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Sunday, September 03, 2006

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This absolutely is the kind of game a playoff team has to win. Myers is our ace and Cormier is a Triple-A pitcher. Hopefully, the emotion of Game 1 will carry over.
P.S. Howard is now certain to hit at least 60 HRs, the first non-steroid hitter to do so since Roger Maris. I don't see how anyone else can be MVP regardless of whether this team makes post-season.

If Howard gets to 60, that should be made a really big deal in baseball. It's a great chance to thumb our noses at McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds, and say, hey, this guy's for real, check it out.

A hitter on pace for 62 HR, 156 RBI, .300+ BA, and OPS exceeding 1.000 NOT getting MVP? Baseball would be nuts. Plus his fielding is getting better faster than his hitting.

Howard is so larger than life right now, it makes Burrell look that much worse. I wonder if Pat is aware they just won the most thrilling game of the season. Nah. Probably not.

Burrell in that five hole is bad news for the Phillies. He just doesn't seem at all dangerous at this point.

Jason: Pat, like Von Hayes, is destined to suffer his entire career from great expectations. He was the first player taken in the draft. He was going to be the next Mike Schmidt. He would make us forget about wasting a pick on J.D. Drew.

Baseball is an inexact science (see the wretched C.J. Henry, hitting .227 at Lakewood.) PB is never going to be a superstar. He probably should've gone late first round. He is what he is: A very reliable power source in leftfield and, when he's healthy, a 100 RBI guy every year. Every team wants to have that at its OF corners. Will he ever be a team leader? No. Will he ever hit .300? No. Will he ever be a great fielder? No. But can he be an important piece of a playoff team led by Howard and Utley. Yes.

I want to see Brett Myers in the dugout talking to Ruiz after his at bat.

Burrell is evidently limited in what he can do right now, however. At his best, he is a power threat. His wrist is affecting that power and production in a big way.

whelkman: in 1927, Babe Ruth hit for 60 HR, 164 RBI, .356 BA and a 1.258 OPS.

he received zero votes for MVP.

Clout: I understand all that. What's telling is just how little this run has included Pat Burrell. Frankly, you hardly see anymore. It looks like there's a party going on in the dugout, and someone forgot to invite Pat. I understand he is what he is, but what's amazing to me is just how far he's fallen, in terms of the players everyone is excited about. And that's amazing for a 100+ RBI man.

ae, they didn't have MVP awards in 1927.

Well, after all that, I'll take the sac fly from Pat. Funny to watch him hit everything to the opposite field the past few weeks.

There's a good hit by Burrell. Opposite field sac fly?

Jason: You're right and I can only surmise that it's because he's hurt. It was the same story in '03 when he hit .209.

He wasn't hurt in '03. He just sucked.

RSB: Yeah, let's dump him. That'll start another win streak going just like getting rid of Abreu caused Howard & Rollins and the rotation to get hot. ROTFLMAO! You're a hoot.

Clout, you're so f'ing boring.

No need to convince you guys but Howard is now leading the NL in slugging, is hitting over .300 now and is way out in front for homers and RBI. He is the real deal MVP candidate.

RSB: there have been MVP awards since 1911. Frank Schulte and Ty Cobb won the first awards.

They weren't BBWAA awards though, which feature the present voting system. Those began in 1931, I believe.

There was an MVP back in '27. Babe Ruth didn't get any votes because he wasn't eligible; until 1929 you could only win the MVP once in a career. Ruth had won it back in 1925. The '27 winner? Lou Gehrig, who got on base at a .474 clip, slugged .765, hit 47 home runs, and drove in 175. Ruth's year was better, but not by much.

I don't see the big problem with Pat, he's had a number of big hits recently. It seems like some people are just bent on hating every Phillie who's been around for more than two seasons (unless it's Rollins, who somehow gets a pass for never quite panning out).

Wait, wha? Rollins hasn't panned out? Three-time all-star, currently starting his fourth game in two days, including big hits and steady D. That Jimmy Rollins, right?

Yeah. He was billed as some sort of star and he's never hit .300 in a season and has a career .329 on-base percentage. How he manages to get selected to all these all-star teams is a mystery to me. I'd rather have Renteria any day.

Yeah, Burrell with his zero all-star appearances, tragically underrated. Rollins hasn't won the Triple Crown yet, but some people still have the gall to cheer for him. I just can't figure it.

When was Rollins ever billed as a star? I'll give you this much, Tray, at least you dump on him when he's going well as opposed to many others who only dump on him when he's cold. Although it doesn't exactly speak too wonderfully about your powers of observation.

I don't have a good feeling about this game.

He's going well for him, but he's still just an average baseball player. Burrell gets on base at a consistently high rate and is a decent power threat each year. This season, in spite of just hitting .260, his on-base percentage is .385. That's second only to Howard on the team. As for his never having made an all-star team, he's an outfielder, not a shortstop, and every year there are several outfielders who have better numbers. It's in no way a mark against him.

Is'nt the Braves BP worse than ours. If so we have a chance here. Myers has been great 10 SO. Cmon Phils!!!

Hats off to Myers for settling in after losing it with the umpire.

You're right J. White coming in. We are gone!!

If you're trying to argue that Burell is a better player than Rollins, I'll register *strong* disagreement, and we'll leave it at that. The only advantage Burrell has is raw power, and even there he has just 24 HRS to Rollins' 19. For average, speed, defense, clutch hitting, and clubhouse presence, Rollins has it all over Burrell, who is a one-dimensional player and that dimension isn't even prominent anymore.

Whoa, check out "Lights Out" White!

Yeah! My apologies Mr White. Walk off Ryano time!

yeah, its been a special day. that performance by howard, and rick white k's three, including the jones boys. mental.

I would say Burrell's a better offensive player and not just because of the power numbers. When you factor in the defense, it may or may not be a wash.

Now, should this game go into extra innings, who do you suggest Manuel throws out there? Is Gordon really available?

Average play by Rollins.

How else is Burrell a better offensive player? Because he walks more? Give me a break.

Great play Jimmy!

If a man wears a Phillies uniform I like him until he does'nt. Rollins contributes in a big way for this team. Pat Burrell also contributes, he cops alot of flak but he is still doing some good things.

Rick White, the one reliever not mentioned in any of the arguments the last two days, mows them down in the 9th and 10th tie game. Is this the best game in the world, or what?

Rick White is doing it out there!

Damn, maybe White should be closing the games. That was a helluva nice outing.

Good game but I want it to end right here.

Jose K has'nt K'd for a while. Good sac bunt Jose. He's doin' O.K as a Phillie. I like it.

Simon looks like he's lost a lot of weight. Didn't he used weigh around 260?

RSB - right now, burrell *is* a better offensive player. his ops is consistently better than j-rolls (currently .887 vs jimmy's .807).

Tray - Jimmy's been about so long, its easy to forget he's only 27. is he a great offensive player yet? no. could he be? maybe. But he's certainly not average. the career obp number you cite gets a big hit 2001-03 because his OBP was 320 or less those years, and at the time he was k'ing more than 100 times each season. since then he's dramatically reduced his k's and his hitting has improved. he works hard at getting better and I for one think he will be.

I mean, if Player A's OPS is nearly a hundred points higher than Player B's, I think Player A's definitely the better offensive player. That's what stats are for. Saying, "yeah, Pat has more power and walks (a whole lot) more, but he's not as fast, and his average is a little lower, and according to me, he's not as good a 'clutch' hitter" just isn't a very good analysis. Just because someone has an edge in more dimensions of the game doesn't mean anything, you're assuming that they're all equally important.

I'm just a little tired of the on-base argument when debating a shortstop and a left fielder. Defense anyone? Kind of important for a shortstop, don't you think. J-Roll just took away a base runner in the 10th inning. Meanwhile, Burrell is so vital, so critical to this series, he was replaced by Roberson.

But if we must talk stats, what about bunting after a hit batsmen, then the Hernandez almost gets hit? Why give him a free one?

ack. we are done.

Well, Tray, why are different offensive facets *not* equally important? Do you want a guy with 22 doubles, 1 triple, and 24 homers, 110 strikeouts, and 0 stolen bases - or 38 doubles, 6 triples, 19 homers, 63 strikeouts, and 32 steals? Is OPS really *the* defining offensive statistic, can it throw a blanket on the comparison I've just drawn?

Tray: Don't expect logic from RSB. There is none. Burrell has clearly been the better offensive player over his career. That said, SS is the most important defensively position on the field. Rollins is a great SS and whatever you get from him on offense, which is a lot compared to other SSs, is icing on the cake.

If you think Chris Roberson replaced Burrell because he is a better player, than you are clueless.

Making personal attacks on Pat Burrell is pointless, like he's costing the phillies games??

fair point, RSB. interestingly, this year pat burrell's runs created is way down on jimmy's (69 vs 88), but last year he was better than jimmy (109 vs 100). since runs created does take into account extra factors like those you'd mentioned, there's still an argument that a healthy burrell is a better offensive player than rollins. not this year though.

If you're going to insist there is a lack of 'logic', Clout, be specific as to your claim. Back up your insults if you're going to casually throw them around.

At this point, I don't think anybody is in a position to speak unfavorably about Coste's defense, in comparison with Ruiz's. Aside from Ruiz's horrific throwing error this inning, the wild pitch, which allowed the second run to score, clearly could have been scored a passed ball.

Let's beat the Fat Man twice!

Yes, because aside from stolen bases and strikeouts (and why exactly is a strikeout so much worse than a fly-out?), OPS covers everything you just said. And of course the rate at which you acutally get on base is a lot more important than stealing a base once you're on. They're not all equally important. Besides, you can't just take raw numbers and not look at averages. For example, you said Burrell's only edge is power and he only has five more home runs. But actually, Rollins has a couple hundred more at-bats this year, so the real number you should be looking at is this one: Burrell hits a home run once every 16 at-bats, Rollins hits one every 31 at-bats. So in actuality, Burrell's really twice as good a home run hitter this year.

RSB: I don't have to. All anyone has to do is open a Baseball Register and look at the stats to see how ridiculous your claim is.

Last 10 games before today, burrell has more runs and rbis than Jimmy Rollins. And how many times replaced by a PR? Burrell is contributing whether you choose to see it or not.

The knock on Ruiz has always been he's too eager to be a cowboy with his arm. That said, the last pitch took a tough bounce. Still, Ruiz cost them there.

It seems like we've had the burrell v. rollins debate before, no, whoops that was burrell v. dellucci debate.

Why is a strikeout worse than a fly out, or a ground ball? Simple, strikeouts can't adavnce runners, contact outs can.

OPS does not 'cover' everything you need to know about a players' offensive merit. Utley's and Burrell's OPS numbers are equal. Does that mean they're equals as baseball players? Not even close. You measure all of a player's abilities and how many weapons he has, how many ways he can beat you. Utley and Rollins have far more in the way of a well-rounded, dynamic range of offensive abilities, and *that* is how you gauge a player offensively.

Yes you do, loudmouth. You have to prove, *logically*, why exactly my citiation that a player's superior totals of extra-base hits, stolen bases, and strikeout ratio are meaningless in the face of the supposedly all-inclusive stat of OPS.

Real Cormier takes the loss for the Reds in a 2-1 loss to the Padres.

Game. It goes back to Clout's original point. You've got to get more than a run off Lance Cormier. Disappointing series.

RSB: All of baseball, except for you, apparently, accepts OPS as the best gauge of a player's offensive value. There are secondary measures as well including steals, HRs per AB, sacrifices, BB/K ratio. But even adding them in, Burrell over his career, has been a better offensive player than Rollins. Again anyone who's not narrow minded can look up these stats. You, of course, are hopeless.

ugh. now falling 2 behind the padres and tied with the damn fish. plus, knackered going into a series against astros. not great.

RSB, OPS has been proved an effective measure of offence. but runs created and gpa include more ways that a player can hurt you in their measurement, and they both show burrell to be the better offensive player than rollins.

An effective measure of offense, granted, but the *only* one which holds any relevance? Are you therefore saying Utley and Burrell have been equally good offensive players this season, as their OPS numbers are identical? Or is it "narrow minded" of me to suggest otherwise?

No, I disagree. It's not how many tools a player has, it's how good his tools are. Rollins can beat you in all sorts of ways but he's not especially likely to beat you in any of them. In any event, at the end of the day we trail the Padres by 1.5 games as they head into a home series against the Rockies. I'm starting to get a bit pessimistic about our chances.

Jason: Cormier career ERA is 5.96. His career BB/K ratio is 98/114. This game should never have gone into extra innings.

I agree, J, a disappointing series. The Phils were in position to win all four of those games. I forsee a tough time against Houston's pitching, as well. If they can win 2 of 3, it'd be an unqualified success.

According to the MLB site, the actual current Wild Card standings are:
San Diego 70 66 .515 -
Philadelphia 69 68 .504 1.5
Florida 68 68 .500 2.0
Cincinnati 68 69 .496 2.5
San Francisco 68 69 .496 2.5
Houston 67 70 .489 3.5

Wow, I go away for the weekend and miss a corker of an argument. My belated two cents: Both sides in the Rolins vs. Burrell debate are giving very short shrift to context. SS is the second-toughest defensive position, LF the easiest. That means it's easy to find a LF with good offensive credentials, much harder to find a SS with them. Stat-head sites that measure things like Value Over Replacement Player take such things into account. In short, there's a reason Rollins is a 3-time all-star and Burrell is still stuck on zero appearances. Is Burrell the better offensive player? Yes, but Rollins is the better player, because he would be harder to replace with an equivalent talent.

Alby,

Burrell is and has been close to where he should be in the lineup for years, but many feel Rollins is misplaced as leadoff. It would be interesting to see how a move to 5th-6th would pan out for Rollins.

This dillusion at the wildcard berth will most likely be up after this week. 3 games against Houson and 4 against Florida. We'll know whether they are contenders or Pretenders after this week. I sure as hell hope they go at least 5-2 but i'm thinking given how both those teams have killed us in the past that its more realistic to see a 2-5 week.

All the teams in the wildcard chase have flaws but if the Phillies HAD a closer over the past month I would be willing to bet they would have a substantial lead in this race. I really think Gordon's inability to pitch in August will utimately kill this team's ability to make any final run.

For all you guys out there that thought not giving Wagner the $ was a good idea...think twice as you're watching him close out the NLCS and getting the mets into the WS.

I really hope that Gillick will realize that a team needs a closer down the stretch and Gordon has way too much of a history of breaking down in August/September to be relied on going into a season as a closer. The Yankees had him in the perfect role as setup man not closer.

Well, can't say we weren't warned! I remember hearing all this stuff when we picked Gordon up.

Is anyone else pissed off with the constant late inning replacement moves by Charley. I know everyone rips Charley for all his moves but I'm typically the one who defends him and I can normally make a good argument for the moves he does make but his constant usage of Roberson as a late inning replacement is getting crazy.

I understand he's probably better than Burrell in the field but given the state of the bullpen no lead is ever safe and it has come back to kill this team a few times when Roberson has come up in late or extra innings and he honestly has no shot at getting hits against major league pitching.

Oh by the way the pen is going to get a lot BETTER with the additions of Condrey and Sanchez LOL!!!! These guys should never get into a game down the stretch and if they do the game will be over!

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