Can the Phils sell and win at the same time?

As the fire sale unfolds, the Phillies has slowly stirred themselves back into the Wild Card mix. With two months to go, do the Phillies still have a realistic chance at reaching the playoffs?

The odds are certainly against it, but at the moment they’re playing as well, or better, than all the teams standing between them and the Wild Card-leading Reds. As of this morning, the standings look like this:

	W	L	GB	Left
Cincinnati	55	50	--	57
Arizona	53	51	1.5	58
San Francisco	51	54	4.0	57
Colorado	50	54	4.5	58
Milwaukee	50	55	5.0	57
Philadelphia	49	54	5.0	59
LA Dodgers	50	55	5.0	57
Houston	49	56	6.0	57
Atlanta	48	56	6.5	58
Florida	48	56	6.5	58
Washington	46	59	9.0	57
Chi Cubs	43	61	11.5	58
Pittsburgh	40	66	15.5	56

As always, it all hinges on pitching, which has about to get 12-years younger/more inexperienced in the starting rotation with the addition of 22-year-old Scott Mathieson and departure of 34-year-old Cory Lidle. Mathieson, along with top oufield prospect Michael Bourn, were recalled from Scranton Wilkes-Barre in a flurry of in-house moves. As a reminder, Ryan Franklin was designated for assignment.

The state of the Phillies pitching staff can be summed up like this: Brett Myers is a No. 1 pitcher who matches up with the best in the league. They have a solid opportunity to win whenever he steps on the mound.

They will lean on at least three inexperienced starters the rest of the way – Mathieson, Cole Hamels and Ryan Madson. You don’t know what to expect from any of them, which is a net negative. Hamels looked dominant his last start against the free-swinging Fish, and in general has shown signs of improvement with every start. He will also get rocked a few more times before the season ends. Madson’s season is one of the most extreme thrill rides I’ve seen from a starting pitcher. Mathieson, who pitches tomorrow, has two pitches, but throws them hard. The Phillies can only hope to get lucky with their newest addition. As for Jon Lieber, we know what to expect. If he survives the trade deadline (suspicious amount of Jon Lieber highlights and clips playing at last night’s game FYI) the Phillies will hope he cobbles together the same second-half performance as last season.

The bullpen may represent their biggest hurdle. I challenge any of you to name this team’s current setup man. Tom Gordon has been mortal since the all-star break. Their best pitcher back there is Geoff Geary. And according to the Daily News, Rheal Cormier could be gone today.

In terms of team offense (not individual offense), I like what I’ve seen. Chase Utley has wasted no time in becoming the undisputed best player on this team in every regard. Some of you think the team is five years away, but Utley isn’t the type of player reserved for losing teams. A player of his quality has to be infectious. Along with Howard, Rollins, Burrell, Rowand and Dellucci if they attempt to resign him, I’m not real worried about the offense for the next couple years. In addition, I’m fairly certain that a top catcher will become a free agent priority.

Right now, the offense is hot, and both Utley and Howard are sizzling.

Here are some other observations from last night’s game, and some new points I’ve added this morning:

-- The "Dellucci lineup" has a good look to it. I liked it back when it was first tried when Burrell started going in the tank.

-- I don’t know how I missed this quote from Gillick’s press conference. It might be the most revealing in terms of his future plan. When asked how he will assemble the team, he said "Free agency, amateur draft, international signings. Whatever we think is right."

International signings. That’s new. And it appears the Inquirer’s Jim Salisbury thought about the same player this morning, Cuban third baseman Yulieski Gourriel, who has reportedly defected. Gourriel was the WBC’s standout player, IMO.

-- We can all agree that Abreu will be missed for his on-base percentage, doubles and knack for creating runs, but there’s something to be said about a good, old-fashioned hard-hit ball. It gets the juices flowing. That’s what I saw tonight. Granted, the Marlins weren’t too slick with the gloves, but I like what I’ve seen from this group over the last couple games. Triples, doubles, slams ... good stuff.

-- Rick White should retire. He looks totally cooked. Bring up some of this Triple-A talent, perhaps Matt Smith, the left-hander they picked up in the Abreu deal.

-- The addition of Michael Bourn to the 25-man roster is very interesting. I’m not totally sold that another outfield deal is coming, but it’s interesting nevertheless. Over the next year or so, they need to figure out the leadoff position, and Bourn is a possibility if he continues to develop. I thought for sure they’d bring up "old trusty" Chris Roberson. I’m glad they didn’t. I’ve seen enough to know he’s where he belongs, and that’s in Triple-A for the rest of his life. Bourn is the better fielder of the two, and his speed is second to none in baseball. I've seen enough to know Victorino isn't a leadoff hitter. I think he's a dynamite fielder, but not the answer at No. 1. And I know I've seen enough to know that Jimmy Rollins is a six-hitter with the potential to knock in some RBIs. Next season, they need to do what they can to turn this guy loose with some base runners ahead of him. Another solid rip tonight for J-Roll last night, his 12th of the season.

-- Gillick held a very honest, encouraging press conference after yesterday’s trade. I for one had no desire to see the Phillies carry on business as usual with this club. They're getting more expensive, older and winning less. Overall, I’m disappointed they didn’t receive a top-drawer prospect, but it seems now that Abreu was much harder to move than expected. The Yankees were the only team who could afford him, and one of three teams on Abreu’s list. Like I said earlier, the whole situation is a shame, but that’s Phillies baseball, isn’t it?

-- There’s no quit in Beerleaguer. I’m interested in this. I could give a hang whether or not Ryan Moats, Reggie Brown and Todd Pinkston are able to practice tomorrow. Who cares? No reason to turn our backs on this team now. Mathieson Tuesday. Hamels good to go. New opportunities for players to shine. And still in the hunt. It's okay.

Comments

[Tim]

i agree 100% about the delluci lineup. utley in the three hole is where he should be. same with howard hitting cleanup.

i'm excited to see these young pitchers. mathieson can throw hard and if he doesn't develop a third pitch, he can be our closer.

gourriel would be perfect at third for us. i immediately pencilled him in when i saw he defected.

i'm looking for both rhodes and cormier to go before 4 pm today.

[Paul]

There are three types of trades a MLB team can make:

1) Acquire talent -- and likely payroll
2) Dump payroll -- and likely talent
3) Acquire talent without significant payroll -- if you're really smart.

Obviously, Gillick chose option #2 and I can't say I blame him. It's ridiculous to pay a team $95M to finish under .500. If the Yankees want to pay Abreu $28M over the next 1.5 years to hit 7th and not take his bat off his shoulder, fine.

But it's time for the Phillies to move on and Gillick realized this.

[joe]

THIS JUST IN!

Cormier Traded: (prbly last trade b4 deadline)

Monday, July 31, 2006

PHILLIES TRADE CORMIER

TO REDS FOR RHP GERMANO;

RHP BRIAN SANCHES RECALLED

Veteran left-handed reliever Rheal Cormier, 39, was traded to the Cincinnati Reds this morning for 23-year-old right-handed pitcher Justin Germano (jur-MAH-no), Vice President & General Manager Pat Gillick announced.

[Drama Queen]

Cormier is already gone to Cincy for a Triple AAA starter, which is an ok move.

Weitzel, I have to say this was an excellent post where you showed remorse for losing Abreu but also look at how hard it was to deal him with his salary restraints and that this team obviously needs to head in a new direction.

I'm usually not optimistic, but I tend to think Gillick has a clue and will do everything in his power to make this team contend next season and they're doing the smart thing by testing some young players now to see if they'll be ready for '07.

[Drama Queen]

I'm glad to see people thinking more cleary this morning. As someone said above, paying a team $95 mil to finish under .500 is just not smart! Besides Abreu's on base %, I think the organization can respectively replace him. Heck, Dellucci will put up better power #'s, just not the stolen bases or all the walks. I know the game isn't all about hitting hr's, but it is about hiting, and Abreu was on the decline.

[Jon]

C-ya Frenchy!! Whose next??

[Jon]

Speaking of Yulieski Gourriel, when is he able to tender offers? It would be HUGE to add him!

[Drama Queen]

hard to believe I'm saying this, but the signing of Gourriel would make sense. usually i'm not for over bidding on foreign players, but in this case it would be right for the phils. i'm excited for the rest of the season and offseason. things are starting anew and time will tell if it's good or bad. but it's been mediocre here lately at a high price, so it makes sense to try something new.

[Paul]

Thanks for the kudos, DQ.

I do worry about what Gillick can do next year since: 1) The Phils have little young talent to fill in the gaps; 2) they can't afford to go after premier FAs because it'll cost high draft picks and that's the one area where the team does well.

With the Abreau/Lidle/Bell/Cormier salary dumps Gillick is just being honest. The team underachieved or was never that good in the first place so why pay so much? Why not pay young players who deserve it and increase payroll when more good young talent arrives?

I'll take Gillick's brutal honesty, i.e., it's more important to dump Abreu's horrendous contract (thanks Ed!) than to quibble over prospects than it is to acquire "talent" and pass off the "talent" as high-quality, i.e., Padilla, Polanco, Bud Smith, Travis Lee, etc.

[Tim]

my friend (who doesn't get too into baseball) asked me this morning why all the "money ball" teams didn't go after abreu since his obp was so great.

i didn't have any answer other than salary.

thoughts?

[Drama Queen]

I would like a Zito type starter for the Phils rotation next year, but not at the price it will take. I want to see Myers, Hamels, and Mathieson. That leaves room for 2 and I'm hoping they can land a quality guy in free agency or trade, but like stated before...not likely. It's a waiting game now. But let's try to at least enjoy the remainded of the season with some new faces, and hope for some growth and improvement in aspects of their games.

[ae]

"One of the members of the Cuban team who deserted is star second baseman Yulieski Gourriel, considered as one of the best in the world at his position," The Bogota Times reported Friday. "It appears that his next destination would the New York Yankees."

surprise!

[Matt]

great post Jason. I agree that Gillick had only 2 options: make this deal with the Yankees on Cashman's terms or keep Abreu and handcuff the finances for next year. He knows he didn't get fair value. He said it himself at the press conference.

I am still very much into this year, win lose or draw. I'm curious to see how these youngsters progress, and whether some of these clubhouse changes affect play on the field for the better.

[Billy Mac]

DQ and Paul, Why the concern about how much money Monty and the gang pocket ? Are you part of the ownership group ? I am not talking about payroll flexibility next year (as posted multiple times in the past 2 days there will be $40 to $50 M off the books now). It is highly unlikely the payroll will come close to $95M next year with Gillick's aversion to high priced free agents. And if is $95M this year or $85M this year, I care less. Should I expect a refund for my season ticket purchase ?

[Tim]

i can't wait for the lieber, rhodes announcements.

[Paul]

BM,

I am no fan of Monty and the Gang, but their profits have nothing to do with the fact that it's ridiculous to pay this squad $95M to finish under .500.

For once the Phillies have an honest person in charge. We don't know if Gillick will turn the team into a winner but at least we don't have someone blowing sunshine up our collective asses.

Gillick tried like crazy to make things work this year. His main weapon was to trade Abreu last offseason for quality starting pitching but the only starting pitching that moved was for multiple quality prospects, which the Phillies didn't have, or for big dollars, which the Phillies wisely didn't want to spend.

If Abreu couldn't fetch quality pitching in the offseason he surely wasn't going to fetch it on July 30.

[Will]

August will be the defining month for the Phil's wild card hopes. 10 games against the Mets, who hopefully begin to relax. After Aug 21, I think, the phils dont play another winning club.

[Ed]

If the Phillies sign Gourriel, I'll be satisfied with the Abreu trade, b/c that's seriously the only way they can spend the money "saved" that would justify getting what they got for Abreu.

That said, I'm not holding my breath. Abreu's contract notwithstanding, we all know the Yankees have the upper hand in getting Gourriel. I doubt we really have a shot. Hope I'm wrong.

[Will]

Tim - even moneyball teams can't understand the logic of paying a guy who refuses to bat leadoff top dollar for a high OBP. He hasn't shown power in over a year, so you can't bat him 3,4,or 5. So basically they'd be paying 15million dollars for a number 6 or 7 hitter. Only the yankees or sox can take someone like that. The sad thing is that he still fit pretty well into the phillie's line-up at #3.

AE - the only team the Bogota times cares about is the yankees. So who knows if that story has anything behind it.

[Tim]

Ed - i doubt the yankees gouriel thing. it doesn't really make sense to move cano (who is cheap and productive) just to put gouriel there. i'm going to go with gillicks past international signings and hope we have a 50/50 shot at him. plus - i never trust a statement like that without any source from the yankees, or any other organization. could be just conjecture on the reporters part.

[Ken]

Jason!!!!!!!!!! win this year??

cmon man, get real...

its funny so far the abreu-less phils are undefeated as he hasnt played and they won the last 3 LOL

i will say this, we have the cards and mets on the road this week...if phils are with 4 games after that stretch i will be hopping on the crazy bandwagon with you

Ken

[Mike H.]

When I read international signings, I thought of Japanese catchers. But Gourriel would be fantastic and a welcome change.

[ae]

IMO it makes a lot of sense for a team like the Yankees to move Cano for a productive 2B. Cano is ridiculously overvalued for an empty BA and minimal power. I would bet they could easily send him to a more desperate team for prospects at positions they actually need. and you put Cano in a less intimidating lineup and all of a sudden he's just another .290/35 double second baseman.

besides, Fox Sports also confirms Gourriel is expected to audition for the Yankees. they say NY will put him at 1B and DH Giambi. plus, Boston's going to be looking for a replacement for Lowell. so basically, we have no shot.

[Tim]

i read all that foxsports stuff too. but if cano is an empty spot what would a 21 year old gourriel be at 1st base? i'm not going to write us out of this if gillick decides he really wants him. i'll still put it at 50/50.

it's all total speculation though.

[That Dude]

Let's becareful about what we say when we "don't care" about where Moats and Brown can practice. No reason to jinx the Birds too.

[ae]

I have a hard time reading Gillick's comments yesterday and interpreting them to mean that he's willing to get into a bidding war with two of the deepest-pocketed teams in baseball for a highly touted prospect. his comments in re: international scouting seem to suggest more finding otherwise unidentified players, to me at least.

[Jason]

The Yankees were the only team willing/able to take on Abreu's entire salary. So either you trade him there for whatever they are willing to give, or you keep him and probably Burrell and get the same thing next year and you have the past couple years.

The trade was a no brainer, and it was perfectly fine. It wasn't a coup, Gillick didn't rape the yankees farm system... It was okay. It was was what needed to be done.

[Bob D]

We may see an OF traded during the offseason. The Phils will give Bourn/Roberson/Victorino/Delluca/Burrel a look to see who they want to keep. Burrel and Rowand would have more value during the offseason to trade than now. Rowand seems to hit like Rollins and both of them in the lineup together doesn't mesh well. If Victorino or Bourn can show they play well then I see Gillick keeping them to play CF and 4th OF. Delluca will probably be kept for RF since he has power and speed and can hit for average.
I was also surprised to see Bourn called up as well.
Also could we be seeing Gordon moved? Closer are hard to come by but he may be moved for salary relief as well as being valuable on the trade market. He may even bring in more than Abreu did.

[Ed]

My belief that Gourriel will likely go to the Yankees isn't based on that Bogota times article, or even the Fox article... just based on past history, it seems that high profile Cuban defectors come here to play for the Yankees. It's like Korean parents (I'm Korean) coming over here to send their kids to Harvard... It's the only institution they've heard of.

I think the most likely path will be the Yankees NOT taking Sheff's option, trading Cano for prospects, and signing Gourriel. Otherwise, I'd wager Gourriel going to that other Cuban mainstay, the Angels... but they have good infield prospects, so I really do think he'll go to the Yanks. I'm sure the Phillies will try, and I really really hope they prove me wrong and get him - but who would defect from Cuba (with all the inherent dangers involved) to play for the PHILLIES.

[Ed]

Also, as much as the Phillies may end up liking Delucci, I wonder if he'll want to re-sign with the Phillies. His comments yesterday seemed to indicate he'll sprint out of the locker on October 2. I don't blame him either. He's 31/32 isn't he? Why stay here... go to the Red Sox after they dump Nixon.

[Bob D]

If the Yanks sign Yulieski Gourriel, Maybe the Yanks will trade ARod to us for salary relief and a bag of peanuts.

[ae]

"He may even bring in more than Abreu did."

hell, Cormier brought in more than Abreu (and Lidle) did.

[Casey]

From Kevin Goldstein's article today on BP:

"While three minor Cuban players did defect there [in Colombia] last week, Gourriel's status remains unclear, but according to one source, the nation's top player is in Cuba right now and did not leave his team."