Baseball Think Factory’s computer-simulated season, based on projected performance, uncovered a few surprises in the Phillies 2007 rotation, including marked improvement from right-hander Jon Lieber.
BTF, which releases ZIPs annually for each team, is forecasting a 4.43 ERA and 114/33 K/BB ratio over 193.0 innings for the 37-year-old right-hander. That’s notably better than Adam Eaton; they see him at 4.72 ERA over just 141.0 innings, with a 104/44 K/BB ratio.
The biggest disappointment might be Brett Myers, who’s projected for a slight dip. BTF sees a 4.08 ERA over 205 innings with 31 home runs allowed, with a 186/64 K/BB ratio. Production like this would roughly place him just inside the top 20 of starting pitchers in the National Leauge. It's good, but maybe not what what some expect from the 26-year-old. They list Steve Rogers and Mike Witt as his top comps.
Cole Hamels, still 23, is expected to have the best pound-for-pound season of any starter; they see him at 3.78 ERA with 169 Ks in 162 innings. The biggest surprise could be 44-year-old left-hander Jamie Moyer, expected to hold his own to the tune of a 4.30 ERA over 201 innings.
And for all you Chris Coste fans, one poster summed up his projection this way. "Chris Coste, meet Earth. Earth, this is Chris Coste." Check out Coste, Freddy Garcia, Ryan Howard and the rest of the projections here.