Crystal ball

Not-so far-fetched predictions from the Phillies great beyond.

This will be Pat Burrell’s last season with the Phillies.
Even though Pat the Bat has two years left on his deal after this season, Burrell would skip lukewarm Philadelphia for the sunny south as quickly as he can turn a blonde’s party dress into a crumpled pile on the floor. This guy longs for the warm weather and tan bodies of Miami U. He’s never embraced his role as team centerpiece, and never will. Where was Pat when the Winter Tour spread good cheer across the Delaware Valley? I can name $50 million good reason why at least one weekend should have been spent at a suburban shopping mall signing autographs instead of .... well, maybe not. If Burrell has another productive season, Pat Gillick will trade his right-handed slugger while his stock is still high.

Randy Wolf will replace Ryan Madson in the starting rotation.
Because Madson is brittle and the bullpen will need him. I look at Madson and see "stick" and know sticks break easily. I also see the kind of jerky delivery that frayed Wade Miller’s rotator cuff. I’m satisfied with his pitch selection, but concerned about his durability.

The Phillies will draw 500,000 more fans than last season.
Enough to make up what they lost from 2004. It can’t possibly be as stinking hot as last summer, can it? That July-August stretch was a nightmare for players and fans alike. Buff guys like Burrell looked like Olympic sprinters. Vicente Padilla appeared to shread 10 pounds of water weight every time he pitched, and that was just from his head.

But more than weather, this is an exciting product. There’s Howard, who can hit 40, Abreu and Utley, who could win the batting title, and Rowand patrolling center field like G.I. Joe. At $15 bucks for the cheapest seats, this is the best sports value in town. That's what hockey fans are bamboozled into spending to see minor-leaguers skate around the Spectrum.

Nice knowing you, Eude Brito. Don’t get comfortable, Rob Tejeda.
Brito was a one-hit wonder, and if the starting rotation stays healthy, we may not see Robinson Tejeda’s face much, either. Brito is too small to be a starter and only has value as an emergency spot-lefthander out of the bullpen. Tejeda has two major threats: Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels. If healthy, Hamels will zip right past him.

Gary Varsho will assert himself as a top managing candidate.
If Manuel’s club sinks 10 games out by the end of May, he’s toast, and the in-house answer would be Varsh, a guy many people around baseball expected to be a major-league manager by now. If the Phillies go far, expect Varsho to get interviews with other clubs.

Bobby Abreu will be just as productive, but more unpopular than ever.
Because he’s the scapegoat if the starting pitching breaks down. I don’t envy Abreu, who went from having five countrymen on his team last season to having none if Tomas Perez doesn’t come north. Meanwhile, he’s surrounded by no less than five players who are better-loved, and he’s got more talent than all of them. I see Abreu as someone who will quietly request a trade, which will come out in the papers and only make him more unpopular, even though the vocal masses wanted him traded anyway.

Pat Gillick will make a deadline deal that will make heads spin.
At 68, Gillick isn’t standing pat. He targeted the Phillies as a team damn close to a championship and pounced. He’s got the connections and respect to pull off a deal. I see Zito, Pettitte, and a batch of minor leaguers I’d drop in seconds to take a chance and go for it right now.

Comments

[MPN]

Jason: Burrell is owed ~$33 million for `07 & `08. Even if we could get a high-end arm for him, which I doubt, we'd still likely have to take on some bad contracts to achieve some financial equilibrium. It's possible, I suppose, but I'd doubt many teams would be willing to give up the type of arm needed to make this trade a smart baseball move. I think we all need to accept Pat for what he is. He's a valuable run producer who doesn't crave the spotlight. In our lefty dominated order, he's invaluable. Even when he is in slumps he gets respect from opposing pitchers.

[chris]

Man, you're the only person I know down on Madson

[Tom Goodman]

I don't think Jason is down on Madson, but the question of his stamina is a legitimate one. He wore down considerably during the second half of last season and though there are those who believe he was overused in his relief role and that starting every fifth day will be "easier" on his body, the question remains.

[gr]

"Burrell would skip lukewarm Philadelphia for the sunny south as quickly as he can turn a blonde’s party dress into a crumpled pile on the floor". i can say in all certainty that i wish i had written that. the varsho thing, i think we'd like that to happen, but i'm not seeing it. i also don't see zito or pettitte if both clubs are in the thick of the race. i think i'd rather deal for a 3B/C at this point, but maybe i'm too optimistic about the new youth movement in the starting ro.

[Billy Mac]

Interesting predictions. I like Madsen, but also have the same concerns with his over the top delivery. I prefer a more conventional 3/4 delivery. Of all of the predictions, I think the least likely is 500,000 more fans. That is 6,000 extra fans a game. Even with a strong product, with the decline in the season ticket base, that is a big increase in single game ticket sales. I don't see how this is possible. I think the most likely is Varsho getting a managerial job either with the Phils or elsewhere in 2007.

[J. Weitzel]

You're right, Mac. 500,000 is a big stretch.

[Big Unit]

Yea, and Randy Johnson, the tallest and skinniest guy in baseball, breaks down a lot too ... the starting role will be different for Madsen. And now, it appears Madsen is slotted at No. 5, with Floyd at 4 (Floyd pitches tomorrow, and Madsen Sunday.) At No. 5, he will be pitching against the worst pitchers in the league. He shold get major run support. He could wind up with the second most wins on the club (behind Lieber or Myers.)

[RickSchuBlues]

I don't think an increase of 500k is all that unlikely. People seem really ready to like this team. I don't think people really enjoy disliking them, regardless of what ol' Wags says. This team could be another 1993 waiting to happen; just as fans were boiling over the previous year, things were due to finally click. If there is a fast start, there's going to be a love-fest. Even for Abreu and Manuel.

I wouldn't worry about trading Burrell if Gillick becomes so inclined. If he traded Thome's contract - and even if it means again having to eat some of it again - he can do it with Burrell. I hope you're right, Jason, about Burrell being on his way out here. I've long since had enough of watching him; I think he is perhaps the least personable Phillie and I don't think he even fits well with a sense of moving forward which the team is otherwise starting to project.

My bet is that Wolf will be traded soon after he's healthy. Hopefully Madson will hold up as a starter, and I see your argument, but I don't believe he had injury problems as a starter in the minors.

[MPN]

Correction: Pat is owed $27 million in `07 ($13M) and `08 ($14M).

I still think he gets a bad rap, but of course individual mileage varies.

[Billy Mac]

RickSchu, A 500K increase in ticket sales is very unlikely. Last year Phils had an attendance of 2.7 Million -- an average of 33K per game. To increase to 3.2 million, they would need to average 39K per game. That would put them in the top 5 in the league in attendance with Yankees, Dodgers, Cards, and Angels. If they contend all season, I agree attendance will increase, but not 500K. 3.2 Million in 2004 had a lot to do with a new ball park. If they had a larger ballpark, they could have higher attendance as Yanks, BoSox, and fireworks games could sell 60K seats each. 3 Million fans is difficult in a 45K seat ball park. They will only average 20 to 25 K per game for non weekend games in April and May. A playoff run this year will actually have more impact on next season's attendance as your attendance is primarily driven by ticket plans.

[That Dude]

Phillies get David Delucci for Robinson Tejeda and jake Blalock.

[Adam]

Just saw that, and...um...wow. I'm sorry, but I just cannot accept this trade. Seriously, would this team be THAT much worse with Tejeda in AAA, Coste on the bench, and Blalock to boot? No! Delucci will be our 5th OF and a pinch hitter!

And, of course, this adds insult to injury: why didn't we get him in return for Vicente Padilla to begin with?!?!!?!?!

[Billy Mac]

Delucci makes your bench a bit better, but I agree the Phils gave up too much for a 32 year old pinch hitter / perhaps 4th outfielder. Delucci is useless against lefties and cannot hit anything other than a fastball. Do you give up a 24 year old power pitcher like Tejeda and a prospect for someone who will get maybe 200 ABs tops ?

[tony]

Burrel hit .281
32 HRs
117 RBis
last season.
if he was on another team you would be drooling all over him and wishing he was in Philly.
Give the man a break. He is threat at the plate and I believe will only get better.