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Tuesday, May 30, 2006

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pretty sad to see the WS of non-Myers starters.

Off topic, but interesting... Clemens will pitch for Houston this year. Developing...

Update: Eude Brito will start Saturday's game, according to the Phillies official game notes released this afternoon.

Not surprisingly, of the twelve NL teams with at least a 5% chance of making the playoffs, the Phillies rotation comes out on bottom in Win Shares.

Team    SPtot   SPtop3
STL     23.4    16.5
COL     22.1    17.2
SF      22.0    16.8
LAN     21.0    15.4
HOU     20.6    16.7
NYN     18.0    17.6
CIN     17.2    16.0
ATL     17.0    16.4
ARI     16.9    15.4
SD      16.4    10.6
MIL     14.3    14.0
PHI     14.0    10.7

Only Milwaukee has had as poor production from their starters as have the Phillies, and only San Diego's top 3 starters have been as bad as ours (Myers: 6.5; Lidle: 2.4; Lieber: 1.8). Ugh.

I really hope Eude Brito pitches a gem this weekend. Not just so that the Phillies win, but also so when Hamels is healthy they may consider demoting Head Case known as Floyd.

I love Myers, he's a gutsy pitcher and that's what you need in Philly.

Thanks for the Win Shares...more evidence that the rotation has been the major problem so far this year.

Brito is free! I'm not expecting much other than 6 IP, 3-4 runs, but it should help that he will be in a pitcher friendly park.

Also, anyone see the note in the Daily News that Hamels rehab start will be on the same day Floyd starts...meaning the Golden One may be heading to Scranton! Wow, and Charlie is resting a starter...I'm starting to get excited again. Gotta get some runs for Myers.

I just checked the gamecast and Burrell is in the lineup. And Lieberthal is back, he's going to seem like Dutch out there after the Fassano/Ruiz disaster.

Marlon Byrd AND Marlon Anderson get the start for the Nats. Phils should have a nice advantage tonight.

Wow, a perfect throw AND a perfect block of the plate!

Wow, calling Lieby "Dutch" is quite the statement.

kdon...although, I'm glad to have Lieby's "offense" back, I would really like Ruiz to get another chance.

Not saying Ruiz is going to be bad in the future, but he really killed the team with his bat. The Phillies are too close to being good to start a 27yo rookie. I'd rather have him as the backup than Fassano, however.

As hard as it is to believe for most Phils fans, Lieby is in the upper half of htting catchers in baseball, whereas, Fassano/Ruiz may have been the worst.

My issue with Lieby isn't his offense, it's his lack of defensive skills.

Thanks for the homerun Bobby!

I like it when Myers pitches, gives me hope!

Quiet on Beerleaguer?...oh, they must be winning.

prediction for the ninth: Pop up, K, single, groundout, flash's hand in the air

They should all be this easy (at least against the Nationals).

9 quality starts in a row. Jason, please make sure in 5 days that the subheadline is "Brett Myers will try for his tenth-consecutive quality start today against the Dodgers." That seems to work...

One of the better wins of the season right there. You knew the Phils should have the advantage with Myers pitching against a weaker lineup, and for once this season, a game went according to plan. Nothing fancy from Myers tonight, just good, smart, pitching. Good mix of pitches, good pace. Phils go for sweep and fourth-straight win tomorrow.

Nice win, only missteps were J-Roll's DP and a hanging curveball. A sweep would be nice. Mets are down big in the ninth!!

"Fassano/Ruiz may have been the worst."

Look at Sal's stats again my friend. Lieby's OBP is only 23 points higher and over the last 2 weeks Sal played some damn good defense.

Anyone else think it wierd that Soriano leads off for the Nationals? Why not swap him with Vidro? If it twer cholly he'd get killed. Abreu seems poised to erase any speculation that he ought to lead off...

Dude, when has Sal's defense been good? I just remember seeing him flop all over the place trying to find some popped up bunts. Teams seem comfortable running on him at will.

I agree his offense has finally become mediocre (a nice step up!). Last night they ran a Sal Fasano highlight reel inbetween innings and it was just different camera angles of his one homerun.

Well, 23 points of OBP is nothing to sneeze at, nor is another 30 points of SLG, but I didn;t realize Fassano was hitting that "well."

Still, considering how Ruiz hit, Lieby will still be an upgrade for overall production, though he might struggle initially getting his stroke down.

Also, I'm with ToA on Sal's defense...Lieberthal may not be Pudge, but he is better than the Mustache.

Fasano has made some highlight worthy plays but they have been overshadowed by several boneheaded mental errors that lead to major miscues. A MLB veteran like Fasano should not be making these types of mistakes.

Fasano seems to have a decent arm and blocks the plate well but overall his defense is below average. He has problems blocking pitches and limited mobility. Ruiz' arm is as good as Fasano and he seems must more agile behind the plate.

Still, neither Fasano nor Ruiz have produced enough with the bat. I am really disappointed by the lack of power by Fasano. Lieby is a marginal offensive upgrade but Lieby has also lost alot of his power. Still Phils are better off with Lieby behind the plate than Captain Meatball.

Phils just finished the hardest part of their schedule this year. The schedule in June is a little bit easier but the Phils have another brutal stretch from June 13-25.

Here is the schedule:
-3 games vs. Mets (home)
-3 games vs. Rays (home)
-3 games vs. Yanks (home)
-3 games vs. Red Sox (away)

Unforunately, I could easily see the Phils going 4-8 or 5-7 through this stetch. Even the Devil Rays are scrappier than people think and I am not sure if the Phils have to face Kazmir.

Well, with Lieberthal back and Sal's "personal pitcher" on the DL, I hope we will be seeing a lot less of the Mustache.

Those win share stats are really interesting. Notice that all but .4 of the Mets' SP win shares come from the top 3. How precarious is that? And notice the nice spread the Cardinals have -- almost 7 WS from non-top 3 starters. Ya think they might have an arm to trade, especially with this new kid Reyes looking good?

"Hello, Walt Jocketty? Pat Gillick here. Have any pitching to spare? We've got several outfielders who are all better than Encarnacion, Rodriguez, Taguchi and Bigbie. A couple who are much, much better."

Also on the subject of stats, I should note two things about the Phillies that have been bugging me that are now trending in the right direction. They now have a winning record at home (I suppose you can be a winning team without having a winning home record, but it's damn hard); and they have now scored more runs than they have allowed, thanks to that Memorial Day laugher.

I will sleep better tonight.

MG, that road trip to LA and Ariz is no piece of cake. Except for series with Devil Rays and the Orioles, and another round with the Nationals, the entire month of June has the Phillies up against teams that are their equal or better. If they finish with a June record that matches May, I will be impressed.

When do we get to play the Marlins again? Oh, not until the end of July.

Thome is second overall in Win Shares.

Fasano may not be much of a player but he sure has inspired a lot of great nicknames.

Pitching's been the reason for the 3-game winning streak. Opposition's tally has been 2 runs, 2 runs, 2 runs. You tend to look a lot better when you're not bringing in six pitchers a game.

I don't understand a lot people infatuation with Mike Lieberthal. I will give it, that he has committed a handful of solid seasons to this team, but his offense isn't as great as everyone is piping it up to be. He started off hot this year. And I'm sorry, but he is bad defensively all around, except for the occasional blocked pitched. Don't expect him to hit above .280...he's just not that good.

With that said: the Phillies have had a nice 3 game stretch, but like said above, they should beat the Nats!!!

I can't speak for anyone else, but there was a team when you got a solid offensive season of 15-20 homeruns (31 in '99!), from lieberthal and he was one of the more feared arms behind the plate. Then a huge contract, injuries, Perfesser Kerrigan and to much time logged on those knees forced him into mediocrity. Last season Jason noted that he was looking plain bored with playing baseball and I figured that was pretty much it for him. So I'm glad he's having a bit of an offensive improvement this season - his line drive percentage is up, which is good to see - that's always how he used to get his best hits.

I'll give credit to Lieby for what he did a seasons ago, but of late he hasn't been that good. Like I've said before, my major problem with him is his defensive skills and lack of knowledge calling a game. I don't expect Johnny Bench like #'s from him offensively either, after all he is only a catcher and now in his mid 30's. But I just don't get why people were getting so excited about his limited success hitting this season.

Lieberthal is servicable, his value inflated by the overall lack of decent catching around baseball and in the Phillies organization. At this stage of his career, he's defensively suspect, and offensively very slow, with an average BAvg with no power.
As for the defensive skills of the Phillies catchers overall, you can rest easy. CM's quote from yesterday, "I like my catchers to play solid defense".
So what many of us have thought was catching that was defensively mediocre at best, with passed balls, inability to throw out base stealers, inability to block low pitches, etc., is actually "solid".

Why is Howard so far down on the win share list? I have a hard time believing Brian McCann and Brad Ausmus have "won" more games then Ryno.

Ausmus gets 1.6 defensive win shares, McCann 1.9 - Howard only 0.3 shares.

Ok, let's focus on some positives:

1. Ryan Howard can flat out mash the ball!

2. Aaron Rowand plays with balls, and I don't just mean baseballs.

3. Utley is fun to watch as an all-around athlete.

4. Myers as come into his own, and is an established ace.

5. Flash Gordon has produced better than expected.

6. Burrell and Abreu, albeit with short-comings, are having very nice seasons.

There just thought I of all people should focus on some positives this season. I have been very let down thus far, because I want more from this team. But, it's not like the Phillies are the Royals or anything.

MG, I'd vote for the period of August 1st through August 17th as the toughest. It starts with three straight road three game series with the Cards, Braves & Mets, followed by a day off, then a home stand starting with three games with Cincy and FOUR straight against the Mets. They don't get a day off until Aug. 28th. I think August is the killer part of the season for the Phillies.

Tony, Win Shares counts defense, so two very good defensive catchers are going to be more valuable than a bad fielding 1B, even with the tremendous offensive gap. Howard won't continue to make errors at this rate, and McCann and AUsmus will cool off with the bat.

CB, I don't think any one here is "infatuatred" with Liebey. I think he is an above average catcher, and significantly better than Ruiz or THe Moustache. As George S. noted, catching is pretty difficult to find in baseball.

I don't think Libey is as bad defensively as he is being made out here. On blocking balls in the dirt, he has been good. He got a bad rap for throwinfg out base stealers but that was during the two years of Kerrigan's no slide-step policy. As for calling a game, I don't really think any of us are qualified to judge that. Myers seems to pitch well with him, and he always put up a better Catcher ERA than Pratt.

rumor: 3-way trade involving Yanks, Marlins, and Phils. Yanks get Burrell or Abreu, Marlins prospects, and Phils Willis. I don't see this happening, but it is intriguing.

Carson, where do the prospects come from? I hear the Yankees' prospect cupboard is bare and I know the Phillies aren't bulging at the seams with prospects. I'd love to see Willis in Philly, however, I don't see it happening either.

Where did you hear the rumor?

Interesting, if the Yankees picked up all of Burrell's salary, and the prospects didn;t include Hamels, I would do this.

If it means Abreu or Hamels is gone...it would be really bad.

Phillies get Yankees prospects for Abreu. Phils package those prospects with their own and deal for Willis. That's what I heard. Hard to believe Marlins would not try to leverage Hamels into the deal.

This is a deal that would wipe out the Phillies farm system, and send away their best run producer, for Dontrelle Willis.

I might be more willing to give them Hamels, less prospects, straight up for Dontrelle, and keep Abreu, or not make this deal.

I got the rumor from ESPN Insider's rumor central.

the Yanks Duncan and Phillip Hughes are the names being tossed around, but Duncan is a fallen potential star, who is absolutely struggling in Triple AAA.

It is hard to imagine that the Yankees could come up with prospects good enough to pry Abreu.

This would not be a good deal.

I agree. Yankees need to cough up much more in this deal.

I also heard a rumor that the phillies were looking at Aaron Small. The dude is not a good pitcher and would not help the Phillies. His 10 wins for the Yanks last year were a fluke!

From my perspective I would hate to part with either Burrell or Abreu, because I think they do a lot for this team. And I'm not trying to start another debate about either of those two. However, if trading one of them improves the club by adding a frontline pitcher which could lead to stablizing the staff, well then I wish them luck just like with the Thome trade.

Somebody with more time on his hands than I have should do a write-up on Lieby and Dutch at their peaks. Lieby was the better all-around player, Dutch the better hitter, although Lieberthal did have have two or three strong offensive years as well. You'd have to go with Dutch on intangibles (though I'm not entirely sure what that means), and I've never liked Mike's game calling.

Lieberthal was once a top-tier catcher, he is nothing close to that anymore!

Overall: PA OPS+
Liebey 4382 103
Dutch 4336 113

Peak (Top 5 years) OPS +

Lieby 126/119/116/103/100

Dutch 156/137/135/121/116

Dutch was waaay better at his peak. Defense, I don't know.


burrell gets a day off today, in his place david dellucci. i would rather see victorino in LF today. he' s hitting .333 and brings a lot to the team when he's in the lineup (speed, D, etc.) as long as manuel doesn't say post-game anything like "needing bench players AB's so they stay sharp" because 1)nune hasn't started a game in two weeks and 2)dullucci hasn't hit over .251 in 5 years so i doubt a few more AB's will help him much

jimmy rollins once again doing a good job seeing pitches and working the count from the leadoff spot...

Adam Dunn's only hit over .250 once in his career. Reds should probably bench him for someone who can hit.

That was a dumb comment...comparing Dunn to Nunez or Dellucci is just stupid. I think you missed the point!

pretty sure you missed the point, buddy. big difference between Nunez (no power, no walks) and Dellucci (at best, decent power, good walk rate) and Dellucci's much closer to Dunn than he is to his teammate.

Adam Dunn is a proven power threat and gets on base at a solid clip. I like Dellucci, but he had one good year...it's just not a fair comparison!

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