Thoughts on the first of seven games that will define the Phillies' season.
It’s naive to believe baseball’s all-time longest rain delay didn’t take a physical and mental toll on the Phillies last night in D.C. The lethargic play from both squads, and 3-1 final outcome, certainly reflect the 12 p.m. start time and 5 hour delay, on top of the drain of yesterday’s emotional, nail-biting marathon. What kind of rhythm were you in last night at midnight? Ready to get a jump on taxes, I'm sure.
But fatigue isn’t the only excuse why the Phils find themselves on the brink of playoff elimination. The Phillies must sweep the Marlins, and the Giants must take two of three from the Dodgers to force a playoff. Two sweeps, and the Phils are in.
For all intents and purposes, the season should be over following a three-game sweep at the hands of the worst team in the division. We could point the finger at screwed calls, the MLB front office, Mother Nature, lack of timely hitting, poor strategy, and as the players would honestly attest, over-anxiousness and nerves as reasons that contributed to the collapse in D.C.
A 162 game season is a large sample, but sometimes a sweeping generalization can reveal the whole story. The Phillies are 83-76, a little better than average. That will get you close, but not close enough. This means you will lose to teams like the Nationals. And as it turns out, they will finish the season under .500 against them.
The Phillies thought they were doing themselves a favor by taking sole possession of the Wild Card lead. Record-wise, they were. By controlling their own destiny, they basically narrowed the season to seven games with Houston, Washington and Florida – a perfect opportunity to prove they are more than just "a little better than average."
Instead, they have lost three of the four games, and have framed off a nice abridged version of the season for fans to put under manageable scrutiny. And so we shall.
Brian Schneider delivered yesterday's only timely hit with a three-run single in the sixth. This kind of hitting represents the single biggest glitch of Version 1.1. The four-five-six hitters have combined for only four RBIs in the three losses, all coming from Ryan Howard, and in the 8-7 win, they knocked in nary a run. They’re stranding too many damn base-runners. Simple as that.
This cycle will inevitably lead to deflated and demoralized play. Was Jeff Conine thinking about his 0-for-7 collar from Wednesday when he went hitless on Thursday? It’s likely. Whenever one doubts toughness or moxie, you’re treading on thin ice. But the fact is, when the pressure was off this season, the Phillies turned it on. When goals were set, and "magic numbers" levied, they have fallen short, including their goal to win big at home during April.
Pressure might explain some of the residual glitches. Though Lieber and crew didn't walk anyone last night, Phillies pitching has allowed 16 free passes including Monday’s game. At least 10 of them came close and late in ballgames.
Starting pitching isn’t setting the world on fire, either. When Jon Lieber was signed before the 2005 season, it wasn’t to spot a poor lineup three runs over 5 1-3 innings in a game with serious playoff implications. The one-two punch of Brett Myers and Cole Hamels couldn’t deliver memorable September memories, either. The Astros figured out curve-happy Randy Wolf his second turn through the order. At least one of these guys should have come up bigger.
We talked about the "not ready for prime time" managing Tuesday, and some of those points were supported on the playing field, in particular, the way Ryan Howard has had his legs knocked out from under him. Teams have adjusted to Howard, but the Phillies have not readjusted themselves. There has been no attempt to think outside the box by Charlie Manuel, which is what managers must do in playoff-type games.
Now, the Phillies are off to Florida on short rest to play in what could accurately be described a playground pickup game for the Marlins. After a season of overachievement, the young Fish are officially out of the playoff hunt, thanks in no small part to the Phils. They weren’t expected to get even this close. They've got nothing to lose and will be dangerous.
You could say the same about the Phils and their own unexpected post-season run. Therein lies the rub. The bonus of October baseball could set the groundwork for a pickup game of their own.
Phillies GM Pat Gillick answered questions from season ticket holders Tuesday, including questions about the future of third base and catcher, Randy Wolf and whether they will contend for a playoff spot next season.
As reported by Beerleaguer correspondent Billy Mac:Question -- Any plans to offer a long term contract to Ryan Howard?
Gillick -- Unlikely this year. No need to.
Question -- Third base and catcher situation in 2007?
Gillick -- Plan on giving Ruiz a chance to play. Need to go outside the organization for third base.
Question -- Does Citizens Bank Park effect the organization's ability to acquire free agent pitching?
Gillick -- Thinks park has played fair this year and is not a factor.
Question -- Are there plans to acquire free agent pitching and resign Randy Wolf after the season?
Gillick -- Pitching is critical, yada, yada (didn't answer either question). Happy with Moyer, Myers, Hamels, and Lieber.
Questions -- A couple of questions regarding Burrell and his status ...
Gillick -- Burrell is not performing. We are trying to figure out what's wrong. 24 home runs is still significant. Can't answer question if he will be back next year.
Question -- What is the status of Charlie Manuel?
Gillick -- He's under contract next season and likely will be coming back.
Question/comment -- Lineup strikes out too much. What's being done to address it?
Gillick -- Need more contact hitters and lineup is especially weak 6 through 8 now.
Question -- Minor league/farm?
Gillick -- Ranked 30th last year by Baseball America. Mentioned improvement based on records of minor league clubs in 2006 versus 2005. Does not hold scouts accountable since the organization had traded away draft choices.
Question -- I asked Bob D's question about which minor league pitchers we could expect to see in majors in 2007.
Gillick -- Matt Smith, Brian Sanches, Justin Germano, Brian Mazone (Gillick said he expected at least one of those four, maybe two) along with Brito.
Question -- How about Victorino in CF and Rowand in RF?
Gillick -- Not a bad idea since Rowand played corner outfield in college and was converted to CF by ChiSox.
Question -- Are you surprised by Abreu's success in NY?
Gillick -- Abreu good player with good supporting cast. Need to change mix in Philly.
Question -- Can Phils contend in 2007?
Gillick -- Phils should be able to take a step forward in 2007 and be in Wild Card race. Will not contend with Mets.
Question -- What are the plans to improve the bench?
Gillick -- Some of the recent acquisitions may play that role next year. Looking for players that play a few positions for versatility. Not interested in just "professional hitters." Questioner specifically asked about free agent Matt Stairs and Gillick said he was the type of player they would consider.
A few other nonsensical question regarding trades involving Ryan Zimmerman, Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera, and Mark Mulder (questioner didn't know he likely will miss most of next year with shoulder surgery)
(Editor's note: Excellent group of questions, and thanks to Billy Mac for the update!)