Part of CSNPhilly.com


« ESPN News: Trade particulars announced | Main | Notes from Gillick's post-trade press conference »

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Comments

I don't think this current lineup should have started all season, but it's funny that they're scoring all these runs. Seriously, are we going to miss Bobby all that much? I like Bobby, used to be my favorite Philly before Utley, but it was time to move on. Didn't want to get stuck paying him to play for another team, ala Jim Thome.

say goodbye to best leadoff hitter the organization currently has. not that he ever hit there, but that's really what he's become. sub him into the lineup today for victorino and tell me that wouldn't have been the smart thing to do all season.

I know almost everyone is negative about the roster for next season, but I'm strangly excited. I want to see Myers, Hamels, Mathieson, and 2 others in the rotation. No Lieber listed, because I'm hoping he too is traded. I want to see new faces at 3rd, C, and some of the OF. Although, having Dellucci return would be nice. It's just my opinion, but change was needed, and drastic change, not just Bell being gone.

Yes, I'm sure Lieberthal will now start hitting grand slams on a regular basis because Abreu is gone.

To answer your question: yes, the Phillies will miss Abreu.

I think we will see something like 290/420/500
next year... with power numbers back around 20 HR and 45 2B. Abreu isn't some old cripple, he still runs well and his bat speed looks the same. His numbers are down, but stats fluctuate a lot. COnsidering this is probably the worst he has hit for the Phillies in his career (still pretty good), it was another bad reason to trade him.

DQ: So you mind paying Thome this year. Do you mind having Rowand and the two young pitchers? Because Gillick could have saved the money, but would have received nothing in return. And while I agree Abreu has begun to slip, and sealed his expendability by refusing to bat leadoff or play CF, his numbers still will be hard to replace.

For those who advocate using the savings to spend on the FA market, keep in mind that the team's heavy participation there the last 3 years has a direct relationship to the lousy drafts many people are moaning about.

If the idea is to save salary, we can assume Abreu's playing time will go to Dellucci (if he's re-signed over the winter) and Victorino, and that next year's rotation will be made up entirely of kids, with Wolf and/or Lieber around as a steady hand. The real problem remains the same one we had entering this season -- who plays C and 3B? At this point the team has nothing but AAA players to trot out at those positions (assuming Lieberthal is gone). Those predicting 75-80 wins seem rather optimistic to me. Unless Gillick has some clever idea we don't foresee up his sleeve, I'm thinking 72-90 -- and with a not particularly young team. Unfortunately, I dumped my partial season ticket before THIS season, so I don't even have a way to punish the ownership for its mismanagement.

horrible deal

From Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus: "Sources indicate that Brian Cashman kept pushing the Phillies to make the deal at his price, not theirs. Keeping all their top prospects while adding a bat and an arm has to be a real feather in Cashman's cap."

I'm an FA advocate because I remember what Gillick has done in the past on three different teams. As for the Phils, those 3 years were Ed Wade years, when other teams like the Cardinals and Braves would laugh behind his back at the terrible deals he would make.

re: Abreu & Lidle for 4 minor leaguers

This is a good trade for the Phils.

(1) It continues the trend of last week's David Bell trade of trading older veterans for younger minor league talent that can provide a future for the organization and also cut payroll. By trading Bell, Abreu & Lidle, the Phils have cut payroll by at least $22 million and obtained five legitimate prospects to buttress a previously weak farm system.

(2) CJ Henry was a #1 pick of the Yanks in 2005. He is a very good prospect and plays shortstop. The Phils will eventually need a 3rd base prospect once Nunez' contract expires after 2007. Henry could play some in 2007 and work into a starting job in 2008 at 3rd base.

(3) Matt Smith, a Lefthander in AAA Yankees farm team, has excellent WHIP numbers and good strikeout to IP ratio and very small ERA. He can come up right now and help in the bullpen.

(4) Cory Lidle's spot in the rotation will be filled by Randy Wolf, who appeared today to be the Randy Wolf of old. Randy Wolf if he's like the old Randy Wolf is a much better pitcher than Cory Lidle, worth 10-15 win shares a season. Brett Myers-Randy Wolf-Jon Lieber-Cole Hamels-Ryan Madsen is not only a good rotation, but except for Lieber, all these guys are 27 or under. Myers and Wolf are your aces and Hamels with 20 Ks in his last two games is a threat to break out as an ace this year or next.

(5) Jesus Sanchez is 18, and a catcher in single A. while his numbers are not yet anything impressive, he's 18 and has 3 years of development ahead of him. The Phils badly need catching prospects in their system and he is another one to add.

(6) Carlos Monasterios has great pitching numbers so far in single A, and adding him to the single A pitcher we got in the Brewers trade, and the two pitchers we got earlier this year in the Jim Thome trade, means we finally have some pitching in the pipeline for 2008 and 2009.

(7) If you examine what Gillick has done since arriving, he's dumped Jim Thome, Bobby Abreu, Cory Lidle and David Bell, all 32 or 34 or 35 year old vets making huge amounts of payroll, for 7 minor leaguers and Aaron Rowand, a 27 year old centerfielder making much less. Overall Gillick has dumped close to $50 million in salary and replenished the farm system with 7 prospects including a former #1 draft choice in CJ Henry.

(8) Ballplayers decline sharply after age 28, and much more sharply after age 32, and there is a law of diminishing returns on superstarts making huge payroll who are 32-35 years old. If you are going to cut payroll, the moneyball-Bill James-sabrmetrics approach suggests this is where you go first.

(9) What have the phils lost? Not much. Lidle was have a 1-2 win share season--he wasn't impacting the Phils wins at all, essentially. Abreu was putting up another 30 win share season--he does that every year--but he'll be replaced in RF by Delucci or Victorino, who collectively will have 10-15 win shares, so the net difference will be about 15 - 18 win shares, or about 2 games a year. Whatever win shares thome would have had have been eclipsed by Ryan Howard's monster season.

(10) on balance, the phils don't need power hitting and on base average in RF for $11 million a year. What they need is help at 3b, C and pitching. By making these moves, they've freed up $40 million or more in payroll which they can use to address the needs they actually have. Their everyday lineup is still potent enough to score 5 runs a game, and if you're not sure, put these names through a computer simulator or lineup analyzer and you'll see that this lineup scores five runs a game:

Rollins
Victorino/Delucci
Utley
Howard
Burrell/Delucci
Rowand
Nunez
Pitcher

In fact, by putting Delucci in RF, you will still get an OBA of close to .380 and a slugging avg that is higher than Abreu's, around .500; and with Victorino, you'll get better defense, great speed on the bases and the MVP of the AAA international league last year who has tremendous potential to develop into a five tool player. Baseball prospectus really thinks highly of Victorino and he could be an excellent everyday player, as well as providing the platoon advantage v. lefthanders.

All in all, a good deal.

11) One more thing, this move is good for Bobby Abreu. Going to the Yanks will solidify his run for the HOF. One day, he will retire with 300 HR, 300 SB and may reach 3,000 hits. Being with the Yankees will magnify his greatness with the NY media and ensure his induction into the HOF. When he plays side by side with Alex Rodriguez and people see that Abreu is actually a more valuable offensive weapon, his case for the Hall will be strenthened, just as Curt Schilling's case for the Hall of Fame has been strengthened since he went to AZ & Boston and won two World Series titles and pitched on the bloody sock.

--art kyriazis, philly

bobby for 4 prospects and a fa pitcher. sweet.

Don't mind the deal. And with all due respect to Baseball Prospectus (and they are due none), I highly doubt that Gillick was "bullied" into this deal, which is basically that you are saying happened. Gillick has always believed in growing a club instead of buying one.

Once again we've always said that a deal like this would have to be accompanied by spending the saved money in off season, which is when I expect we will get a good catcher and a decent 3B.

after listening to the press conference, sounds like lieber will not be dealt. unless, of course, its for a single A OF with one leg.

11th season? I thought it was his ninth.

Yeah, doesn't sound like it. He would've had to been coupled with either Abreu or Gordon to get someone to take him. But it sounds like there will probably be a couple more deals.

Is anyone else refreshed by Gillick's frankness and honesty? I'd much rather go to the games next year, knowing that there's actually A PLAN for the future.

Art, I envy your optimism. I really do. Now, a reality check. Randy Wolf will be 30 next month (not 27) and has pitched 4 1/3 innings in the past year. Gillick signed a 38 year old Gordon to a 3 year deal, and traded for a 36 year old setup man (Rhodes) who has been dreadful. In addition he acquired 4 players at the start of the year (apparently with money saved from Thome) that have been released, designated or retired before August 1st. So much for a youth movement or shrewd moves. The Abreu deal was not trading older veterans for prospects. This was a straight out salary dump. If this is being done to acquire players next season or slash payroll is to be seen. I think most on this board would have been more comfortable with the Phils taking on some salary (like the Thome deal) and getting something meaningful in return (Cabrera, Hughes, and so forth).

Art: Thanks for the rosy summary of the minor leaguers, but the fact remains that they are mostly organizational filler. GCL is a tough league for hitters, so Henry might not be as feeble as his average makes him look, and the Phils have a team there so they at least know these kids.

By the way, have you run that lineup through your simulator? Because I'm curious to see what it says will happen, not just with three players (Rollins, Rowand, Nunez) with lousy OBPs, but with a team that fields no catcher. Five runs a game? Are you sure?

Couple problems AK, though I appreciate the novelty of your arguments.

1) THe Thome deal has nothing to do with this deal, you can't lump them all in. The positives for the THome deal have already been counted...no double counting.

2) You can say what you like about the prospects, but only Henry looks to have any potential. Two 18yo...so what their SIX years away from contributing?! The point is that these are exactly the prospects the Yankees wanted to give up...nobody in their top 3 for a player you think will go to the HOF.

3) Victorino could be valuable in CF, not RF. You should realize that you have to be a much better hitter to man a corner outfield position.

4) That team you list might score 5 runs a game, but it would give up a ton...I mean, no catcher and all.

5) Just because WOlf is back, doesn't mean we just give away a pitcher. How bout Wolf taking Madsen's spot? WIth all the problems the starters have had this year, I can't believe you would be so caviler about pitching depth.

6) What the heck does Myers and Hamels and Wolf(?!?) being aces have to do with this trade?

7) Abreu "could" have a sudden decline, but if you read your Historical Baseball abstract a little closer, you will see that players like Abreu who are rarely hurt and maintain good stolen base numbers have a much better decline phase that bulky sluggers.

8) About the only sustainable point you make is in #1, when you say the team is cutting salary...and that everyone here agrees on. And that money is not going anywhere near the baseball field.

9) Oh, and how does thses moves free up $40 million? Bell and Lidle were going to be free agents anyway, and Abreu is owed about $15 M next year, just about the amount that the PHils will be cutting their payroll.

art: Your analysis of the prospects bears no resemblance to what I'm finding out there. Your analysis of Victorino is absurd. He is no longer a prospect. What you see is what you get: A below-average OB, good speed, good glove .260 hitter. Fine for a 4th outfielder, but not close to a quality everyday player. To suggest he and Dellucci would outproduce Abreu if they played RF every day is laughable.

On ESPN, it sounded like they said that the Phillies gave Abreu $1.5 million to buy out his "no-trade" clause. The deal to me is all about money. The Phillies saved future obligations to pay a ton of money to Abreu. The prospects from the Yankees are window dressing to keep the fans somewhat happy.

I wonder how much Burrell will take to waive his "no trade" clause?

I will miss Abreu. The Phils should have gotten quality in stead of quantity. Lousy trade - put me on suicide watch please.

Having Delluca is very good he is a good hitter (not an Abreu) but more than adequate. I hope they can resign him. With Victorino playing a little more as well the Phils could get a good look to see if he is more than a 4th OF. He definetly has potential.

This trade of Abreu has brought on some of the most interesting posts to date on his site. I see many people hating the deal and missing Abreu. I will miss Abreu because I liked him, but am hopeful this trade will lead to good things. We can all speculate whatever we want about upcoming moves by Gillick for the remainder of the season and in the offseason, but only time will tell. Bottom line is that this club wasn't get the job done and it's was time to try a different approach. So happened that Gillick found it in the team's best interest to deal Abreu as part of that approach.

More about his declining #'s- if you seriously think Abreu will bounce back with power and a .950+ OPS then of course this trade looks bad, but I just don't see those type seasons anymore from Abreu. His power is gone! He gets on base brilliantly, but that's about it.

art kyriazis, philly wrote (and I respond):

> This is a good trade for the Phils.

This is as bad as anything Ed Wade ever did. This is Schilling/Rolen trade bad.

> (1) It continues the trend of last week's David Bell trade of trading older
> veterans for younger minor league talent that can provide a future for the
> organization and also cut payroll. By trading Bell, Abreu & Lidle, the Phils
> have cut payroll by at least $22 million and obtained five legitimate
> prospects
> to buttress a previously weak farm system.

Except the Phillies have acquired one recently legitimate prospect and four fillers (now "phillers"). None of these four guys have any serious upside according to BA, and BP says *if all goes right* with the Yankees' 2005 top pick, the upside is Jimmy Rollins. For that possibility they traded Abreu?

> (2) CJ Henry was a #1 pick of the Yanks in 2005. He is a very good prospect
> and
> plays shortstop. The Phils will eventually need a 3rd base prospect once
> Nunez'
> contract expires after 2007. Henry could play some in 2007 and work into a
> starting job in 2008 at 3rd base.

SO you are writing off 2007 I see, since you are saying Nunex will play the hot corner.

> (3) Matt Smith, a Lefthander in AAA Yankees farm team, has excellent WHIP
> numbers and good strikeout to IP ratio and very small ERA. He can come up
> right
> now and help in the bullpen.

How Wade-esque. A LOOGY.

> (4) Cory Lidle's spot in the rotation will be filled by Randy Wolf, who
> appeared today to be the Randy Wolf of old. Randy Wolf if he's like the old
> Randy Wolf is a much better pitcher than Cory Lidle, worth 10-15 win shares a
> season. Brett Myers-Randy Wolf-Jon Lieber-Cole Hamels-Ryan Madsen is not only
> a
> good rotation, but except for Lieber, all these guys are 27 or under. Myers
> and
> Wolf are your aces and Hamels with 20 Ks in his last two games is a threat to
> break out as an ace this year or next.

Wonderful. We're counting on Wolf as the ace, fresh off Tommy John surgery. You're not wearing pinstriped blinders, are you?

> (5) Jesus Sanchez is 18, and a catcher in single A. while his numbers are not
> yet anything impressive, he's 18 and has 3 years of development ahead of him.
> The Phils badly need catching prospects in their system and he is another one
> to add.

I can catch. Yeah, I'm in my 30s and have never played above high school, but like Sanchez, my numbers are not yet anything impressive.

> (6) Carlos Monasterios has great pitching numbers so far in single A, and
> adding him to the single A pitcher we got in the Brewers trade, and the two
> pitchers we got earlier this year in the Jim Thome trade, means we finally
> have
> some pitching in the pipeline for 2008 and 2009.

Except that we already moved one of those pitchers for F(idel) Castro, and the other, while still a prospect, has about a 5.00 ERA in Reading.

> (7) If you examine what Gillick has done since arriving, he's dumped Jim
> Thome,
> Bobby Abreu, Cory Lidle and David Bell, all 32 or 34 or 35 year old vets
> making
> huge amounts of payroll, for 7 minor leaguers and Aaron Rowand, a 27 year old
> centerfielder making much less. Overall Gillick has dumped close to $50
> million
> in salary and replenished the farm system with 7 prospects including a former
> #1 draft choice in CJ Henry.

I could have dumped those guys. Oh, and Thome, whome he dumped, could be the AL MVP this year if the White Sox get back on track. Oh, and Lidle and Bell's contracts were up this year. Oh, and Abreu led the team in Win Shares. Oh, and Rowand has the same number of win shares as David Bell. Oh, and how much of that saved salary is being spent the rest of this year to somehow create a winner or refunded to those of us who bought season tickets?

> (8) Ballplayers decline sharply after age 28, and much more sharply after age
> 32, and there is a law of diminishing returns on superstarts making huge
> payroll who are 32-35 years old. If you are going to cut payroll, the
> moneyball-Bill James-sabrmetrics approach suggests this is where you go
> first.

So you're saying we shouldn't go after big name free agents this winter who are 28 and over. Okay, so where should we spend that $50 million savings you are so excited about?

> (9) What have the phils lost? Not much. Lidle was have a 1-2 win share
> season--he wasn't impacting the Phils wins at all, essentially. Abreu was
> putting up another 30 win share season--he does that every year--but he'll be
> replaced in RF by Delucci or Victorino, who collectively will have 10-15 win
> shares, so the net difference will be about 15 - 18 win shares, or about 2
> games a year. Whatever win shares thome would have had have been eclipsed by
> Ryan Howard's monster season.

The Phils have lost 32 win shares' (pace of about 50) worth of players this weekend in exchange for 5 minor leaguers, exactly one of whom has had anything positive written about him in the past year.

Oh, and a 15-20 win share drop equals 5-7 wins, not 2. And dropping from Bell (7, on pace for 12) to Nunez (-2, on pace for -3) is another 5 wins.

Oh, and Thome's 18 win shares (pace of 30) are being eclipsed by Howard's 12 (pace of 20) in the same way the number 18 is eclipsed by 12--only in a bizarro universe. (That's 3 more losses. If you're still keeping track of Gillick's results, that's easily in the double digits of losses.)

> (10) on balance, the phils don't need power hitting and on base average in RF
> for $11 million a year.

Good thing, because they just dealt a whole lot of it.

>
> All in all, a good deal.

The worst since Schilling was traded, and even worse than the Rolen deal, where at least Polanco came this way.

> 11) One more thing, this move is good for Bobby Abreu. Going to the Yanks
> will
> solidify his run for the HOF. One day, he will retire with 300 HR, 300 SB and
> may reach 3,000 hits. Being with the Yankees will magnify his greatness with
> the NY media and ensure his induction into the HOF. When he plays side by
> side
> with Alex Rodriguez and people see that Abreu is actually a more valuable
> offensive weapon, his case for the Hall will be strenthened, just as Curt
> Schilling's case for the Hall of Fame has been strengthened since he went to
> AZ
> & Boston and won two World Series titles and pitched on the bloody sock.

And he can then demand to wear a Yankees hat on his plaque.

Anyway, you can't make the Abreu HoF argument after you just argued above how he is one the downside of his career. He has 1526 hits. You think he's only halfway done his career (and will keep up his play at this level for the whole second half?).

Dude, take off the blinders. Are you actually Pat Gillick writing in?

Bye Bye Bobby. You will be missed in Philadelphia. Just like we miss all the former players who go on to great success elsewhere.

that is the wackest most suckiest trade I ever seen. The phillies are going to be garbage.

The comments to this entry are closed.

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG