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Monday, November 28, 2005

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I like your thoughts. Who do you think would be interested in Micheals? Toronto, Florida, Pittsburg?

Believe it or not, the Yankees, who are reportedly grumbling about missing out on getting Rowand.

Actually, the Yankees have been nibbling at him, haven't they?

I'd be amazed if we could get anything worthwhile with Michaels. If the PHILLIES don't need him, how much do other teams need him. Sure the Yankees, but they won't give up much for him. He'd be better off in a package.

ps: What do you mean by "wimp at the plate"? Out of curiosity...

Ha! Strong word, wimp, but I'm happy to defend my choice in using it. He doesn't get the bat extended. He never opens up to drive one. No homers against LHP last season is wimpy with a capital "W". For a CF, I think it's ok, but anything else, PH, LF, RF, no thanks.

I'm not sure many teams have an outfield as good as Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand and Bobby Abreu.

I think Jason meant that he doesn't have much power.

Ah, gotcha. I was imagining something like "he shies away from pitches inside" or "he refuses to bat against guys who throw over 95" or something funny like that.

the yanks have been after michaels since the end of the season and up to the rowand trade, have been told repeatedly that he wasn't available. the fact that they were asking about endy chavez last year tells me they are REALLY unhappy and desparate to replace the departed bernie williams.

i agree with ed, though, is really not going to fetch too much by himself. a decent reliever, maybe. certainly not a quality starter or anything more than a part-time positin player. he played well last year, but really struggled in '04 when marlon byrd imploded.

gotta love gillick's approach, though. he's a master at stating the favorably plausible.

News Flash - Wagner signs with Mets for 4 years, 40 mil (plus 5th year option with $3mil buy out).

I'm glad the Phillies didn't overpay for him. That's just ridiculous money.

Maybe now they'll get Wickman and Gordon.

J-Mike will end up in either NY or LA. I heard the Dodgers are asking about him plus the Yanks are high on him. Also, I think that we will see an Abreu trade at the winter meetings that will create an opening for Victorino to start probably in RF. It makes a lot of sense financially.

Just my opinion, but that's what I think.

By my calculations, and these could be wrong, the Phillies now have $67.25 million committed to 11 players plus Thome for 2006. I have also included the possible salaries for arbitration and non-free agents. The Phillies seem to have about $15 million to "play" with now that Wags has gone to the Metropolitans -- thank you Omar for the #18 and #31 picks in the amateur draft!

Numbers in millions
Wolf 9 (Final Year)
Lieber 7.25 (2007 7.5)
Lidle 3.3 (Final Year)
Cormier 2.5 (2007 3 or
.5 buyout)
Lieberthal 7.5 (Final Year)
Bell 4.5 (Final Year)
Abreu 13 (2007 15,
2008 16 or
2 buyout)
Perez .7 (2007 club
option)
Rollins 4+1 (2007-08
7+1,
2009-10
7.5)
Rowand 3.25 (2007 5 or
3.25)
Burrell 9.5 (2007 13,
2008 14)
Thome 5.5 (2007-09 5.5
per)
Total 67.25
Opening Day 06 95~
Remaining 27.75

Arbitration Eligible/non-Free Agents
Padilla 4.5?
Myers 3.5?
Utley .35
Howard .35
Fultz 1
Geary .35
Michaels 1
Madson .45
Floyd .35
Tejada .35
Brito .35
Victorino .35
Ruiz/Pratt .35/1.25
A. Lopez .45

Tom Gordon or Bob Wickman would seem to be worth our first round draft pick this year. The Padilla 8th inning experiment now also seems to be worth a shot. I also think that exploring a trade with the Dodgers for Derek Lowe and perhaps Duaner Sanchez makes a lot of sense... perhaps Bobby and either Tejada or Brito? We could also use some muscle off the bench.

Note that the Phillies might have as much as $24.8 million coming off the books in 2007 -- which could be nice depending on the free agent market/arbitration cases.

I'm not as in favor of dealing Abreu for that package, but I'm right there with you on your bullpen approach, MPN.

Experimenting with Padilla in the 8th is precisely what I had in mind. I'm undecided on the free agent options at closer, but they need to sign one of them, maybe Gordon, maybe Farnsworth. I don't know. Anything they get will be too expensive and only make me angry something better isn't already in place, so I'm resigning my position on who they should get.

I'd also like to see what this Yoel Hernandez is all about in spring training. He's been groomed as a fireball closer in our own system and has pitched well in Venezuela this fall.

What a concept: developing an in-house answer to a position that's demanding $8-10 million a season on the open market, including a $47 million contract for a pitcher with 42 career saves.

I like Padilla's stuff and all, agreed that he has the stuff to close or set-up, but......

I have serious doubts about his mental makeup. During the season, remember when somebody would make an error behind him? He would act like a petulant child on the mound and shortly thereafter would serve up a grapefruit or two. Now, can you imagine that happening in the 8th or 9th inning? We can't afford to be experimenting with him in that role in my opinion. Not next year when we will be on the verge of fielding a playoff team (hopefully).

I just don't think that they could afford a couple of losses incurred by experimentation with Padilla as a closer or set up guy. Leave the guy as a starter or trade him (better yet). The man is a classic case of million dollar arm and 10 cent mental makeup.

Let Gillick trade Abreu, I'd go for Derek Lowe, a good ground-ball pitcher. Of course, LA would have to give us somebody else decent, I don't know this Sanchez guy.

padilla as closer seems less reliable to me than urbina, and i wouldn't have been jumping at the chance to put him in that role even before his offseason escapades. i'd rather go for a FA or even give a rookie the chance...

if we're trading abreu we had better be getting some damn good players in return, and lowe just isn't that great. i'm most concerned by his increase in HR allowed this past season, which could be a big concern in CBP. i see him as at best the #3 pitcher in our rotation. trading abreu, even a possibly aging abreu, for a guy like that doesn't exactly get my heart racing, even with a decent reliever like sanchez. i know the pitchers out there aren't really marquee names, but why dump one of our biggest trade chips for a guy like lowe?

JW: Yes, I'd forgotten about Yoel, too. Good point. Plus he'll be a very cheap alternative.

Also, you may be right on the Abreu package. I keep thinking about what "fair value" might be to him. Now that we have traded Thome, Abreu's value may have actually increased because teams won't be able to lowball us. The best alternative, as I think you've pointed out in the past, might be to wait until the July trade deadline and get back a package more in our favor.

AE: Yes, his HRs may have gone up but his GB/FB ratio is still a ridiculous near 3:1.


More Hot Stove Stuff
"The Yankees talked to Philadelphia about a trade for a center fielder, not only Jason Michaels but also Bobby Abreu, just-acquired Aaron Rowand and Endy Chavez. While the Phillies will listen to offers for any of their outfielders, they seek pitching. The Yankees offered reliever Scott Proctor, but the only Yankees pitcher the Phillies like is Chien-Ming Wang, and the Yankees do not want to trade Wang."
http://www.nj.com/yankees/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/113324718996070.xml&coll=1

"And with Bigbie as a valuable chip, the Rockies are exploring trades for catchers Yorvit Torrealba and Josh Bard and will soon inquire about Philadelphia outfielder Jason Michaels, perhaps expendable with the Phillies' addition of Aaron Rowand."
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_3260486

Hi Guys - new here to this site. I am a die hard Phillie fan, but also a huge Red Barons fan. (AAA team of the Phils) I've watched all of these guys year after year. Michaels was never a star with the Barons. Though he did have some highlights. I am hoping to see him get trading. Though he was very nice and a pleasure to meet - I'd love to see him go to Toronto and play. I also want to see Victorino get a shot and getting some ABs. He was also very nice to meet this past year.

Talk to you all soon.

Brad Adams

J-Mike may be a wimp at the dish, but give him a few beers and put him outside an Old City club at 2 a.m. with a cop in front of him, and look out!

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