Abreu, Wells swap in the works?

According to Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies have been talking to the Toronto Blue Jays about a deal that would send Bobby Abreu to the Blue Jays for center fielder Vernon Wells.

How’s this for prophetic: I started writing this post yesterday. When I read a day earlier that GM Pat Gillick had been talking to the Blue Jays, I began to speculate on who would interest Gillick most. Tops on my list: Vernon Wells.

As I wrote in yesterday’s post on Kenny Lofton, I thought there was a good chance Gillick would pursue a top-flight defensive specialist for center field. I thought it could have been Torii Hunter, but it appears Wells is also on his radar. While I’m not an expert on Toronto, I know enough to know Wells is a premium center fielder.

The hot stove can really roar when talking Toronto. GM J.P. Ricciardi doesn't really keep his intentions secret. He likes wheeling and dealing, and the organization, from the big club down, is brimming with possibilities, both young and old. They are a team on the rise, and a team with chips to trade.

One look at their roster finds an exciting selection of players who can help the Phillies. The Jays can offer young pitching, infield, sparkling defenders and veterans. A deal for Abreu could fetch two, three, maybe four players depending on their level of experience, but a swap for Wells might go straight up or involve some cash.

Wells would help the Phils most right off the bat. He was rumored in a deal to the Yankees for Gary Sheffield this season. Wells, who hit 28 homers and 97 RBIs and earned about $3 million, would make an exceptional fit for center field and would give the Phils more right-handed pop. Unlike Abreu, Wells is a legitimate Gold Glover, and would give Gillick a Devon White-type player he may covet.

In my mind, Abreu could get them Wells and perhaps a throw-in pitcher, which could include Ted Lilly, rumored to be coming to Philadelphia this season when Randy Wolf went on the shelf.

If Wells comes, expect either Jason Michaels, Shane Victorino or Endy Chavez to go.

In addition to Wells, among the veterans I see Ted Lilly (pitcher facing arbitration, involved in many Phils rumors), Shea Hillenbrand (1B/3B voted team MVP by teammates), Gregg Zaun (steady veteran switch-hitting defensive catcher, but old), and Orlando Hudson (perhaps the best defensive second baseman in AL). Why would they need him? Only if they're shopping both Thome and Howard - another interesting, albeit unpopular, idea, or plan on using Utley and Howard in different capacities, including Howard in right, Utley at first, or Utley in the outfield. The last option is interesting, isn't it, though Utley doesn't have much of a cannon.

Again, it would be great to get a Toronto fan to stop in to offer their take on the situation. This isn't a team I follow. I see an exciting selection of possibilities here, but tops on my list would be Wells and prospects. Abreu could fetch a handful of youngsters, some pitching, or could even go straight up for Wells. It’s the kind of move designed to shake things up, like the Podsednik for Lee deal last year. Could Wells benefit from a change of scenery? Could Abreu? The last time he wore another jersey he smoked 41 in the home run derby.

More on this later.

Comments

[MPN]

JW: The Toronto Star is reporting:

"Despite all the rumours, two players not coming to Toronto are Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Bobby Abreu and pitcher Jeremy Affeldt — or any of his teammates — from the Kansas City Royals. Ricciardi did hold talks with the Phils, but ruled out Abreu because his salary "is an exorbitant amount of money for us.'' As for the Royals: "We don't see a match with Kansas City in any way, shape or form.''"
http://tinyurl.com/9hl4m

This is interesting, however, because The Jays have $160 mil (US) burning holes in their pockets over the next two years because they were able to buy the bankrupt SkyDome and pocket the extra revenue.

I agree that Wells would be a sweet addition, but his .330 career OBP is a concern -- my same concern with Torii Hunter whose OBP is even lower. Of course, if the lineup is constructed something like: Rollins, Victorino/Michaels, Utley, Burrell, Howard... 28/97 would be a pretty sweet bat to have in the 6 hole.

All of the above said, JP may just be chirping about Bobby's salary in order to drive down the Fightin's asking price.

[enrico]

I was skeptical of this deal (see my coment at Tom G's.), but reading this post just sold me. Maybe I'm an easy sell.

[J. Weitzel]

It's interesting to say the least. A great center fielder is something they haven't had since Lenny. They would be giving up premium production in Abreu. It would be tough to replace that offensively.

[Don Eminizer]

Caveat Emptor, my friends...Vernon Wells has talent, but is notorious for lazy habbits. He was even sat last year during a game against the Orioles for lackadaisickaly retrieving a routine ground ball single which Miguel Tejada turned into a double. Tejada ran from the box because the team knew how he acts incenter... He can make the spectacular play, but miss routine stuff, he can hit the long ball, but fails to move guys over when you need it...

[That Dude]

Arent Wells knees bad as well? Ditto on the lazy piece and the poor OBP. I dont think you want to reduce OBP that much for the guy who would surround RyHo in the lineup.

[Tim]

Well, it would open up a spot for Manny Ramirez... Wishful thinking?

[J. Weitzel]

Update: I asked Phil Sheridan of the Inquirer what he thought of a potential deal for Abreu and he responded in his Q&A (Thanks, Phil, for the nice plug!):

http://www.philly.com:80/mld/philly/sports/columnists/phil_sheridan/qa_forum.htm?forumId=1739

[Casey]

Using the Hardball Times metric, Wells was 3 win shares better than Abreu in the field this year, but Abreu was 10 better at the plate. Abreu's OBP was a full 85 points better than Wells'. And when Abreu did get on base this year, he was an efficient 78% base stealer with 31. Wells stole 8 of 11, which isn't bad, but isn't much.

A 2003 Vernon Wells would be great, but now that seems more like he experienced a temporary power spike. He is entering his age-27 season, though, so he may have yet to show some of that upside.

If Toronto would take Abreu's contract in full, it might make sense. Both players have contracts through 2007 (Abreu has a team option for '08), but Wells' $10m over the next two years is $16m cheaper than Abreu, which is almost enough for one year of Manny needing Money. :)

[Tom Goodman]

MPN's comments send up several red flags regarding Wells.

[Drew W.]

I think this is a deal the Phillies should make if they can. Wells is slightly worse than Abreu but him locking up center field would give the Phils a luxury they really haven't had since Nails. There are plenty of corner OFs with power, Abreu is one of the better ones but the lefthandedness in this lineup HAS to be addressed and he is the best option to trade. Even if the Phils eat $5 million of Abreu's contract, adding Wells' salary of $4.3 million still puts the Phillies at +$4 million. That's money that you can use to possibly sign Burnett or use it in a trade involving Thome to acquire a starter. This deal makes a whole lot of sense especially if Gillick can find a definite destination for Thome.

[john saul]

i feel that moven thome would solve the big ? .they to sign a big time picthernot a outfeilder your two allstar now in right and left and young talent ready to moveup go forthe big time picture, dont make a trade for a broken player again

[don eminizer]

I just saw a report on ESPN that said Toronto nixed this deal anyway, don't know of it's veracity though.

[Adam]

As a more than casual Toronto fan, I know that it is very unlikely that this deal would come to pass. The Blue Jays need someone to supplement Wells in the lineup, not substitute for him. He's an inexpenive option in center who has more offensive prowess than the majority of center fielders, and he just won another gold glove.

Hudson, Hillenbrand, and Zaun are also mentioned as trade bait. Hudson is a definite possibility, but aren't the Phillies committed to Utley there? If not, I could see the Jays be willing to give up Hudson, Dave Bush, and Alex Rios for Abreau, but I would be very surprised if Philadelphia would go for it.

[Cameron Bouchard]

the abreu and wells trade is BS abreu is a old player thats not that great and wells is one of the best young center fielders, i think utley for hillendbrand would be a good swap because utley has potental