Beerleaguer - Phillies Blog, Baseball News, Trade Rumors & Spirits

Phillies add Julio Santana to bullpen mix

Don't make out-of-town plans for October! The Phillies have signed free agent reliever Julio Santana.

I got a little excited when I read the Phillies had signed J. Santana. Then I realized it was free agent reliever Julio who pitched with Milwaukee, not Johan, who won the 2004 Cy Young for Minnesota.

Santana agreed to an $800,000 one-year deal with performance bonuses today. Santana passed his physical late yesterday afternoon.

The 31-year-old right-hander pitched in 41 games with the Brew Crew, all in relief, going 3-5 with a 4.50 ERA. He had a pretty good stikeout to walk ratio (49/19), with an encouraging fielding-independent ERA of 3.88.

Julio, and the Phillies, will be glad to see a deeper porch in left. He’s a fly ball pitcher and allows homers to the tune of 1.3 a game last season (6 in 42 innings), right up there with the 1.5 a game Ugueth Urbina allowed.

He started last season with Triple-A Nashville (8 games, 2-0, 1.50 ERA) before having his contract purchased by the Milwaukee Brewers on April 29. He was signed by Milwaukee as a free agent on December 23, 2004, after pitching that season with the Yomiuri Giants of the Japanese League (29 G, 2-2, 1.89 ERA).

Beerleaguer doesn't care that much about Julio Santana
I'm now accepting bets on who will win the battle for the final spot in the bullpen, Santana or Aquilino Lopez. Santana does not project as a late-inning, high-pressure reliever, which is what the Phils need most. He's what I like to call a Quad-A pitcher, someone who straddles the line between Triple-A and the bigs.

At least the Phillies won't have to face him again. Last season, he held the Phillies to a .083 batting average in 3.2 innings of work, including four stikeouts.

Phillies sign free agent infielder Abraham Nunez

From a Phillies news release: Seeking to bolster the depth of the infield, Phillies Vice President and General Manager Pat Gillick today announced the signing of free agent infielder Abraham Nunez.

He signed a two-year, $3,350,000 contract that includes a club option for 2008 and performance bonuses.

"Nunez gives us some versatility in that he can play three infield positions and is a switch-hitter," said Gillick.

Nunez, 29, began last season as an extra infielder with the St. Louis Cardinals. When Scott Rolen went down with season-ending shoulder surgery, Nunez became the everyday third baseman the rest of the season and in the post-season.

He played 98 games at third base (77 starts), 22 at second and 21 at shortstop. In 139 games, Nunez hit .285 with a career-high five home runs and 44 RBI. He hit .364 with three runs scored in the Division Series against the San Diego Padres and .385 in the League Championship Series vs. the Houston Astros.

His average in late and close situations (.375) ranked fifth in the National League and he was among the top 10 with a .319 average after the sixth inning. As a pinch-hitter, Nunez batted .250. He was second on the Cardinals with six pinch-hits and tied for the most RBI, five.

The Dominican native was originally signed as an amateur free agent by Toronto in 1994. He was dealt to the Pittsburgh Pirates following his second pro season. Nunez played in the majors with the Pirates, 1997-2004, and signed as a free agent with St. Louis last January. With the Pirates in 2004, he was fourth in the National League with 62 pinch-hit at-bats.

Lifetime, he is a .248 hitter with 16 home runs and 161 RBI in 769 games.

The addition of Nunez puts the Phillies' 40-man winter roster at 37 players.

Beerleaguer take:
On the surface, this is a seemingly low-key acquisition of a utility player, until you lay out the facts surrounding third base. Only then can you realize this has the potential to grow into more than just bench help.

Nunez projects to be a more attractive, cheaper option than most of the players on the list of 2007 free agent third baseman, headed by names like Edgardo Alfonso and Pedro Feliz. In addition, there is nothing brewing on the farm but Mike Constanzo (65th pick overall in June 2005 draft), but he's years away.

As for the short term, there is reason to be modestly excited. On paper, he's an improvement over the rapidly eroding David Bell, who's under contract for one more season. Hardball Times Win Shares ranks the switch-hitting Nunez 8th best in the NL, compared to 16th for Bell. Fielding Win Shares are surprisingly high, putting him 6th in the league, below Bell, who is 2nd.

All I would ask is a repeat of 2005. With power coming from two infield positions, Nunez doesn’t need to swing a big stick or carry a full-time load. However, if his OPS sinks closer to his career mark of .640, the Phils may have wasted a draft pick. There is significant risk with this signing.

Bottom line question
Can he repeat last season? If he does, he could develop into a platoon or majority AB replacement for the man who replaced Scott Rolen. 

Extra credit reading on Bobby Abreu

If you aren't getting enough of a Phillies fix here, check out my short interview on www.mlbtraderumors.com, on the subject of the most debated star on the Phillies, Bobby Abreu.

Wags to NY: Phils join proverbial lot with CP concerns

Writing this morning on the Phillies plans now that Billy Wagner is headed to Queens, one writer called today "the first day of Pat Gillick’s plan C."

The reason why? During negotiations with Billy Wagner, if Gillick was asked if the Phillies were prepared for losing Wagner, he said the organization had a plan B.

It was later reported plan B was Orioles free agent closer B.J. Ryan, who signed with the Blue Jays for five years, $47 million, giving them the apparent "sure bet" that will lead them to the playoffs, if only in their dreams.

Ryan, by the way, has 42 career saves.

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of the Sporting News reported that 38-year-old Yankees setup man Tom Gordon is apparently Gillick’s plan C.

No matter what, plans C through Z probably deserve an F.

Beerleager take
I have yet to see solid proof that relief pitching can be bought this way. Plan B should have been in place, raised in the farm system, or found by process of evolution.

I go back to the World Champion White Sox time and again, who started the year with Shingo Takatsu, went most of the way with Dustin Hermanson, and finished up with Bobby Jenks, who played half the season in Double-A. By the end of the season, many experts were regarding their bullpen as the team strength, yet they started out with some question marks.

Is this how it works? Process of elimination? Mix of veterans and unprovens? Apparently it can.

I think back to all the veteran setup men the Phils have brought in over the last few years and it's a sad story: Todd Jones, Tim Worrell, Rheal Cormier, Mike Williams, Roberto Hernandez, even Ugueth Urbina.

It's not strictly a Phillies thing. The story is the same everywhere. This game of buying veteran relief doesn't always work the way GMs seem to think it does.

Generally speaking, about half the teams in baseball will enter 2006 with a closer they are comfortable with, the other half, including the Phils, will be taking a significant risk. Plan C, Gordon, hasn’t been a full-time closer for years. The remaining options appear to have similar gambles, including age, health or inconsistency.

I don’t know why more teams like the Phils aren’t developing in-house answers for a position that’s demanding $8-10 million on the open market.

Not that the closer business will ever be logical, or sensible.

J-Mike can be yours, if the price is right

Following the acquisition of Aaron Rowand, Phillies outfielder Jason Michaels could fall to fifth in the outfield depth chart. If the price is right, GM Pat Gillick shouldn’t hesitate in shopping him.

If the Phillies traded Jason Michaels midway through 2005, would you have noticed?

Becoming more like the Invisible Man, losing out to Kenny Lofton most games, Michaels has never quite cleared the hump toward a starting job. Believed to be an underused commodity by some - citing his high on-base percentage (.399) and good glove – a share of supporters believe he’s been unjustly jipped out of a fair shot in center field.

If I was blogging about some non-contender like Pittsburgh or Kansas City, I would settle for full-time J-Mike. But since my obsession lies with a team with a $95 million payroll - the hometown nine are fine in making him No. 10 or 11.

Entering his fifth season, and no-doubt miffed from the acquisition of Aaron Rowand - who's good enough to play all the time - Michaels should be flipped for something they could actually use. His opportunity to start in Philadelphia is finished, and his chance at decent playing time may be limited.

The good news for J-Mike - and the Phils - is he’s reportedly getting some nibbles. If that’s the case, the Phils need to get while the gettin’s good.

Frankly, I’ve seen all I need to see from J-Mike. I like his patience and I like his glove a little, but he’s a wimp at the dish and daft base runner.

Still, according to Gillick, Michaels and Victorino still factor in to the Phillies plans somehow. From Phillyburbs.com:

According to Gillick, both Jason Michaels and Shane Victorino - both considered possible starters before the Rowand deal - are still in the Phillies plans. Gillick even floated the idea of playing Burrell at first on certain days against left-handers to get Michaels playing time and give Ryan Howard a break.

Let me ask this question: Have you seen anything from the Phillies in the last two seasons that indicates they value J-Mike enough to sit Ryan Howard in his second season and move Pat Burrell out of position just to make room for him? Gillick's statement strikes of cultivating buzz for a player who should be traded.

As for that on-base percentage, the Phillies had the highest OBP in the National League last year. They can spare it, especially with all the other holes that could be filled.

For sale: Serviceable CF with good OBP. Can start or platoon. Asking 3B, P or RP, veteran or prospect, OBO.

Michaels nightcap:
How would another top pitching prospect sound in a swap for Michaels, giving the Phils three new arms before the winter meetings?

Prospect watch: Danny Sandoval, IF

Infielder Danny Sandoval will be competing for a spot on the Phillies 25-man roster this spring. Scranton Times-Tribune baseball writer Chad Jennings returns for his take on the 26-year-old prospect.    

Beer Leaguer: Chad, you did an outstanding job giving the scoop on a couple Red Barons this season, including catcher Carlos Ruiz and left-hander Eude Brito. So to pass the time here in the offseason, I was hoping to get your thoughts on 26-year-old IF Danny Sandoval, who was recently added to the 40-man roster.

In the past few seasons, I’ve seen a stat line that seems to indicate he knows how to hit, finishing this season .331/.379/.436, a very good line for a Triple-A middle infielder. Every time I check he’s hitting about .320 somewhere, and this fall, he’s hitting .323 for Pastora of the Venezuelan winter league. Aside from three at-bats in a cup of coffee with the Phils, I've never seen him play. So the question on my mind is can he field, and what role does he project to have with the Phils?

Chad Jennings: I believe it was in June when Sandoval got red hot. I don't have the stats in front of me, but it was literally something like 15 hits and 10 RBIs in six games. For that week or so, it was like watching Chase Utley all over again.

That said, Sandoval's not Chase Utley. He's not going to be a cornerstone of the organization, but I don't see why he couldn't be a role player in the big leagues. His defense is more than acceptable, though he's not as good as Nick Punto was when he was down here. He's also a nice for-average hitter and a good enough baserunner to give a spark offensively off the bench. I think he could play shortstop at the big league level, but probably not every day, and with just a little bit of work at second and third he could be a utility infielder.

Even after that torrid week, Sandoval kept hitting well enough to bat third for the Red Barons in a lot of games. The Phillies have had their eye on him for a long time -- they actually signed him a few years back only to lose him in the Rule 5 draft before he ever played a game for them -- so they'll certainly keep paying attention. Also, there's no other middle infielder in the system who's nearly as close to the big leagues as Sandoval.

Bottom line, I think you'll see him play for the Phillies at some point and he might even earn a regular role there off the bench, but I don't see him taking over for Rollins and I don't see him threatening Utley's playing time and I don't see him hitting for enough power to be an everyday third baseman. He'll get a shot, and he could do enough to stick.

Contact Chad Jennings at cjennings@timesshamrock.com.

Phillies trade Thome, $24 million to White Sox

ESPN News is reporting that the Phillies have traded first baseman Jim Thome to the Chicago White Sox for center fielder Aaron Rowand and a pair of pitching prospects.

The Phillies are reportedly sending $24 million to the White Sox, about half the money remaining on Thome's contract, the richest in club history.

The Philadelphia Inquirer is reporting that Thome has agreed to waive his no-trade clause to join the defending champs, but the deal is contingent on Thome passing a physical scheduled for Friday. Thome underwent season-ending elbow surgery in July and is currently rehabbing in Clearwater.

Beerleaguer take: What does it all mean?
If this deal comes to fruition, Pat Gillick will have upgraded outfield defense significantly while ridding the Phillies of their biggest offseason headache: the first base situation. The prospects, which weren't reported on in an earlier report on ESPN.com, only sweetens the pot. According to an anonymous baseball source quoted by the AP, those prospects are left-handed pitchers Giovany Gonzalez, Chicago's first-round pick in the 2004 amateur draft, and Daniel Haigwood.

The immediate impact from 2006 is leather. Lots of leather. According to Hardball Times Win Shares, Rowand - who has been compared with Jim Edmonds for his fearless play - was far and away the best defensive outfielder in baseball last season, better than such names as Brady Clark, Vernon Wells, Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon. Overall, adding his batting and fielding Win Shares together, he was ranked 32nd in baseball among outfielders.

The 28-year-old played 157 games last season with the world champs, all but a few in center field, hitting .270 with 13 homers and a .736 OPS. He earned $2 million last season and is expected to receive $3.25 million in 2006. Chicago has a club option for 2007 at $5 million and Rowand holds a player option for 2007 at $3.25 million.

Rowand took most of his cuts as a No. 5 hitter; the rest of the time, he saw action in the No. 3 or No. 6 hole.

Should the deal go through, it could spell the end for Jason Michaels, who would only be an expensive bench player. It will almost certainly block International League MVP Shane Victorino's path to a starting job in center field. The move could also be a prelude to GM Pat Gillick trading Bobby Abreu, in which case, Michaels could stay.

Why it's very, very good: Defense, defense, defense. Rowand is a tough, fearless defender who will give the Phils a G.I. Jim Edmonds presence in center field. With left field set to move back, Pat Burrell will need help in the outfield. And even with his "Gold Glove" on the mantle, Bobby needs help out there, too.

Why it's good: A $24 million payout takes care of half of Thome's contract. The headache is over: Ryan Howard plays his natural position, and the White Sox can worry about Thome, his back and his elbow through 2008, including an option for 2009. Rowand's 156 hits is nothing to sneeze at, and he gives the Phils more pop from the right side. At 28, he should be hitting his prime on a team that's suddenly getting a bit younger. He has some speed. Sudden jogjam of defensive center fielders creates opportunities to flip one of them out of town. The Phils are also getting two prospects with this deal, reportedly a set of pitchers.

Why it's bad: Rowand experienced a significant drop in offensive production between 2004 and 2005. In 2004 he hit .310/.361/.544 for an OPS of .905, compared to just .736 in '05. Rowand also adds more strikeouts to a lineup already loaded with them (116 last season). The Phillies did not address their biggest needs, major-league ready bullpen and starting pitching. Another good question: Where does he fit in with the lineup?

Why it could be very, very bad: If healthy, the Phils could be giving up 40 homers in Thome for a singles hitter with marginal power. Meanwhile, the Phils are putting all their chips behind Howard, who must prove he can hit left-handers and adapt to pitchers who are sure to adapt to him.

Thome trade nightcap
Thanks to everyone for their thoughtful comments in the thread below. I've been away from my computer this evening and have been wondering who these prospects were. The early report had Thome and cash for Rowand straight up. Later, the AP cited a source that said some pitching prospects were involved, and for me, that swung this trade clearly in favor of the Phils.

On some level, pitching should come from your own system, not bought for millions, and the fact that Hamels and Floyd represented all they had has been bothering me tremendously. It was a serious void they were desperate to fill, Gillick recognized it, and jumped at the opportunity. In addition, he improved defense in center field, something I thought he might pursue based on past decisions.

The Phillies are better today than they were yesterday; they are younger, they have deeper pockets and they took care of the Thome situation sooner rather than later. The latter is very important. They aren't nearly as "locked in" as many thought they would be this winter. The pieces from the Ed Wade are being disassembled one brick at a time. When was the last time a deal was made to fortify the farm system or improve defense? Granted, this situation was very different because of Howard, but it's amazing how many reports we're reading on Gillick probing the AL - teams like the White Sox, Toronto, Texas, Minnesota and Cleveland.

If the Mets want to take the easy way out and spend millions, than the Phillies need to be the ones who outsmart them with savvy baseball moves. It's time to get creative with bullpen and starting pitching. They can still win with David Bell at third and Mike Lieberthal at catcher, both playing to extend their careers beyond 2006. These are secondary holes. Focus on bullpen and starting pitching, and be especially creative in bullpen.

Final verdict
Considering the quality of the pitching prospects involved, in addition to the significant defensive upgrade in Rowand, this is a very good deal for the Phils, who are beginning to lay a younger, more dynamic foundation for 2006.

Pulse-pounding article puts Victorino in focus

I nearly choked on my lunch when I started reading this article from the Arizona Republic.

It begins: "Fewer than 72 hours after Major League Baseball announced its latest, long-overdue crackdown on performance-enhancing drugs last week, Philadelphia Phillies prospect Shane Victorino stepped into the home dugout at Hohokam Stadium in Mesa and found two officials of the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency waiting for him."

Click here to read the rest.

Thanks to the people at Baseball Think Factory for passing it along, and for the generous spike in hits.

Ex-Phils report: Bucs ink Adams for some reason

Former Phillies pitcher Terry Adams - yes, the same Terry Adams who went 0-2 with a 12.82 ERA before he was designated for assignment on May 24 - agreed to a minor league contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday.

The deal would pay him $500,000 if he pitches in the majors. For that to happen, the 32-year-old would need to arrive in better shape than he was at the start of last season, when he arrived at Clearwater looking quite rotund.

To his defense, Adams hasn’t had a bad career, including a career-best 2.65 ERA in 66 games for the ’03 Phils. He has been used in the past as both a starter and reliever. The Pirates likely view him as insurance for a bullpen thin with right-handed arms.

The odds are about a million-to-one against Adams fitting in with the Pirates youthful starting rotation, which is stocked with young guns. According to the AP, Adams will make an extra $10,000 in 2006 for pitching in 45 games, $20,000 for 50 games, $30,000 for 55 games and $40,000 for 60 games.

As a matter of fact, there’s a fair chance the Pirates will have an all-southpaw starting rotation next season if Kip Wells is dealt, Josh Fogg is non-tendered and Mark Redman is inserted back into the mix. Left-handers Zack Duke, Oliver Perez, Dave Williams and Pat Maholm all project into the starting rotation.

Meanwhile, the Phils are looking at another all-right-handed rotation.

Marlon Anderson signs two-year deal with Nats
Here’s another head-scratcher. The Washington Nationals signed former Phillies second baseman Marlon Anderson to a two-year, $1.85 million contract.

Anderson is a nice spare part for a National League team, but two years? Why?

Anderson doesn’t stick into starting lineups anymore, and at this point, it’s clear he’s just an emergency option at second and first. More appropriately, he’s a pinch-hitter. He did a servicable job subbing at second for the Mets after injuries to Kaz Matsui and Miguel Cairo, hitting .267 with 7 homers and a .708 OPS.

The Marlon Andersons of baseball are a dime a dozen. I’m not sure what Jim Bowden had in mind by signing Anderson for two years at this kind of money. He’s not worth adding beyond a season. Actually, he’s treading in minor league contract territory.

Carlos Ruiz, with all the certified trimmings

Thanksgiving means we’re over halfway to Easter, the greatest holiday in the history of the world.

Why is Easter so special? Easter means fresh beginnings, the start of spring and a time for families to reunite with their parish brothers and sisters.

And while all that is going on, I’m sitting at my mom’s kitchen table, opening stacks of baseball cards with my stepfather, Martin.

It’s the greatest tradition ever, far better than marshmallow Peeps. It goes like this: Mom maxes out her Visa card on baseball cards, and on Easter morning, we open them. And yes, it does feel great to be the luckest men on the planet.

Here are the rules: Martin and I each receive the same number of packs to be fair. Packs range in price from $1 a pack to $10 for the really good ones.

Once the Easter baskets are distributed - containing all the packs stacked in a bed of fake plastic grass - a signal is given, and we may begin opening them one at a time.

Phillies are in high demand. When one is discovered, an announcement is made to make the other person jealous. Top prospects are also at a premium. Martin goes for foreign league favorites or Julio Franco cards. I prefer the special insert cards, like random autographs or cards with pieces of authentic game jersey inside. He calls them "gimmick" cards, but I know these cards see top action among hip baseball card enthusiasts, like myself and, say, George Clooney.

Meanwhile, while we carry on our traditional Easter procession, my wife and mother sit in the next room and laugh at us, a tradition all its own.

After we savage through each pack, trades can be negotiated. Dealing a stack of Japanese players to Martin for an autographed minor league card is considered a "fair trade." And since the fantasy baseball draft would have already taken place, it’s ideal to have at least one card represent every player on your team, even if that player is Elmer Dessens.

The worst part about Easter is I need to wait 365 days until the next one. To satisfy that craving, I decided it was time for a little Thanksgiving treat. Not cranberry sauce. Not pumpkin pie. Something much better.

to: weitzelworld@yahoo.com
from: eBay

Dear Jason:
Congratulations! You have won the following item:

CARLOS RUIZ 2005 Leaf Certified Autograph RC

Sale price: $1.00
Shipping: $2.25
Total: $3.25

Scheduled to arrive Wednesday, this is shaping up to be a Turkey Day for the ages.

Aloha! Say hello to the future of center field

Starting Shane Victorino in center field is a strategy I have been quietly pulling for since the end of last season. According to a recent interview with Comcast SportsNet, that's precisely what GM Pat Gillick has in mind for the International League MVP.

It’s rare for the Phils to actually salvage production from the scrap heap, but at a position like center field, it would be a small miracle. The Phils have been desperate for a center fielder for years, and may have found their answer not by design.

At age 24, Shane Victorino is already something of an underdog. Taken in the 6th round of the June 1999 draft by the Dodgers, the Hawaiian-born speed and defense specialist switched teams not once, not twice, but three times via the Rule 5 draft. First, he went from the Los Angeles to San Diego, where saw action in 36 games for the Padres at the start of the 2003 season, but after batting .151, he was offered back to the Dodgers in June and was assigned to double-A Jacksonville. The next season, he set personal highs in homers (19) and RBIs (63) between Las Vegas (AAA) and Jacksonville.

Last winter, the Phils selected him in the Rule-5 draft as insurance at center field. Competing with incumbent Marlon Byrd for the final roster spot, the switch-hitting Victorino had a poor showing in spring training and didn’t make the 25-man roster. Under the guidelines of Rule 5, he was offered back to the Dodgers, but this time, the Dodgers refused.

The Phils kept him aboard, starting the entire season in Scranton where had a monster season, earning MVP honors for best player in the International League, hitting .310 with 18 homers. Statistically, it was his slugging percentage that jumped out most, a most-impressive .534.

When rosters were expanded Sept. 1, Victorino was brought back to the majors for the first time since 2003. Projected as speed off the bench, his role was expanded to pinch hitter and late-inning defensive replacement. He jacked his first career homer Sept. 22, a three-run shot in the ninth inning that drove a nail right through pitcher Tim Hudson and the Braves.

The coaches love his defense, and Charlie Manuel speaks highly of his all-around game and potential with the stick. There’s no reason to believe this switch-hitter can't stay hot under Cholly, who helped groom such hitters as Jim Thome and helped guide Ryan Howard’s seamless transition to the bigs. Gillick's reported confidence in Victorino also shows a willingness to trust young talent.

Today, Victorino is lacing up the cleats with Team USA in the Olympic qualifying tournament and doing exceptionally well, leading off and playing center field.

When Baseball Prospectus 2006 arrives at my house in February, Victorino will be the first name I look up. How does a 25-year-old centerfielder with a Triple-A line of .310/.377/.534, 18 HR, 17 SB project for the major leagues?

Probably better than the Ruben Mateo-ish path he was headed down last season.

Links:
Shane Victorino's major league and minor league career numbers. [Here]

Beerleaguer note: Thanks to Brian Peoples at the Philling Station and the folks at the Phillies Phan forum for planting the seed for this post.

White Sox reportedly in hot pursuit of Thome

High-ranking club officials have revealed to USA Today columnist Bob Nightengale that the White Sox have informed the Phillies that they want first baseman Jim Thome.

From yesterday's USA Today column:

"And, yes, the Phillies replied, Thome is very much available. Trading Thome would clear room for Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard.

The Phillies have several suitors for Thome, but with $43.5 remaining in his contract, they will likely have to swallow nearly half of his salary. The Phillies also realize that their offseason options could be severely limited by Thome, who has a no-trade clause.

And guess where he'd love to play next year? On the South Side of Chicago.

The White Sox believe that Thome can help bring them another World Series championship. He not only provides insurance in case free agent first baseman Paul Konerko flees for a potential five-year, $65 million contract offer from the Angels, but he becomes the finest DH in the game if Konerko returns.

White Sox GM Kenny Williams refused to confirm or deny his team's interest in Thome, but Williams vows the White Sox will be aggressive this offseason."

Beerleaguer take
Does this put the Twins in play? Does it wake up the Tigers? I see a number of glaring holes in free agency, the biggest being starting pitching and power. I have a feeling Thome will be easier to move than originally thought, especially to a team in the AL Central.

Thanks to alert reader MPN for the heads up on this story. For more from the hot stove, check out MPN's latest post in the comments thread below.

Thome in Clearwater
In related news, Todd Zoleck and Jim Salisbury of the Inquirer reported this morning that Thome is in Clearwater, Fla. on the road to recovery following elbow surgery and back problems.

Phillies trainer Jeff Cooper told assistant GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. that Thome is "in the best shape he's ever seen him as an athlete."

In addition, Zolecki writes that talks between the Phillies and free agent closer Billy Wagner are progressing and a new offer is expected.

There isn't much to take away from this story, other than Wagner is excited by some of the plans GM Pat Gillick has for the offseason.

"I got a really good vibe from him," Wagner told the Inquirer. "Me and my agent were talking afterward, and we were really upbeat about the meeting. I think he's got a game plan. I think he's wanting to do some great things. I'm excited and pumped about that.

"I like how Pat described the direction he wanted to go in. He wants to build a championship team. Not just for one year, but for many years."

Questions answered on BA chat session
Will Kimmey of Baseball America responded to two of my questions during Monday's Phillies chat session, discussing the magazine's selections for the top 10 prospects.

J. Weitzel from Reading, Pa. asks:
Q: I wasn't expecting to see Carlos Ruiz on that list due to his age (27 next season), but this is a question in regards to your best tools issue. Ruiz earned best defensive catcher in the International League, even though he spent much of the time as a DH. Are the Phils still excited about his defense, or has he taken a step back?

Will Kimmey:
A: He's a solid average defender with a good arm, feet and hands.

J. Weitzel from Reading, Pa. asks:
Q: I liked the comment you stated earlier: "So the system isn't in great shape, but the big club is winning, and is largely homegrown. I'm sure there are plenty of clubs that would trade a strong system for what the Phils have at the major league level." I agree with that, but it would be nice to have just a few more chips they can throw around in a trade. Which players do you think Gillick will shop? I see a lot of slashing outfielders, including Chris Roberson, who is not in the Top 10.

Will Kimmey:
A: I'm a sucker for praise. I think any player on this list is fair game outside of Hamels, Bourn and Golson. The problem comes in that most trades that return subtantial value are centered around power arms. Remember Wagner for Duckworth, Asacio and Buchholz? Those types in lower levels include names such as Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Kendrick and Maximino De la Cruz. You'd probably deal Mathieson to get Javy Vazquez. Redundant players such as Victorino and Roberson would be nice to trade, but how much would they really return? Looks like Jim Thome also exists as a mighty trading chip.

The point of no return

Ed Wade’s decision to keep Billy Wagner at the trade deadline may have cost the Phillies a golden opportunity to rebuild, and soon, Wagner may slip away, too.

A year ago, I made a big stink about how the Phillies needed to get younger in certain areas, including catcher and third base. My position still stands, with added urgency.

Ed Wade, who orchestrated his decisions on the promise that the core group was good enough to win a championship, had, in turn, sacrificed long term for short term goals, signed free agents to overreaching deals, and never addressed the future by replenishing areas worn thin. For this, he was justly replaced one month ago.

Dealing Billy Wagner at the trade deadline was a golden opportunity to fetch prospects, a move I advocated for heavily. Instead, Wade moved all his chips to the center of the table and stood his ground. Boston, a team with a legitimate shot at a championship, was reported to be offering a young catcher and third baseman. Who knows what else could have been dangled; Days before the deadline, Wagner was yanked off the market, while GMs around baseball instantaneously fell to the floor laughing.

For the first time in years, the Phillies had leverage and didn’t capitalize. Today, the upper hand has been taken away. Wagner is already packed and out the door, a deal with New York nearly in hand. The Phillies have the same holes they had before, in addition to gaping new ones at closer and setup man.

Go for prospects ... at the next deadline
Expectations headed into 2006 are low, free agency offers no real hope, and most believe the current core cannot win and must be changed. If there was ever a time to get prospects, it was at the 2005 trade deadline straight up, without paying out. Today represents another good opportunity, but only if the Phils don’t have to pay out and can make a deal straight-up.

With the money saved by letting Wagner walk, I would stuff that money right back into bullpen, projecting to be their most urgent need in a few days.

However, a need to get younger at catcher and third still lingers for a second year in a row. Looking ahead to next season, I see a nice crop of free agent southpaws on the horizon, but a horrible selection at third base and catcher, David Bell and Mike Lieberthal among them.

If I’m Pat Gillick, getting young replacements at third base and catcher becomes a top priority, ranking right up there with starting pitching. Of course, the ideal would have been dealing Wagner at the deadline. It could have solved a lot of problems.

Instead of dealing a player like Bobby Abreu now and having to shell out for his contract, why not wait for another high-leverage situation at the next deadline when contenders are desperate for help? Then, the Phils would have a better chance at dumping the $28 million left on his contract - including $15 million in 2007 - and maybe get some prospects on top.

Deal I would make right now: Ryan Madson for a top catching prospect.

Fool's gold

The decisions made this offseason, in regards to closer and bullpen, will either make general managers look very foolish or very brilliant.

While Pat Gillick and company head to Virginia for another round of schmoozing, the Mets are said to be prepared to make Billy Wagner an offer he cannot refuse.

If three years wasn’t enough already, the Mets are reportedly willing to extend the offer to four years. The Phils have set a figure believed to be around three years, $30 million, which, in the opinion of this site, is already too much for 34-year-old over-thrower with a history of injuries.

It takes more than just a good closer
The real fight this offseason isn't for luxury players like Billy Wagner. The fights are for relievers and set-up men like Bob Howry of the Indians, a player reported to be on the Phillies radar according to ESPN Insider.

Howry will be asking for something like a two or three year deal at about $3.5 to 4 million a season, putting many more teams in play for his services. Howry, a 32-year-old right-hander who went 7-4 with a 2.47 ERA, was the sixth-highest rated non-closer reliever according to win shares, ranking 19th overall in the reliever category.

Though he was aided by good backing defense (fielding-independent ERA of 3.12), there are some who believe he could be tested in the closer role, or at the very least, as a spot closer. He picked up three saves last season, and allowed about 0.5 homers per game, 1 homer less than Ugueth Urbina.

Adding a player like Howry is a very good strategy, and would make a good addition to virtually every team in baseball. Nearly every organization will be looking to add bullpen, including the Phillies, who could shortly see bullpen as their greatest need should Wagner sign with New York.

Without enough starters who can make it past the seventh inning, and with an offense capable of big innings, I come back to the same question over and over again: What’s the use of having a premium closer, and doesn’t a setup man become that much more important to bridge the gap?

If the Phils can’t secure a top-flight ninth-inning guy, it’s a logical strategy to go after one of the better eighth-inning guys, and use the money saved to get a less-expensive stopper, or even another set-up man and hope to catch lightning in a bottle with an experiment at closer, a la, the World Champion White Sox. In terms of Howry, I like the idea of flashing an arm at National League hitters and division rivals who my not have faced him before.

Knowing how many times Wagner warmed up and wasn't used, closer is an area I'd take a risk and go with a stopper with a smaller price tag. On the other hand, starting pitching is a commodity where I'd open the wallet, play it conservative and chase a sure bet.

Hamels named top Phils prospect by Baseball America

Despite another injury-plagued season, Cole Hamels regains Baseball America’s top spot as the best prospect in the Phillies minor league system.

Hamels, a likely bet to start 2006 in Reading, landed on the DL with back problems after a brief stint there last season.

If healthy, scouts are not ruling out a quick jump to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and eventually Philadelphia. Despite the setbacks, including a major gap in development time, the Phillies still envision Hamels as a top-of-the-rotation starter, Baseball America said. The left-hander was also named best prospect in the system in 2002.

Always an exciting moment to help get us through the winter, here is the threadbare list of the best 10 the Phils have to offer:

1. Cole Hamels, lhp
2. Greg Golson, of
3. Michael Bourn, of
4. Scott Mathieson, rhp
5. Welinson Baez, ss/3b
6. Mike Costanzo, 3b
7. Brad Harman, ss/2b
8. Tim Moss, 2b
9. Jason Jaramillo, c
10. Edgar Garcia, rhp

Noted omissions include Eastern League player of the year and Paul Owens winner Chris Roberson, along with catcher Carlos Ruiz, voted best defensive catcher in the International League.

Needless to say, two light-hitting, high-stikeout outfielders aren't what you want to round out a top three, to go along with a pitcher who can't stay healthy for an entire season.

This list, and the farm system, are as bad as advertised.

Baseball America Links:
Writer Will Kimmey will host a live chat at 2:30 p.m.
Link to the free site: Here
Subscription only for detailed coverage: Here

Beer Leaguer 2006 is coming!

My take on the last season of the Ed Wade era, the chase for the National League Wild Card, and the year that was Phillies baseball will arrive in paperback this winter!

Compiling over 350 essays, reports and game articles from this site, Beer Leaguer 2006 will guide readers through a tumultuous offseason into a rocky debut for manger Charlie Manuel. During a summer filled with ups and downs, the 2005 Phillies offered new hope for the future in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and others, leading the Phils on a exciting run that came down to the final game of the season.

In addition, Beer Leaguer 2006 offers an overview of the minor league system, related essays, and detailed statistical analysis of your favorite stars.

Beer Leaguer 2006 will offer a unique perspective on the Phillies you cannot find anywhere else, making it essential fan reading as you gear up for the Pat Gillick era and the 2006 season.

Pending last minute changes, the book will be available online in early February.

Beer Leaguer take:
How's that for a cheesy self promo?

Seriously, I can't believe it's actually happening. It's been incredibly hard work just organizing all the material. Right now, I've started page layout and I'm compiling graphics. So far, it looks like - a book! A real book!

Stay tuned.

Phillies Team Retrospective: 1985

Twenty years ago, the Phillies were a team trying to get younger from within, but were falling farther into the depths of the National League basement.

By Martin Smith / Beerleaguer senior correspondent
In the modern era of free agency, it really became tough to be a Phillies fans 20 years ago.

In 1985, the Phillies had just finished the season 75-87, 5th place, 26 games back of the NL East winning Cardinals. It was hard to believe that only two years earlier, they had won the National League. The 1983 Phils were an old team, which included Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, Tony Perez, Steve Carlton and Tug McGraw.

By 1985, they were making a go with a lineup that included a number of young players under rookie manager John Felske. For all the pop still remaining, this was a team that could not hit a baseball. They ranked second last in the league in team batting with .245. The primary reason why was an unheard of number of wiffs, striking out 1,095 times, 132 more than the next highest team.

Two homegrown bats performed well. Mike Schmidt led the team with a 277 BA and 33 homers, and young Juan Samuel hit .264, with 19 homers and stole 53 bases.

But the young players who were supposed to help rebuild from within were producing lukewarm results at best. This group included Rick Schu, Jeff Stone and the notoriously bad Steve Jeltz, who hit .189.   

What could have been
It wasn’t supposed to happen like this. The Phillies had a tremendous farm system in the early ’80s and were signing superb talent from the Dominican Republic. 

During the ’85-’86 offseason, I remember wondering what kind of team the Phils could have had if they didn't make so many bad trades of young talent. 

The following lineup is comprised entirely from homegrown talent drafted and groomed in the Phillies minor league system. Keep in mind their positions are just theoretical.

1B Julio Franco, CLE. Julio hit .288 with 183 hits. This would be one of the last years he hit under .300, culminating with the batting title in 1991.

2B Juan Samuel, PHL. Speed and power, as listed above.

SS Ryne Sandberg, CHI. Ryne was just starting on his path to a Hall of Fame career, hitting .305, 26 HRs with 54 stolen bases.

3B Mike Schmidt, PHL. Hall of Fame.

LF George Bell, TOR. Jorge, then later George with a "G", hit .275 with 28 HRs, just warming up for his AL MVP season of 1987.

CF Bob Dernier, CHI. Bobby wasn't great, but he caught the ball and stole 31 bases.

RF Lonnie Smith, KC. Lonnie was not the best at catching the ball, and 1985 was a down year, hitting .257. He hit .321 in '83 and later, .315 in '89, but Lonnie did steal 52 bases and got a World Series ring in ’85 with the Royals.

C Keith Moreland, CHI. Moreland hit .307 with 106 RBIs. In fairness, the ’85 Phils had three other young catchers, Ozzie Virgil, John Russell, and Darren Daulton.

P Kevin Gross, PHL. 15-13, 3.41 ERA.

P Charles Hudson, PHL. 8-13, 3.78 ERA.

RP Don Carmen, PHL. 9-4, 2.08 ERA

RP Mark Davis, SF. Davis went 5-12, 3.54 ERA with SF, not quite like his Cy Young season in 1989. 

So what's the point of all this?  Nothing really. Maybe to realize, once again, that it’s never easy being a Phillies’ fan. The 1985 season was not a total loss, however. On June 11, they beat the Mets 26-7.

Abreu, Wells swap in the works?

According to Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies have been talking to the Toronto Blue Jays about a deal that would send Bobby Abreu to the Blue Jays for center fielder Vernon Wells.

How’s this for prophetic: I started writing this post yesterday. When I read a day earlier that GM Pat Gillick had been talking to the Blue Jays, I began to speculate on who would interest Gillick most. Tops on my list: Vernon Wells.

As I wrote in yesterday’s post on Kenny Lofton, I thought there was a good chance Gillick would pursue a top-flight defensive specialist for center field. I thought it could have been Torii Hunter, but it appears Wells is also on his radar. While I’m not an expert on Toronto, I know enough to know Wells is a premium center fielder.

The hot stove can really roar when talking Toronto. GM J.P. Ricciardi doesn't really keep his intentions secret. He likes wheeling and dealing, and the organization, from the big club down, is brimming with possibilities, both young and old. They are a team on the rise, and a team with chips to trade.

One look at their roster finds an exciting selection of players who can help the Phillies. The Jays can offer young pitching, infield, sparkling defenders and veterans. A deal for Abreu could fetch two, three, maybe four players depending on their level of experience, but a swap for Wells might go straight up or involve some cash.

Wells would help the Phils most right off the bat. He was rumored in a deal to the Yankees for Gary Sheffield this season. Wells, who hit 28 homers and 97 RBIs and earned about $3 million, would make an exceptional fit for center field and would give the Phils more right-handed pop. Unlike Abreu, Wells is a legitimate Gold Glover, and would give Gillick a Devon White-type player he may covet.

In my mind, Abreu could get them Wells and perhaps a throw-in pitcher, which could include Ted Lilly, rumored to be coming to Philadelphia this season when Randy Wolf went on the shelf.

If Wells comes, expect either Jason Michaels, Shane Victorino or Endy Chavez to go.

In addition to Wells, among the veterans I see Ted Lilly (pitcher facing arbitration, involved in many Phils rumors), Shea Hillenbrand (1B/3B voted team MVP by teammates), Gregg Zaun (steady veteran switch-hitting defensive catcher, but old), and Orlando Hudson (perhaps the best defensive second baseman in AL). Why would they need him? Only if they're shopping both Thome and Howard - another interesting, albeit unpopular, idea, or plan on using Utley and Howard in different capacities, including Howard in right, Utley at first, or Utley in the outfield. The last option is interesting, isn't it, though Utley doesn't have much of a cannon.

Again, it would be great to get a Toronto fan to stop in to offer their take on the situation. This isn't a team I follow. I see an exciting selection of possibilities here, but tops on my list would be Wells and prospects. Abreu could fetch a handful of youngsters, some pitching, or could even go straight up for Wells. It’s the kind of move designed to shake things up, like the Podsednik for Lee deal last year. Could Wells benefit from a change of scenery? Could Abreu? The last time he wore another jersey he smoked 41 in the home run derby.

More on this later.

Underrated Lofton won’t be easy to replace

Here's something worth taking away from the 2005 Phillies season: There’s a great chance of being under-appreciated if you bat second. That's the case for Kenny Lofton, who filed for free agency Nov. 2.

At the ripe old age of 38, Kenny Lofton gave the Phils everything they could have asked for as a supporting leadoff hitter. Seeing most of the starting opportunities in center, he hit .335, to go with an excellent on-base percentage (.392), pesky speed (22 stolen bases, 67 runs) and a dazzling month of September, hitting .429 with a 1.023 OPS. The only player undervalued more was the man he replaced in the lineup, Placido Polanco, the new leadoff hitter for the Tigers and a defender I'd rank in the top five among second basemen in the American League.

Lofton filed for free agency Nov. 2, making it clear he would seek full-time work elsewhere. Since then, the Phils remain quiet about their intentions in center field.

I'm very curious how the position will play out, especially with the addition of new GM Pat Gillick, who values defense. For a team that seems willing to offer the kind of deal Billy Wagner is looking for, I find it hard to believe the Phils won’t make the same kind of commitment in center field, a spot with more importance.

Without Lofton, the Phils project to fill the position with Jason Michaels, who's better in a platoon, Endy Chavez, who can’t hit, and Shane Victorino, who’s still untested at this level. As much as I like when teams catch lightning in a bottle with a scrap heap find like Victorino, there’s still tremendous risk going forward with this strategy.

The center field decision could actually define Gillick even more than Wagner and the first base situation because it’s closer to a pure baseball decision and less about the bottom line. Adding a premium defender, as he did with Devon White with Toronto, is not out of the question. With rumors swirling that Torii Hunter is on the market, I’d say the chance for this kind of deal - for an American League specialist - has improved with the hiring of Gillick. Ed Wade might have been more inclined to test a player - Victorino - he actually stole via Rule 5.

Regardless how they proceed, Lofton will be harder to replace than people think, mainly on offense. He ranked fifth on the team in runs created per game, ahead of Ryan Howard, a calculation that uses on-base percentage and total bases as primary factors. Lofton was a major reason why the Phils were second in the National League in secondary average (.285), which measures creativity reaching base and advancing runners without getting hits. Lofton was also the only player on the team who actually knew how to drop down a bunt.

If it weren’t for higher-profile holes at third base and catcher, center field would share more of the spotlight. It’s another tough choice for Gillick, who could easily go for all-out defense, or keep it on the cheap with prospects and look to fill production elsewhere.

As for Lofton, if he can assume a similar platoon role for his new team, I would expect similar results, even at age 39.

Meet the new boss, same as my old boss

I have a strict rule against talking politics on this site, but this morning I’m making an exception.

Last night, my mother, Sandra K. Green, was elected mayor of Kutztown, Pa., defeating Republican challenger Eric A. Ely 556 to 382.

Mom, a Democrat, becomes the first female mayor in town history. By default, I attain the rank of first son of Kutztown.

Here’s small town politics for you: Mom and her opponent get along quite well inside and outside the political arena. They ran extremely positive campaigns, touting communication, listening and moving on after an embarrassing four years under the previous mayor, who was defeated in the primary.

All told, Camp Green shelled out about $800 for signs, buttons, literature and packets of Forget-Me-Not seeds to hand out at the polls. There were no commercials, and there was no mud slinging.

After the votes were tallied, Camp Green gathered at the Tavern restaurant for food and spirits. Invited guests included friends, family, and her opponent, Eric Ely, who stayed well into the night to help celebrate two classy campaigns and the democratic process at work.

Kutztown has reason to be excited this morning. Voters have spoken. They wanted positive change, and they got it.

Mom is the hardest working person I know, and I couldn’t be prouder. Speaking from experience, she did an awesome job whipping me into shape. Now, it's Kutztown's turn.

Ryan Howard: Rookie of the Year

It’s been a wonderful, remarkable two years for Ryan Howard, a journey that came full circle yesterday when he was announced as National League Rookie of the Year.

It started two Aprils ago when he smashed his first home run in Reading … and then another … then another.

Bobblehead makers were called into action immediately. As I write this, Ryan sits to the left of my keyboard, wearing his black R-Phils jersey, looking nothing like the real Ryan whatsoever.

Not that they needed anything more than 46 homers as proof, the Phils could no longer contain a man itching for big-league pitching by keeping him bottled up in Scranton. Following his record-breaking power surge, he added a hitter’s touch and patient approach, leading the International League in batting (.371), on-base percentage (.467), and slugging (.690) before his final call-up. Baseball America also named him the league’s best defensive first baseman.

Nine months after the novelty bobblehead was given out to Reading season ticket holders, the real Ryan bested Houston’s Willy Taveras and Atlanta’s Jeff Francouer in ROY voting, earning 19 of 32 first-place votes in the eyes of the Baseball Writers Association of America.

Howard hit .288 with 22 home runs and 63 RBIs in 88 games, becoming only the fourth Phillies player ever to win the award, joining Scott Rolen (1997), Richie Allen (1964) and Jack Sanford (1957).

To my eyes, Howard surpassed the front-runner Francouer on Sept. 21 against the Braves when he hit a game-winning grand slam in the 10th inning. Counting October, Howard hit 11 homers during the final month.

Howard shined in big moments, and his confidence is hard to quantify. Did you know that 16 of his homers came the first time he faced a pitcher in a game? As for the clutch, .241 with runners in scoring position is a poor indicator; I’ll take 6 homers, 1.011 OPS in situations described as “close and late.” He was also the first to get the Phils on the board a number of times, something that can't be dismissed.

This award is also a credit to his handler, manager Charlie Manuel, who made the transition seamless by shielding from too many bad mismatches against left-handed pitching. It’s hard to argue now that he should have been pushed into an outright full-time roll immediately with results this good. From his second call-up forward, Howard never slumped. In September and October, he went hitless only six times.

There is still the token goofiness common with a young slugger. Somewhere in cyberspace, there is a way to calculate how Howard’s 9-61 against left-handed pitching (.148 BA, .175 OBP, .246 SLG) stacks up against other ROY winners, in addition to his 100 Ks over 312 ABs.

He’s not your average slugger, either. Last year, he sprayed balls to all fields, hitting the majority of his homers the opposite way or to dead center. He possesses tremendous raw power. Whatever he hits explodes off his bat effortlessly. Pitchers can’t throw fastballs anywhere near the zone.

He’ll get better with experience, but his weaknesses are worth noting. He’s weak on balls inside, a product of left-handed pitching, particularly down and in, and also weaker against breaking pitches, hitting .182 against curveballs, .233 against sliders.

Simply put, he needs more work against crafty lefties and needs to work on forcing pitchers to come over the plate. Knowing Manuel, Howard will continue to see more action, but not against too many aces. It’s still a good spot to give work to a bench player and let Howard come off the pine, a tactic that worked quite well last season.

Not to find fame in another man’s misfortune, but none of this would have happened if Jim Thome hadn’t missed the entire second half with season-ending elbow surgery. I don’t see anything but an outside shot Howard won’t be the opening day first baseman. Shopping Thome to the American League, where he doesn’t need to use his problem elbow in the field, and eating a portion of his $43 million contract, remains the logical next step.

As for the future of Ryan Howard, Baseball Prospectus subscribers are anxiously awaiting some new PECOTA numbers. PECOTA uses stats to compare players of similar age, attributes and numbers to project how a player will do based on historic comparisons. Most comparable projections for Howard before 2005 included names like Sam Horn, Fernando Seguigonal, Franklin Stubbs, but also names like Derrek Lee and Carlos Delgado.

Until the numbers are published, I have a projection of my own: More bobbleheads.

Ex-Phillies catcher Russell to manage Barons

Former Phillies catcher John Russell has rejoined the organization and will manage Triple-A Scranton next season.

Russell played with the Phils from 1984-1988 and was a first round draft pick (13th overall) in 1982.

If you remember, Russell was one of eight candidates considered for the manager’s job last season, representing the token “manager in the making” selection.

Baseball America had him on their list of top managerial prospects in 1998 after leading New Britain to an 81-58 record and first-place finish in the Eastern League. He has also spent eight years managing in the Twins' Minor League system, compiling a 527-521 record, including a Pacific Coast League championship in 2002.

The 44-year-old spent the last three seasons with the Pirates as a third base coach and catching instructor. Russell replaces Gene Lamont, who will become the third base coach for Jim Leyland in Detroit.

Link: John Russell wasn't a good hitter [Baseball Reference]

Beerleaguer take:
Boy, do managers shuffle from place to place or what. The Phils now have two “prospect” managers in elevated spots in Gary Varsho and John Russell. Russell has more experience, but both men have received high marks from the press and the organization. "I am very pleased to add John Russell to our development staff," said Phillies assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle to Ken Mendal of mlb.com. "He's a significant addition for us."

Should Charlie Manuel stumble and GM Pat Gillick makes a switch, Russell and Varsho both appear to be potential in-house choices.

Penn State’s most valuable players
In case you missed it, Dear Old State rolled to an impressive 35-14 win over 14th-ranked Wisconsin yesterday in State College.

Watching it at a friend’s house, I could feel the electricity through the television set, as the record crowds have absolutely smothered visitors into submission all season. With the win, the Lions clinched an undefeated campaign at home, in no small part due to some of the best crowds ever seen at Beaver Stadium. Yesterday, a senior day crowd of 109,865 was heard in full force to give a standing-O to quarterback Michael Robinson and the rest of the graduating seniors.

After a bye, Penn State can win at least a share of the Big Ten championship and an automatic BCS berth with a victory over Michigan State.

As for Joe Paterno, the 78-year-old is making his case for coach of the year for guiding the Lions on this historic run. Instead of hanging up his Nikes after 2005 and going out on a high note like many suggest, I'd like to see JoePa stick around and oversee the continued growth of one best crops of underclassmen in the country. JoePa's vindication and Penn State's return to college football's elite ranks high among my list of all-time special sports moments. A BCS bowl is likely at this point, matching up with ... Miami? Notre Dame? Priceless.

Twins talking to Phils about Thome

Tip from Beerleaguer reader MPN: "The Twins have verified that they have had conversations with Philadelphia management regarding a possible transaction for first baseman Jim Thome, where the Phillies would have to pick up a good share of Thome's contract. The deal has a balance of $43.5 million remaining for three years." [Link: (the item is in the first paragraph, second page of this column)]

Winter league update: South America

It's "too much free time" Friday, and that means a random e-mail from my stepdad detailing the latest news from the winter leagues. Today, Martin goes in pursuit of baseball in South America. Here are some highlights.

• Starting in Venezuela, Danny Sandoval sure likes home cooking. This offseason playing in his native country, he’s hitting .362 with three homers in 12 games.

• Tomas Perez is a pretty big star there, too. He’s batting .289 with one homer in 10 games.
• L’il Endy Chavez has been big so far ... 2-6 ain’t half bad. Way to go, Endy!
• Redefining the Mendoza line: Former top Phillies prospect Anderson Machado is hitting .154. This fits right into the rest of his career highlights, like 2001 in Reading, when he hit .149. In 2003, he improved to .196. In 2005 with Colorado Springs, he batted .159, then Louisville, .138. In short stints with the Reds and Rockies, he’s hitting a combined .000. When talking about a depleted Phillies minor league system as the result of some trades, please leave Anderson Machado off that list from now on.
• According to the latest issue of Baseball America, the Phils recently signed four players from ... Brazil? Two pitchers and two outfielders. Is this a new hotbed? Hope the Phils know these guys speak Portuguese and get some more interpreters.

The best kind of PR

On public relations and other matters fans shouldn’t worry about.

Since when did people start caring more about Phillies PR than Phillies baseball?

This is a pretty recent phenomenon. Does it happen only here, or does it happen everywhere?

I work in a marketing department, and trust me, it's not exciting.

I hear and read this a lot. The Phillies don’t "connect" with fans. On talk radio, I hear it about as much as I hear commentary on actual baseball.

I have to admit, in the Philadelphia sports lexicon, I hate the word "connect" as much as I hate the word "passionate."

Here’s how you to solve the puzzle. You win. Riddle solved.

Because if it’s connecting we’re talking about, I have to admit; when I go to Citizen’s Bank Park, I feel pretty comfortable actually. Call me crazy, but that’s how I feel. My seat is good, my hot dog is good. Everything is good.

Even though I don’t know a single person who collects a check from the Phillies, I certainly wouldn’t have a problem meeting one, and maybe, making a connection with one.

Maybe we could become pen pals.

Part of the problem under Ed Wade was the baseball side of the business too often took cues from what fans wanted to see. He read too many columns, and listen to too much radio.

Under Gillick, that has to change. There has to be a separation of church and state between the baseball side and the PR side. When he hears and reads lines like " such-and-such a trade would be a PR nightmare," he should ignore it and do what’s best to produce a winner.

Let Scott Palmer and friends figure out the non-baseball side and leave baseball decisions to baseball men like Pat Gillick.

First base decision could define Gillick's legacy

A reader comment submitted this morning officially lights the hot stove.

From reader Ken: "Last nite on xm, the Delaware county daily times beat writer was interviewed and the national host and he agreed that gillick will trade howard because thome has zero value

howard should get a solid #2 starter and 3rd baseman...i did not like this but they were speaking as if it was common knowledge that phils fans want thome out/howard in but that will never happen

they talked about it at length.."

Beerleaguer take
Ryan Howard is probably the number one reason why I would consider buying a partial season ticket package for next season, but I have to admit, a deal would make sense depending who they can get in return.

Let's look at the bait dangled above: a No. 2 starter and a third baseman. A young, productive third baseman can carry them through many seasons, and a number two starter is essentially what Kevin Millwood, A.J. Burnett and Jeff Weaver are, the three pitchers considered the best starters on the free agent market.

Fans love Howard, and I love Howard. In the words of Bill Conlin, speaking on Daily News Live earlier in the season, I would be "violently opposed" to trading Howard," but ...

... but aside from Chase Utley, Howard will generate the most buzz of any player on the team. His perceived value is extremely high. He's cheap, he's young, there's no long-term baggage, and he's a star in the making. As a commodity, he has the potential to fill multiple holes on the roster, including starting pitching, which is what the Phils need most.

If Thome does indeed get them nothing, and if an opportunity opens up to get a young, all-star caliber third baseman and a starter for Howard, I would pull the trigger ... and cry myself to sleep until opening day.

Gillick may be stepping into a good situation with a good team in place, but the Howard / Thome quagmire could be the make or break move of his legacy.

Decisions like these are why GMs get paid the big bucks.

Fall ball update: Swinging and slashing outfielders

Reading outfielder and Paul Owens Award winner Chris Roberson is playing for Hermosillo in the Mexican Pacific League. After 16 games, the slashing 26-year-old is batting .250 with 2 homers.

In the Arizona Fall League, Reading teammate Michael Bourn is hitting .283, including three triples in 16 games.

The speedy duo combined for 72 stolen bases for the Double-A Phillies.

Bourn, 23, is considered one of the best defensive outfielders to ever play in Reading, while Roberson, a bit more raw in the field, broke a Reading record for hits in a season with 172. Roberson also won Eastern League player of the year.

Collectively, they like to get their hacks, combining for a ridiculously high 235 strikeouts, with Bourn leading the team with 123 wiffs. Ouch!

A friendly reminder (to myself)
The last two weeks have been the least enjoyable stretch I've had running Beerleaguer, trying to generate enough fluff on the GM hunt. I found it necessary because it was topical, there was heavy interest and the hot stove hadn't officially started.

I'm beginning to see why beat writing must totally ruin it. Who wants to write column inch on top of column inch on random, boring front office stiffs? Only space aliens, that's who.

So enough with the empty talk about Pat Gillick, Gerry Hunsicker, Theo Epstein the rest of the men I can't accurately explain. Here are the real reasons why I'm heading down to the Bank every chance I get in 2006 (and I'm not talking about the bat boy on the far right. No, wait. That's Tomas Perez, and even he's a better reason than a new GM).

Gillick will evaluate talent the old fashioned way

Experience won out as the Phillies gave the nod to Pat Gillick, a veteran candidate from the old school. 

Criticized for an alleged contempt for modern statistical thinking, Gillick counters by bringing two championships and nine postseason births to the table, earning credit for his salt of the earth talent evaluation.

During his time in Toronto, Baltimore and Seattle, Gillick sketched an intuitive blueprint to get his teams over the hump and into the postseason, which is where the Phillies find themselves stuck today and virtually every day throughout the history of the franchise.

Most notably, Gillick is credited with fixing a floundering Blue Jays organization and turning it into a world champion twice over, something we know all too well in Philadelphia. But that was 13 years ago.

At 68-years-old, the truth rings clear: This is a temporary change to avoid widespread restructuring and to further groom Ruben Amaro Jr. as the next GM.

The Phillies are known around the league for rewarding loyalty. To the Phils’ brass, installing Gillick, derided as “Stand Pat” for not executing deadline deals in Seattle during the 2002-2003 seasons, represents the best of both worlds. He’s an outsider with some hardware, which is what the fans want, but he won’t ruffle feathers, which is perfect for the front office.

Common complaints voiced on the blog front include his age, a fear that the game has passed him by, his disconnect with the area (he still lives in Toronto), and leaving teams in pretty bad shape once he decides to slog off into the sunset.

Montgomery realized Ed Wade’s time had expired, but was also aware of something else: the Phils aren’t far from the postseason. It's very close. Most of the pieces are in place, and the new GM, no matter who it would be or how he takes his coffee, would have little flexibility due to the long-term contracts, no-trade clauses, and the rest of the residue from the Ed Wade era.

Still, trades can be made, free agents can be signed and ties can be cut. Years of experience have outfitted Gillick with all the right connections to shuffle the cards and deal. He engineered a world champion in Toronto. He oversaw a 116-game-winner in Seattle, something many believed could never happen after losing Unit, Griffey and A-Rod.

Perhaps he can conjure the same magic here in Philadelphia.

Link: A closer look at Gillick (Inquirer, 11/02/05)

Pat Gillick to be named Phillies GM

The search for a new general manager has come to an end as the Phillies have selected veteran baseball man Pat Gillick. A press conference is scheduled for tomorrow to make the announcement official.

The former GM for Toronto, Seattle and Baltimore won the job over former Houston Astros general manager Gerry Hunsicker, Phillies assistant general managers Ruben Amaro Jr. and Mike Arbuckle and Cleveland Indians assistant general manager Chris Antonetti.

The 68-year-old Gillick also interviewed for the vacant GM position in Los Angeles.

His best years came with the Blue Jays, where he won five division titles and led the club to two world titles in 1992 and 1993.

Most recently, Gillick was general manager of the Seattle Mariners from 2000 to 2003, during which time the Mariners had the best record in baseball (393-255), including a record-tying 116-46 mark in 2001.

Gillick's early highlights include trading for young prospects like Fred McGriff and stars like Roberto Alomar, Joe Carter, David Cone, and Rickey Henderson. In Seattle, he found a way to replace superstars Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. This should come as a good sign for those who believe the Phillies should shake up the veteran core by trading established stars.

Considered by some to be an American League version of John Schuerholz, Gillick has guided three teams to the postseason a total of nine times, including winning teams in 16 of his last 17 full seasons.

In 2001, Baseball America named him baseball's best executive over the last 20 years.

Links:
Interview: Gillick speaks to the United States of Baseball (8/12/05)
Mariners Timeline
Seattle blogosphere issues criticism of Gillick (2/04/04)
ESPN.com article
Hardball Times on the biggest deals of all time
Dodgers miss out on veteran baseball man
Don't trade Griffey!
Baseball Think Factory DePodesta/Gillick discussion thread
Official AP story on Gillick hiring

Gillick may be moving ahead of the pack

According to a report in the Los Angeles Times, the 68-year-old candidate makes perfect sense for David Montgomery and the Phillies.

I wanted to write something on GM candidate Pat Gillick yesterday. I thought I had a beat on why the Phils were so high on him. This morning, I began to realize most people following this saga are starting to see the big picture.

Gillick would represent temporary change at the top while avoiding widespread restructuring. The team is known for running an organization built on loyalty and internal hard work. Installing Gillick, also known for keeping matters in-house, represents the best of both worlds. He’s an outsider with a proven track record, and he won’t ruffle feathers.

The Phillies realized Ed Wade’s time had expired, but they also acknowledge something few fans are willing to see: the Phils aren’t far off their primary goal: a return to the postseason and a run at a championship. Most of the pieces are in place, and the new GM will have little flexibility because of the long-term contracts, no-trade clauses, and the rest of the residue from the Ed Wade era. In two years, about the time Gillick will move one, it’s likely the team will look very much the same as it does today.

Gillick’s hiring would also mean good news for Ruben Amaro, Jr. fans. It’s likely Amaro will stay on as assistant GM and further learn the position until the next opportunity presents itself. With geriatric Gillick at the helm, it could be soon.