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Monday, July 31, 2006

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He's more than what we got for Bobby/Lidle, and I'm not stretching. I doubt that Henry will make the majors.

I agree with the trade, but can we take this as another acknowledgement that the Phils are out of the WC? Trading a quality reliever to the team in first is not a way to make a final run.

another great trade by gillick. he will be able to do whatever he wants this offseason with all this "flexibillity".

i'm more excited to go to my remaining games than i was before this weekend started. i want to see this kid - and all the others - pitch.

"ascent"

Thanks Jimbo.

Doesn't Germano have a pretty solid sinker? Those are the kinds of pitchers that mgmt. should be looking for...

This is not a bad trade.

two best things to like about germano: his stingy HR ratio and his K/BB ratio, as jw mentions. not to like: he appears to be a contact pitcher like lieber, habitually yielding more hits than IPs at just about every stop. less than 6 Ks per 9 in his career, as well. his peripherals appear to be eerily similar to gavin floyd. still, better than simply letting cormier go. trading him to the reds might actually help our chances -- he seems to wear down every year in late summer.

Of all the recent trades, I like this one the best. We gave up someone who was expendable and got a real starter prospect that is ready to start in the big leagues in the near future, not a single A maybe like we got for Abreu.

Great trade getting rid of Cormier. Even if Germano is a total dud, Cormier really sucked. I'm still scarred by those meatballs he served up in 2004, 2005.

Here's to hoping he gives up a couple more meatballs, and tanks the Reds wild card hopes in the process. 1 down...5 to go.

Gillick's prophecy about 2006 and 2007 virtually assures me that this team will make a solid run at the post season both years.

He's no dummy, and basically took all the pressure off this team (which is exactly what is needed now that we have a younger squad) and put the spotlight on himself.

The man's a genius.

Something for nothing. Keep it comin', Pat.

Rob - you too are a genius. I agree with you completely. We are watching GM 101.

Good stuff, Rob. Welcome to the mix.

I heard on the radio this morning that Gillick's proclamations that '06 and '07 were going to be duds was eerily similar to statements he made when the Mariners let Griffey, Johnson and Rodriquez go.

I am definitely willing to let Gillick do as he wishes at this point.

That is good stuff, Rob... and that's a quality email address you have.

So it looks like Gillick is getting younger and saving money. Doesn't this remind anyone of the Eagles?

"Gillick's prophecy about 2006 and 2007 virtually assures me that this team will make a solid run at the post season both years."

You mean the prophecy where Gillick himself said the team wouldn't compete this year and won't compete next year? Christ, do you guys actually pay attention?

Genius? You are aware of what Gillick did this past off-season, right? I won't even bother with the names, we all know them by heart by now.

And, Jason, I seem to remember a column a month or so back that GIllick was just an empty suit, a place holder for Amaro. Hard to believe a salary dump and a three game winning streak over a AAA team can turn someone into a genius.

However, frickin' sweet Cormier deal. I agree with the earlier poster that this is in fact more than we got for Abreu/Lidle. Seiously.

Rob made a nice point and I gave him props, kdon. I wouldn't call Gillick a genius considering some of his other moves, and like I wrote earlier, I still have doubts he'll be around next season.

This is actually a facinating example of human phychology and people's ability to be manipulated by news they want to hear.

Let's backtrack a bit on the old Gillick era so far, shall we.

Thome trade: Seemed very good at first, I certainly liked it, and could still turn out to be very good, although Rowand is blocking two of our best position prospects.

FA signings: Obviously terrible, no one would debate that.

Trades: J-Mike for Rhodes: eh, nothing special, pretty bad actually. Tejeda for Delluci, pretty damn good.

So, what we have seen from Gillick until two days ago had been a bit of mixed bag, I wasn't too impressed. What has changed? He trades Abreu for FAR less than anyone had thought (remember Milledge, Hughes, etc.) and...he suddenly becomes a genius, a prophet, and a man who can do no wrong. Facinating. A lot of the problems in the world make a lot more sense now.

...(which is exactly what is needed now that we have a younger squad)

Ahh, I am getting used to hearing that. It's nice.

Gotcha Jason, I thought you were actually endorsing the "genius" line.

I've slept on the Abreu deal and looked at the four "prospects" we got. They don't look as bad at a second look.

The LHP-reliever, Matt Smith, doesn't look bad. He can easily replace Cormier in the bullpen.

Carlos Monasterios, the RHP-starter, has good numbers at his level.

Jesus Sanchez, catcher, is valuable just for his position. My wife says, "How can you go wrong getting Jesus in a trade!" and she doesn't follow baseball at all.

The worst stats of the Yankees "prospects" belong to C.J.Henry. Supposedly he has all the tools and he was a recent first round pick so he must still have "potential."

Even so, this deal was a money deal, so if any of these guys make it, that'll be a bonus.

I read more on the prospects as well, including BP's take on the deal. Of course, they believe the Yankees made out big, but I don't think the big picture was entirely represented.

That said, I still thought it was a strong article. What BP said was true about Gillick players. He loves raw athletes like C.J. Henry. That flies in the face of everything Moneyball stands for.

This is a good trade. Cormier wasn't going to be re-signed and Germano has a chance to be an innings-eating .500, #5 starter. His chances of contributing in the big leagues are far higher than any of the prospects acquired for Abreu.

Glad to be part of the blog here. I've been a Sunday game plan holder since the mid-90's ,and am willing to give Gillick a couple of years here to see if he can work some magic.

My prediction is that Lieber will be going to the Rangers by 4PM, since they couldn't pull the trigger on the Oswalt deal with Baltimore.

Matt Smith could be a value in relief. Good numbers, and a Phils have a glaring need for a young left-hander for the bullpen. It was a good pickup. We'll see him this season.

Jason: What scouting report tells you that Smith will be a "good pickup" who will do well in the bullpen?

I am more excited to watch the Phillies now than I was a few days ago. Obviously the current mix isn't good enough to make the playoffs so finally there are changes. I would rather watch mathieson or hamels develop than lidle give up 3 runs in 6 innings. I would like to see delluci play a lot and bourn to get some starts. I want to see sanches work out of the bullpen. Finally there are new players to cheer on instead of the sam old players. This is not to say I didn't like Bobby because he is one of my favorite players but sometimes you have to move on and that time is now.

The Abreu trade is a disaster, just a dump in salary.

Word is Matheison is warming up in the CBP pen right now.

Could Lieber be traded for Hank Blalock?

I think Germano can be better than a 5th starter. The guy had a 1.12 WHIP last year in AAA at the age of 22! Also, he was in the PCL, which I think is a hitter's league. He has a great K/BB ratio, gives up less than a hit per inning, and keeps the ball in the ballpark. I think he slots in right behind Gio and ahead of Mathieson as the second best pitching prospect in the organization.

The irony is that Germano seems like the PERFECT moneyball guy, great peripheral stats, even though he doesn't blow the scouts away.

Clout- you are so fricken negative. Once again Smith hasn't even pitched for the Phillies and you're already ticked off about him. Glad your a poster on this site though because you seem to always post something that I disagree with and therefore feel the overwhelming urge to argue.

I also think the Phillies will continue to play decent ball the rest of the season because as previously stated...the pressure is off. I'm very skeptical of wild card, but to finish .500 or above at this stage of the season with all that's transpired would be a success!

Check that, Lieber traded to St. Louis. Don't know who for.

holy crap an optimistic post from kdon.

Sorry, had to.

I'm trying to look up trade stuff on ESPN.com. I love how it's basically a pay site now. It's almost worthless stuff anyways, why make me pay?

Sorry again, I needed to vent.

Clout: Smith isn't a sexy addition, but has the potential to be a useful one. In addition to solid numbers in the minors, Smith got an earlier call-up this season with the Bombers and pitched 12 innings, giving up a total of 4 hits, no runs, 8 walks, 9 strikeouts. He's young, and he's a left-hander. The report I read on BP had positive things to say about him.

kdon - what should gillick have done differently from day one?

you're killing the guy 1/2 a year into a project. i'm sure if he had a magic wand he would have waved it.

lieber to st louis!!!!!!! it's a beatiful time to be a phillies fan!!!!! (i'm doing nothing at work today. did you guys see all the tejeda/oswalt drama?)

Lovin' it! Blow the whole thing up, baby!!

Bell...Franklin...Abreu...Lidle....Cormier...Lieber.

Do you think he's done yet?

I think there's one more left before 4PM. Would love to see Pat the Bat "outta here...."

Queen: For the Phillies to finish .500 as you predict, they will have to play .525 ball the rest of the way. Let's see who turns out to be right.

Where is the Lieber announcement? hillies page still says Lieber pitching today...

HALPMEH!

Tim: I can think of a bunch of things Gillick should've done differently. Or did you love his Padilla trade and the signings of Gonzalez, Fasano, Franklin & Nunez?

who cares if they are .500 this year? seriously? if the young pitchers develop it doesn't matter.

What did the Cards have to give up to land Lieber the whale?

what are they clout? so you wouldn't have traded padilla. i get it, keep repeating it.

i love all those other moves (including the padilla one). they cost us nothing and allow him to put a competetive team on the field while preparing for a real run, with his players in 07, 08 and beyond.

The Fox site has Lieber pitching in the first. What gives?

Tim, #1, the Phillies are a worse team since Gillick took over. Just look at the records.

#2 - I would not have traded Thome for a CF with a poor OBP because I thought Vic was ready to step in and was youger and cheaper.

#3 - With the exception of Gordon, I wouldn't have signed any of the other free agents.

#4 - I would have kept Coste on the roster from day 1.

#5 - If I couldn't get anything more than C-level prospects, I would have kept Abreu.

The ironic thing is I don't think Gillick is terrible, just that it is moronic to praise him for moves that were clearly dicated by an ownership group looking to cut salary.

Let's do a thought experiment. Let's suppose their is a team - we will call them the Phillies - who were in fact just looking to cut salary, with little to no interest in improving the team. THe owners, like any businessmen, own this team because they wan't to make money, and were looking to save around $20 million next year, not so they could spend it on areas of need, but only so they could put it in there pocket.

How would such an ownership group go about explaining this to the fans? Surely they would just admit that they want an extra $20 million dolars in their bank accounts. They would, I think, make reference to an "old system" that didn't work, payroll "flexibility" and a "youth movement." Basically, they would say the EXACT same spin that we are currently hearing.

Now I am not saying I know for a fact that this hypothetical team is the same as our actual Phils, but that the SPIN is certainly the same. As I said before, Gillick is just a hatchet man here...in a way, I feel bad because he has a long and distinguished career that will most likely end with his trip to Philadelphia.

um, isn't lieber pitching? can we confirm this trade?

gillick isn't spinning anything. he said from day one what he was doing. he said there wasn't enough pitching but he was going to try anyway. he said he needed flexibility in payroll and went out and got it. i really don't know what you guys enjoyed so much about the last 4 + years that has made you resent these moves so much. it's time to move on.

Well, having the first pennant races (outside of 93) since I was 6 years old was pretty nice, if ultimately dissapointing.

Also, I'm currently wathching Mr. Doughnut himslef on the mound (pitching poorly of course), so I don't know what the Cards rumor is about.

Tim:
Really, there's little point in debating someone who says the moves I mentioned "cost us nothing." Did you pay their salaries? Were Nunez, Gonzalez, Franklin & Fasano the only7 free agents out there? How's Padilla doing? Where's the guy we got for him? Someone who doesn't recognize reality isn't worth my time.

I wish Lieber was on a plane to St. Louis right now

yeah that cards rumor is bogus i guess.

kdon - i'm the same way, but you can't kill gillick for trying to remake that team that didn't win. he hasn't not won since 80 or 93. he's been here 1/2 a season.

Clout- I didn't say the Phillies would finish at .500 or better, I was just saying that would be a success with all that has happened this season, especially here at the trade deadline. You're fun to argue with, keep supplying me with fuel for my fire.

It looks like Lieber is pitching himself out of the trade market. There must be a doughnut shop near his house that he can't bear to leave.

i'm shocked he got the start today. i would have pushed him back to tomorrow just in case someone came biting.

Tim,
It's pretty amusing how arguments get twisted. I have in no way been "killing" Gillick, I have mostly been "killing" the Phillies ownership and claiming that Gillick's hand was forced. My comments on GIllick were a response to a claim that he was a "genius."

Queen: I guess your definition of "decent ball" must be different than mine. You supply your own fuel. LOL!
"I also think the Phillies will continue to play decent ball the rest of the season."

ok clout - don't address me again. that solves all your problems.

oh one thing - did you like the padilla move? i'm not sure of your position on that.

kdon - that's cool. so much reading and writting while i'm at work. i respect and agree with your distain for ownership. let's all just hope pat is free to do as he pleases.

I was very hopeful some foolish organization was going to take Lieber off of our hands. doesn't look likely now. trading may be over for the phils. maybe rhodes or fultz if a club is desperate, but they're most likely august subtractions through the waiver/trade wire.

"let's all just hope pat is free to do as he pleases."

Yeah, no problem, but this comment makes me think the "Kool-Aid" remarks aren't far off. I will of course "hope" Gillick is free to do as he pleases, but I sure as hell wouldn't count on it.

oh Clout, there's another one of those Crash Davis minor league lifers sucking in the majors...oh wait, Coste hit a homerun!!

Clout I'm glad you get your jollies off of me and other posters on this site, but here's the thing...the Phils have been playing decently of late, you can't deny that. I like to be right just as much as anybody else, but I really hope you're wrong so you shut the hell up!

This site should be called "As The Beerleaguer Turns".

It could have little banners across the top stating "See who clout can piss off in this thread"; "See if kdon can rile up the readers"; "Read RSB's latest and see sparks fly"; "See Drama Queen fight back"; and "Watch Jason tiptoe through the minefield and make an occasional comment."

If anything, a deal of this magnitude (I'm talking Abreu) has helped me put Gillick's other moves in perspective. Moves like Fasano and Franklin were quite minor, and they both served a purpose. Something like Gonzalez is totally worth forgetting. I'm bitter about Padilla, and Nunez was a mistake. There have been others. But next to the everything that has occurred this past week - which is like an organization-wide seismic event (7 new prospects, about $40 million free to play with after the season) - a lot of the stuff I've been writing on this site seems a little trivial. Nobody has seen anything quite like this, and nobody knows quite how it will turn out. For me, that makes it exciting.

i haven't been this excited about our team since the thome signing/ cbp announcement.

I'd like to have your optimism Jason, but are you at all worried that this extra money will not be put back onto the field? I would be excited if we had a different ownership group (or if the cost cutting was a prelude to selling the team!!!)

I will do my best to try and forget their actions in the past and be excited, but it's going to take some massive amnesia.

And the prospects, eh. I like the Cinci dude deal A LOT but that's about it.

Thrown out stealing and a HR for Coste! Nice work.

I would really like to see Coste given a shot at 3b, and more time behind the plate.

At the point, he deseves a shot at securing a starting position for himself. We aint signing Lieby next year, and it would be prudent to answer the question: Is Coste a major-league starting catcher?

Phils look brutal today, Abreu must have stopped in to pick up his gear.

Are people delusional on this post about the Phils contending for a WC? This team has one reliable starter right now in Myers. Besides him, you have absolutely no idea what you are going to get and for most of the year it has been horrible. Just can't contend with starting pitching this bad and a bunch of mediocre bullpen arms.

The most compelling reason to watch the rest of this season is to see how Mathieson and Hamels develop. They are absolutely critical to the Phils' season next year. As for Madson, he stinks as a starter. He has been one of the most awful starters in the majors this season. Gives up HRs by the truckload and his control just vanishes at times. Ideally Madson would be sent to the pen next season. He doesn't have the stuff (only 2 decent pitches) or the demeanor (he constantly tries to overpower people with his 90 MPH straight fastball) to be a starter.

I know people are going to moan about this post but I want Floyd brought up once the roster expands in Sept. and see what he gives you in 4 or 5 starts. If Floyd can't give you a quality month with no pressure on him, then the Phils should finally cut bait with him and move on.

liking the cormier move. Whilst I'm still fuming about yesterday, Weitzel's point about smith is a good one. Gillick is at least sticking to his philosophy of acquiring a lot of younger pitchers, developing them from within, and seeing who sticks.

I'm prepared to put down yesterday to a bad mistake because he was in a rush to dump salary come what may, but even still, with four suitors, he should have been in a position to bid up the price, and certainly didn't have to throw in lidle.

jason, are since you've got the most information about the minors, have you seen major shifts in scouting/personnel moves this year? It would make me a lot happier knowing that for the younger talent coming through (of which I can only assume he'll continue to acquire however he can), that they're being brought up and taught different?

Overall, the last four days have shown two thing to like about gillick - he's ruthless in cutting mistakes and always try anything to get something back for a marginal player. I can applaud the move to youth.

He's already on record as not approving of free agent pitchers, which I think is wise, and he also approves of shorter contracts and flexibility, which is sensible. I'm happy to admit that I was so incensed at how much we got had yesterday that I forgot these other sensible attitudes of his.

But I have doubts about the consistency of his talent evaluation, and so I would worry what direction this team will take in terms of hitting and also gillicks ability to get great value for a big player.


Holy carp, peoples... I'm trying to get a job here, playing one potential employer off of another, Lieber gets traded, and the drama hits an all time high here on Beerleaguer. What the hell?!? Laughing up a storm...

I do fight back because I can't stand when people come off as all-knowing and unable receptive to other's ideas...not to mention any names, but CLOUT!

anyway, having a personal war is not what i'm here for so i need to ease up. i want to discuss phils.

and man, does anyone have to wonder why Lieber wasnt picked up? Guh!

Brother needs to hit Jenny Craigs. Shit, get wolf to start running with him.

1. i wonder if anything is going to happen with those pirates catching prospects the phil's were reportedly high on. i agree, lieberthal shouldn't get much pt at this point.

2. i would have no problem bringing floyd back up on september.

3. lieber is fat.

And Will, sorry not to post in reply to your query regarding the salary dump and 60 year old men, but I've been up to my eyes in work. Its a mark of how down and mad I was that I managed to spew this much about it.

In answer to your question - a gillick could be presiding over this if that's what he's been asked to do - slim down the organisation and prep it for amaro. Jason speculated on this a bit back.

Queen: This war of yours is one sided. LOL.

Donut taster is the absolute worst. I prayed for the Phillies to get rid of him.

Uggggleeee! The doughnut taster gives up an RBI double to the opposing pitcher! Arrggghh!

I like the idea of bringing up Floyd in September. Ed Wade's big signing of Lieber gave us one good year and two years of visiting dunk'n donuts for three meals a day

why does the catcher always bat 8th in this lineup? what is that? it makes no sense. the pitcher could but nunez over much easier than any catcher on the roster.

*bunt

We need to keep quiet while Lieber tries to get past the fifth inning so he can qualify for a victory against a pitcher that has a three run edge in ERA against him, hoping the Phils can erupt for 10 runs against the Fish in the 5th.

If you believe that, you may also believe that the Padilla trade was a good deal.

The way Coste is hitting the ball, it may be time to move him into ... say... the #2 hole.

MG: From what I've read on the scouting sites, I think Floyd is a better long term bet to make the rotation than Mathieson, who only has 2 reliable pitches.

I've seen some contradictory reports on Germano, with one site saying he has a plus curveball and below-average fastabll and another saying he's average across the board. He's a command-type pitcher who lives and dies on location, not stuff. I haven't seen anyone project him as more than a 5th starter, but that's still a great return for Cormier.

Henry is a Drew Henson-type who will either translate his raw talent into baseball skills and be a solid regular or, like Henson, he won't. A crapshoot.

I agree with Jason that the Abreu move is the one that will define the Gillick Era, just as the trades for Schilling and Rolen defined the Ed Wade Era.

Tim brings up a very interesting point with not playing Lieby much the rest of the season. I know he is Philly's longest tenured sport figure, and is a good guy, but he's washed up and and isn't doing anything for the Phillies (aside from grand slam yesterday). What I'm getting at is, bring up Ruiz and let him and Coste play out the final to months to evaulate the position for next season. With Ruiz's Triple AAA #'s, I have to think he can do a decent job in the Majors.

Seriously, can you DFA someone in the middle of their start!!! What a joke!

While Lieber is chunky, the reason he didn't get picked up is that he is due $8 million next year. No team wants that kind of money on a marginal 4th or 5th starter.

Lieber needs to leave. Eight fish runs. I hate the Marlins!

wow, Lieber is bad! I really wish Gillick would have spun some spell on a fellow GM to take him off our books.

Tim - if Manuel let Coste bat higher than 8th, it would make Lieberthal feel bad. And we can't have him feeling like he's underperforming.

Nothing like a 13 hit 8 run outing on trade deadline day. So much for moving Phatty...

Oh no, another RBI hit for the opposing pitcher to make it nine-zip. This is so bad!

Foghorn has thrown in the towel. He's letting Castro pitch.

fabio castro! sweet.

With Ruiz's Triple AAA #'s, I have to think he can do a decent job in the Majors.

Is that the Pennsyltucky Coastal Cactus League? I wonder what kind of promotions they would have in Sextuple A ball?

Manuel still cannot manage a pitching staff. Castro doesn't pitch in 3 weeks and then he pitches 3 days in a row. Unbelievable...

Is Manuel the man you really want to manage our new younger team? I don't. Ugh...

If my math is correct, it is actually nontuple A ball.

24 hits given up by Lieber in his last two starts (11.2 IP). Nine runs in this one. He is literally the dead weight of this organization. Maybe the team will allow him to follow the path of the other great donut taster, Russ Ortiz.

Here's an interesting idea:

Mazone, Brian (AAA): 9-1, 2.35 ERA, 14 GS, 88 IP, 72 H, 30 BB, 62 SO, 4 HR

Another hit for Coste, to go along with his home run this afternoon, and Coste's great throw to get Uggla at second base. Coste is now hitting .353. Certainly this guy should now get the bulk of the catching time, at least until he cools off at the plate, *if" he cools off, which I actually think may not happen. I think Coste is the kind of hitter who can hit anywhere with analogous numbers -- and there *are* such hitters -- and right now, "sample size", "scouting reports", "career minor leaguer" typecasting, "there's a reason why he was in the minors so long without a MLB look", and all that other conventional "thinking-in-the-box" wisdom, all looks increasingly pale at the moment. Right, Alby and Clout? I can't wait for your comebacks.

I absolutely don't want Manuel back. I think he's proven to be less than adequate.

Enrico, by bad with the Triple AAA, but I think you know I meant Scranton.

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