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Tuesday, March 28, 2006

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I was musing about the same thing at lunch, and scribbled up something to that effect. By my reckoning:

(Franklin (no.5) AND Madson (no.4) AND Floyd (minor league))> (Floyd(no.5) AND (Franklin (relief) OR Madson (relief)))>>> (Franklin (no.5) AND (Madson (no.4) OR floyd (no.4) AND RicRod (relief))

(where >>> is the symbol for 'infinitely better than')

The ideal, pie in the sky solution would be to send Rodriguez back to the Rangers for Dellucci, making the end result Padilla for Delucci, which is a lot more palatable than Padilla for Rodriguez; then put Franklin in the long relief role. Of course the catch is that the Rangers are probably thrilled to be rid of Rodriguez and there isn't a snowball's chance in hell of their taking him back. Bottom line for me though is that Floyd be in the rotation and I don't have to suffer through Franklin every fifth day until the club gets tired of him getting his brains beat out. And yes, I know what kind of spring training Franklin is having. I don't care. He stinks.

Agree Michael Z. No one can convince me Franklin is better than Floyd. Franklin stinks. Again, I don't care what he's done this March. Look at this stuff and body of work. I think the best case scenario is they keep Franklin on a short leash and are ready to move Floyd into his rotation spot once he falters. Tejeda is also a better option than Franklin once he gets in pitching shape. Good news on Tomas Perez though -- as it is his time to go.

the media is getting WAY ahead of itself here with all the speculation. flopyd has had a nice couple of outings and its encouraging. however, franklin was signed as much as insurance as he was to pitch an entire year on the rotation. no reason to rush into anything, you don't mortgage your insurance on the first day. unfortunately, i haven't had time to draw a post up yet.

Madson (#4) .... Floyd (#5)

Franklin can be the long reliever ... Gillick was prepared for this. He placed incentives in Franklin's contract in the event he's doing bullpen work. If Floyd struggles ... send him back to AAA and Franklin can jump into his slot.

Floyd has better stuff and, if he's corrected himself, gives the Phils the best chance of winning.

I also say go for it, with Madson and Floyd rounding out the rotation. Get rid of Rodriguez. Keep Franklin for the mop-up and an emergency starter role. These are your best three pitchers for these open spots. I would take a chance and keep this good thing going with Floyd.

Look, Franklin pretty much does stink. But he's in the rotation. He got a fairly sizable contract, and the Phillies aren't going to waste that money on a guy who never pitches. Floyd is going back to triple A, but the good news is that Franklin and Lidle had better watch their behinds if Floyd keeps this pasce up. And similarly, Rodriguez is on the roster. You can't trade a starting pitcher and come away with nothing to show for it. Are the Phillies better for these unwanted presences? No, but there's no way around them right now.

Oh, and sending Madson back to the bullpen after all this preperation to be a starter is a *horrible* idea. I would hope they aren't even considering it. If anyone's going to be bounced to make room for Floyd, it should be one of the veterans.

Knowing that moving Madson back to the 'pen would be the worst choice, do any of us have any doubt that that is exactly what they're going to do?

I'm with GR - give floyd a bit more time in the minords, use Franklin a little bit. In truth its because as much I get worried about Tejeda's propensity to walk, I still don't want to give up on the guy in a hurry. I like the idea of tejeda in the bullpen, but swapping occasionally with franklin for starts up until trading deadline.

I think madson is safe in the rotation as well. Gillick went and got rhodes, has settled on geary etc. Franklin was only ever no. 5 - to me, all the offseason moves point to it.

I think, it should also be noted that Floyd is young, so they may be trying to avoid jerking him around too much, because it can mess with a younger pitcher's confidence, and the Phillys want him for the long haul.

Remember, no matter who is no. 5, when Wolf comes back in July, they will be out of a job.

Best case scenario: Start w/Franklin as no. 5, with Floyd in Scranton. Hopefully, Floyd dominates for a few months in AAA to build his confidence then you can call him up in late May/June. Trade Franklin to some team who's had some injuries in the rotation by that point. Then you have Wolf coming in July in the event Floyd falters. If Wolf is back in form and Floyd is pitching well, trade the weakest remaining link in the rotation (Lidle?) for bullpen help (which will be needed) before the trade deadline to make a run for the playoffs.

Aquilino Lopez was traded today for two minor leaguers. I'll update this when I get more details, but the prospects are low-level minor leaguers.

I wonder what the deal is with Aquilino ... he seems OK, but keeps getting dumped wherever he goes. This falls under the category of "The coaches know more than we do."

Also, Todd Zolecki in his podcast today said Floyd is now a serious contender for the final spot in the rotation.

worst news ever. i thought he was just reassigned? also, count on wolf for very little this year. he probably takes cormier's spot. no one pitching well is going to lose their rotation spot to wolf.

gr,

This is way down the line and alot of things can happen but this is the Phillies, of course they'll had a rotation spot to Wolf when he comes off the DL. They're all about respecting the veteran players at the expense of putting the actual best lineups on the field. They kept the atrocious Bell in the lineup when they had a much better 3B (Polanco). They keep Lieberthal around, and they'll hand a rotation spot to Wolf even if it means having to move someone to do it.

Steve, I can't really go with your premise there. Wolf is nobodies ace, but comparing Wolf against Franklin/Lidle with Bell against Polanco is quite a stretch.

Wolf is actually the only consistantly competant vet they have in the rotation aside from Lieber.

On the roster I should say, not yet in the rotation.

Aquilino Lopez dealt to the Padres for two minor leaguers (OF Matt Thayer and 3B/C Trey Johnston) per Scout.com...

Madson should definetly go back to the pen. We need a righty we can trust in there with the game on the line in the 7th or 8th. And, I'm sorry to tell everyone, but Geoff Geary is not that righty. Plus, why do the Phillies always have to wait so long to bring their prospects up. If Floyd's ready to go, give him a shot. The worst that can happen is that we find out he can't cut it. It's better to know now then find out in another year or two. And who knows, maybe he'll be good.

Floyd should start the season in AAA. If you give him the #5 spot now based on a short spring training stint, and he fails, you can probably write him off for the entire season at the major league level. And it raises biogger questions about his ability to mentally handle big-league situations.
On the other hand, if he excels at AAA, he can be brought up at the right time and place and integrated into the rotation (manage the pressure). That could be at the trade deadline, or to replace an ineffective or injured starter.

I just find it interesting that Floyd had a terrible 2005, and Franklin had a terrible 2005. Floyd has pitched well in spring training and so has Franklin. Yet somehow everyone believes Floyd will be lights-out and Franklin will suck when the season starts. Huh? Sure, Franklin has a track record that isn't so great, but on the other hand, Floyd has been hyped for a couple of seasons now and flopped miserably when he was given his opportunity.

And there is absolutely NO longterm upside to jerking around with Madson and putting back in long relief. If the guy can give you 200 effective innings, why use him for 70? As for putting Franklin in long relief, the rationale must be to limit his innings because he's so bad? Does anyone think he will suddenly be a better pitcher in relief? The last guy you want pitching in relief is a HR-prone pitcher.

If Franklin can pitch as a starter halfway effectively, then both he and Lidle have high trade value at the deadline. In a perfect world, Floyd, and/or Tejeda/Wolf can then step right in and take their places.

I do agree with the comment above about the Phillies waiting too long to give their prospects a shot, but I was thinking more of RyHo and guys like Roberson. Floyd had his shot last year and blew it. Byrd had his shot and blew it.

What it comes down to is this: not only do we owe it to Madson to put him in the starting rotation, but a middle-of-the-road SP is INFINITELY more valuable than a middle reliever who threw like Madson did out of the pen...plus, I think Madson can be better than middle-of-the-road (last I saw, 6 IP 4 hits 0 R against the Yankees playing their starters).

I'd like to see Floyd promoted immediately, but the fact is, depth is good and I don't think it'd cost us to start Floyd in AAA and Franklin in the rotation, as long as the Phillies are quick to shuffle things if necessary.

I disagree with the "waiting to long to give their prospects a shot," in its entirety. Floyd is 23, and was allowed to skip AAA before his blowup. RyHo was blocked by Thome, last year was Roberson's first decent offensive performance, Madson and Utley were given chances when they were pretty young...I have no problem with how the Phillies have managed their prospects, mostly.

Also...NOOOO! AQUALUNG!

wow, madson looks ready. george s, you have crystalized my thoughts elloquently. (see thoughts at link below).

People, do you realize what is happening here? The Phillies actually have a surfeit of starting pitchers. This is good. The bullpen might not be so hot, but isn't it better to have solid starting pitching more than solid middle relief? If Gavin Floyd's performance has been the story of the spring, Ryan Madson is right behind him. These two guys are absolute keys to the Phillies' future, never mind their present, and they have both encouraged beyond all hopes this spring. The beautiful thing about this, to me, is that everyone starting the season in the rotation is going to feel the breath down their backs if they don't perform well. It means that if Lidle or Franklin string together a parade of four-inning starts, they can say hello to the bullpen bench, or to a new clubhouse altogether.

The Phillies' starting pitching is in as good a shape going into a season since 1993. That bodes well.

Floyd should be in the rotation. Give him the shot. He's done poorly in the past, but he's ready now. They should have never signed Ryan Franklin. And come one, Ricardo Rodriguez in the bullpen?

check out this blog, and let me know what you think: http://pabaseball.blogspot.com

Perhaps they never should have signed Franklin. But they did. What do you think they're going to do now, just release him?

And while I can't believe I'm actually half-defending the Franklin signing, did anyone really suppose Floyd was going to have this kind of spring? Do you think Gillick should have counted on that? Hindsight is beautiful.

An article in the Inquirer today has Manuel being coy, but suggesting he might move Madson back to the bullpen. If the Phillies do that, I hope someone with the time and expertise is able to start up firecharliemanuel.com right away...

Fire Charlie Manuel for moving his best returning reliever from last year back into the bullpen? Yeah that's the way to go. Come on dude, there are a lot of reasons to have a problem with Manuel, like being unable to make double switches among other things, but moving Madson back to the pen should not one of them.

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