Starting Shane Victorino in center field is a strategy I have been quietly pulling for since the end of last season. According to a recent interview with Comcast SportsNet, that's precisely what GM Pat Gillick has in mind for the International League MVP.
It’s rare for the Phils to actually salvage production from the scrap heap, but at a position like center field, it would be a small miracle. The Phils have been desperate for a center fielder for years, and may have found their answer not by design.
At age 24, Shane Victorino is already something of an underdog. Taken in the 6th round of the June 1999 draft by the Dodgers, the Hawaiian-born speed and defense specialist switched teams not once, not twice, but three times via the Rule 5 draft. First, he went from the Los Angeles to San Diego, where saw action in 36 games for the Padres at the start of the 2003 season, but after batting .151, he was offered back to the Dodgers in June and was assigned to double-A Jacksonville. The next season, he set personal highs in homers (19) and RBIs (63) between Las Vegas (AAA) and Jacksonville.
Last winter, the Phils selected him in the Rule-5 draft as insurance at center field. Competing with incumbent Marlon Byrd for the final roster spot, the switch-hitting Victorino had a poor showing in spring training and didn’t make the 25-man roster. Under the guidelines of Rule 5, he was offered back to the Dodgers, but this time, the Dodgers refused.
The Phils kept him aboard, starting the entire season in Scranton where had a monster season, earning MVP honors for best player in the International League, hitting .310 with 18 homers. Statistically, it was his slugging percentage that jumped out most, a most-impressive .534.
When rosters were expanded Sept. 1, Victorino was brought back to the majors for the first time since 2003. Projected as speed off the bench, his role was expanded to pinch hitter and late-inning defensive replacement. He jacked his first career homer Sept. 22, a three-run shot in the ninth inning that drove a nail right through pitcher Tim Hudson and the Braves.
The coaches love his defense, and Charlie Manuel speaks highly of his all-around game and potential with the stick. There’s no reason to believe this switch-hitter can't stay hot under Cholly, who helped groom such hitters as Jim Thome and helped guide Ryan Howard’s seamless transition to the bigs. Gillick's reported confidence in Victorino also shows a willingness to trust young talent.
Today, Victorino is lacing up the cleats with Team USA in the Olympic qualifying tournament and doing exceptionally well, leading off and playing center field.
When Baseball Prospectus 2006 arrives at my house in February, Victorino will be the first name I look up. How does a 25-year-old centerfielder with a Triple-A line of .310/.377/.534, 18 HR, 17 SB project for the major leagues?
Probably better than the Ruben Mateo-ish path he was headed down last season.
Links:
Shane Victorino's major league and minor league career numbers. [Here]
Beerleaguer note: Thanks to Brian Peoples at the Philling Station and the folks at the Phillies Phan forum for planting the seed for this post.
No one does a better job of keeping us informed of the up-and-comers than you do, Jason.
Posted by: Tom Goodman | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 11:41 AM
Agree with TG. Good stuff. The price tag is also nice on Victorino. His OPS trendlines, minus Vegas, are also nice.
Posted by: MPN | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 11:59 AM
damn it jay, cut it out!
Posted by: gr | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 12:36 PM
GR: You could write something on my second choice for a morning post: a short piece on Gavin Floyd, reminding readers that he's one of the big keys to next season. After four years in the minors, it's time to see what the fourth overall pick in the 2001 draft can do.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 12:48 PM
you made the right choice, that's not nearly as compelling. his windup mechanics stink.
Posted by: gr | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 01:31 PM
If Floyd contributes in a significant way next season it will be an enormous surprise. I agree with gr and have said for a long time that his mechanics are terrible -- all upper body and all over the place. I also predict he will instigate bad blood between the Phils and whichever team he faces and hits a few batters. While most people worry about his command of his curve, I worry about his command period. I would not be surprised to see him sent down to Scranton again.
Posted by: Tom Goodman | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 02:21 PM
Call me crazy, but I'm ok with generating bad blood and hitting a few batters. One of the reasons hitters are so successful is due to pitchers inability to take command of the batters box.
Posted by: That Dude | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 02:26 PM
No doubt about it: Floyd contributed some of the most awkward, overmatched moments of the season. I agree about mechanics. He pitches like he's afraid to get hit with a line drive, and when things don't go his way, he doesn't recover.
I'd like to see him pitch every fourth or fifth day in spring training, and I want him pitching to Pratt. 2006 will be is his fifth season, and even though he's still just 23, it's time to see if he can cut it, or whether the Phils start putting the effort elsewhere. He's lucky the farm is so thin with pitching, because on another team, he would have been passed by.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 02:30 PM
spring taining is great. I hope Shane gets a good shot, and the same for Gavin and I still wonder who is Danny Sandoval. This guy has hit well in the minors the last 2 years, and always hits well in Venezuela in the winter. He out hits Tomas Perez in his home country. Can he field? Is Tomas Montgomery's favorite player as I have heard?
Posted by: martin | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 03:09 PM
just so you know, i wrote my post and then checked your blog on purpose so as not to deter me. there's a alot happening at work and possibly in my career, so my research time has been thin lately -- i've turned into a bargain-basement oped columnist.
on the subject of floyd, he's almost certainly either going to start at AAA or in the bullpen, if he can somehow magically handle the later. if madsen is moved to the start ro, they've only got one spot left and i would bet that its filled through trade. only exception would be if madsen (or floyd himself, of course) gets dealt. i can't see lieber, myers, or lidle getting dealt.
Posted by: gr | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 03:23 PM
I'm looking forward to a nice spring training battle between Madson and Floyd for a spot in the rotation. It's not going to help the team by handing it to Madson without a fight. Floyd, despite his ups and downs last season, spent 90 pecent of it as a starter, Madson 100 percent as a reliever.
I think most fans, and Billy Wagner, are expecting Madson to round out the rotation, but if I'm the Phillies, that spot needs to be earned in Clearwater. Actually, its worth pulling for Floyd because the Phils won't need to replace Madson in the bullpen. Floyd is not a reliever.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 03:39 PM
question: who was the last world series winner without a left-handed starter in its big five? i don't know, i'm curious if anyone does before i start the research.
Posted by: gr | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 05:00 PM
Part of the reason you would have a hard time finding a World Series winner without a lefthanded starter is that everyone believes you have to have one. They add one whether or not it is really necessary. Personally, I think it is a luxury, and it helps to have the ball come from the other side every so often, but not necessary.
Posted by: Tom G | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 06:37 PM
Malos Osos De las Noticias
From Phillies.com
"In Puerto Rico, prospect Gavin Floyd is looking to regroup from a subpar 2005 season and claim a spot in Philadelphia's starting rotation. The right-hander, who had a 6.16 ERA in 24 appearances at Scranton, has a 7.50 ERA is two starts for Arecibo.
The Phillies will be watching Floyd closely.
"Winter ball is going to be important to him," said assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle. "If he's going to be a realistic candidate for the rotation, he needs to show everyone that he's on a positive track. That's one of the primary reasons we wanted him to go, for his development and to show us that he's ready."
I hope that Saturday gem in St. Louis was not the best we've seen from Gavin.
Also:
"An intriguing name here is catcher Carlos Ruiz, who has continued his hot second-half hitting at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre with a fine start for Licey. He's hitting. 323 through 31 at-bats, and could wind up as Philadelphia's backup catcher next season."
Buenas Noticias
"Yoel Hernandez has gotten off to a good start in his quest to secure a spot in the Phillies bullpen, as the right-hander has made winter ball look easy.
Hernandez already has seven saves in 12 appearances for the Zulia Aguilas of the Venezualan Winter League, and a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings through Nov. 16. He's also struck out 13 against just two walks."
http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051118&content_id=1270055&vkey=news_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi
Posted by: MPN | Friday, November 18, 2005 at 09:08 PM
re: last world series winner - the 2004 boston red sox. martinez, schilling, lowe, wakefield, arroyo are all righties. according to baseball-reference, they only had one game started by a lefty all year - 21-year old abe alvarez.
before them it was a team i'm sure we all remember - the 1993 toronto blue jays. al leiter did start 12 games for them in his first real season in baseball, but he was used mostly as a reliever and didn't start a game in the postseason.
Posted by: ae | Saturday, November 19, 2005 at 02:54 AM
thanks, ae. forgot about last year. they did have a knuckleballer, so that's kind of like the right-handed version of a left-hander (what?). boy, what has happened to gavin floyd.
Posted by: gr | Saturday, November 19, 2005 at 01:30 PM