The point of no return

Ed Wade’s decision to keep Billy Wagner at the trade deadline may have cost the Phillies a golden opportunity to rebuild, and soon, Wagner may slip away, too.

A year ago, I made a big stink about how the Phillies needed to get younger in certain areas, including catcher and third base. My position still stands, with added urgency.

Ed Wade, who orchestrated his decisions on the promise that the core group was good enough to win a championship, had, in turn, sacrificed long term for short term goals, signed free agents to overreaching deals, and never addressed the future by replenishing areas worn thin. For this, he was justly replaced one month ago.

Dealing Billy Wagner at the trade deadline was a golden opportunity to fetch prospects, a move I advocated for heavily. Instead, Wade moved all his chips to the center of the table and stood his ground. Boston, a team with a legitimate shot at a championship, was reported to be offering a young catcher and third baseman. Who knows what else could have been dangled; Days before the deadline, Wagner was yanked off the market, while GMs around baseball instantaneously fell to the floor laughing.

For the first time in years, the Phillies had leverage and didn’t capitalize. Today, the upper hand has been taken away. Wagner is already packed and out the door, a deal with New York nearly in hand. The Phillies have the same holes they had before, in addition to gaping new ones at closer and setup man.

Go for prospects ... at the next deadline
Expectations headed into 2006 are low, free agency offers no real hope, and most believe the current core cannot win and must be changed. If there was ever a time to get prospects, it was at the 2005 trade deadline straight up, without paying out. Today represents another good opportunity, but only if the Phils don’t have to pay out and can make a deal straight-up.

With the money saved by letting Wagner walk, I would stuff that money right back into bullpen, projecting to be their most urgent need in a few days.

However, a need to get younger at catcher and third still lingers for a second year in a row. Looking ahead to next season, I see a nice crop of free agent southpaws on the horizon, but a horrible selection at third base and catcher, David Bell and Mike Lieberthal among them.

If I’m Pat Gillick, getting young replacements at third base and catcher becomes a top priority, ranking right up there with starting pitching. Of course, the ideal would have been dealing Wagner at the deadline. It could have solved a lot of problems.

Instead of dealing a player like Bobby Abreu now and having to shell out for his contract, why not wait for another high-leverage situation at the next deadline when contenders are desperate for help? Then, the Phils would have a better chance at dumping the $28 million left on his contract - including $15 million in 2007 - and maybe get some prospects on top.

Deal I would make right now: Ryan Madson for a top catching prospect.

Comments

[gr]

think of this as a trade: if wags signs with the mets, the phils get two first round picks and his $10 million/year to spend. i'm more than comfortable with that.

[J. Weitzel]

I'd much rather have advanced prospects from another system, especially at the catcher position. Catchers take a long time to develop, and young catchers are at a premium.

[Tom Goodman]

Great point about waiting for the trade deadline and greater leverage when considering moving players with high salaries and value to contenders. I can see you are much more pessimistic about the immediate future than a month ago. I can't blame you. I love the core of Rollins, Utley, Howard, but there are simply too many holes on the mound.

Wade gambled and lost. But worse in my opinion was his failure to interpret Wagner's blasts for what they were: the first shots across the Phillies' bow. He was never coming back from the day he said they were through.

[John]

I thought at the time that Wagner should have been traded at the deadline. With Urbina and Madson in the bullpen they had reliable late-inning pitchers, so Wags was more valuable as trade bait. But at least the Phils will still get draft picks. Wade had a strange aversion to trading for prospects.

If Madson could bring a top catching prospect, I would not mind seeing him traded at all.

[Rob]

No way. Keep Mad Dog and get a catching prospect for Shane.

[J. Weitzel]

I'd do Victorino for a catching prospect in a heartbeat, but I don't think he can fetch a top catcher.

[gr]

i'd rather have them too, but i'm not convinced that we would have gotten them for wags. are you saying the sox definately would have moved soppich and youklis at the deadline last year? i thought they offered arroyo and two others, not them. wade's real mistake was getting cormier for, in effect, soppich, since that's the pick we gave up. having three first round picks in one year would almost guarentee having one major leaguer on opening day '07. so, i don't necessarily think wagner is slipping away these days. granted, it may not be as good for the '06 phils.

[Tom Goodman]

The '06 Phils are not going to contend even for the WC with their current pitching staff, even were Wagner in the picture. Without him they are definitely not in the hunt.

[J. Weitzel]

Strong points, gr. I will not argue them.

On the Shoppach, Youkilis and Arroyo trade, I thought Arroyo was the guy the Sox were hung up on moving in a deal with the other two.

If you were GM, what positions would you take using three first-round picks next year? Would you go for a college closer? Straight pitching?

[J. Weitzel]

Tom Goodman: It's too early to count the Phils out. I don't know which team you're counting on winning the division, but the Mets, Fish and Braves all have problems of their own.

[Tom G]

As I wrote several times, I think the Phils could have traded Wags at the deadline and still competed for the Wild Card. I think Wade et all were just to afraid of what WIP would have said if they did.

[Tom Goodman]

Jason: I agree the rest of the division has its problems. If the Phils pick up one good starter and retain Wagner I would change my prediction entirely. Those are big "ifs".

[Tom Goodman]

One other thing on the Division. The Marlins had their share of turmoil last season and will possibly be losing Juan Pierre, AJ Burnett, Jeff Conine, Juan Encarnacion, Mike Lowell and Carlos Delgado. That's a lot of talent and even if three or four of them leave there will be holes. But as long as they have Josh Beckett (if he can stay healthy) and Dontrelle Willis they have two starters who could win 40 - 45 games between them. And as long as Miguel Cabrera plies his trade in Miami, they will have one of the best hitters in the game in the every day lineup. Those three won't be enough to overcome all the potential holes, but if Delgado stays they will have two potent hitters and two potent pitchers. They are always scary.

[J. Weitzel]

Too early to say "scary" with the Fish. That team could be completely different next season: new manager, all the potential holes you mentioned, plus closer and bullpen. Agreed about Willis, the most underrated pitcher in baseball in my opinion. Not so much with Beckett, one of the most overrated. Give me a season start to finish without a blister.