Underrated Lofton won’t be easy to replace

Here's something worth taking away from the 2005 Phillies season: There’s a great chance of being under-appreciated if you bat second. That's the case for Kenny Lofton, who filed for free agency Nov. 2.

At the ripe old age of 38, Kenny Lofton gave the Phils everything they could have asked for as a supporting leadoff hitter. Seeing most of the starting opportunities in center, he hit .335, to go with an excellent on-base percentage (.392), pesky speed (22 stolen bases, 67 runs) and a dazzling month of September, hitting .429 with a 1.023 OPS. The only player undervalued more was the man he replaced in the lineup, Placido Polanco, the new leadoff hitter for the Tigers and a defender I'd rank in the top five among second basemen in the American League.

Lofton filed for free agency Nov. 2, making it clear he would seek full-time work elsewhere. Since then, the Phils remain quiet about their intentions in center field.

I'm very curious how the position will play out, especially with the addition of new GM Pat Gillick, who values defense. For a team that seems willing to offer the kind of deal Billy Wagner is looking for, I find it hard to believe the Phils won’t make the same kind of commitment in center field, a spot with more importance.

Without Lofton, the Phils project to fill the position with Jason Michaels, who's better in a platoon, Endy Chavez, who can’t hit, and Shane Victorino, who’s still untested at this level. As much as I like when teams catch lightning in a bottle with a scrap heap find like Victorino, there’s still tremendous risk going forward with this strategy.

The center field decision could actually define Gillick even more than Wagner and the first base situation because it’s closer to a pure baseball decision and less about the bottom line. Adding a premium defender, as he did with Devon White with Toronto, is not out of the question. With rumors swirling that Torii Hunter is on the market, I’d say the chance for this kind of deal - for an American League specialist - has improved with the hiring of Gillick. Ed Wade might have been more inclined to test a player - Victorino - he actually stole via Rule 5.

Regardless how they proceed, Lofton will be harder to replace than people think, mainly on offense. He ranked fifth on the team in runs created per game, ahead of Ryan Howard, a calculation that uses on-base percentage and total bases as primary factors. Lofton was a major reason why the Phils were second in the National League in secondary average (.285), which measures creativity reaching base and advancing runners without getting hits. Lofton was also the only player on the team who actually knew how to drop down a bunt.

If it weren’t for higher-profile holes at third base and catcher, center field would share more of the spotlight. It’s another tough choice for Gillick, who could easily go for all-out defense, or keep it on the cheap with prospects and look to fill production elsewhere.

As for Lofton, if he can assume a similar platoon role for his new team, I would expect similar results, even at age 39.

Comments

[gr]

i'm back and forth on this signing. i would love to have his production again but (a) can we expect it at 39 and (b) what does he want in terms of a contract?

[J. Weitzel]

From everything I've read on the situation, it's a longshot Lofton will be back with the Phils. It's tough to say what he will be looking for contract-wise - he may actually want more because he hit so well. I did not feel he was all that overpriced at $3 million last season, but I did hear that interest from the Phils was minimal because of his pricetag.

As for his age, I think Lofton is one of those guys with a pretty steady battery, even at 39. He is a part-time player though. It would be a risk playing him 162 games.

[Tom Goodman]

Great post, Jason.

Lofton literally did not get off on the right foot last season with his "I ain't running into any walls" comment, but in the end he did provide the Phillies with decent defense and better than average offense. But with his history it was a virtual certainty he wouldn't be back. A year in one place is about all one can expect from Lofton at this stage of his career.

The 2006 season will mark the umpteenth year in a row the Phillies have an unsettled situation in centerfield. When Marlon Byrd turned out to be a bust all of their plans fell apart. In retrospect, it may not have been such a great idea to place so much faith in Byrd's development either, but it was understandable given his performance in the minors.

The problem for the Phils is that they really have too many holes to fill. I know you have argued they are close, but I don't share that optimisim. Several weeks ago I wrote that if they acquired a frontline starter, a real ace, they could probably enter next season with the same 24 others guys currently on their roster and seriously contend. But now it appears they might have to let a corner outfielder go to get an established pitcher, and they would then need to replace two outfield positions. Throw in the closer situation, third base and catching and things look far less certain than they did at the end of 2005.

[J. Weitzel]

Good points Tom.

Admittedly, with every passing day, time to think about what they really need, or rumor that the Mets could be looking at Manny and Wagner, the Phils get farther away.

When the season ended, I would have taken the Phils over any team in the division, including Atlanta, a team that didn't impress me and was bounced easily from the playoffs. That standing could all change by April - the Phils could be closer, or in the rear view. Gillick's hand could really be forced in bullpen. Offering arbitration to Padilla seems necessary now, to give the team security as a starter or reliever. If Wagner bolts, which is likely, they will be forced to consider older players like Todd Jones or Bob Wickman.

The division might be won in the offseason.

[Tom Goodman]

Todd Jones is never coming back here.

[Brian Michael]

Yea, I don't understand why Todd Jones' name keeps coming up. Do people forget that easily? He absolutely hates this city, and we absolutely hate him, not the least of which because he was a terrible reliever.

[J. Weitzel]

OK then. Scratch Jones off the list.

[Tom G]

Just say no to Todd Jones. Last year was his last hurrah.

[Deanna]

Thome for Beltran! Then neither team has a problem with two 1B's and two CF's and can figure out what to do with their overpriced contracts later :)