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Wednesday, July 05, 2006

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You have a link to the Bill James quote?

The comment was made on Swing and a Miss. The quote is from the book "The Mind of Bill James"

I was sitting out in left field yesterday and was impressed with the power in his HR. That ball was blasted out of there. It's funny, any time I see Ruiz do anything well I always think to myself that Weitzel must be pretty happy, like he's your little brother or something.

Bill James did think it was a good idea to trade Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo. So even the geniuses get it wrong.

I would agree that for Ruiz or Hamels that it makes sense to leave them up; however, you have to be careful with a guy like Mathieson. If Mathieson has another horrendous start or two, he would be better served by having more time to develop at T-AAA.

"Here’s the new rule for 2006: The kids stay!"

Jason, that sentence says it all. I heartily agree. Your future posts may be more eloquent and insightful, but never more pithy and dead on as this one. Good show.

Let's continue the spirit of independence celebrated yesterday but becoming independent of the Old Guard...the Bells, Liebers and Fasanos et al.

Lieber's here to stay until next year. His contract (7.5mill/year) is too big unload, and noone will want him the way he's been pitching. Yet another Wade holdover that will wreak for another year. The best to hope for is that he'll be a really expensive #4 starter next year. But who knows, maybe he'll retire. Brace yourself for his return to the mound too. He's gotten rocked in Clearwater.

Mathieson needs to develop another pitch to be a starter, and he won't do it while in the bigs. He needs to go back down or be relegated to the pen. Don't forget that this kid was brought up from AA-Reading.

Otherwise, I say leave them all up, if we're gonna get a pitcher for Abreu or Burrell we may need to package one of these guys with them to get out of paying part of their salary.

< Bill James did think it was a good idea to trade Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo. So even the geniuses get it wrong. >

It was Bill James who recommended picking up Bronson Arroyo off waivers in the first place. Wily Mo is long-range planning. James also recommended picking up Ortiz, Mueller, OCab and hasn't missed the playoffs yet. I won't even mention the extra draft picks they received in compensation for a lot of his pick-ups.

Uh-oh. There is a glimmer of hope in the Phillies' eyes again. In *my* eyes, that's not a good thing. On the surface, it's heartening to see them play with even a small semblance of intensity again and start winning a few games. It's heartening to see Jimmy Rollins call a meeting and take a stand. It's heartening to see Sal Fasano forced onto the DL. But Rich Hoffman's column today confirms my worst fears: that the Phils start deluding themselves into thinking they're contenders for the wild-card.

If the Phillies continue to hold on to the same players with the same feeble hopes of a cheap playoff berth year after year - the results are going to stay the same, year after year. Don't believe the hype, Gillick. The majority of fans want to see changes, not a spirited run to another inevitable second-place finish.

The Phillies have played very well against San Diego in recent years, and the Pirates are to follow. They'll probably be back to .500 before the end of the month. I know that they technically have a shot. I'm still saying, I don't care. It's not a *good* shot, and with the pitching the way it is, I don't think it's a realistic shot. I don't even think a 10-game win streak could convince me otherwise (this time).

When do playoff tickets go on sale?

I'm with RSB. I want to see strong individual performances from Burrell and Abreu to somewhat increase their value (Bell of course is untradeable). But I want them to keep losing until the trade deadline has passed, to force Gillick to trade for some starting pitching. Of course, any idiot can see that needs to happen yesterday, but who knows, maybe he needs just a little more pressure...

But anyway, after the TD, I hope they put together a streak or two, for the young guys' sake. Give them a taste for winning (like the second half of last season), drop some dead weight after the season and maybe they'll hit the ground running next year, when they have a bona fide big-league manager.

"Here’s the new rule for 2006: The kids stay!"

does that go for chris roberson too? i sure as hell hope not...

Ok, ok. There are exceptions, like Roberson. Hamels and Ruiz are definites. Fabio Castro should be a definite. I'd like to see more of the young relievers like Sanches up by the end of the season. I will understand if Mathieson is sent down for the reasons MG stated.

excuse my ignorance, but what's wrong with Roberson? I always saw him as a speedy contact hitter. What's the reality?

i hate to spoil the we need pitching calls (because they are certainly true) but i think our #1 trade priority, if we are focusing on 2007, is to get a Third Baseman that is above average. there are zero of them available as free agents in the offseason while there are plenty of pitchers on the fa market that can help us. bell/nunez CANNOT be our starting 3b next season, and we have no one in the minors ready to step up. (in the perfect world bobby would go to laa for chone figgins and some prospects. figgons could play 3b and lead off.)

Yes, why exactly is wrong with Roberson? He's only had a handful of ABs in the majors, and has never before been in a position where he's playing once or twice a week. If we haven't seen any results so far from him at the major league level, that to me does not indicate that he has no ability to help in some capacity once his feet are more firmly on the ground. He *is* a speedy contact hitter who could probably help the Phillies as a reserve outfielder. I see no reason why that wouldn't be a reality. Those who see him as a washout with no future on the basis of his initial trials in the majors are giving up on him without any real basis. I'm not going to get carried away defending him - I doubt he projects as an everyday player - but he does have some skills to offer and if the Phillies are inclined to go with younger, cheaper options next year, he ought to be considered for a roster spot.

Heaven forbid they have a guy who could come in for Burrell and steal second in a late inning.

Don't get me wrong, I'm fine having Roberson around for that reason, as long as the roster permits it like it does now. Dellucci is also day-to-day. But I'd rather see Roberson get regular work in the minors, then next season maybe he has the skills to do what Victorino is doing this season. Last season I know he was a pretty raw defender.

i hate to spoil the we need pitching calls (because they are certainly true) but i think our #1 trade priority, if we are focusing on 2007, is to get a Third Baseman that is above average.

This just doesn't make any sense to me. We started Aaron Fultz on Sunday. In other words, we don't have a rotation to speak of. How could starting pitching be anything less than our #1 priority?

Yes Bell is horrible, and I'll be mad as hell if he's in a Phillies uniform next year. But having a third baseman who's almost as good (ahem) as Bell and costs about a tenth as much is a good compromise in my book. We've got a good core of young players; add pitching and then let's worry about the 7 and 8 holes. No one said we were going to win the World Series next year.

I know you all know 'why' meant 'what', but I had to correct myself because that just looks retarded.

Starting pitching is their biggest problem. They need a veteran No. 1 in the worst way, but I guarantee none of the top veterans will sign in Philadelphia. Hopefully, the brass knows this and does the next best thing, clean house and deal for premium starting pitching prospects, and lots of them. I would be satisfied with a deal for an average young third baseman, perhaps someone blocked in another organization.

yeah, take burrell out in late innings during tie ballgames so a guy can steal second, then the order can come back around multiple times in extra innings so that speedy player can end up 0-2 as a pinch runner. that has worked so well this year...

and if no-hitting speedy outfielders are so popular, why isn't endy chavez still around?

there is no point in carrying six outfielders on this team. they are using relief pitchers to start games, but they would rather carry six OF than an extra arm? ridiculous.

What extra arm? And is seeing Burrell grimace at strikeouts better than seeing a speedy guy ground out? (Assuming there's no one on first of course.)

I don't know much about and am not endorsing Roberson... I'm just not very big on Burrell at the moment.

Gillick has some very tough calls to make about the pitching staff, now, at the upcoming deadline and in the offseason.

1) Assuming Brett Myers comes back from counselling with his temper under control, do the Phillies keep him? Or do they make a PR statement and get less than even value in a trade? Can Myers ever pitch for the Phillies again?
2) Cory Lidle might be one of the most attractive trade deadline commodities the Phillies have, along with Tom Gordon. Do you trade either or both of them at the deadline? That pretty much decimates what’s left of the 2006 season.
3) Do you re-sign Randy Wolf, or do you invest that money elsewhere? Is he worth the investment? What’s the max you should offer him?
4) Is Gavin Floyd finished in this organization?
5) Should Lieber automatically go back into the rotation when he has been completely ineffective in his minor league re-hab starts? Should he go to the bullpen?

Those will do for starters (no pun intended), and that’s just looking at starting pitching!

I'm not a MLB scout, but by watching Roberson in spring training and his brief stays in the Majors so far, he just won't be able to hit MLB pitching. He sucks! So stop ******* about a "speedy contact hitting outfielder". And as pointed out above, remember Endy Chavez my friends...Roberson isn't even as good as him!

zach - i'm not talking about needs this year - obviously we have no starting pitching. but this year is gone. next year we have all those young pitching prospect that everyone wants to trade for: hamel, mathieson, floyd, madson, gonzalez. how many more young guys do you want? lieber and myers are in the rotation next year and you have to think 2 to 3 of the above young guys will be. that means there may only be 1 spot to fill with a free agent pitcher. there are literally no starting third baseman free agents out there.

how many more young guys do you want?

As many as is feasible. Floyd is a certifiable dud. Lieber will be in the rotation next year, which is hardly good news, and who knows what'll happen with Myers.

Mathieson is still a question mark (great job last night though), and so for that matter is Myers. He's shown a lot of promise at times but has been anything but consistent. Hamels hasn't even been consistent, for that matter. That's the thing about prospects... you don't really know what you're getting. So, the more the merrier.

Also, if I'm not mistaken the free agent market for pitchers won't be fantastic next year either. Again, the fact that we have a bad third basement isn't what should be most frustrating; it's the fact that we have a bad third baseman with a multi-million-dollar contract. That contract is the reason he walks onto the field every day. I'd take a lottery of young, cheap guys at third over that in a second.

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