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Wednesday, November 16, 2005

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think of this as a trade: if wags signs with the mets, the phils get two first round picks and his $10 million/year to spend. i'm more than comfortable with that.

I'd much rather have advanced prospects from another system, especially at the catcher position. Catchers take a long time to develop, and young catchers are at a premium.

Great point about waiting for the trade deadline and greater leverage when considering moving players with high salaries and value to contenders. I can see you are much more pessimistic about the immediate future than a month ago. I can't blame you. I love the core of Rollins, Utley, Howard, but there are simply too many holes on the mound.

Wade gambled and lost. But worse in my opinion was his failure to interpret Wagner's blasts for what they were: the first shots across the Phillies' bow. He was never coming back from the day he said they were through.

I thought at the time that Wagner should have been traded at the deadline. With Urbina and Madson in the bullpen they had reliable late-inning pitchers, so Wags was more valuable as trade bait. But at least the Phils will still get draft picks. Wade had a strange aversion to trading for prospects.

If Madson could bring a top catching prospect, I would not mind seeing him traded at all.

No way. Keep Mad Dog and get a catching prospect for Shane.

I'd do Victorino for a catching prospect in a heartbeat, but I don't think he can fetch a top catcher.

i'd rather have them too, but i'm not convinced that we would have gotten them for wags. are you saying the sox definately would have moved soppich and youklis at the deadline last year? i thought they offered arroyo and two others, not them. wade's real mistake was getting cormier for, in effect, soppich, since that's the pick we gave up. having three first round picks in one year would almost guarentee having one major leaguer on opening day '07. so, i don't necessarily think wagner is slipping away these days. granted, it may not be as good for the '06 phils.

The '06 Phils are not going to contend even for the WC with their current pitching staff, even were Wagner in the picture. Without him they are definitely not in the hunt.

Strong points, gr. I will not argue them.

On the Shoppach, Youkilis and Arroyo trade, I thought Arroyo was the guy the Sox were hung up on moving in a deal with the other two.

If you were GM, what positions would you take using three first-round picks next year? Would you go for a college closer? Straight pitching?

Tom Goodman: It's too early to count the Phils out. I don't know which team you're counting on winning the division, but the Mets, Fish and Braves all have problems of their own.

As I wrote several times, I think the Phils could have traded Wags at the deadline and still competed for the Wild Card. I think Wade et all were just to afraid of what WIP would have said if they did.

Jason: I agree the rest of the division has its problems. If the Phils pick up one good starter and retain Wagner I would change my prediction entirely. Those are big "ifs".

One other thing on the Division. The Marlins had their share of turmoil last season and will possibly be losing Juan Pierre, AJ Burnett, Jeff Conine, Juan Encarnacion, Mike Lowell and Carlos Delgado. That's a lot of talent and even if three or four of them leave there will be holes. But as long as they have Josh Beckett (if he can stay healthy) and Dontrelle Willis they have two starters who could win 40 - 45 games between them. And as long as Miguel Cabrera plies his trade in Miami, they will have one of the best hitters in the game in the every day lineup. Those three won't be enough to overcome all the potential holes, but if Delgado stays they will have two potent hitters and two potent pitchers. They are always scary.

Too early to say "scary" with the Fish. That team could be completely different next season: new manager, all the potential holes you mentioned, plus closer and bullpen. Agreed about Willis, the most underrated pitcher in baseball in my opinion. Not so much with Beckett, one of the most overrated. Give me a season start to finish without a blister.

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