaton is close to a lock to miss at least a few weeks. Who, again, do we have to fill those 50 starts?

I don't buy that argument. If you have a surplus in one area and a deficiency in another, you try to balance out the two if at all possible. Keeping a trading chip in reserve as insurance is all well and good if you're the NL All-star team; otherwise, it's folly. Should the Phillies also seek to acquire another starting infield and outfield because of the possibility one of the original starters will be injured during the season?

kdon: I'm suspect about the number of starts required in excess of the opening day five.
Does that include starters filling in for a regular who starts the season on the DL? Does it include an original pitcher among the opening five who is removed from the rotation in the latter part of the season because of ineffectiveness? Or is it strictly due to injuries among the opening five?

Carrying an extra starter is a luxury that the Phils may not be able to afford. True, there is no long-man/emergency starter other than Brito (or perhaps Mazzone), but if Gillick is able to acquire a missing piece for the bullpen or OF in exchange for Lieber, it might be a better trade-off.

IMHO, it all depends on what Lieber might bring in a trade.


MG: I agree, it appears Myers is turning the corner, hope its more than just a PR charade.

RSB and vor, I think you miss the point. It is not a "luxury" or "insurance" to have a starter beyond your original 5. It is a neccesity. It happens to almost every single team, and is especially likely to happen on a team where 2 of the 5 starters are serious injury risks, and another is 43.

The team needs someone to pitch in somewhere between 25-50 games as much as it needs bullpen help.

And vor this:
"Does that include starters filling in for a regular who starts the season on the DL? Does it include an original pitcher among the opening five who is removed from the rotation in the latter part of the season because of ineffectiveness? Or is it strictly due to injuries among the opening five?"

is irrelevant. It only matters that you DO need more than 5 regular starters.

Also, RSB, OF and IF injuries/ineffectiveness occur far less regularly than they do with pitchers. That is why there is always a premium on pitchers and not everyday players.

Also, RSB, OF and IF injuries/ineffectiveness occur far less regularly than they do with pitchers. That is why there is always a premium on pitchers and not everyday players.

Name me the last team, or even the first, who went into a season with six starting pitchers, when they had holes elsewhere on the team. It won't happen.

I think it depends on Lieber big time. If he shows impressive in ST, his value goes up and a useful piece will probably be the return. If he is more like last year, than we keep him because he won't get us as much. I just find 7.5 million a high number for a 6th starter/bullpen arm whether it be Eaton or Lieber.

And I don't think it is completely irrelevant. I don't think there's a risk that Eaton or Moyer can't start a game because of talent like Floyd last year. And going in healthy can't be underestimated. I agree that 6+ SPs probably will end up being used but if a setup arm comes back for Lieber. I'll take the 60 games he pitches in over the indeterminant amount of starts we may need from a 6th man. Brian Lawrence type flyer guy for under 3 million is who I would want as a 6th man.

"Name me the last team, or even the first, who went into a season with six starting pitchers, when they had holes elsewhere on the team."

RSB, EVERY team goes into the season with six starters, except for rarities like the 1993 Phillies or the Mariners. The only question is when teams use those six starters. Most teams only go in with five *proven* starters, and that is what causes everyone problems.

The 2005 Red Sox started the season with:
Clement
Schilling
Wakefield
Arroyo
Wells
Miller

You know what happened, Schilling got hurt and Miller proved to be an OK fill-in.

In 2006, they thought they had a surplus of starters, so they traded Arroyo, and Schilling got hurt, and Wells stunk, and they deeply missed Arroyo.

I'm surprised that as a somewhat old school guy, you don't buy the line "you can never have enough pitching." It is one of the most true cliches in sports!

I would also argue that it much easier to patch up a bullpen then a rotation.

kdon may say what he says about a sixth starter with an authoritative delivery, but he has not convinced me that a major league 25 man roster has a spot reserved for a 6th starter.

kdon: I won't disagree about the need for a 6th starter, only that few teams are able to commit $4-8M to fill that role.

The long man/emergency starter could be Fabio's spot to lose. He started for the DR in the Caribbean WS and is slated to start for Ottawa if he doesn't head north out of spring training. We'll see how he's used in spring training - if he's used every 5th day and pitches effectively for 4 to 5 innings at a time, then he'll probably start the season in Ottawa and will be brought up as a starter if necessary.

Sure they do LF, it's called the bullpen!

I agree vor that it would be expensive to have an $8M bullpen guy, but the Orioles are paying Dannys Baez $6M per year, and I would rather have Lieber or Eaton over him, considering they have the ability to step in when (NOT IF!) the team needs a starter.

kdon, I agree that your "6th starter" is really someone in the bullpen or at AAA, but the reality is that this guy will not be named Eaton or Lieber. He might be named Madson or Castro. Also, this "6th starter" will be expected to pitch in relief situations. I doubt that doughnut boy would go for that.

Jason and Tom, I was able to download the WIP interview of the Grand Master Beerleaguer this evening and was able to save it on the old home PC hard drive. It was weird hearing a voice that I had never heard before. What was weird is that Jason sounds like tape recordings that I have heard of my own voice. It may just be that we both speak Philadelphia hinterlandese. His pauses and pronunciations were like mine. That aside, the whole interview was really cool. Thanks for both of you.

kdon, I remember being impressed but not convinced by that piece. I think Voice of Reason has it right here; no question that teams go into the season with contingency plans for starters beyond the 5 in the rotation, but they don't generally allocate $7.5 million for it.

Also, I think the Phils are in relatively good shape for extra starters even without Lieber. You've got:

--J.A. Happ, a command guy with high K rates through his pro career

--Justin Germano, the righty acquired for Cormier who's pitched well through the high minors

--Fabio Castro, who could begin the season in the Phils bullpen but switch to the rotation if need be

--Brian Mazone, the veteran finesse lefty coming off a superb year for S/WB

--Zack Segovia, who went 11-5 at Reading last year

I'd be concerned about any of those guys being counted on for 30 starts, but as fill-ins I think it's a pretty solid group. The Phils likely get more from trading Lieber for a current need than hanging on to him with an eye to the difference between him and any of these possible "6th starters."

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