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Friday, January 26, 2007

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"and not only that, was hitting better by the end of the year"

How could he have hit any worse?

Lets not kid ourselves. Helms is the man at 3B.

C'mon, we all know that Abraham No-Hit Nunez should be the starter at 3rd.

...

Not quite!

How could you not feel comfortable with your favorite team's success in the hands of this guy?

I didn't know Helms was a high motor guy. The media has been saying that about him all winter though. I always thought of him as a slow, lumbering, station to station guy that tries to hit bombs every time he's up.

I can see him standing in the box and gazing down towards that generous 325 LF line and trying to yank everything thrown to him next year. A la PtB.

Honestly, I'm glad to have Wes Helms at 3rd just because I couldn't stand Bell or Nunez. Who knows how well he'll play for us, but I'm willing to bet better than those 2.

Nunez will play everyday...pinch D in the 8th or 9th

Rumors- from Buster Olney "• The Phillies and Padres have kicked around a possible Aaron Rowand trade, a discussion that could continue after spring training begins. The two sides could have a natural match: The Phillies are looking for bullpen help, and the Padres would like to add a veteran outfielder, and a defense that included Rowand and Mike Cameron and Brian Giles could be exceptional."

I'm cool with this if it means we get Scott Linebrink for the bullpen, and then trade Lieber for an outfielder.

Also, the Lieber to Pirates rumor is starting to heat up again.

to follow up my thought of the above rumors-

trade Rowand for Cla Meredith or Scott Linebrink (huge improvement for the bullpen).

move Victorino to CF, and trade Jon Lieber for Jacque Jones. I'm not saying Jones is an awesome outfielder, but he'd do fine.

I checked No Hit Nunez' batting game log last year. From May 17th through Sept. 13th, except for six days, Nunez' BA was below .200. At the end of Sept. 19th, his BA was .211. He played 11 more games and his ending BA was .211, meaning that he hit .211 for his last 11 games. When Cholly says that Nunez "was hitting better by the end of the year", I guess Cholly means batting .211 is better than batting .180!! What a load of crap. I'm sure there's got to be a good fielding utility infielder that can hit, let's say .230. I'm am sick of seeing Nunez at the plate in a Phillies uniform.

Lake Fred- I find No-Hit Nunez to be near useless.

Carson--How about dealing Lieber for Brad Wilkerson? He is both better and more versatile defensively than Jacque Jones. Wilkerson has a reasonable chance of replacing Dellucci's offensive production. Of course, all this assumes that his shoulder is ok.

In my opinion, I'd much rather have Jacque Jones instead of Brad Wilkerson, just my thoughts.

I think Wes Helms will be just fine. Could be a little surprise. I don't like Nunez.

Linebrink would be a nice fit.

Was it me or did Wilkerson always have great games at CBP? I think I was at a game where he hit for the cycle against the Phils?

I would want more than Jaque Jones or Wilkerson for Lieber. If the market is that soft in him (no pun intended), then we should head into the season with six starters.

I don't think there is a chance to get Linebrink for Rowand...we would almost certainly have to throw in some prospects.

If the Phillies had addressed RF with Huff or Nixon, I would be OK with trading Rowand, but do we really want to see a Werth/Garcia platoon in RF?

Keep in mind Lieber is due to get $7.5 mil this year. The way he's been pitching lately, he's not worth that. It might be tough to convince a team to take him on in exchange for someone they really value. Unless, of course, they're desperate. Which is why Gillick is doing a good job by waiting to hear the right deal.

zach -

Lieber is worth more than 7.5M, christ - Gil Meche is a 5 yr/$55M guy, and I guarnatee that Lieber is better than him.

Lieber is also in a contract year, and doesn't look like he wants to stop playing... He'll be picked up, and will want to prove himself this year.

I would much rather have Wilkerson (career 1.057 OPS at CBP) than Jacque Jones. the Phils have become one of the best offenses in the NL with high-OBP guys like Wilkerson, not with poor-man's-Andre-Dawson types like Jones.

I wish we could put the Rowand rumors to rest. I would bet my 1988 Fleer set that he will not be traded before the season starts.

Kdon, You hit the nail on the head. At this point, in this year, we are going to need Rowand. We already had time to address the outfield while planning to move Aaron, but that ship has sailed. But with Victorino still unproven this season, Kdon asks the perfect question. What if Vic. only hits .250, what if Burrell's production drops (while hitting .250, of course), and then to have a platoon in right? Both our offense and defense could suffer. After all, Rowand is not that bad.

Well, last year, Lieber: 4.93, 9-11, 100 SO; Meche: 4.48, 11-8, 156 SO. So last year at least, Meche was a little better. That's not a $4 million difference, but that's the market these days.

In terms of a trade, teams will want to go after pitchers signed to the more reasonable contracts of yesteryear, so I'm just saying his contract is an obstacle. He will get picked up though. I don't have much of a point.

yeah, but Zach, you do have to factor in NL/AL and ballparks. A 4.48 in the AL is much better than a 4.93 in the NL.

Some nice fantasies here, but here are some facts:

1. Wilkerson is penciled in as the Rangers everyday LF. They're not gonna deal him for the likes of Lieber.

2. The Cubs would LOVE to dump Jacque Jones, but he's owed more than $10M and I can't see PG having any interest. Not to mention the guy is unusable vs. LHP, has a hideous BB/K ratio and is mediocre in the field.

3. Cla Meredith's season was a total fluke and in no way indicative of what he'll produce. Linebrink, on the other hand, is the real deal. Not sure that dealing Rowand for him is a good trade since it would leave an already thin OF even thinner. And anyone who thinks Lieber can get them a quality everyday outfielder is dreaming.

4. If Wes Helms' glove isn't a total horror and he hits RHP he'll play every day. If not, he'll platoon with Nunez.

Linebrink is the real deal. On a team this thin in bullpen, he would be a tremendous addition. I would be careful about the outfield, however. My feeling is Cholly and company expect way too much from Victorino and Werth. In order to fill the Rowand void if such a deal is made, say goodbye to a top prospect, on top of Lieber.

Right Dude, forgot about that.

Dude and Zach, since we are making adjustments, you might wan to factor in the ballpark.

Park Factor, 100 is Average (Ranking)

Citizens 106 (8)
Safeco 88 (29)

Considering this vast difference, I think Lieber's ERA is MORE impressive than Meche's last year. Also, if you look beyond 2006, Lieber blows Meche out of the water. He is still a very valuable pitcher and the Phils shouldn't give him away.

Wilkerson is better than Jones, but as clout rightly points out, he ain't going anywhere.

Please, no more Texas Rangers.

Amen! No more Rangers! Not even a RH reliever in high-A ball, please.

I would rather have Helms see a majority of the time at 3B. Get decent offense and I can potentially live with his weak glove.

Nunez is completely worthless. It just baffles my mind this guy is making $2.5 million this year. Can't hit for average, power, and he is not even a reliable contact hitter. Plus, he is a horrendous PH (barely over .200 in his career).

His only two supposed assets (speed and defense) are both overrated by some of the posters on this blog. Nunez has above average speed but he is not threat to steal a base. At best, he is a good bet to go from 1B-3B, 2B-C on a single.

Plus, his defense is above average at best. Look at his various defensive statistics from last year and for his career. Above average ratings for ZR, Fielding PCT, and E but nothing special.

If Nunez was Brooks Robinson or a Gold Glove caliber fielder, then I would advocate him getting more time at 3B but that is just not the case.

At least when the Phils' have Nunez and the pitcher up for an inning, I know I can skip listening/watching to do something else because the Phils won't score.

Cla was unhittable last year. As for trading Rowand for Linebrink or him, that would be great except it's a little optimistic to think Leiber will bring you back a quality or even mediocre outfielder to replace him. If we couldn't get bullpen help for him, how is he going to get you an outfielder?

Abraham O. Nunez. From now on, I am just going to call him "Odious"

I don't know who'd I'd take for Rowand or Lieber. Lieber couldn't get Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates (who could blame the Pirates?), so Lieber won't get much. Maybe he could go to DC for Ryan Church. As far as Rowand, I agree that Gillick should have brought in Nixon or Huff before even thinking about moving Rowand. Rowand is too valuable to the club right now.

Does anyone know when individual game tickets are supposed to go on sale?

Abraham O(fer) Nunez

The day cannot come soon enough when Nunez is no longer a part of this team! An overall dreadful player who last year had no business getting anything more than a one year contract for less than a million dollars. Think of that, Abe "No-Hit" Nunez is a multi-millionaire! And stuck here for another season... Ugh...

Abraham "Oh No" Nunez

Nevermind, I called (slow day at work). February 23rd.

Well, no more worrying about Arthur Lee. Back to Seattle he goes!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2743892

Nunez isn't as bad as he showed last year. I think he'll be at least as valuable the the Phillies in '07 as Wes Helms.

Keith Law (espn writer) ranked the Phillies' farm system 29th out of 30 teams. He writes:

Thin system which got thinner by the sudden rise of Cole Hamels. The closest solid-average prospect to the majors here is Carlos Carrasco, who spent the year in low-A.

What about:
Joe Bisenius,
J.A. Happ,
Scott Mathieson & Scott Mitchinson,
Fabio Castro,
Yoel Hernandez,
Zack Segovia,
as well as Carlos Carrasco
?

And will somebody PLEASE remind me who we traded Jake Blalock for? I know he went to the Rangers but i forget who for - was it Dellucci?

Great, Ace, eight half-decent prospects out of how many minor league players? And I didn't catch any names of position players among them. No wonder 'now is the time'.

Castro

my bad...Castro was for haigwood. put down the bottle, Reed

maybe it was that all the Rangers & Mariners stuff blends into one

I included P only in that post, btw.

Castro-for-Haigwood
but who'd Jake Blalock go for?

Apr 1,2006 - Traded by Phillies with Robinson Tejeda to Rangers for David Dellucci and cash

Jake Blalock that is.

He was ranked in the top 10 of Phillies prospects by Scout.com and we traded him away for what? Essentially another draft pick.

Pat Gillick is horrible at building farm systems.

Would you rather Gillick have kept Blalock, a middling prospect at best, than add Dellucci to the roster? Again, I'm not Gillick's biggest fan, but that's really an unfounded knock against him. It isn't Gillick's job to 'build' a farm system. It's his job to balance the team's chances of winning now and in the future. He doesn't have much to work with. You only included pitchers in the list because the Phillies *have* no prospects who aren't pitchers. Not one.

Some might consider Costanzo the best position prospect we have - others might point to Golson. Who knows?

Sooner or later the team will have to endure a fire sale and I have a feeling it'll happen before we win a championship with the current group here simply because we don't HAVE enough position prospects down on the farm to take the place if one gets injured for any length of time. That'll force us to trade for someone to take their place which will eat up even MORE prospects.

I hate to be the pessimist, but I'm not too confident about the Phils winning a World Championship anytime within the next 5-10 yrs.

ace: If Scout.com ranked Blalock in the top 10 of Phillies prospects then scout.com isn't very good. I wouldn't have put him in the top 20 (although because the Phils position prospects are so awful I might've been forced to).
Blalock is a bad-glove corner outfielder who spent 3 full years in A ball before finally graduating to AA at age 23 where he showed modest power and weak OB skills. Maybe he'll have a cup of coffee in The Show someday, but anything else would be a big surprise.

ace: Nobody looks better in a uniform than Greg Golson. Plus he's strong and runs like the wind. Unfortunately, he has no baseball skills at all on offense. Not a clue. The Phils love players like this. I doubt he'll even get as far as Kevin Roberson.

lol but clout! he's gonna become the next Reggie Jackson!!

Golson is a CP....Cant play

updated Baseball America's top 10 Phillies prospects...
. Carlos Carrasco, rhp
2. Kyle Drabek, rhp
3. Adrian Cardenas, ss/2b
4. Edgar Garcia, rhp
5. Scott Mathieson, rhp
6. Josh Outman, lhp
7. Michael Bourn, of
8. J.A. Happ, lhp
9. Matt Maloney, lhp
10. Greg Golson, of

only Carrasco is listed in the top 100 overall in MLB prospects.

Most interesting thing about the article on Baseball America, has this interesting tidbit, "As a result, general manager Pat Gillick had assistant GM Mike Arbuckle got more involved in the draft (2006). The club's scouting director from 1993-2001, Arbuckle oversaw drafts that included Scott Rolen, Adam Eaton, Rollins, Randy Wolf, Burrell, Ryan Madson, Myers, Utley and Howard."

If that was the case, who had the final say in Phils' draft picks from 2002-05. Was it Ed Wade or someone else in the Phils' organization?

Basically, with a few exceptions, the drafts from 2002-05 look pretty horrible and account for the generally barren outlook of the Phils' minor league system.

Does anyone on this blog know who had final say on the Phils' draft picks from 2002-05?

IMO, any trades PG makes [Rowand for Linebrink, etc.] will happen after ST starts. I agree with others, Linebrink would be a nice pick-up, but I believe PG will wait to see what they really have in Victorino, Werth, Garcia, etc. before they pull the trigger on a Rowand trade.

Bill James Primer: What is mistaken for good pitching can in fact be attributed to defense.

Having Rowand in CF and Victorino in RF will make a big difference to this pitching staff. Besides, if Helms plays, with PB in LF the Phils are already going to be definitely deficient defensively on the left side. Can they afford to sacrifice defense elsewhere as well?

I would be very wary of trading an outfielder of Rowand's ability for any pitcher who will pitch only one inning/ game. Who is likely to have more impact throughout the entire season? Rowand has already demonstrated a tremendous ability to save runs.

Irony of the week: It appears that Coste and Karim Garcia were teammates on the 2002 Buffalo Bisons. Will Coste lose his spot on the roster for a retread?

It's statements like this that I completely don't understand- "Nunez isn't as bad as he showed last year. I think he'll be at least as valuable the the Phillies in '07 as Wes Helms." ~RSB

Nunez may be adequate with the glove, but NOTHING else. When during the course of his career, has he ever shown the capability to do anything close to what Wes Helms has? Never!

Carson: The only possible way that Nunez could be as valuable as Helms this season would be if Helms fails to hit righty pitching at all and is a disaster with the glove.

Nunez is a lifetime .240 hitter with no power and very poor OB skills. He had one lucky freak year with the Cards in 2005 before reverting to his statistical norm. He is an average utility infielder. Nothing more, nothing less.

Clout- I completely agree. That's why I don't understand how RSB can make a statement like that.

Here's why, Carson: Nunez hit .285 with 5 homers and 44 RBI for a division-winner in 2005 - not exactly ancient history. Is he that good? Well, he *was* that year. At the very least, he's capable of that kind of output, even if he's not likely to duplicate it. If you choose to firmly believe Nunez is the .211 hitter you watched last year instead of a guy - the same guy - who hit .285 the previous year, then I suppose my statement doesn't make any sense. If it can somehow be proven that Nunez was on some he-man substance in '05, thus negating his performance, it shall remain a possibility that he can return to that level of production. Call it a freak year, call it an aberration, and maybe it was - but there's no reasonable claim to be made that he couldn't approach it again in his career. Even if he's somewhere in between the '05 and '06 mileposts, he's going to contribute with his glove probably as much as Helms contributes with his bat.

This is a case where we simply disagree RSB. Nunez over the course of his career has been a complete and utter waste at the plate in all facets. His glove is good, I'll give you that, but I don't see in what alternate universe that Nunez is even comparable to Helms, and Helms isn't even that good...so what does that make Nunez?

It makes Nunez the no-hit wonder that he is. Too bad we have to watch him yet again.

RSB-Totally disagree on Nunez. '05 was his best season ever and the thing he did that year was hit for average. Nunez has had alot more seasons where he has almost more like a really good-hitting pitcher (.200-.230). Plus, Nunez is only averages a HR 1 in 125 ABs in his career. Get more power out of a 9-Volt battery.

Basically, Nunez hits slightly better than a good-hitting pitcher.

it's hard to argue that Nunez's 2005 season was even that good - 20 XBH? 37 walks? 0-for-1 stealing bases? of the 80 National League players with 450+ PA in 2005, Nunez ranks 64th in OPS, 69th in slugging, 75th in isolated power (behind even Juan Pierre!), and 76th in secondary average. by any measure *other* than batting average, Nunez was one of the worst everyday players in the National League.

I think it's safe to say, that even during No-Hit Nunez's career year of '05, he's always sucked!

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