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Crystal ball

Not-so far-fetched predictions from the Phillies great beyond.

This will be Pat Burrell’s last season with the Phillies.
Even though Pat the Bat has two years left on his deal after this season, Burrell would skip lukewarm Philadelphia for the sunny south as quickly as he can turn a blonde’s party dress into a crumpled pile on the floor. This guy longs for the warm weather and tan bodies of Miami U. He’s never embraced his role as team centerpiece, and never will. Where was Pat when the Winter Tour spread good cheer across the Delaware Valley? I can name $50 million good reason why at least one weekend should have been spent at a suburban shopping mall signing autographs instead of .... well, maybe not. If Burrell has another productive season, Pat Gillick will trade his right-handed slugger while his stock is still high.

Randy Wolf will replace Ryan Madson in the starting rotation.
Because Madson is brittle and the bullpen will need him. I look at Madson and see "stick" and know sticks break easily. I also see the kind of jerky delivery that frayed Wade Miller’s rotator cuff. I’m satisfied with his pitch selection, but concerned about his durability.

The Phillies will draw 500,000 more fans than last season.
Enough to make up what they lost from 2004. It can’t possibly be as stinking hot as last summer, can it? That July-August stretch was a nightmare for players and fans alike. Buff guys like Burrell looked like Olympic sprinters. Vicente Padilla appeared to shread 10 pounds of water weight every time he pitched, and that was just from his head.

But more than weather, this is an exciting product. There’s Howard, who can hit 40, Abreu and Utley, who could win the batting title, and Rowand patrolling center field like G.I. Joe. At $15 bucks for the cheapest seats, this is the best sports value in town. That's what hockey fans are bamboozled into spending to see minor-leaguers skate around the Spectrum.

Nice knowing you, Eude Brito. Don’t get comfortable, Rob Tejeda.
Brito was a one-hit wonder, and if the starting rotation stays healthy, we may not see Robinson Tejeda’s face much, either. Brito is too small to be a starter and only has value as an emergency spot-lefthander out of the bullpen. Tejeda has two major threats: Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels. If healthy, Hamels will zip right past him.

Gary Varsho will assert himself as a top managing candidate.
If Manuel’s club sinks 10 games out by the end of May, he’s toast, and the in-house answer would be Varsh, a guy many people around baseball expected to be a major-league manager by now. If the Phillies go far, expect Varsho to get interviews with other clubs.

Bobby Abreu will be just as productive, but more unpopular than ever.
Because he’s the scapegoat if the starting pitching breaks down. I don’t envy Abreu, who went from having five countrymen on his team last season to having none if Tomas Perez doesn’t come north. Meanwhile, he’s surrounded by no less than five players who are better-loved, and he’s got more talent than all of them. I see Abreu as someone who will quietly request a trade, which will come out in the papers and only make him more unpopular, even though the vocal masses wanted him traded anyway.

Pat Gillick will make a deadline deal that will make heads spin.
At 68, Gillick isn’t standing pat. He targeted the Phillies as a team damn close to a championship and pounced. He’s got the connections and respect to pull off a deal. I see Zito, Pettitte, and a batch of minor leaguers I’d drop in seconds to take a chance and go for it right now.

State your Phillies peace and win a book

How will the Phillies finish in 2006? Give us your take and win a book.

By now, most of you have seen my Phillies preview in the Hardball Times, in which I predict 91 wins and a playoff birth. You may have seen that USA Today believes the Phillies are fit to go even further, picking them as the surprise favorite to win the World Series. Today, Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News jumped on board, predicting around 93 wins and the NL Wild Card.

Now it’s your turn. In 500 words or less, tell me where the team stands, good or bad. You can chose a broad subject, like the team overall, or narrow it down a single player or focus.

The writer who makes the most convincing argument will receive a copy of "The Last Nine Innings," the new book by Charles Euchner.

"The Last Nine Innings" is a pitch-by-pitch account of the 2001 World Series finale, when the Arizona Diamondbacks rallied in the bottom of the ninth inning to beat the New York Yankees. The book provides an in-depth view of the revolutionary changes in the national pastime. Euchner brings the reader behind the scenes to see how scientific analysis, exotic statistics and globalization have changed the game forever.

Submit your entries in the comments thread below, and before Monday’s season opener, I’ll pick a winner and send that person the book. No need to include an address at this time.

Links: Bill Conlin picks Wild Card, USA Today picks World Series, Beerleaguer picks playoffs

Reading roster includes last-minute surprises

Reading Phillies beat writer Mike Drago has the latest scoop on the R-Phils roster, including the return of a highly regarded prospect, and Phillies return of a Scranton favorite. For the latest, click here, and here.

Gavin Floyd wins final spot in rotation

So says Phillies.com this morning. Meanwhile, a report in the Courier Post says Ryan Franklin will be headed to the bullpen.

Floyd was not expected to contend for a spot in the rotation, but bullied his way into the mix, going 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA this spring. The 23-year-old right-hander is scheduled to start Saturday's exhibition game against Boston.

Franklin is 8-1 with a 3.83 ERA in his career as a reliever. According to the article, he will fill the role Ryan Madson held last season. Madson will become the team's No. 4 starter.

To clear room, the Phillies optioned Robinson Tejeda and Eude Brito to the minor leagues. Each started only one game this spring. Infielder Danny Sandoval was also optioned to the minors.

Beerleaguer take
So much has changed since the day pitchers and catchers reported over a month ago. Suddenly, a player who brought nothing but despair last season has become a vital part of this team's quest for a championship. It's a credit to Floyd, and to the organization, for having faith and patience in a maturing player.

Good stuff, good stuff. The team appears brutally intent on bringing the best players of spring north. You've got to love that. The team may not stop there. Gillick is reportedly shopping for a reliever and fifth outfielder.

Ricardo Rodriguez released by Phillies

According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, pitcher Ricardo Rodriguez has been released, meaning the deal that sent Vicente Padilla to Texas generated nothing in return.

This is the team's second move in a head-scratching 24 hours. Aquilino Lopez, a struggling relief pitcher, was traded for two prospects, while Rodriguez, who could conceivably latch on somewhere in a starting rotation, was not traded for anything.

Beerleaguer take
No matter how much the Padilla trade was about saving money or ridding the team of a headache, this is a real blunder for Pat Gillick. There's no excuse for not getting something better in return, even a bag of baseballs.

At least he's not afraid to cut his losses.

Final spot will be more than 'Mr. Irrelevant'

As the Phillies prepare to narrow the roster to 25 players, no one should be feeling the pressure more than manager Charlie Manuel, who is about to make his first big decision under new boss Pat Gillick.

Charlie Manuel’s choices are as follows: Bring the best 25 players north to Philadelphia per the original plan, or cover his tail by playing politics, staying loyal to struggling veterans or one of the other tendencies winning teams do not do.

Manuel will be making more than one player unhappy. Ryan Franklin could be one of them. Hand picked by the man himself, Gillick thought he saw something in Franklin, who wore out his welcome in Gillick’s old stomping ground, Seattle. He signed a 1-year, $2.6 million deal with the Phillies, chump change for a free agent starter. He stands to earn more as a starter: a $150,000 performance bonus for 170 and 180 innings; $200,000 for 190, 200, 210 and 220 innings. If he pitches in relief, he receives $25,000 for 45, 50, 55 and 60 games and $50,000 for 65, 70 and 75 games.

Franklin was expected to round out the starting rotation unabated, but Gavin Floyd’s unexpected spring has changed that. Floyd is now a serious contender, and could push either Franklin or Ryan Madson into the bullpen.

It’s a shocking turn of events. For most of the winter, the Phillies have been talking up Madson’s long-delayed move to the starting rotation. It’s one of the stated reasons they traded for setup man Arthur Rhodes.

Now, is appears the Phillies have serious concerns with their bullpen after all. Their strategy had been to throw as much garbage on the wall to see what sticks, and none of it stuck.

Ricardo Rodriguez, acquired in the deal for Vicente Padilla, has not impressed. Robinson Tejeda and Eude Brito, expected to compete for spots in either the rotation or bullpen, missed most of camp because of the World Baseball Classic. Non-roster invitee Aquilino Lopez was traded yesterday for two low-level prospects. And Rule-5 pick Chris Booker has been hurt for most of the spring and will begin the season on the DL.

The rest of the veterans have pitched well, but officials and officials close to the team, like Dallas Green, are not confident they can hold the line.

The Phillies have not ruled out moving Madson back into the bullpen. Madson lowered his spring ERA to 1.84 yesterday by throwing six shutout innings against the Yankees.

He’s one of a handful of players that have been magnificent this spring. Floyd is 4-0 and leading the Grapefruit League in wins. The organization has always stood by Floyd when scouts around the league would not. Assistant GM Mike Arbuckle has led that charge to be patient and not overreact.

Franklin has also been solid. In 17 2-3 innings, he’s 2-1 with a 3.57 ERA. Like Madson, he has experience in the bullpen and would appear to be a good option for long relief, the only spot in the bullpen that is truly open.

Offensively, there are two or three candidates for the final bench spot, depending who you listen to. On XM radio yesterday, Gillick said Roberson will begin the season in Triple-A. Other reports say Roberson is still in the mix, along with Chris Coste and Tomas Perez, who cleared waivers two days ago.

Indeed, it's beginning to look like the Phillies will field a 33-year-old rookie.

Beerleaguer take
I'm one to believe spring training matters a whole lot, and we're seeing why right now. The choices the Phillies are about to make are pretty big compared to other years.

The team should take the best players north. That means Coste, and that means Floyd. That does not mean Perez, and it does not mean Rodriguez.

A word on Floyd and one of the comments taken from the post below: "Floyd has been hyped for a couple of seasons now and flopped miserably when he was given his opportunity."

This is an exaggeration. The hype comes from being a first-round draft pick, fourth overall.

As for his opportunity, in his first start last season, he was excellent. In his next two starts, abysmal. Then, in order to make room when Vicente Padilla to come off the DL, Manuel turned Floyd into a reliever for the first time in his career. Even though everyone said Floyd can only work as a starter, he did it anyway. He was beyond terrible. Another failed bullpen outing later, they sent him to Triple-A a broken pitcher.

He never recovered. I don’t know the pitching coach at Scranton, but obviously the situation didn't resolve itself there. Coaches, and Floyd himself, pointed toward confidence issues.

Now, nearly a year later, it's beginning to look like the 23-year-old is pitching with confidence, recapturing his top prospect form. And just when he's on a roll, there is a chance he could be sent back to Triple-A with the dregs. I guarantee he would not pitch well there.

Keep this good thing going and insert that talent into the starting rotation. He will benefit more by sitting next to Jon Lieber on the bench than pitching to the retreads of Triple-A. To make room, push Franklin into the long-relief role, where his flyball tendencies will not hurt them.

Lopez traded
File the Aquilino Lopez trade under the category of "Coaches know more than fans."

How else can you explain a pitcher getting dumped by Colorado and traded from a team with thin bullpen arms in the same year, when on the surface, his record doesn't look all that bad? The 31-year-old right-hander was traded yesterday for two prospects a day after he was reassigned Triple-A.

Pitchers with similar histories have been released from camps all week. The only difference here is the Phillies managed to pick up some low-level prospects. Perhaps one of them will pan out.

Floyd making a case for spot in rotation

Another strong strart by Gavin Floyd yesterday may cause the Phillies to rethink their starting rotation plans.

After an abysmal season, Floyd appears to have turned a corner, pitching as well, or better, than any pitcher this spring. The 23-year-old right-hander went six innings yesterday, allowing just one earned run on a solo home run, three hits and no walks.

The bottom of the rotation appeared to be set, but with questions regarding middle relief, the Phillies may want to consider moving Ryan Madson back into the bullpen, or convert Ryan Franklin into their long reliever. All three have pitched well, and would appear to be a better solution than bringing Ricardo Rodriguez north "just because."

The Phillies said they want to bring the best 12 pitchers north, and at this stage, Floyd would certainly qualify. After a team-high 21 1-3 innings, Floyd is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA

Perez reportedly clears waivers
The Philadelphia Daily News has reported that a league source said infielder Tomas Perez cleared waivers. This would mean the Phillies could assign him to the minors, but more likely, Perez would ask for a release.

Five Questions: Philadelphia Phillies

Consider this the official Beerleaguer season preview. Points of interest: Howard will be superb; J-Roll is critical to the offense; Flash is too old; Charlie won't be fired; and the starting rotation isn't bad.

How does it add up? Find out here, and comment below.

Pair of relievers sent to Triple-A

The Phillies whittled down their bullpen today by optioning Yoel Hernandez and reassigning Aquilino Lopez to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.

Hernandez and Lopez, both right-handers, were considered to have outside shots at making the opening day roster, but had inconsistent springs and melted down in recent outings.

In eight innings, Hernandez allowed six earned runs and seven walks in posting a 6.75 spring ERA. Lopez, owner of 14 career saves, pitched 9 1-3 innings, allowing five earned runs and three walks for a 5.79 ERA. He also fanned 11 batters.

Chris Booker, Robinson Tejeda, Eude Brito and Ricardo Rodriguez remain in the hunt for the final bullpen position. Rodriguez is believed to have the inside track.

In addition, Cole Hamels was officially reassigned to minor league camp.

Beerleaguer take: Middle relief is a frightening situation.

Barthelemy, Inglin head list of minor league cuts

Catcher Trent Pratt and pitcher Aaron Myette are also cut as the Phillies released 20 minor leaguers yesterday.

First baseman Ryan Barthelemy spent last season in Reading after a breakout season in Clearwater in '04, where he led the Florida State League in hits (140), and lead the team in doubles (27), home runs (14) and RBIs (77). With Reading, the 26-year-old hit .237 with a .693 OPS.

Jeff Inglin was making his second go with the Phillies after spending time last season with Bowie (Double-A Baltimore). His career year was in 2003 with Reading when he led the Eastern League in home runs (24). With Bowie last season, the 30-year-old career minor leaguer hit .195 with 2 home runs in 149 ABs.

For the rest of the list, check out Mike Drago's blog here.

Beer nuts: Who's pimping who?

Ryan Howard and Josh Beckett got the juices flowing in Clearwater.

In the eyes of Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett, Ryan Howard appeared to drop his bat and 'pimp it' after he took his pitch deep to center field in the sixth inning yesterday. It would have been his 11th homer of spring training, except the wind knocked it down and Adam Stern made an easy catch.

As Howard jogged past the mound back toward the Phillies' dugout, Beckett let Howard have it.

I didn’t catch the spat, but Tom Goodman of Swing and a Miss did. Here’s what Goodman saw:

"Well, at the time I was quite annoyed. Beckett is apparently disliked intensely by friend and foe alike. The replay clearly showed (this is no interpretation) that Howard was NOT styling. And if you read Jason Stark on ESPN this AM he says Beckett was sorry it happened. But the whole thing was preceded by an incident just before the Howard shot when Beckett walked around the mound annoyed and then buzzed J-Roll twice after Jimmy stepped out on him. Then, the play at the plate (good ole Dancy) saw Beckett get fired up again, pumping his fist like he just won the Series."

I've personally never cared for Beckett. He’s right around the age of Brett Myers, but has accomplished more and is better. His six career wins against the Phils is the most against any team. He's one of those guys who will always be one step ahead of the Phillies, and this latest incident only puts him ahead even more.

Back to the Phillies, I find it hard envisioning how this laid-back group would respond to something like this during the regular season. I do not recall a single bench clearing incident season, and almost none involving this core of players.

------ A report on Phillies.com this weekend indicated Charlie Manuel has narrowed the final bullpen candidates to a list that includes Robinson Tejeda, Ricardo Rodriguez, Chris Booker Eude Brito and Yoel Hernandez. The notable omission is of course Aquilino Lopez, who was shelled in his latest outing. I’m putting all my chips on Rodriguez, and expect the Phillies to work something out with Washington in order to keep Booker.

------ The Phillies released 20 minor leaguers yesterday, including pitcher Aaron Myette. As soon as I get the finalized list, I will post it in this space. In the meantime, if you happen upon the information in your Web travels, please post it in the comments.

------ Carlos Pena was released by the Tigers. I mentioned Pena earlier as a possible addition to the Phillies bench. The 27-year-old left-handed hitter hit 18 homers in 260 at bats last season.

------ Catching up on some older news, Cole Hamels will begin the season pitching for Single-A Clearwater. He was originally scheduled to come north to Double-A Reading. The team’s top-ranked prospect, according to Baseball America, is shamefully one of only two Phillies to make the magazine’s list of top 100 prospects. Hamels ranks 68, and left-hander Gio Gonzalez ranks 73.

Ex-Phil report: Duckworth takes aim at Bucs rotation

Former Phillie Brandon Duckworth could win the final spot in the Pirates starting rotation.

The 30-year-old right-hander, who is in camp as a non-roster invitee, is battling for the last spot with right-hander Victor Santos. According to the Pirates Web site, Bucs manager Jim Tracy said he wasn't leaning one way or the other in deciding the rotation's final pitcher, but that the decision will be made soon. Tracy announced on Tuesday that right-hander Ryan Vogelsong, a Kutztown University product, was out of contention, leaving Duckworth and Santos vieing for the last opening.

Oliver Perez will be the opening day starter today, followed by Zack Duke, Ian Snell and Pat Maholm.

In five seasons with the Phillies and Houston Astros, Duckworth is 16-21 with a 5.34 ERA. He was part of the trade that brought Billy Wagner to Philadelphia.

Here’s the rest of the action among former Phillies non-roster invitees:

Washington Nationals: Reassigned LHP Mike Bacsik and LHP Jim Crowell to minor league camp. Bacsik is the pitcher Aaron Fultz beat out last spring to earn the situational left-hander role in the Phillies bullpen. Crowell pitched three innings for the Phillies in 2004.

San Diego Padres: Reassigned LHP Erick Burke to Minor League camp. Burke split time between Reading and Scranton last season.

Cincinnati Reds: Optioned RHP Elizardo Ramirez Minor League camp. Ramirez was traded to the Reds in the Cory Lidle deal.

Boston Red Sox
Reassigned RHP Franklin Nunez to Minor League camp. Nunez was in the Phillies farm system until 2002.

Baltimore Orioles
Released RHP Ricky Bottalico. Bottalico was the Phillies lone All-Star representative in 1996.

Detroit Tigers
Assigned Reggie Taylor to Minor League camp. Taylor was the Phillies first-round draft pick in the 1995 amateur draft.

Chase Utley primer: Good 2B the best

Join in the cheesy fun as Beerleaguer gushes over the best second baseman in baseball.

In the next few days, you will read my full season preview in the form of five questions, which took the better part of three days to complete.

Later on, I’ll revisit my Top 25 Phillies with an all-new condensed list, one that won’t include Matt Kata and Shawn Garrett.

One player I didn’t have much opportunity to discuss was Chase Utley, the player Beerleaguer named Phillies MVP for the 2005 season.

The reason why is I’m satisfied our second baseman proved his star status beyond any doubt. His game-winning grand slam against San Francisco in the second game of "The Homestand" was a heavy moment, perhaps the heaviest of the season. At that moment, Chase had arrived, and the future of the entire organization looked that much brighter.

When the Phils needed a hit, Utley delivered. He ranked near the top of every offensive category among second basemen, first in baseball in OPS.

	Name	Team	G		AB		R		H		2B		3B		HR		RBI		BB		K		SB		CS		AVG		OBP		SLG		OPS
	Utley	PHI	147		543		93		158		39		6		28		105		69		109		16		3		.291		.376		.540		.915
	Roberts	BAL	143		561		92		176		45		7		18		73		67		83		27		10		.314		.387		.515		.903
	Kent	LAD	149		553		100		160		36		0		29		105		72		85		6		2		.289		.377		.512		.889
	López	CIN	148		580		97		169		34		5		23		85		57		111		15		7		.291		.352		.486		.838
	Giles	ATL	152		577		104		168		45		4		15		63		64		108		16		3		.291		.365		.461		.826

2006 has the feel of a sophomore season for Utley, the way it is for Ryan Howard and Charlie Manuel. While players like Jimmy Rollins are building on history, you get the feeling a player like Chase is taking another step toward destiny, which feels like a championship, or even World Series MVP.

By the end of his career, I’m convinced Utley will be remembered for two things: Snapshot moments, like his slam against San Fran, and great hitting. Power will rank third. Pitchers will not serve up as many pitches low and inside to Utley's zone. In the words of Chris Wheeler, he is a "dead-red lowball fastball hitter." Utley will adjust by working more balls the other way for hits. He has the potential to be a top five hitter.

The Phillies are also counting on him to be a leader, one who leads by example on the field, and one who sets clubhouse policy behind the scenes.

Defensively, he’s smart enough and athletic enough to make it a strength. Arm strength, turning the double play and getting over anxious have been the big knocks. He has improved this area significantly.

So let this serve as an addendum to my season preview, a reminder just how blessed we are to have Chase. No team in baseball has it this good at second base.

Phillies split up Andersen and Wheeler

The Philadelphia Inquirer is reporting the Phillies have finalized their broadcast pairs for the 2006 season.

Harry Kalas and Larry Andersen will call the shots on television for the first three. Scott Graham and Chris Wheeler take over from there. Then Kalas and Wheeler bring it home for the final three.

Beerleaguer take
It all adds up to a big jumble that won’t make the viewing experience any better. Phillies broadcasts need sweeping change, not reshuffling. They’re stale, and the personalities are too phony.

The best news here is we won’t have to suffer through the L.A. and Wheels combo anymore, on radio or television. They carried on the most transparent non-relationship, even worse than Harry and Wheels. Their banter made me cringe.

I’m satisfied with straight baseball, without artificial camaraderie, but I’m not a typical fan. In this day, you need to inject some level of personality. They also need to beef up the appeal for today’s advanced fan. When David Bell is hitting, we need more than a batting average up there. Most importantly, the broadcasters can't be afraid to be critical and honest. Their analysis is far too calculated and disingenuous. This has them far behind the latest trends, where ESPN, Comcast and even local news outlets like NBC-10 have entire shows based on no-holds-barred opinion. I'm not saying they need to become the next 610, but taking a page from ESPN or Fox wouldn't hurt.

Then there’s Harry. I feel like I’m stomping on sacred ground by saying this, but I’ll say it anyway. I no longer look forward to the seventh inning the way I did three years ago.

Bow down: Only Team Japan is hotter than the Phils

Your Phightin' Phils are on a roll, winning both split squad games easily this afternoon.

The Phillies offense is hot, hot hot, and pitching has been a huge plus. Overall, there have been no major meltdowns.

Gavin Floyd had another solid outing this afternoon, as did Cory Lidle. Both pitchers blanked the opposition over five innings. There hasn’t been a better pitcher this spring than Arthur Rhodes. I recall reading he commonly starts hot. He’s tossing up a 1.50 ERA so far. Next best has been Geoff Geary, who deserves credit for making the Phillies pay attention. Geary is here to stay. Even Ricardo Rodriguez got into the act today, working a shutout inning against the Tigers. Maybe the Tigers will entertain a Rodriguez for Carlos Pena swap. Pena, a left-handed slugger rumored to be on the block, homered in the game today.

Here’s how the rest of the division stacks up:

1. Philadelphia 14-6 (.700)
2. Florida 12-6 (.667)
3. NY Mets 11-9 (.550)
4. Atlanta 7-13 (.350)
5. Washington 5-16 (.238)

No matter how you value spring training, I’m convinced it’s better to head north with a record like the Phillies than the Nationals.

Take five: Five Phillies worth trading

Outfielder Chris Roberson, pictured below, is just one player the Phillies should not be afraid to move.

1. Ricardo Rodriguez
The fruits of a deal that was considered "addition by subtraction," the Phillies subtracted a 3.95 career ERA in the form of Vicente Padilla and added a 5.18 career ERA in Ricardo Rodriguez. His only chance of making the team is in relief, where he hasn’t pitched and doesn’t want to pitch. The Phillies could avoid the company-wide policy if they adhere to some simple advice: don’t use him just because he’s there. Considering the second player named in the player-to-be-named-later Padilla deal was some infielder in the Gulf Coast League no one heard of, Pat Gillick could still salvage a prospect before it’s too late.

2. Rheal Cormier
Talk around camp says the Phillies are shopping their soon-to-be-39-year-old southpaw, who pitched well enough last season to be put on waivers. Detroit could be interested, and Baltimore is also looking for a left-handed reliever. Left-handers Arthur Rhodes and Aaron Fultz will see most action in key spots. Cormier will only see mop-up duty with this team. He's no longer worth it, even if the Phillies must eat some of his guaranteed salary.

3. Chris Roberson
Good spring, good winter, good season, good raw talent, with no chance at ever becoming a regular for the Phillies. He’s blocked by Aaron Rowand, Shane Victorino and probably Michael Bourn, a younger prospect that can flat defend. Package him with someone else on this list and get a pitching prospect.

4. Tomas Perez
A good week in spring training could entice Florida to pull the trigger and reunite Tomas Perez with fellow Venezuelan Miguel Cabrera. The team could use a dependable veteran to mentor Cabrera and solidify a team that is mostly rookies. Perez would be great insurance for the Fish, and the Phillies landed two utility infielders in the offseason in Abraham Nunez and Alex Gonzalez. Still nervous? How about Danny Sandoval on reserve? He only hit .331 last season with Triple-A Scranton. Name one other team sitting on something like that.

5. Robinson Tejeda
A player I’d hate to lose. He has ice water in his veins. I like him. But it’s a risk the team should be willing to take if they can get something they truly need in return. Tejeda walks hitters at a fantastic rate and he’s a flyball pitcher. If Tejeda were actually in the running for a starting job, the Phillies wouldn’t have allowed him to play in the World Baseball Classic. They also wouldn’t have signed a struggling pitcher with a 5.10 ERA. Definitely worth more as a backup option in Scranton to begin the season, but if all goes well with Franklin, Madson, Floyd and the bullpen committee, shop him.

Eight invitees reassigned to minor league camp

Fun with roster cuts: OF Peter Bergeron, RHP Clay Condrey, OF/1B Shawn Garrett, RHP Travis Minix, RHP Ryan Cameron, RHP Brian Sanches, INF Bobby Scales and INF Joe Thurston, all non-roster invitees, were assigned to minor league camp before today’s game.

Beerleaguer take
Shawn Garrett and Joe Thurston were the only players from this list that were given much of an opportunity to become that 25th man off the bench. Switch-hitting outfielder/first baseman Garrett met the profile most for what the Phillies were looking for, but that was all.

Pitchers Travis Minix and Brian Sanches, who both pitched well last season in relief for Triple-A Scranton, will give it another go in 2006. I like Minix's numbers and hope he can keep up the strong work.

What this roster cut means is the internal race for the 25th spot is between Chris Coste, Chris Roberson and Tomas Perez. It has been reported the Phillies are scouting other options outside the organization, including oufielder Dustan Mohr with Boston and outfielder Damon Hollins with Tampa Bay. Both are right-handed hitters.

As for the bullpen, Tom Gordon, Arthur Rhodes, Aaron Fultz, Rheal Cormier and Julio Santana are considered locks. Geoff Geary pitched two innings of shutout relief again today, lowering his spring ERA to 1.80. He’s close to being a lock.

The final spot will likely be reserved for a long reliever, which could go to Ricardo Rodriguez or Robinson Tejeda, as reported today in Todd Zolecki's Philadelphia Inquirer podcast.

Beer Nuts: Rodriguez closer to sealing his fate

The Pirates helped themselves to three runs, three hits, two walks and two wild pitches in Ricardo Rodriguez’s abysmal inning of relief, and went on to beat the Phillies 9-8 yesterday in Clearwater.

This was the third televised game of spring, so I observed from my couch. Rodriguez was awful. He had no command whatsoever. Several hitters had to bail out just to avoid getting drilled in the dome.

The Phillies must figure out what to do with the 27-year-old right-hander because he’s out of options. Clearly, he didn’t have command in relief yesterday, and he’s hasn't done enough to earn a job in the rotation. It’s beginning to look like his season could be spent with some other organization.

---- Though he allowed four hits, two runs and two walks, Ryan Madson got it together and put in a strong start, buckling knees with his curve and striking out six. There’s no doubt Madson (2.84 ERA) has earned a spot in the rotation, through Jim Salisbury reports that Tom Gordon's health could still factor into the decision, giving Rodriguez a glimmer of hope. 

----- I was most impressed with right-handers Yoel Hernandez and Aquilino Lopez, who pitched the eighth and ninth. Hernandez (3.00 ERA) was in total command and sat the Bucs down in order. Then Lopez (3.86 ERA) mowed down the first two batters easily, gave up a double, but didn’t let it rattle him. He got ahead of the next batter and forced him to pop up weakly. A good word for Hernandez would be "poised". A good word for Lopez would be "filthy". I don’t know if there’s a better slider on the staff.

----- One guy that didn’t impress me was Shawn Garrett, who’s fighting for that last spot on the Phillies bench. Garrett went 0-5 with three strikeouts, seemingly on pitches that were right down broadway.

------ On the other hand, Chris Coste continued to show why he deserves that final spot. Coste came off the bench and nailed two homers. The feel good story of spring already has the feel of a sad ending. The roster is already stacked with right-handed bench players and they need a fifth outfielder. They say his best position is catcher, which makes one wonder how crazy it would be to let Coste stick as the backup catcher, and assign Sal Fasano to Scranton to work with Gavin Floyd and the other prospects. It’s a 1-in-100 chance, since the Phillies probably wouldn’t do it, and Fasano would need to clear waivers.

------ It’s good to see Bobby Abreu again, if only to be reminded of what a pro looks like at the plate. He had three hits yesterday, poking the ball to whatever spot on the field he wanted.

------ It's time for the Phils to say goodbye to Tomas Perez. Though he doubled yesterday, it was all nonsense, as former teammate Roberto Hernandez took to the hill and was basically throwing and not pitching. In his other at bats, Perez was swinging at balls a foot off the plate. Pie Man was a nice player for the Phillies and could do a lot of things, but it's time for the team to continue the offseason trend of moving forward. There are simply too many good young players that could help the team more.

------ And finally, the Inquirer reported today that David Bell has once again been sidelined with back spasms and could miss the season opener. I started prepping for an Alex Gonzalez and Abraham Nunez platoon months ago, and there’s no reason to stop now. 

Phillies improve to 11-4, lead Grapefruit League

Ryan Franklin throws five innings of one-run ball, and Sal Fasano hit his second home run of spring training as the Phils topped the D-Rays 5-2 this afternoon.

Arthur Rhodes, Julio Santana and Geoff Geary continued to impress in relief. The Phillies improved to a Grapefruit League best 11-4. If memory serves, the last time the Phils had a spring this good was 1993.

Philadelphia IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Franklin (W, 2-1) 5.0 3 1 1 1 4 1 3.55 Rhodes 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2.25 Cormier 1.0 3 1 1 0 1 0 4.91 Santana (H, 3) 1.0 1 0 0 0 2 0 2.35 Geary (S, 2) 1.0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2.25

Early U.S. exit in best interest of baseball

The United States loss to Mexico clears the way for teams that will generate more global buzz. It's also well-timed as March Madness sweeps the nation the same night.

Major League Baseball probably gathered advertising commitments to the WBC months ago, so the best MLB could hope for was interest at the gates and a cross-continental showdown to captivate the international market.

San Diego, site of the final rounds, has one of the fastest-growing Asian populations in the country. They are treated with a Korea-Japan semi-final, and a final round that will feature at least one of those teams. The other game is between Cuba and the Dominican Republic. Though most of the city's Latino population is Mexican, Latinos still account for over 27 percent of the city's population.

Think about this: A final featuring the U.S., playing in front of their mostly-indifferent constituents, would probably draw less, sell less merchandise and generate less global buzz than these final rounds will generate. With at least one Asian team guaranteed a spot in the final, facing one team from baseball-crazed Latin America, either the Dominican Republic or Cuba, the fastest-growing international markets for baseball are being represented.

Saturday Schedule: Cuba vs. Dominican Republic, 3 p.m. ET, Korea vs. Japan, 10 p.m. ET

Phillies will sit on Ruiz, Kroeger

The Phillies optioned OF Josh Kroeger and C Carlos Ruiz to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

This is significant because the Phillies are starting to trim away players that had outside shots at making the club. Kroeger, still a young 23, will continue his development in Scranton.

Talk to me a month and a half ago, when I was watching Ruiz catch in the Dominican, and I would have said Chooch should be the Phillies backup catcher, not Sal Fasano. Team officials said he had an opportunity to step into the backup spot, even though the club signed Fasano to a major league contract in November.

Instead, Ruiz arrived four-days late for pitchers and catchers and left a few days later to participate in the World Baseball Classic, which probably hurt his chances even more. Optioning him down at this stage was not a surprise. He was never in the mix.

Meanwhile, Fasano was one of the earliest arrivals and has been endearing the club with grizzled catcher speak ever since. "Throw the ball through me."

The Phillies may like Fasano because of his good moral fiber and goofy demeanor, but the fact that the Phillies continue to roll out veteran catchers who can’t play while sitting on young talent still bothers me tremendously.

Thus, No. 22 on my list of the most important Phillies has come to fruition: Sal Fasano.

Middle relief candidates effective in 7-1 win

The big story tonight is Gavin Floyd's encouraging performance, but we don't write big stories here. We write stories based entirely on box scores.

Looking for someone to step up in middle relief, the bullpen combination of Yoel Hernandez, Aaron Fultz, Aquilino Lopez and Brian Sanches worked scoreless innings (two by Lopez) and allowed just four hits, holding the Blue Jays in check 7-1. Floyd pitched a sharp game as well: 4 IP, 5 SO, 1 ER.

Beerleaguer take
A word on Aquilino Lopez, because I know he has fans out there. Aqualung is one of few fringe pitchers Baseball Prospectus is keeping tabs on. They feel the soon-to-be 31-year-old right-hander still has good upside. They compare him to Bedrock Steve Bedrosian and Shingetoshi Hasagawa. They cite problems with control and some inconsistency, but give him points for experience and a plus slider. He can notch strikeouts. He is third on the team in career saves.

Interesting to note he got a good, long look tonight. It's so hard to say how coaches really feel about pitchers in spring. They work a lot off camera and in non-game situations. This long outing should be encouraging news for Aquilino fans. As the kids are saying, cue the Jethro.

Another guy they like a little is Yoel Hernandez, who we've talked about since November and pitched lights out in winter ball. Brian Sanches, who pitched the ninth tonight, hasn't allowed a run this spring.

Light the hot stove: Phils need spare parts

Pat Gillick hinted to the Philadelphia Inquirer today there’s still work to be done in assembling a winning team, and could be shopping around for help.

The Phils are still looking for a beefy left-handed bat off the bench. According to the Detroit News, the Tigers could release first baseman Carlos Pena as early as today or try to trade the left-handed slugger before the end of spring training.

This is the final day players under contract for 2006 can be jettisoned for one-sixth of the salary owed them -- in Pena's case about $470,000 of the $2.8 million he has coming for 2006, the paper reported. Chris Shelton is the starter at first and Dmitri Young also plays the position, so Pena is viewed as a player that no longer fits.

The Phillies would rather have a power-hitting outfielder from the left side, but have several options in that regard to break camp, including Chris Roberson, who is swinging a hot bat, and Shawn Garrett, both switch hitters.

Beerleaguer take
Pena, a former first-round pick of the Rangers, would make sense as insurance at first, but would primarily serve as dynamite pop off the bench. In 260 at bats last season, the 27-year-old hit 18 homers with a line of .235/.325/.477. He’s a much better hitter against right-handers.

Another key benefit is he holds a lot of value in a trade in case another team’s first baseman goes down with injury. They would have no problem selling high to a desperate team.

It’s worth keeping an eye on the situation. Often times, teams that face each other in spring training get together on deals, such as the Reds quickly snatching Matt Kata off waivers (though that wasn't technically a deal). Joker Marchant Stadium (Tigers) is less than an hour from Clearwater. Gillick also seems to have the ear of American League teams.

As for relief pitching, it’s going to be much harder to find good arms than spare outfielders or displaced position players. I'd rather solve the pitching problem from within rather than deal for scraps at this point.

E-Mailbag: Scratchin' and surviving in Clearwater

Help this poor college student avoid starvation as he prioritizes baseball before sustenance.

Hi. I'm a frequent reader of your Beerleaguer blog and had a quick question for you. I'm a college student driving down to Florida to watch some Phillies games for spring break. Do you have any suggestions for very inexpensive places to eat around Clearwater? My current budget has me camping at a state park for 4 dollars a night. I'm trying to avoid spending too much on food. Any ideas you could add would be greatly appreciated. Thanks a lot.

Kata waived by Phillies, claimed by Reds

Utility infielder Matt Kata was released by the Phillies today.

Kata was in the running for a bench spot and seemed to be a favorite to make the team when you listed to Pat Gillick. His release should open the door a little wider for bench candidates Chris Roberson, Shawn Garrett, Josh Kroeger, Chris Coste and Danny Sandoval, and give a second life to veteran Tomas Perez, who had been rumored in trade talks. Along with Perez, the Phillies maintain Alex Gonzalez and Abraham Nunez as their top infielders off the bench.

The 27-year-old went 4-for-21 (.190) with the Phillies this spring.

The Phillies acquired Kata last season in a deal that sent Tim Worrell to Arizona, joining a long list of Ed Wade trades that yielded absolutely nothing.

Back when the deal was made, Wade said "We think Matt can contribute to the big league club. He's a versatile player and brings a lot of skills. Tim did an outstanding job for us a year ago and had some struggles this year. He expressed an interest in pitching closer to home, and we tried to see if there was a deal out there that could accommodate both him and the club."

When will a deal finally "accommodate" the Phillies for once, dammit?

Middle relief review: The middle of nowhere

Why the Phillies will make all the wrong decisions with middle relief.

You’ve probably noticed my top 25 countdown has stalled out around the point where I should start dropping in middle relievers.

The reason why is there’s no formula to predict middle relief, and I don't believe even the smartest men in baseball understand it either. Few teams make a point to develop the position. But one thing is clear: Many middle relievers develop late, and many of them emerge from nowhere.

Middle relief is undoubtedly the biggest question mark the Phillies face, and I’m nervous to see how they handle it. Because if it were up to me, I’d keep only the best, and that might include a few rookies. I would not allow veterans, even players who were signed as free agents or acquired in trades, like Santana or Rodriguez, to stand in the way of any pitcher I believed could help the team more.

One candidate is Travis Minix. You’ve probably seen the name in the spring box scores but know little about him. Let me start by saying this. Minix would be high on my list of the top prospects in the Phillies system.

Most top prospects lists don’t like older players, but that’s the story of relief pitching. They’re older players. When some of the most lucrative deals this winter went to older relievers, bullpen prospects should not be ignored. Age is the nature of the beast.

Minix might be their best. The right-hander signed as a minor league free agent last year and split time between Reading and Scranton. The 28-year-old castoff from the Tampa Bay organization only put together the best pound-for-pound season of any pitcher in the Phillies minor league system. His ERA has been under 1.75 twice, including last season when he posted a 1.70 ERA in 76 innings, with 68 strikeouts and only 18 walks.

I don’t care how old you are, or what level you’re pitching. If you put up numbers like these, you deserve a pat on the back.

Here’s what I like most about Minix: He’s always been solid. Over his career, he fans 8.3 batters per game on average and surrenders only 0.65 homers per game. Last season, he only allowed about 5.5 hits per game.

These are numbers custom built for Citizen’s Bank Park. These are numbers that deserve heavy consideration for a bullpen spot.

If you have a middle reliever who gives you a 1.70 ERA over an entire season, then impresses you in spring training, it shouldn’t matter what age he is, or how you acquired him, or his pedigree. You get excited, the way you get excited about a position player or starting pitcher who puts up comparable production.

It would be a mistake for the Phillies to underestimate this pitcher, which is precisely what they're doing. So far, Minix has seen 2.1 innings of spring action, well below the other contenders.

Veterans
Of the veterans, I think Geoff Geary has figured it out. He's at an age, and pitched well enough last season to indicate he's over the hump. As for Aaron Fultz, same thing, but 2005 was likely his career year. Rheal Cormier is a candidate to improve, but age makes it difficult to say.

Middle relief is their weakness
If you've been listing to Todd Zolecki's informative podcasts from Clearwater, he mentioned something Monday that echoes my feelings on the matter. He was asked to sum up spring training thus far, in one word, and instead, went on to list his concerns about the bullpen, namely middle relief.

The bullpen does indeed look very poor when you go down the list. And you wonder whether Arthur Rhodes and Tom Gordon will hold up at the back.

Zolecki also said the rotation will hold its own, going so far as to say the starting five was upgraded with Ryan Madson moving to the rotation and by the offseason addition of Ryan Franklin. 

Earlier this winter, when Bobby Abreu's name was tossed around in trade rumors, I said I would support a deal that would land a No. 3-4 starter and quality reliever. I fear that by midseason, the Phillies will wish they would have pursued something like this.

Bottom line
It’s time for the Phillies to break away from the Ed Wade school of relief pitching. Let’s get serious about it. Let’s develop our own solutions from within and not turn a blind eye toward players who can help you.

Bourn, Haigwood optioned to Triple-A

From the transaction wire: The Phillies optioned OF Michael Bourn and LHP Daniel Haigwood to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre; Optioned RHP Scott Mathieson and RHP Zack Segovia to Double-A Reading; Reassigned C John Vanden Berg, C Jason Jaramillo, LHP Gio Gonzalez, LHP Matt White, RHP Aaron Myette, RHP Jeremy Cummings to the Minor League Camp.

Beerleaguer take: No surprises from this list, with assignments right in line with what was initially reported at the Winter Tour in Reading.

In progress: Ryan Howard has hit his eighth home run of spring training. The Phillies are leading this one 7-0 after four. Brett Myers got the start this afternoon and from the looks of it, pitched well. Aaron Rowand said "platoon this" and nailed his second round-tripper of spring.

Phillies must figure out where Rodriguez fits

27-year-old starter Ricardo Rodriguez is out of options and cannot be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. His spot in the starting rotation is likely blocked by Ryan Madson and Ryan Franklin, and he does not have bullpen experience.

Manager Charlie Manuel has struggled to get him adequate opportunity on the mound while giving enough time to his regulars. Rodriguez got the start yesterday instead of Jon Lieber and allowed only an infield hit through the first three innings, but then in the fourth, allowed two runs on four hits including a homer. So far this spring, he has a 3.38 ERA in 8 innings with 3 strikeouts and 2 walks.

In order to send him to Triple-A, he would need to clear waivers. There are several teams, including pitching-poor Kansas City, that may take a crack at him, leaving the Phillies with nothing to show for the deal the sent Vicente Padilla to Texas. Now would be a good time to trade the right-hander to a team that is getting nervous about starting pitching, but the chances of a team getting him simply by waiting on his release seems equally possible.

Again, Kansas City is a good target. Their potential starting five has not pitched well this spring, including Scott Elarton (7.71 ERA), Denny Bautista (5.63 ERA), Runelvys Hernandez (5.40 ERA), Joe Mays (9.62 ERA) and Jeremy Affeldt (5.63 ERA). In addition, Mark Redman, who figured to be the team’s third starter, underwent underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee last week with no immediate word on his return.

Rodriguez been in the American League his entire big-league career, breaking in with Cleveland in 2002. According to a report this morning on the Phillies Web site, a number of scouts watched Rodriguez's outing yesterday, but their employers were not mentioned.

Another option is for the Phillies to begin the season with Rodriguez in their bullpen and go with a roster that includes 12 pitchers. This way they can see whether Rodriguez can help them in the bullpen, and perhaps bolster his value in a trade. With this scenario, expect Robinson Tejeda to begin the season in Triple-A.

Beerleaguer take
At the very worst, the deal that sent Vicente Padilla to Texas has the potential to turn into a real blunder for Pat Gillick if Rodriguez bombs and is put on waivers. Even though salary and a headache was cut, there is no excuse not to get a warm body back in return for a pitcher of Padilla’s caliber, even if it's at the minor league level.

At the very best, Rodriguez could stay healthy, harness his command and really help the starting rotation.

Rodriguez, Franklin and Robinson Tejeda, still working the bullpen for the Dominicans in the WBC, represent the biggest spring quandary for Manuel and company - at least in my mind.

Fifth man update
According to Phillies mailbag, outfielder Shawn Garrett is in the lead for the final spot on the Phillies' bench.

Franklin paints the black in Saturday's win

Saturday's televised game between the Phils and Astros showcased a pitcher that is entirely dependent on hitting his spots.

Ryan Franklin should readjust his daily life so that everything he does is slightly to the left or slightly to the right. Anywhere but right down the middle. He should drive with one tire on the median. If he’s a Democrat, his politics should be like Joe Lieberman: slightly right. Or is that slightly center? Nevermind. Bad analogy.

Mechanically sound, and a relatively fast worker, my first impression of Ryan Franklin watching him Saturday is that he’s the kind of pitcher who will constantly make me nervous watching the game. Even in an outing where he pitched 3 2-3 scoreless innings and was hitting his spots, as he did Saturday, you always feel like he’s walking a fine line.

He’s got nothing on his fastball. Nothing. He should only use it to back hitters off the plate. He should never, ever, throw it down the middle.

His two and four-seam fastball reaches the catcher in the high 80s. It has enough action to keep it at the level where hitters will hit it in the air at a higher frequency than most pitchers, not quite the "hover" Ugueth Urbina had, but not ideal for Citizen’s Bank Park. He has no pitches that would induce groundballs. His curve, slider and changeup are rated as average, but will come around more with more time on the hill.

Franklin is getting more work than any pitcher this spring with the exception of Ryan Madson, and for good reason. He needs to be dialed in with his location, or he’ll just take up roster space.

Platoon worth consideration if Rowand goes cold

Aaron Rowand is just 2-20 with his new team this spring with a high number of strikeouts. If he continues to struggle, it wouldn’t be a bad play to ease him into full-time duty by giving Victorino more time against right-handed pitching.

Rowand is undoubtedly the center fielder of choice, but the Phillies could do well leaving some of his strikeouts and low on-base percentage on the bench if the team feels he is not seeing the ball correctly. He’s not an ideal No. 2 hitter, which is where he’s been penciled in by Charlie Manuel. The team is losing close to .70 OBP over last season’s duo of Jason Michaels and Kenny Lofton if Rowand produces what he did last season (.329)

On the other hand, last season’s International League MVP could be a very nice switch-hitting No. 2, with good speed and potentially little loss of defense in center field.

If Rowand’s timing is not where it should be, and Victorino looks ready, the Phillies should not sacrifice a spot in the lineup just so Rowand can work it out. I’m ready for the Phillies to explode from the gate, and if Manuel feels something is off with his new center fielder, he should do what it takes to make sure the bottom line is met, and the bottom line is winning.

Hopefully, it’s much ado about nothing and Rowand adjusts by opening day. Odds are, he will, but expect to see a lot more of Victorino at the corners than we did of Jason Michaels. Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell are not spring chickens.

Phillies ink intriguing minor leaguer

The Phillies have signed minor league reliever Evan Fahrner.

Fahrner was 7-2 with a 2.48 ERA for the 2005 Texas League champion Midland RockHounds (A’s Double-A).

However, it’s Fahrner’s 2003 season that stands out most. In two stops, with Schaumberg of the independent Northern League and Daytona (Cubs) of the Class-A Florida State League, he pitched 45 innings, gave up 23 hits, had 64 strikeouts and allowed one earned run. Pretty damn solid.

The 28-year-old right-hander was originally a 23rd round draft pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He will be reunited with Berks County native Nick Mattioni, who was his stablemate with Midland.

Juan Richardson update: Former Phillies slugging third base prospect Juan Richardson signed a minor league deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. The 25-year-old Dominican spent parts of three seasons in Reading and was released last season.

Late night WBC report: Cormier sharp for Canada

The baseball gods woke me at 4 a.m. to watch the second half of Canada vs. South Africa and Puerto Rico vs. Panama. And guess what? I enjoyed it.

In front of 19,043 in San Juan, the home team held off Panama with sharp bullpen work and defense after falling behind 1-0. Kiko Calero and Francisco Cabrera nailed it down for Puerto Rico, helped by a big-time assist by Yadier Molina, who rifled down a base stealer in the ninth to secure the 2-1 win. Molina was a defensive replacement for Pudge Rodriguez. Imagine that!

On the other side, Phillies prospect Carlos Ruiz worked the entire game behind the plate for Panama and went 0-2 with a bases-loaded RBI walk.

Interesting fact on baseball in Puerto Rico: Much like the United States, basketball is becoming the pickup game of choice among Puerto Rican youth. The reason: Puerto Rico’s upset win over the United States in the 2004 World Championships exposed basketball in a new way. It goes to show how much international tournaments like these mean to the Latin American countries. Baseball enthusiasts on the island are hoping the WBC will revive interest in the sport.

Meanwhile in Scottsdale, Ariz., South Africa sent a scare through Canada in a wild one, but ran out of pitching and lost 11-8. The announcers said the game could have turned out differently if pitchers weren't on a pitch count, which has been the big issue with players this tournament, including Ichiro. The starter for South Africa, Carl Michaels, looked good but was pulled after 2 2-3. They finished with two pitchers who got bombed, including a 17-year-old.

Rheal Cormier looked solid for Canada, pitching 1 1-3 innings of shutout relief with 2 strikeouts. Physically, he is sporting a different appearance this year, short hair and a goatee. As I wrote a few weeks ago, he's one of my picks to have a surprise year for the Phillies.

Corey Koskie delivered the big hit for Canada, a two-run blast in the seventh inning, but South Africa eventually came back to tie it. The young arms of South Africa could not hold it down however as Canada broke it open in the eighth. Matt Stairs and Jason Bay also had big hits for Canada.

Howard hits third, Phils top D-Rays 5-4

Ryan Howard continued his hot hitting with his third home run of spring to help the Phils defeat the pesky Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5-4 at Progress Energy Park at Al Lang Field in St. Petersburg, Fla.

From Grapefruit League correspondent Billy Mac: "Howard's homer to left got the Phillies on the board in the in the second inning. Ryan Madson had another strong outing. He started and in three innings gave up just one hit (a double to Damon Hollins), surrendering one run and walking none. Of the 10 batters he faced, only two hit the ball out of the infield. The Phils scored three runs in the seventh with key hits being doubles by Jimmy Rollins and Michael Bourn. Arthur Rhodes pitched a 1-2-3 seventh inning.

"On a side note, I was surprised the Devil Rays did not have a moment of silence today for Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett. I e-mailed Scott Palmer of the Phillies that even though Puckett did not have ties to Philadelphia or the Phillies, he was a beloved player and his passing should be acknowledged by the Phils tomorrow at the game in Clearwater. Let's hope the Phils do the right thing."

Beerleaguer take
Thanks to Billy Mac for his reports and photos from Clearwater this week, and for putting us in a warm weather baseball state of mind.

Knackered and bent

The diminishing skills of age and poor health are bringing David Bell one step closer to the dreaded four-letter word: Done.

One wonders if David Bell’s back has finally cracked under all the weight put on his shoulders.

On Wednesday, the 33-year-old embattled veteran reinjured his back and could miss the start of the regular season. This isn't the first time. He missed the first month of spring training last year, and since signing with the Phillies, he’s missed considerable time with this injury.

If the rest of what I’m about to write sounds like an obituary, don’t worry. It should.

Ed Wade believed he had the right ingredients with Bell when he signed him late in 2002. He was advertised as a man we would surely want in a fight.

The love affair might have happened if the two sides were properly introduced. Just when the team had us buttered up with drippy professionalism, his back gave out just days into the season. He limped through half the season and hit .196. Pleasantries over.

Through no fault of his own, Bell brought all the effervescence of cement. He was set up for failure. He was an older veteran free agent when he signed before 2003, coming off what would turn out to be his best years. He was replacing a star in Scott Rolen. He’s not flashy. He’s on a team that never wins. He doesn’t really have power at a position where you can get it. All the areas he seems to excel are invisible to the average fan: arm strength, accuracy, range, maybe leadership. In the field and at the plate, his shoulders devour his neck. His batting stance can best be described as a cringe. He’s pale. He’s slow. He's 5-10, 175-pound David Bell.

The 2004 season will likely become his best with the Phils, elevated by two solid months at the end of the season, mostly garbage time games. As for 2005, he produced as expected for a pull hitter with a bad back and diminishing bat speed.

If his back hadn’t already been broken, the Phillies strapped him to a rack and pulled tight. They signed not one, but two, free agent third baseman with clean bills of health.

It’s Bell's job to lose, they say.

How could he not?

Unbeaten streak ends: Phillies fall to Reds

With Ryan Howard the only starter to make the bus trip to Sarasota on Sunday, the Phillies lost 5-2 to the Reds, ending the Phillies four-game unbeaten streak.

From Grapefruit League correspondent Billy Mac: "Ryan Franklin (pictured right) took the loss and gave up four hits and two runs with no strikeouts in two innings. Again, I was fortunate to be seated behind a scout and Frankin's fastball was in the 88-89 mph range. Gavin Floyd pitched 2 2-3 innings. He went 1-2-3 in his first inning and lost command in the second inning walking two and surrendering a run. He retired the two batters he faced in his 3rd inning."

Alex Gonzalez delivered a fourth-inning RBI single to score the Phillies’ first run. Sal Fasano, pictured right, led off the fifth with a home run to left field off David Weathers. Fasano is slugging .875 this spring. Shane Victorino went 2-3.

Brian Sanches worked 1 1-3 innings of perfect relief. In 2 2-3 innings this spring, the right-hander has struck out five and walked one and has not allowed a run.

Aaron Fultz was rocked in his second-straight game, allowing two runs in two innings, including a home run.

Phillies remain unbeaten, edge Astros 4-3 in 10th

Shane Victorino’s infield dribbler in the 10th inning scored Peter Bergeron from third as the Phillies came back to beat the Astros 4-3 this afternoon in Clearwater. The Phillies improved to 4-0 in Grapefruit League play. (Photos courtesy of Billy Mac)

Bergeron led off the inning with a walk and was moved along to second by a bunt from Matt Kata. Danny Sandoval’s groundout moved Bergeron to third. Bergeron came in to score when Victorino’s dribbler was bobbled by the third baseman.

Chris Roberson and Shawn Garrett each homered for the Phillies. For Roberson, it was his second of spring training.

Billy Mac, reporting from Clearwater, had this to say: "Two players that impressed me were Chris Roberson and Chris Coste. Chris Roberson with a homer and showing his strong accurate arm with double play in 10th. Chris Coste continued his clutch hitting with a game-tying hit in the 9th."

Beerleaguer take: Bench candidates on display
The Phillies are in good shape this spring to fill out their bench with all-purpose talent. It’s shaping up to be a much different look than what Jose Offerman, Jason Michaels, Tomas Perez, Marlon Byrd and Todd Pratt had to offer last season.

Chris Coste (pictured right), a right-handed hitter who’s only a year younger than David Bell and has never been out of the minor leagues, can play multiple positions, including first, third and emergency catcher. Would Coste be a horrible option at first against a tough left-hander? Hard to say, but his 20 homers last season in Triple-A and hot start here could force Manuel to consider it.

Chris Roberson has good pop in outfield and can provide speed off the bench. At 26, it looks like he’s ready, and had a brilliant winter in Mexico to follow a superb year in Reading.

Matt Kata, a hustling throwback-type switch hitter acquired in the Tim Worrell deal last year, can handle every infield position fairly well and seems to excel at providing the little things on offense. This offseason, GM Pat Gillick called him a darkhorse favorite to make the club, and of the three, is probably the biggest favorite to stick. He's only 4-13 so far, but he's had the kind of ABs and plays in the field that will stick in the manager's mind.

The competition must be intense for about a dozen pitchers and position players all with legitimate chances, and so far, that pressure has paid off into a 4-0 start. Even Victorino – an early lock for the fourth outfielder spot – should probably watch his back. And the pressure put on Tomas Perez goes without saying.

With Bell’s future uncertain, there may be room for players like Coste, Kata and Roberson, especially if the Phils open with 11 pitchers. All three are getting a good look here in the early going and making the most of their chances.

Phillies release pitcher Keith Bucktrot

According to a story by the Associated Press, the Phillies have released pitcher Keith Bucktrot.

In five minor league seasons, the 25-year-old right-hander went 31-37 with a 4.50 ERA. At one time, the Phillies had high hopes for the 6-3 power pitcher, who was considered for a short while one of the best pitchers in their farm system. Known for his heavy fastball, he struggled with consistency and injuries. Bucktrot was a third-round pick in the June 2000 draft.

The Phillies also released pitcher Jared Blasdell, who pitched for a short time in Clearwater last season.

Updated Link: Factors that may have led to Bucktrot's release [Drago blog]

Phils blanked by Venezuela; split squad tops Jays

Brett Myers looked sharp against teammate Bobby Abreu and Team Venezuela, but the Phillies can't get the bats going in a 1-0 loss this afternoon at Bright House Networks Field. (Photos courtesy of Billy Mac)

From Billy Mac: "Phils lost 1-0.  Game included the Phils debut of Arthur Rhodes, who looked sharp, giving up no runs and throwing in low nineties (scout in front of me allowed me to see his radar gun). Myers also pitched well facing an all-star team.  With Rowand, Rollins, and Lieberthal, the only starters, the bats were not there today."

Abreu contributed to the first-inning rally with a sharp single to left off Myers. Miguel Cabrera delivered the eventual game-winning hit.

For the Phils, Chris Coste continued his bid to make the 25-man roster, delivering two of the Phillies five hits. After Myers, the bullpen combination of Travis Minix, Rhodes, Zach Segovia, Ryan Cummings and Yoel Hernandez did not allow a run or walk over 6 innings.

No-name squad tops Blue Jays
In Dunedin, the Phillies offense stayed hot as Abraham Nunez, Shane Victorino and Chris Roberson each homered and the Phillies knocked off the Blue Jays 9-7. Ryan Howard, the only starter from last season’s team in the lineup, doubled and went 1-3.

The game featured shaky pitching early from Ricardo Rodriguez and Daniel Haigwood. Clay Condrey pitched three innings of one-run ball to secure the win. Aquilino Lopez struck out three in the ninth to earn the save.

The Phillies improve to 3-0 in Grapefruit League play.

Mighty debut: Howard HRs twice in home opener

In progress: Ryan Howard has apparently recovered from the flu, homering twice this afternoon in Clearwater. His second was a three-run, tape-measure shot to right field off left-hander Ron Villone. Aaron Rowand has also homered in this game, and the Phillies lead the Yankees 7-2 after four innings.

Update: Phillies win this one 11-10. Howard finishes 4-4 with 2 homers and 5 RBIs. Flash Gordon made  his Phillies debut and could not nail down the save, allowing two runs in the ninth that tied the score. Chris Coste continued his hot hitting, driving in the winning run with a single in the bottom of the ninth. The Phillies improve to 2-0 in Grapefruit League play.

Next up: Split squad action! The Phils host Bobby Abreu and Team Venezuela, my favorite to win the WBC, and also send a squad to nearby Dunedin to take on the retooled Blue Jays.

Television: The Phils make their spring television debut Sunday at 1:05 p.m. on UPN against the Astros.

Photo correspondent: Beerleaguer reader and frequent commentor Billy Mac is sending photos from spring training through March 8, including the shots you see here. Pictured right is Flash Gordon making his Phillies debut. Thank you, Billy Mac. We look forward to seeing more from Clearwater. (Click on the images to see them at a larger size).

Tejeda, Brito handle sloppy WBC situation like pros

According to the Philadelphia Daily News, Phillies pitchers Robinson Tejeda and Eude Brito have decided to play in the World Baseball Classic after Dominican coach Stan Javier persuaded them to reconsider their invite to the rapidly thinning roster.

Beerleaguer take
It sounds like Tejeda and Brito have the full backing of the Phillies on this shoddy situation.

Phillies bullpen coach Ramon Henderson will also be making the trip with the Dominican team as a pitching coach and will report back his observations. GM Pat Gillick also told the paper he will keep Tejeda and Brito an extra 9 or 10 days after the classic to observe them pitch.

The bottom line is this: Things have worked out very well for Tejeda and Brito, and their participation in the tournament isn’t a big deal. They run no risk of being overlooked for spots with the Phils, and with Henderson as "chaperone," they won't be overworked.

The second-year pitchers did the right thing by putting their team first, and only agreed to participate when the Dominican coach all but begged for their participation.

Like I wrote yesterday, the WBC may not be interesting for many of us, but playing on a bigger stage against world-class talent is a nice opportunity to showcase their abilities while playing for the pride of their home country.

In addition, Carlos Ruiz is also headed out momentarily to catch for Panama, a team that will face an uphill battle in their bracket against the likes of Cuba and Puerto Rico.

Nick Mattioni out of WBC
The best article I’ve seen on the confusion surrounding the WBC, from a player’s perspective, comes from Mike Drago’s blog yesterday about Phillies minor leaguer Nick Mattioni missing the cut to pitch for Italy.

Mattioni told Drago that during the tryouts for the Italian team, he was holding something back because he didn’t want to risk an injury that will affect his future with the Phils. Mattioni, a Berks County product, is expected to pitch the season in Double or Triple-A.

From Drago’s article: "I'm not trying to get hurt," (Mattioni) said. "My job is with the Phillies. That's the most important thing. I'm getting ready to pitch in games. During the exhibition game, I wasn't trying to get guys out; I was trying to work on location."

Italy manager Matt Gallante obviously saw it another way, and thought Mattioni wasn't trying hard enough.

"I would have loved to be on the team, don’t get me wrong," said Mattioni. "I just don’t know what happened over there (during the tryouts). I’m confused."

Click here to read the rest of Drago’s blog and comment.

Beer nuts: Phillies open Grapefruit League play

An assortment of discussion points ripped from today's headlines.

-- Preseason baseball has arrived! Right-hander Ryan Franklin will get the start this afternoon as the Phillies tussle with the Yankees in their Grapefruit League opener. Franklin is expected to make about 45 pitches then hand the ball over to Ryan Madson.

It’s a good opportunity for the Phils to observe the two pitchers penciled into the fourth and fifth starter spots, with Gavin Floyd, Ricardo Rodriguez and Robinson Tejeda also considered in the mix with outside chances.

Floyd, Julio Santana and Geoff Geary are also scheduled to pitch this afternoon.

Here is today’s lineup according to Phillies.com:
1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2. Shane Victorino, RF
3. Pat Burrell, DH
4. Chase Utley, 2B
5. Aaron Rowand, CF
6. Abraham Nunez, 3B
7. Alex Gonzalez, 1B
8. Mike Lieberthal, C
9. Josh Kroeger, LF

For those following the action, use the comments thread below to post your observations for those of us stuck at our desks in the icy northeast.

-- I’ve picked up a few rumblings here and there that relievers Arthur Rhodes and Julio Santana do not look sharp. Rhodes was rocked in an intersquad game, and Santana showed up out of shape. It would not surprise me if Santana does not make the club, even though he signed as a free agent this offseason. He represents the type of pitcher the Phillies have too many of in the bullpen: older pitchers with good stuff that still need to be developed to a certain extent and have control problems. Rhodes also scares me.

-- Speaking this morning on 610-WIP radio, analyst John Marzano said Franklin looked sharp in workouts, with solid sinking stuff in the 92-93 mph range.

-- One caller to Howard Eskin’s afternoon show yesterday suggested the Phillies convert Shane Victorino to third base. My bigger focus would be making sure Victorino can hit major-league pitching well enough to hold down a fourth outfielder spot, a significant leap for the 24-year-old switch-hitter. But an interesting idea nonetheless. They could use more speed in the everyday lineup.

-- The morning show also interviewed Madson and pitcher Brett Myers, who offered their take on the World Baseball Classic. Like many, they are not the biggest fans of the poorly-timed WBC, believing it’s more important at this stage to prepare for the regular season.

From a baseball perspective, pitching is the biggest concern for teams as they will entrust some of their best arms with foreign coaches. From the Phillies, veteran Rheal Cormier, Scott Mathieson and Aaron Myette will pitch for Canada, while Myers remains a reserve for the American team.

Consider the Phillies one of the fortunate teams.

-- Speaking of the WBC, the Daily News is reporting that Robinson Tejeda and Eude Brito have turned down invitations to pitch for the Dominican Republic, but will remain listed as reserves.

The second-year pitchers decided it would be better to stay in camp and try to earn spots with the Phillies. "I want to represent my country," Tejeda told the Daily News. "But we have a new general manager, and he hasn't seen us pitch before. We want to show him that we can pitch."

Tejeda appears to have a legitimate chance of earning a spot either in the rotation or bullpen, but Brito is a different story. The left-hander is still considered a green 27 and does not appear to have much of an opening anywhere on the 25-man roster.

Playing in the WBC with a chance to shine on a bigger stage could have been a nice opportunity for him. If I were calling the shots, I would not have discouraged his participation in a situation that clearly means more to the Latin American and Asian countries than many of us here in the United States can fathom.

The WBC
Of course, the biggest problem with the WBC is that it's happening way too close to the regular season. Players have been in camp for about two weeks, have already settled into Spring Training mode and understand what they need to do to earn spots. They're comfortable. They're easing in for the long marathon season. The WBC is ripping them away from that situation, and inserting them into a new, exhausting schedule. It takes me weeks to get over just a one week's worth of vacation. Imagine a near three-week journey around the world.

For the participants with the unfortunate task of being on one of the good teams with a chance to go far in the tournament, this will be the longest season of their lives. The perfect time for the WBC would be early-to-mid January, when they hold the Caribbean series.

Or never.

Big bad things predicted for big bad Phillie

Get well soon, Ryan Howard. A leading publication is expecting you to have an MVP-caliber season.

According to Baseball Prospectus, whose 2006 statistical annual was delivered to my doorstep yesterday, reigning National League Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard, recovering from a cold that sent him to the hospital with dehydration, is about to blow the doors off this mother.

Collecting data using PECOTA, a system that compares current players with similar players throughout history and mixes the results with other data, including park factors, Howard is likely to hit 41 home runs, drive in 108 RBIs, and hit .286/.375/.612 next season.

After a quick skim of the 554-page reference, Howard's standout line is the biggest, most realistically-attainable surprise projection in the entire annual, which lists predictions for 1,600 players and prospects. He's pictured on the book's cover along with five others, and his stat readout is used as a pullout example at the beginning of the book to show how PECOTA works and how their data is justified.

The only players in the division that jumped off the page in a positive way more than Howard were the Mets' David Wright, who is younger and carries even more value than Howard, and Miguel Cabrera of Florida, already established as one of the premier hitters in the game. Not even Andruw Jones is expected to jack up the kind of numbers Howard is expected to have.

One data set available on the Baseball Prospectus Web site, available to subscribers a few weeks ago, shows a chance Howard's numbers could climb even higher, including one set that reaches 61 homers. Don't bet on it, however.

Instead, Baseball Prospectus is putting their money on Howard becoming the next Willie Stargell, not Barry Bonds. They're forecasting a career that's comparable to that of Travis Hafner – perhaps the best DH in the American League – Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, Stargell and Carlos Delgado. They represent five of the six top careers Howard is most comparable at this stage. The other, Mike Epstein, hit 130 homers with various teams from 1966 through 1974.

The data is open to interpretation, but PECOTA often hits the nail right on the head with their predictions, including a near dead-on forecast of Jason Kendall’s power collapse in 2005 - and that was one of the easy ones. Experts and GMs, including Rob Neyer, Alan Schwarz, Peter Gammons and former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, swear by the projections issued by BP.

Considering Howard mashed 22 homers in his first season in just 348 plate appearances, reaching 41 isn’t all that unlikely over a season of about 560. It's more of a wake-up call than anything that says the Phillies offense can seriously bash with anyone, knowing in all likelihood Howard will probably bat sixth in the lineup once again.

With this new data, it's realistic to believe Howard can become the team's single most important contributor starting as soon as next season.

At worst, BP says he will become merely a very good mistake hitter, citing poor bat speed as the main reason. Indeed, most of Howard's homers sailed to the opposite field, but his raw power cannot be ignored. PECOTA’s strikeout projection of 147 is also a tad low, but no one, including Howard, knows for sure how many more games he’ll see against left-handed pitching. Expect something closer to a league-leading total closer to 180.

A fast fizzle is also not out of the question, including a comparison to former Yankee Kevin Maas, the 13th-rated comparable player to Howard’s career thus far. And let's not forget those lingering doubts.

For now, consider this news reassurance the Phillies indeed made the right choice in trading Jim Thome and allowing Howard to blossom.

Get well soon, Ryan. Big things are ahead of you.

Links: Pawnking the Blogging Accountant calculates how many more wins the Phillies would achieve with Howard's 2006 projection mixed in with last-year's team.

Also, The Good Phight is holding a community projection for Howard, with numbers so far similar to BP's computer reading.