Games, and the games in my mind

Back in May, Rob Neyer of ESPN Insider called 'games' the most underrated statistic in baseball, supplanting on-base percentage as the stat most overlooked by GMs.

Stated simply: "A great number of games tells us a great deal," Neyer wrote, "and a little number of games tells us very little."

It's a simple point, but I’m glad I remembered it because it lends expert credence to the uneasy sensation I had driving home from Allentown two nights ago.

I started thinking about the number of times Ryan Madson and Ugueth Urbina warmed up during the apex of a ballgame and wondered how I would feel seeing Aaron Fultz or Julio Santana warming up instead.

As best as I could, driving home in the dark, I tried looking ahead to next summer. I'll put it in a realistic context using the 2006 schedule: June 11, a Sunday afternoon game at RFK, final game of a four-game series, bottom of the seventh. Jon Lieber is sitting on a 3-2 lead and trying to notch a 'W' for the first time in three-straight, very-good starts.

After watching him for over a year, I’ve seen enough to recognize when Lieber is out of gas. He makes a face. It’s the same face I’m seeing now.

The inning begins with three quick pitches and he's immediately down 3-0 to Nick Johnson. The third pitch cuts high and tight on Johnson's hands, but it's over just enough to allow Johnson to lace it up the middle for a hit. Before Aaron Rowand can toss it back to the infield, Charlie Manuel is walking to the mound. Lieber accepts a soft pat on the back; Manuel will turn it over to the bullpen to preserve the win. Allowing Lieber to pitch this long had been a mistake. He doesn’t need to motion for the lefthander; he’s already in motion.

The lefthander, Fultz, had a surprisingly good season in 2005, easing into some low-pressure duty until supplanting the aging Rheal Cormier as the team’s top left-hander next to Billy Wagner.

Here in 2006, he's already pitched 31 games, most on the team and half of what he pitched all of last season. He was effective for the first two months, but was hit hard his previous two outings, charged with a blown save in Friday night's game.

The newspapers are uneasy. There’s talk of trading to acquire help for the back end of the bullpen and a growing belief the relievers won't hold out the season. Santana had been tested in the late innings but was falling out of favor. Poor control was spreading like a virus throughout the bullpen, snaring Tejeda first, then Rodriguez. Manuel was so desperate to avoid a meltdown that Cormier had been seeing action in tight spots, and was outperforming all of them.

It reminded the press of last June, when Ed Wade had finally traded Placido Polanco, sending him to Detroit for Ugueth Urbina when the same bullpen unease crept over the club.

Counting his time in Detriot, Urbina had pitched in 81 games in '05. Madson, who was now a part of the starting rotation, pitched in 78.

Together with Wagner, who collected 38 saves in 75 games, fans had a very bitter appreciation for what they had lost. Only a few months before, Wagner wasn’t worth the money it would take to resign him. Neither was Urbina, even before Venezuela. Madson’s 4.14 ERA over 78 games was seen as a significant step backward, even though nearly all the damage came in the final month of the season. It was believed he would help the team more as a starter.

I’m driving past Lehigh Valley Hospital and daydreaming about a set-up man, feeling guilty for under-emphasizing bullpen in my daily posts. Maybe I should check myself in, I thought. I'm not sure what's worse: That I'm contemplating the Phillies bullpen at 11 p.m. in December, or that I've just convinced myself that Bobby Abreu, the team's best player, should be traded for a nondescript reliever.

How do I write it, I wondered, without convincing readers I'm nuts? 

I'll write it this way: Johnson crossed home.

Comments

[Oisin]

Depressing but fair, Jason. Middle relief seems to me like the last refuge of a (slowly) drowning team.

Merry Christmas!

[Tom G]

Putting together a bullpen seems to me to be one of the toughest jobs a GM and manager and pitching coach have because performance from relief pitchers seems so inconsisent from year to year. Hopefully the Phils will catch lightning in a bottle with some of these guys.

One thing that could help the pen is having the starters go deeper into games. In '05 they came out of games in the 5th or 6th inning way too often.

[Tom Goodman]

Let's remember that the Polanco-Urbina trade was made as much to keep UU out of Florida as to land him here; i.e., there are a lot of factors that go into trades and building a bullpen. In the end, it was a shortsighted decision on multiple levels.

[Ed]

boy, having polanco at third last year (as many ppl were pleading for) instead of Bell might have gotten us the 2 games we needed to get into the playoffs.

[gr]

next time, hit the southside of bethlehem and grab some cheap beers at tally-ho with all the lehigh kids.

[el123chico]

just remember though that abreau's 2 run homer in the 3rd inning gave them that lead.

[George S]

I believe that every time you change pitchers you are rolling the dice that they will be ineffective no matter how good they are. So it makes more sense to me for a team to concentrate on getting starters that can go deep than on getting numerous arms in the bullpen that you can switch all the time.
That is why I like some of the so-called 'average' starters out there that eat lots of innings (220+). They have real value.
Let's take Jeff Weaver, a guy not highly regarded by many.
The last 2 seasons he was about a .500 pitcher (27-24 total). But he started 34 games each season, and pitched over 220 innings each season. He averaged 6.5 IP/start. Now he might have been only around .500, but you can bet that the rest of the staff benefitted from the fact that he didn't wear out their bullpen. Some of the teams' best relievers were usually available for the other starters. (Last year Derek Lowe also threw over 220 innings for LA).
Now take our old friend Vicente Padilla. Last year he averaged only 5.4 IP/start. In the course of a season he is adding about 40 IP to the bullpen over Jeff Weaver if they both start 34 games. That dilutes the effectiveness of the pen and hurts all of the starters. It might make the difference between carrying 11 pitchers and 12 pitchers, affecting your bench.
The starter in the rotation that follows Weaver is going to have a much better chance at being effectively relieved than the starter who follows Padilla because Padilla requires more pitchers (2-3) to finish his games.

That is why I always ask about the 'inning eaters' like Javier Vazquez, Doug Davis, Lowe, Weaver and a few others. You cannot judge them only by their individual stats. They have a positive impact on the performance of the pen and by extension, the other starters. They also obviously do not get hurt much, which prevents the team from giving a lot of starts to the #6 and #7 starter, adding even more relief innings. Knuckleball pitchers are also valuable for that reason..they can pitch a ton of innings (Wakefield averaged almost 7 IP/start).

That's another reason to get excited about acquiring guys like Barry Zito.

[Lake Fred]

I think I agree more with the value of "inning eaters" than relievers that appear in a lot of games. George S. makes a good argument for their value to the team. It is something I had not thought about before, but will start paying more attention to. Thanks for the thought provoking discussion.