Borrowing advice from elementary school teachers everywhere: the Phillies need to put on their thinking caps (thinking cap pictured below).
Beerleaguer got an e-mail this morning that pointed out that if you take away the first week of the season, the Phillies have gone 11-8, a pace that translates into a 94-win season.
They’ve been damn lucky.
Sad but true: On this road trip, the Phils matched up pretty evenly with Pittsburgh and Florida. True, the Phils had another gritty comeback last night. True, they did so off Ricky Nolasco, who spent all of last season with Double-A West Tennessee. Nolasco gave up two walks a hit and a home run in 2-3 innings of work. The bases-loaded triple by Aaron Rowand came off Matt Herges. Herges is a bum.
Good teams beat weak competition. The Phillies haven’t done that. A big reason why is the Phils are playing foolish baseball. They aren’t thinking. Their lack of focus has blurred every portion of their game, from the number of times opposing pitchers have been allowed to hurt them with the bat, to base-running mistakes, like Pat Burrell getting thrown out three times in six games at second base. Offensively, their poor marks with RISP speak volumes about their inability to zero in and execute. Most of the lineup has burned themselves at least once with an impatient at bat when the opposing pitcher had been struggling. In fact, several pitchers they struggled with this season were sent back to the minor leagues.
The Marlins are a very, very poor club and managed to climb back into the game yesterday thanks to some amateur-hour plays from Sal Fasano and Ryan Howard. During the broadcast, Chris Wheeler said every game for the Marlins will be an adventure because of their inexperience. I laughed, and then cursed, because the Phils looked just as horrendous.
Pitching hasn’t been sharp, either. Jon Lieber has pitched better than his line would indicate, but he’s made several costly errors, including last night. Against a lineup that had been fooled on every breaking ball away, Lieber tested free-swinging Reggie Abercrombie with a slider that arrived dead-center. Abercrombie turned it into an RBI triple. With such a one-sided matchup, vet-vs.-rookie, that should never happen.
The Phillies won’t be able to rely on ridiculous breaks (like a 3-2 bunt double play) when they face Atlanta tonight, a team that plays intelligent baseball. More than any team I’ve seen the last 10+ years, the Braves find ways to capitalize on mental breakdowns.
I look at tonight's matchup, Smoltz vs. Myers, and feel like it's the first non-exhibition game they've had in weeks. John Smoltz (1-2, 4.09 ERA) isn’t just a great pitcher, he’s a fearless captain and confident fielder.
Will the Phillies finally turn it around at home?
Put on those thinking caps, boys.




Unleash Cole Hamels.
Posted by: That Dude | Wednesday, May 03, 2006 at 01:29 PM
i saw at the bottom of the UTK article on baseball prospectus's website that the pirates are dangling oliver perez and ryan doumit to the phils. i thought id see what everyone here thinks of that and i was wondering who they would be asking for in return? surely not cole but maybe floyd or ruiz?
Posted by: pat | Wednesday, May 03, 2006 at 02:09 PM
right, because Madson & Floyd have certainly shown us that good performance in limited appearances = consistent regular season success.
Posted by: ae | Wednesday, May 03, 2006 at 02:09 PM
Man, what happened to Oliver Perez? He looked like the nastiest lefty to come along since Randy Johnson, and the next thing you know, he's got a Cormier-like ERA and he can't throw strikes. I don't know if I'd be willing to take anything that a team as bad as the Pirates doesn't want.
The Braves come in with the same record as the Phillies, and an identical three-game win streak. I still feel it will be Atlanta and not the Mets on top of the division at the end. Their psychological advantage of being winners every year no matter what kind of start they get off to will surely carry them easily past teams like the Phillies, who have just as strong of a psychological disadvantage - a loser's complex, in short.
For those who feel I emphasize such things too often, I hold that the mental aspect of sports is *enormous* and it's easy to discern how it affects outcomes during games and over the course of seasons.
Posted by: RickSchuBlues | Wednesday, May 03, 2006 at 02:36 PM
I would not welcome Oliver Perez or Ryan "Nomitt" Doumitt.
The Phillies got extremely lucky in the Marlins series, but they'll take what they can get. I just hope the team and the fans don't have illusions based on a 2 game sweep of a Triple-AAA team!
Posted by: Carson Book | Wednesday, May 03, 2006 at 02:37 PM
Perez is damaged goods at this point. His velocity is down and his control is no better than when he broke into the league as a twenty year old. The Buccos are seriously conisdering him for demotion, because he has pitched worse than Duke, Snell and Maholm. I like Doumitt, but not for what the Phils are after. He is hit-first catch-poorly catcher (Lieberthal?) with excellent power potential that fits well on a team like Pittsburgh where he can catch and play RF/1B. Pirates may be trying to raise the price for Paulino, whom the Phils have inquired about. That being said, if the price was right...which it won't be...it may be worth the risk.
Posted by: Corey | Wednesday, May 03, 2006 at 03:48 PM
it was very well put that this is the phil's "first non exhibition game". in seperating the men from the boys the phil's haven't been able to seperate themselves from the braves in a loooong time. this could be myer's coming out party. imagine the hype if he outdueled smoltz.
Posted by: Tim | Wednesday, May 03, 2006 at 05:29 PM