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Thursday, July 06, 2006

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I respect his opinion, and that stinks. :(

I'm reserving judgement until we see how he does at AAA.

This continues a recent trend for the Phillies to vault their few prospects through the system, rather than keep them at the customary snail's pace of one year, one level at a time - the kind of mentality that kept Ryan Howard under the radar for so long. Now we have Hamels and Mathieson already in the majors, and Bourn is suddenly in a fast track to be considered for next year's team.

Anyone with speed and defensive ability is an exciting player - and keep in mind that power is ofen developed after age 25. But all the same, it doesn't seem like there was much grounds for a promotion if he hasn't progressed the way they'd envisioned. So what can it mean? Either they plan for him to take over the CF position in a year or two regardless, or they're trying to artificially boost his organizational status so as to make him more attractive (i.e. closer to the major league level) for potential suitors outside the organization. Either way, it's an eyebrow-raiser.

Bourn's minor league numbers aren't great. While his power may develop, I doubt he has much more than 10-15 HRs a year. Additionally, his Achillies heal is that he just doesn't get on base enough. His OBP is rather weak and his BB/AB and BB/K ratios are not promising with somone with little pwer. Here is hoping that he develops into a better player than Marlon Byrd.

Bourn was put on the fast track by Wade after he double-jumped to AA. Gillick left him back at AA for a 2nd year.

Hamels was fasttracked by Wade as well, but had several setbacks.

Mathieson went about as fast as his production merited.

Howard went about as fast as his production merited.

In my lifetime, there has never been a better player to come through Reading than Marlon Byrd - better than Howard, better than Rolen. He appeared to have all the tools to become a star.

2001 in Reading: Baseball America First Team Minor League All-Star, OF; Philadelphia Phillies Minor League Player of the Year; Eastern League MVP; Eastern League All-Star, OF; Double-A All-Star OF; AA Player of the Year.

.316 BA /.383 OBP /.555 OPS, 28 HR, 161 H, 32 SB, superb defense

Great players dominate at every level. Good ones dominate at the minor league level. Mediocre ones plod along. Bourn is clearly a mediocrity.

i don't know if i'd say that bourn is a mediocrity, but i will say this, courtesy of the Holy Grail: WE ALREADY GOT ONE. i mean, what exactly is the diffrence between bourn and victorino? both are hackers at the plate (bad K/BB ratio), have slight power, speed in CF, and both are blocked by rowand. of the 3, none are really a leadoff hitter. don't get me wrong, i love when shane-o's in the game, he hustles everywhere, including off the field, but how many 7 hitters does one ballclub need?

pure offense was Randy Ruiz, but of course we know what happened to him.

I agree with you that Byrd was probably the most fun to watch. he was simply dominating. I worked for the RPhils during Howard's year and that was great too

oh, and Bourn is not a hacker. I'm not sure what gives you that impression.

"oh, and Bourn is not a hacker. I'm not sure what gives you that impression"

Well call me crazym but striking out 123 times in 135 games last year sure says hacker to me...or maybe overmatched.

Dude: Right on. There is no bigger red flag on what a prospect will do at higher levels than strikeouts. Bourne's nearly 1 per game is off the chart. Keep in mind folks, that the Phillies minor league system is one of baseball's worst. Saying Bourne is the Phillies top position player isn't saying much at all. He projects as a 4th outfielder at best.

10 minutes left to vote for Bobby... I'd personally rather them have an All-Star to trade...

And this year, 67 SOs in 318 ABs. Not really a leadoff type. His stats remind me a little of Doug Glanville. Not exactly a future star in the making, but there could be something there.

There were two movies in a series, the Bourne Identity and the Bourne Supremacy. Right now Michael Bourn is trying to establish his "identity", while fans hope he establishes his "supremacy". I don't know anything about him, so I'm not going to get too excited about him. I'm still working on trying to get excited about Fabio Castro...and for tonight's game.

They'll fastrack a Michael Bourn, but they'll "slowtrack" a Chase Utley or a Ryan Howard. The single biggest problem this organization has is its inability to evaluate its own talent.

You guys are looking after the fact at stuff and not realizing that Howard's production didn't merit him jumping levels. Utley was the only one 'slowtracked'.

Bourn had an amazing year at Lakewood(433 OBP 470 slugging) and they wanted to push him. He had a somewhat disappointing year last year, but showed discipline with an OBP about 80 points higher than his batting average(this year 76 points higher). He just couldn't hit well. He's not a hacker. Strikeouts don't make one a hacker, I'm not sure where that's ever been considered a baseball truth. If so, Bobby Abreu is a hacker.

Howard's production didn't merit jumping levels? Tell me of one season, where he didn't excel in the minors. He was blocked by Jim Thome, we know. But was he ready to play in the majors the year he hit 48 homers in 2004? Most likely. The Phillies cost him at least one year of his major-league career because they didn't know or want to know what they had in him. And if Thome hadn't gotten hurt, Howard would have his ROY and all-star berth for the Pirates or Cubs. That's a fact.

I've read multiple comments in baseballamerica.com that cite a second season at the same minor legue level usually does not foster much improvement in a prospect. That being the case, Bourn still was pretty great after his poor start to the year. He's looking solid in Scranton so far, hopefully that'll continue.

Doing well in the minors, as Howard did, and going up one level at a time is not always a bad thing. Howard did NOT have a great season until he hit AA in 2004. Period. Look up his stats for the previous seasons. They weren't bad, but didn't merit double-jumping anywhere.

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