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Wednesday, March 29, 2006

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Padilla is capable of winning fifteen games for the Rangers and I'm so pissed off by the way the whole thing was handled I'd love to see him do it. Responsibility for this deal really belongs with Ed Wade, of course, but it is hard to believe Gillick couldn't have worked out a deal for someone, perhaps a third base coach. My impression of Gillick after these few short months is that when he wants someone he is going to get him no matter what people think (Franklin is a case in point) and, conversely, when he wants to get rid of someone he is equally unmoved by public opinion.

Well, forget everything I said today...if Gillick can release Rodriguez, I guess he can do about anything at this point.

considering that kenny rogers posted a 3.46 ERA for texas last year and didn't win 15, i think it's pretty unlikely that padilla will hit that mark. (i will be surprised if padilla's ERA isn't at least a run higher than that.)

not to say that i like this move. it's embarrassingly, shockingly bad and if gillick wants any credibility, he had better acknowledge that publicly. moving padilla was the right thing in theory, but moving him for rodriguez was clearly not.

I get the feeling the Phillies plan is to move Madson to the bullpen.

I've got to be honest: I'm still a little torn. The Phillies know more about their bullpen situation than anyone, and if they are uncomfortable, they need to take the whatever steps are necessary, including moving Madson back to the bullpen. The last thing they want is another bullpen fiasco like last April.

I guess the question is this: Are the Phillies a better team with Madson in the bullpen?

!!!!! Stop the presses!!!!!

i was in the deli today and picked up baseball weekly and they pick the PHILLIES!!!!!!

THE PHILLIES!!!!!

to win the world series!!!!!

i actually didnt have time to read the article yet but i will tonite...

wow...

So far, I am less than totally impressed by Gillick. His best move was trading Thome for Rowand and some promising young talent. However, some of his subsequent moves have made little sense. Sort of like rearranging deck chairs.

I'm not terribly upset about his not acquiring an ace or even a solid #3 starter. After all, the market for starting pitching is ridiculously high right now, and we have a few youngsters who may develop into passable starters, even high quality ones. I'm also glad he hasn't traded Abreu. Not that he's irreplaceable, but I don't believe we can get what he's truly worth on the market as it is today.

But the Padilla thing has been a total head scratcher. You would think that Padilla would have at least brought in some high quality minor leaguers, maybe a few promising bullpen guys. Instead, one guy who was subsequently released.

the thought of madson in the pen makes me sick. if that plays out, the franchise woudl have continued to look back for solutions instead of forward. plus, manuel would have to eat his words from last night to randy miller about madson's rotation spot being safe. what are the chances that franklin moves to the pen? or that tejeda or brito make the team?

Baseball Weekly picked the Phillies? Man, I guess spring training has an effect on some people...

Basically, it boils down down to the fact that they pretty much released Padilla the same way they released Rodriguez. I figure Gillick must have known all along that there very well might not have been a spot for him. That's how much this team had soured on Padilla. Well, whatever. Just move on. They're probably better off without either of them.

Maybe Madson in the pen makes them a better team (maybe), but the guy deserves better. Even though they're short in the bullpen, I still say Madson is too good to waste for an inning every other day. There has to be a better solution.

we could've traded rodriguez to get AQUALUNG back. damn.

AP already has a Gillick quote:

"Turned out it wasn't a good trade," Gillick said.

I think we're going to see Franklin in the pen and Floyd as our 5. I just don't think they'd stretch Madson out like that all spring, watch him pitch 6 scoreless against the Yankees, and then put him in the pen when Franklin could fill that RP role somewhat effectively until Booker is back. I make these guesses b/c I think the Phillies brass still realizes that the starting rotation HAS to be solid or else the pen won't matter. And with Lieber, Myers, Lidle, Madson, Floyd... well, I've seen worse. Mostly here in Philly, but whatever.

Also, something about how Manuel says he's made his decision already, and seeing Madson go 6 strong yesterday wasn't why he made the choice he did, makes me think that Madson is in the rotation.

And finally, do they really want a disgruntled (however internal it stays) Madson on their hands?

PS: I actually love the fact they cut Rodriguez. Yeah, the trade got us nothing, though I personally think dropping Padilla was addition by subtraction, but whatever.

What this shows me the most is that these Phillies aren't going to keep ppl that stink for no reason. Therefore, good bye Rodriguez, good bye Tomas Perez, good bye David Be... oh wait.

"Turned out it wasn't a good trade," Gillick said.

ha!

Gillick traded his problem for Texas'problem -- two guys with sub-standard team attitudes. It didn't work for the Phils, but reminds me of what Gene Mauch said when fans got upset that the Phils traded Wes Covington: "Some times you add by subtracting." That works when what you are subtracting is a negative number -- both Padilla and Rodriguez seem like big negative numbers to me. Hats off to Pat for admitting it wasn't a good trade, but the Phils are better off for the way it played out.

Only took 13 innings to figure that out!

The Madson vs. Franklin "conundrum" reminds me of a trade from the Ed Wade Era, the Polanco for Urbina deal. Even ignoring hindsight, this was a bad deal, and it's the result of a similar situation: an inability to understand comparative value (and an inability to bench veterans like Bell, even if they underperform). As a great fielder and a .316 hitter (before the trade), Polanco was MUCH more valuable than Urbina could have HOPED to be, even at his best.

Case in point: in 1998, Urbina's best year, he went 6-3, 1.30 ERA, 94 Ks in 69.1 IP, 34 saves in 38 opportunities, and amassed 17 win shares. And that was as a closer, 7 years earlier; in 2005, he had 9.

Polanco? Polanco got 22, to David Bell's 9.

Even if Polanco only finished the year with 17 or 18, it still would've been nearly impossible for Urbina to give the Phillies the same amount of value over a generic pitcher that Polanco had over Bell. Even if you don't believe in Win Shares, it's common sense: a good 3B is more important than a good setup man. And the same is largely true for SP vs. RP.

The only question is Madson's level of performance, and I think that after his commanding 6 1/3 shutout innings against Yankees starters, the answer in my opinion is that he could be at least as good as Lieber, who got 12 win shares last year. Madson is undoubtedly a better pitcher than Franklin, and so you want him where he can do the most good--in the rotation. If Manuel (or Gillick) cannot recognize this, they do not deserve their jobs.

I'm a big fan of Madson, because grondball pitchers who also strike guys out are rare.

He was wasted in the bullpen. He doesn't really have one overwhelming "out" pitch, which is what elite relievers need. Instead, he has three above average ML pitches, which is what starters need, especially his change-up.

His game is tailored to CBP, and in the rotation he can utilize all of his gifts to full effect. Stamina might be an issue in 2006, so here's hoping he is the kind of pitcher who actually can go 200+ innings.

We might look back on the past 2 years as a blessing, limiting the damage to Madson's arm as he was learning to throw to major league hitters. I dare say that Mark Prior wises he had been throwing only 75 innings a year his first two years up.

Adam, I don't entirely agree. Granted, Polanco at third made way more sense, but Urbina was not the cipher that people make him out to be. The biggest strength of the Phillies coming down the stretch last year was their seventh-eighth-ninth inning relief pitching, which with the exception of an often faltering Madson, was extremely solid. Urbina didn't get the job done every single time, but I was certainly confident with him out there. It's the same as having to give up Michaels, another valuable player, to get Rhodes. Bell had no value; Polanco did. They needed a set-up guy. "Win Shares" aside, it's hard to say that having Polanco at third would have translated into more wins than having a quality guy bridge the late-inning gap to Wagner.

Boy, what an upgrade

Vicente Padilla to Ryan Franklin!!!!!

'Turns Out it Wasn't A Good Trade'? that quote suggests exactly what Tom G said - at least Gillick doesn't give a damn what anyone thinks.

Regarding Padilla, I still maintain, and I've yet to see someone disprove this - the Trading market for a starting pitcher was not great this year. That's the Trading Market, not the Free Agent Market. If anything, the blue jays ballyhooed signing of Burnett muddied the waters on trading Padilla. We all assumed that there wouldn't just be a market for padilla's skills, but there would be a buyers desperate for what he had to offer. Paying cold hard cash can be easier than handing over prospects or valuable players. Cash hurts in the long run, sure, but trading a player is something that can have an immediate and drastic effect on a team next season. And trading prospects . .. . well we've all bitched about how much Ed Wade used to give up for veteran relievers. Padilla was a conundrum wrapped in an enigma etc. etc. If Gillick couldn't sell that to another MLB exec, it just means that this year there weren't enough suckers on the vine.

I'm not absolving gillick of the trade - to only get rodriguez and nothing else is desperation, pure and simple. But I waited for padilla to get really good for too long. He's gone. It was a bad trade. Enough already. I'd rather pull for ryan madson in the starting line-up.

(Sorry jason. Overlong. Apologies for clogging your comments section)

Gillick played no favorites for a guy he traded for (Rodriguez), so I can see him sending Franklin to the pen. Madson and Floyd make the team as starters. The other option is Floyd in AAA and Tejada in the pen. A wild card in the pen is Cormier may be traded for a 5th OF but that is less likely now Lopez and Rodriguez are gone. The depth (in numbers) they had is now gone and only leaves Brito, Yoel Hernandez, and Booker (on DL) as the only relievers ready in the minors.

If much of Ryan Franklin's contract is based on incentives for IP, then it's going to be a tough sell to put him in the bullpen, given that he has performed well in spring training. You're basically lowering his salary for no reason other than team need. I don't think Gillick envisioned having this problem: a couple of young starters making life difficult for him by overperforming in spring training.

What to do? If you believe in playing the hot hand, you start Floyd and put Franklin in the pen, salary adjustment be damned. (Nobody seems to care that Lieber stunk up the joint all spring when we talk about playing the hot hand).
Or you put Floyd in the pen, ready to step in if/when Franklin falters.
Or you put Floyd in AAA, ready to move as above.

One last option not discussed depends on your confidence level in Madson and Floyd. Trade one of your starters right now for a solid middle reliever and/or 3B. Would you run the risk of trading someone like Cory Lidle right now for a solid middle reliever and a almost ready minor league 3B or C? You have potential starters in the wings in the persons of Wolf and Tejeda. And as much as I personally think you never trade a starter for a reliever, this might help break up a logjam and fill a hole in the roster. Just a thought, and it doesn't have to be Lidle. And it is one big gamble that takes some cajones!

According to an article on phillies.com, "two team sources" say that the Phillies are leaning towards putting Franklin in the pen, and Franklin is fine with that as long as he is he given a significant role.

But Gillick has said that the decision is up to Manuel, which means...who knows.

Well, if the decision really is Manuel's, I think Franklin is headed for the 'pen. I really don't know how he'll fit there, though. Has he ever been a reliever?

I wouldn't be shocked, however, if Gillick has some other surprises in store before Monday.

If Rodriguez really wasn't going to help the team, better to dump him than pretend you "got something" for Padilla.

The Phils really must've been convinced that Padilla is this close to bursting into flames on the mound, or something.


Rick--Franklin started off his career as a reliever, similarly to Madson though he moved to the rotation quicker. He was very solid as a long reliever in 2001, and pretty good in 2002, though he also started 12 games. He seems to have struck out more batters in relief, and while he still allowed too many HRs, he didn't allow too many walks. If he can replicate that, the addition of Rowand in CF could really help him out and make him effective.

The difference now is that he was in long relief in that situation (in 2001, he threw 78.1 innings in 38 relief appearances), whereas the Phillies will be expecting him to pitch through just the 7th inning consistently over the course of the year.

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