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Thursday, July 27, 2006

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I'm sorry. I'm trying -- I really am. I want to be optimistic about the trade deadline and give Gillick the benefit of the doubt that, not having been a lifetime Phillies employee, he might be able to get something done. But, for God's sake, this is the Phillies we're talking about!! I just can't see anything positive happening. At all. I so very much want to be wrong, but . . . . . I don't know. As I said, this is the Phillies we're talking about.

If Lidle, Lieber, and/or Dellucci are the only ones dealt, don't expect the course of the 2007 season to be changed. Maybe 2009. I seriously doubt they'd get a single major league player for any of them, at least one who'd make any kind of impact. Which in the case of the first two, is fine, prospects are fine for that kind of middling talent. Giving up Dellucci is going to be harder to swallow. He's quality. Hearing his name linked to s many rumors, it's almost as the Phillies realize they don't deserve him.

I think that Gordon and Dellucci were picked up to "fill in the missing pieces" for the phils, and since its obvious that the Phils arent a couple of bench players from the post-season, that its time to let them go.

what the hell is cholly smoking making this lineup? Delucci leading off? Nunez getting a start? And effing Lieberthal catching Lidle?

This one has trouble written all over it.

Maybe Rollins did hurt himself a bit last night... I guess that he can get a night off... :-)

RSB, I see your point if PG doesn't do anything in the offseason. But this is a guy with a nickname of Stand Pat, and I'm sure he's trying to overcome that.

RSB: Lidle is solid and a mid-level prospect should at least be given for him. At the #5 in a rotation, consistency trumps spotty performance. For the Jays, they need to have a dependable starter all 5 days to catch the Yanks or Sox or wild card.

Lieber: Despite his piss poor performance this year, every one of those scouts know that he has always been a september pitcher. He showed that last year as well, and his improved pitching of late will help. I wish he'd had another start before the deadline, but maybe it's for the better. Oh, and 7.5mill isn't hard to swallow for pitching poor yanks.

On Delucci, I agree completely. I wish they could keep him. But pitching is the problem, both in the pen and in the rotation. So if the trade is ripe with young arms, you have to take it.

As for Abreu and Burrell, I don't think that just because they are still here makes 2007 automatically a wash. They were here last year and nearly missed the playoffs. It'll be harder, with the salaries twice that of 2005, to get players to put around them, but not impossible with savings from Wolf, Lieberthal, and Bell's contracts expiring.

Of course, this all hinges on them not reducing the total salary of ~$90mill

we won't be able to judge gillick until the trade deadline next year - no matter what happens at this deadline. this isn't his team, and won't be as long as 1/3 of the budget is in two players he has nothing to do with. it's conventional wisdom that pitchers are more valuable at the deadline and hitters are more valuable in the offseason, so we will see what happens. i personally expect lidle, lieber, cormier, rhodes and dellucci to be traded. i hope dellucci stays and both pat and bobby go, but i'm not counting on it.

Striking out with the bases loaded? In case you were wondering where he went the last few weeks, the real David Bell just wanted to let everyone know he's back.

Every time I read these posts about potential trades, I get a sick feeling in my stomach. I think it's residue from the Padilla for nothing trade still stuck in my craw. If they trade Burrell for nothing, it would not bother me, because if he goes, it frees up salary money. They can give Rhodes away for a pittance. I think Cormier has pitched well enough to get a prospect of value for him.

Despite how I feel about the doughnut eater, Lieber, we should still get something of value for him. Lidle is more valuable than Lieber, so we should get more for him. I don't think we should trade Abreu unless we get offered the moon. I think I want to keep Dellucci, too.

It would not bother me to trade Flash Gordon. He would have value to a team that has chances to win games. We could probably get someone good for Gordon.

Finally, Manuel put a speedy singles hitter with patience at the top of the line-up. Wait. What, now? Dellucci? Must be showcase day at the bank. Awesome.

hey, look at the blackhole from 7-9. Lieberthal, Nunez and Pitcher. Wheeee.

and guess what, they go down 123.

Hey Joe,

Don't forget about me! The blackhole starts in the 6 spot today!

Hey... does anyone else notice a bit of difference between Lidle this time, and the Lidle of last start...

Wait, didnt Coste catch him last game? Gosh, I wonder if it makes a difference.

Pat Gillick will trade if he gets something in return. If he gets nothing in return then dumping for nothing is madness.

Those who are just mad at Abreu and Burrel and want them gone for nothing in return are not thinking clearly. Direct your anger at ownership and vote with your lack of revenue sharing with them. DO NOT GO TO THE BALL PARK.

Sorry Sir Alden, doubleheader and dollar dog day on Sunday. I can't help myself.

i was just checking out gillicks 116 win seattle team. man what a collection of vets via trade and free agency. very few homegrown guys. i think i'm going to look at it every night before i go to bed. it will keep me safe at night. (raise your hand if you knew ryan franklin had the most bullpen innings pitched on that team)

yeah but that mariners team caught fire in a bottle because of ichiro. it's impossible for the phillies to get a player of that caliber almost out of thin air.

I didn't mean to imply that nothing Gillick does can affect the team until 2009 - just that whatever he's able to get for the more marginal talent he's dangling instead of Abreu is not going to impact the team. He'll have to hope he can put together a far more productive off-season than his first one with the Phillies if '07 is to be anything more than a wash.

I will again answer anyone who says we can't yet judge Gillick with the fact that this team has gotten measurably worse on his watch. What has happened this year is of course not all his fault, but some of it is, for damn sure.

And hey, why is it that when a guy who's bashed endlessly finally does something good, no one says anything? Nice going, Mike Lieberthal. It was nice to hear Harry call a homer of yours again.

i'm sure someone on here that knows about "winshares" or some other bill james stat would be able to tell us how many games - according to the computer - the mariners would have won if ichiru wasn't there and "joe leadoff hitter" was. that'd be pretty cool to figure out. corey lidle is definately getting us a prospect - maybe the reds will give us anderson machado back. wasn't he a can't miss prospect at one point who forgot how to hit.

judging gillick now is fine - you have every right. it's also pointless because this is not his team to judge. the statement: gillick, in his first year on the job, has done a poor job making ed wades team better" is true. it's also useless. he was honest when he told us this wasn't a playoff team.

re lieberthal's hr: sure, nice shot. a broken clock and all that.

I'd be more than comfortable in a pennant race having Cory Lidle as my No. 5.

Weitzel:

yeh, and its a shame that it wont be for the phils.

i guess that madson could always replace him in the lineup....

Tim, you want something better to look at? Look at the 1990 Blue Jays on retrosheet and go forward each year up to 1993. He added Jack Morris after his WS win and Dave Stewart in his last good year. As we all remember, of course....

thanks Mike H. - will do.

does anybody else think corey is excited to pitch in a pennant race? he sure looks motivated to me.

Enjoy the pennant run, Cory Lidle, and good luck.

... and sign back here in November.

We'll always have Doug Glanville killing your no-no two years ago. Wait. Was that Lidle or am I making sh*t up at this point because I'm sad he's leaving?

Lidle passed the audition. I sure hope the doughnut taster passed the day before. Is four runs in seven innings a passing grade? I'd rather see him gone than Lidle.

It's sad the Phillies have dogged this season so bad. A few weeks ago, I'd be excited about two wins in a row against a winning team. Now, I don't care. Win or lose, its pointless. The season is lost. My excitement is postponed to the future. I now want to see new faces in Phillies pinstripes.

From Jon Heyman's SI.com column today:

"Is there a market for Pat Burrell? Or, for that matter, even Bobby Abreu?

The Yankees' trade proposal for Abreu was a couple of Class A prospects. That, in effect, is scarcely more than an offer to take the $23 million remaining on Abreu's contract.

While Phillies GM Pat Gillick hasn't accepted yet, the Yankees aren't discounting the possibility they'll get Abreu by default at the deadline. The Tigers are supposedly in the market for a left-handed hitter yet have ignored Abreu and appear to be focusing instead on two right-handed hitters, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee, and it's difficult to identify teams interested in Abreu.

Phillies people are suggesting to folks that they may wind up keeping Abreu, another sure indicator that teams aren't exactly forming a conga line to take him.

Meanwhile, Burrell's decision to invoke his no-trade clause and turn down the Orioles after the Phillies were ready to deal him for Rodrigo Lopez, and Burrell's subsequent request to go to only one of two teams -- the Yankees or the Red Sox -- could keep him in Philly forever. Since the Yankees worry about Burrell's chronic foot problem, that leaves Philly only one option and cuts its negotiating power to nil.

Abreu, the sort of on-base machine that could interest the Red Sox more than Burrell, still may overcome his high price tag, a mixed rep and recent power outage (one home run since May 31) to be traded somewhere before the July 31 deadline. But Gillick may have no choice but to wait until the Soriano and Lee situations are resolved before acting in the hope that the losers in those respective derbies begin to show interest in Abreu."

i think si does the worst reporting in sports. that guy just took a bunch of public reports, acted like they are facts without citing sources and printed them.

Fear not, fellow national league fans and fellow rivals. I think Abreu will be moved. He's going to go to an AL team for good prospects. In the end, I think Gillick will make a cash dump if he can get some good minor league pitching prospects. I know it will be painful for you Philly fans, but Gillick has got to more or less blow this team up, take a beating for a season or two, and rebuild the team around Hamels, Utley and Franklin.

surely franklin was a mistype, right?

you *had* to mean howard.

i will enjoy watching the mets pitching collapse during the playoffs. too bad they traded scott kazmir - he would look horrible in a mets uniform right now.

He's a Mets fan, he probably wants us to rebuild around Franklin.
Either way, it made me laugh considerably. If only he wasn't the lone funny Mets fan.

Franklin is another guy they can trade like Padilla. Get rid of him for some stiff that we'll release within a year. Franklin has been a total disappointment.

I read something recently that all the homers he gives up are hit off his slider, yet when it was suggested that he stop pitching sliders, he says he wants to continue to throw sliders because he want to be a starter and he wants to show (other teams?) that he has a a variety of pitches that a starter needs to have. What a bunch of manure. If I was the pitching coach and this story was factual, I'd give Franklin specific orders to next use that pitch. It just shows selishness, not a team commitment. A case could be made that Franklin's homers have cost the Phils a winning record.

Typo. I meant "I'd give Franklin specific orders to NOT to use that pitch."

JZ, that was Eric Milton. I doubt is Lidle ever took a no-hitter into the second inning.

MLB must've gotten mad about that nickname J-Roll gave Joey D; he's not on their streak list :

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/history/rare_feats/index.jsp?feature=hitting_streaks

Ahhh. Thank you, Mr. RickSchuBlues. I could swear it was Lidle, though. I know he went deep a couple of times. Huh.

Making a prediction that on Aug. 1, Abreu and Burrell will still both be members of the Phils. Way too much money owed to either player plus no-trade clauses means that useless the Phils eat some serious money they are stuck with both guys.

Is Fabio Castro still alive? Of all the moves that Gillick has made, trading Haigwood for Castro was the most peculiar. Why trade for a young arm and then not use him?

I was reading today, somewhere, (sorry i can't remember where) that Castro has very little experiance above A or AA. So that while he's shown some good stuff when he's pitched, he apparently should be in the minors, but since he was a Rule V pick he has to stay on the big clubs roster all season. Something overly complicated like that.
It kind of makes him seem exciting though. If it weren't so irking that there is this potentially good young arm in the bullpen yet we're throwing old men who were never good in the first place out there.

The may only want to use him in blow-outs (whch is stupid). Since the phils haven't really been blown out or blown out anybody in quite some time they're just sitting on him.

From what I remember from his Texas stats, he didn't get a lot of appearances there, either.

I had an awake daydream (nightmare) while driving to work this morning. In the dream Gillick trades away both Lieber and Lidle and replaces one of the starter slots with Ryan Franklin! It was horrible. I wanted to wake up, but I was already awake!

Where's Joe? I need to make sure I have this straight. You said Lidle pitched great last time because of Coste. Since he pitched even better last night with Leiby behind the plate, I'm guessing you'll say the catcher had nothing to do with it. Am I right?

Lake Fred: I agree with your earlier post about potential trades giving you a sick feeling in your stomach. Too many posters here assume the Phillies will be so much better if only they trade Burrell, Abreu etc. etc. As if there is any reason to believe this GM or this team could get better players in return or make smarter decisions about which free agents to sign.

clout,

nice game by lieby and lidle.

:-)

clout: when the present team is failing, you do not maintain the status quo. Is there any guarantee that the team will be better by trading people? No. But when there is significant odds that the team will not succeed as constructed, you change it.

Even if the result, if you're reasonably certain that doing nothing would have produced the same result (no postseason), then at least you're trying.

The Brew Crew just traded Carlos Lee to the Rangers for Francisco Coredero, Laynce Nix and Kevin Mench. I would've taken that for Abreu.

what is carlos lee's contract like?

we're still under these brain dead wade contracts.

From SI.com at the link: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_heyman/07/27/scoop.thursday/index.html

[headline]
"COME AND GET 'EM - MARKET SLOW TO DEVELOP FOR PHILLIES BURRELL, ABREU'"

[story]
"Is there a market for Pat Burrell? Or, for that matter, even Bobby Abreu? The Yankees' trade proposal for Abreu was a couple of Class A prospects. That, in effect, is scarcely more than an offer to take the $23 million remaining on Abreu's contract. While Phillies GM Pat Gillick hasn't accepted yet, the Yankees aren't discounting the possibility they'll get Abreu by default at the deadline. The Tigers are supposedly in the market for a left-handed hitter yet have ignored Abreu and appear to be focusing instead on two right-handed hitters, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee, and it's difficult to identify teams interested in Abreu. Phillies people are suggesting to folks that they may wind up keeping Abreu, another sure indicator that teams aren't exactly forming a conga line to take him. Meanwhile, Burrell's decision to invoke his no-trade clause and turn down the Orioles after the Phillies were ready to deal him for Rodrigo Lopez, and Burrell's subsequent request to go to only one of two teams -- the Yankees or the Red Sox -- could keep him in Philly forever. Since the Yankees worry about Burrell's chronic foot problem, that leaves Philly only one option and cuts its negotiating power to nil. Abreu, the sort of on-base machine that could interest the Red Sox more than Burrell, still may overcome his high price tag, a mixed rep and recent power outage (one home run since May 31) to be traded somewhere before the July 31 deadline. But Gillick may have no choice but to wait until the Soriano and Lee situations are resolved before acting in the hope that the losers in those respective derbies begin to show interest in Abreu."

If the facts in this story are indeed accurate, the idea of *not* trading these guys clearly seems the better option, and if that really is the state of the transactional the market out there for Abreu and Burrell (the latter apparnelty because of his exercise of his "no trade rights"), then of what real value is *any* deal right now? [While there apparently is a lot of demand for Dellucci, I don't think the Phillies should unload him, at least unless the deal could fetch a front-line, proven, still young, starter, and that prospect is more than unlikely, it seems to me.]


Lee makes $8.5 M and is a free agent at the end of the season, so Rangers are only committed to roughly 1/3 of that or $2.8. Compare that to Abreu who 1. Would likely veto a trade to Texas 2. Wants his 2007 option picked up to agree to a trade, so that is a commitment of over $31M. There was a report earlier this week (Stark ?) in which he said the deadline for Abreu was essentially Friday (today @ 4pm), because it would take up to 72 hours to settle the contract issues.

Well, Texas got Lee, so that settles that.

Myers, Hamels, Lieber, Lidle, Wolf.

IF Lieber was the Lieber of 2 years ago...

IF Wolf came back and pitched like he used to...

IF the Phils weren't already out of it...

.....This wouldn't be a bad rotation really.

yeh, it wouldnt be a bad rotation, and this shouldnt be a bad team, not with Abreu, Utley, Howard, Rollins, Rowand and Burrell.

Add in Delluci and Victorino, and you have a great paper team. If you get a break at catcher (Coste, lets say), and Bell hits 290, you should be preparing for a run.

except that it isnt working out like that.

Will: I haven't seen anyone here say we should stand pat. I have seen many here say let's dump Burrell & Abreu. What I'm saying is you damn well better get some good young players if you go that route because you are looking at a long string of losing seasons otherwise. Conlin made an excellent case the other day that Abreu is one of the best outfielders ever to play for the Phillies. If you can replace his 100 walks, 100 runs, 100 RBI annually with someone younger in return, fine. Otherwise, it makes no sense.
P.S. The trade of Mench, Nix & Cordero for Lee shows exactly the value of those 3. The Rangers were willing to deal them for a guy who'll be a free agent at the end of this year. Offensively, Mench is a carbon copy of Rowand (bad OB, fair power), only his glove isn't nearly as good. Nix is awful. Cordero is a 31-year-old closer with a 4.81 ERA. No one in their right mind would deal Abreu for that package.

I have to agree with clout on the Lee trade. It's a win for Texas because in that division, all they really needed was that extra bat. Now they have it, and it only cost them some players around the edge.

I am someone who believes in the right situation Laynce Nix could be a good starting OF inthe ML. Now of course you want a SP for Abreu, but so does everybody so you probably cant get a ML SP of quality. If the best offer was Abreu for Mench, Nix and Cordero, you take it. Now you can still deal Cordero to someone else in a spinoff and if Rowand doesn't come abck you can legitamely platoon Bourn/Nix next yr.

Dude: Who replaces the 100 walks, 100 RBI and .300 BA. Bourn/Nix or Mench?

Well it is a good trade for the Brewers in that they had nochance of resigning Lee, but

Clout, I am a big Abreu fan, but with Utley getting on base in front of you and Howard hitting behind you, I think most MLB corner outfielders should drive in at least 90. Dude, Nix has made some nice plays in the outfield, but he has shown nothing so far as a major leaguer. He can't hit lefties at all. He is a real longshot now at 26.

Will . . . sadly I would actually add a few "Ifs" to your list about starting pitching but it would get a bit lengthy.

Billy Mac: I agree. That's why it would be tough to replace Abreu, who's averaged 100 RBI for the past 5 years.

ooops. Sorry, that last post was me.

I think we already have the 100 RBIs in Utley if he batted 3rd. But then you need to replace Utley. Getting a true #2 hitter is tough, but not impossible.

If we got decent pitching prospects in return for Abreu, we might be able to afford to lose some of those RBIs and walks. This is probably why Gillick is demanding Hughes from the Yanks in return for Abreu.

About the rotation, I was just saying that if you look at the names and what they've accomplished in the past (Wolf, Lieber) Present (Myers) and the potential for the future (Hamels) combined with consistency (Lidle), It doesn't look that bad. Lieber may be over the Hill, but Wolf could come back and then the rotation of Myers, Wolf, Hamels, Lieber, and Lidle would be significantly improved from the season's beinning rotation of Lieber, Myers, Lidle, Floyd, Madson.

Will: If each of those guys had their career year this year, the Phils could win the Wild Card.

It's not quite that bad clout

if you trade abreu for nothing and replace him and with buerhle, zito or hudson we are a better team. victorino is more than half the player bobby is and would replace him just fine. pitching wins, not 3 hole hitters that are less agressive than anyone else in your lineup. bobby is overpaid and we cannot win with him as our most expensive player. it's that simple. i'd love bobby to be here forever, unfortunately ed wade threw money at him and bobby did the right thing and signed the K. our salary structure with burrell and abreu is out of whack and we cannot win with them making the most money on the team. i would dump both of them for anything and take their 30+ million to improve the team in other places.

Tim: We all say stupid things when we're frustrated. Sometimes it makes us look very foolish. If you pause and examine reality you probably wouldn't want to repeat this statement: "victorino is more than half the player bobby is and would replace him just fine."

you're saying that bobby is double the player victorino is. that's fine. you could argue he's double the offensive player (but he's not) but victorino is double what bobby is in the field and paid .023% of what bobby does. he's also not a proven loser.

victorino + any of those three pitchers for 15m = a better team than bobby abreu for 15m.

Tim, you're forgetting 1) that there's no guarantee any of those 3 pitchers would come here and 2) being better than Abreu defensively is worth, at most, 1 game a year. Too many people on this site think Abreu is worthless. He's not. And if we're building for 2008 and beyond, remember than Abreu is worth a lot more at next year's trade deadline than he is now -- see the Carlos Lee trade for evidence.
By the way, I don't think you could defend the "twice as good defensively" position. Abreu's arm is more accurate than Victorino's; he's not quite as fast but covers more ground than your average RF. Yeah, he's collision-shy, but otherwise he's above-average -- no Gold Glover but not exactly a dog, either.

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